2019 Training: A Macro View
So it's a bit of a "cart before the horse" scenario. I'm not 100% confident returning to running will work out ok. But I keep reminding myself I was still averaging 40 miles per week and finished the Chicago marathon. So once this cold snap ends, I should be ready to go here in mid-February. But that aside, I've been working on the Macro view of the training cycle between now and leading into the 2020 Disney marathon.
I had previously mentioned/sketched my plans:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/t...mments-welcome.3475601/page-275#post-60066641
So since I had that and a general idea what the Training Stress Scores would be (from a zoomed out more global sense), then I could come up with a general sketch of what that future training would look like when it comes to my actual marathon training.
So since just before late November, I've been using TrainerRoad + Wahoo Kickr Core (indoor bike trainer) as a structured cycling routine. In mid-December, I added 80DO to the routine.
This graph represents "Form" or the difference between "Fitness" and "Fatigue". Fitness being the long term training load and Fatigue being the short term training load. Fitness builds/disappears slowly, and Fatigue builds/disappears rapidly. Ideally, you spend more time in "optimal training" which occurs when Form is -30 to -10.
I'd say overall from a training load standpoint, the training has been really well balanced. Of the 68 days since I've started, I've been in optimal training for 51 of them (75%). So what I wanted to see is what my projected future training load looked like based on my rough ideas as to what I planned to do coming up (emphasis on rough as there will definitely be more ebb and flow to the real data, but the general trend should match up).
So I have two races written in pencil; BratFest 5k on 5/25 and Hot2Trot HM on 6/16. As you can see, the remainder of the training load between now and the HM is still fairly well balanced. About 71% of the remaining days in training will be spent in optimal training, and only right before the races do we spend any significant time outside of optimal. You can tell the difference between the "real data" (towards the left of the graph) and "projected data" (towards the right of the graph) based on the smoothness of the curve.
So then, after the Hot2Trot HM I planned to take 2 weeks off and really back off the training. The biking, 80DO, and running training would all reduce. Then, after that I planned to jump into either "Half Tri" or "Full Tri" training using a combination of TrainerRoad and my own running philosophies (although skimming through their plan they seem to be on a similar page as to running duration caps).
But starting in mid-September, you see the problem. I'll spend little to no time in "optimal training" anymore. It's almost exclusively in training load stalemate "neutral". This looks a heck of a lot like past situations I've put myself in when I ramped/peaked too quickly and had too little of room to grow in my training. Thus leaving me well trained come race day, but probably a few weeks past "peak" and more towards the grinding phase. So I did my best to come up with a solution that might help reduce this. Since the goal is 2020 Marathon Weekend, I wanted to put myself in a position where more "optimal" time spent training was closer to that race itself.
I managed to come up with this mathematically based plan based on a 6-week reduction in training post-Hot2Trot HM. Way more time spent in optimal during the crucial training months.
The other option was going with a nine-week break:
Again, way more time spent in optimal.
At the end of the day, the "Fitness" or long term training load, is nearly the same in all three scenarios (2 weeks, 6 weeks, and 9 weeks off) at 112.2, 110.8, and 110.3 with all three following the exact same training plan for the last 16 weeks. So to me, that screams take more time off because the end level training load is going to be so similar across the board. But the amount of time spent in optimal is dramatically different in the last 16 weeks of training (from 9/22/19 through 1/12/20).
Training options and time spent in optimal training during last 16 weeks, but not including the three week taper
2 weeks "off" = 5/92 (5%)
6 weeks "off" = 66/92 (72%)
9 weeks "off" = 87/92 (95%)
Maybe since the training during that time period of 6-9 weeks is down, I'll just do some races with no real goal. Just race for experience. It's the middle of summer (6/16-8/17), but I'm sure I can find some things do.
What do you think?