Paid FP options coming soon to WDW?

[cmwade77]

I'd be applauding it if I believed it would make a noticeable positive difference, but I'm not convinced of that. Now, my perception could be off, but I don't think that the FP lines at Disney are much longer/shorter waits (in terms of 5 of time saved as opposed to the regular line) than the EP lines at Universal. I feel like they both save you about the same amount of time. So I don't know why/how WDW implementing a Universal style FP system would make the lines any better.

Mind you, we avoid going during the really, really busy times of year, so perhaps during those times Universal's system really is faster than Disney's?? If that's the case then I understand why others see things differently than I do.

Yep, I don't see how it would make any difference either and as I said before, it I clear this rumor has no real traction and that is because it is most likely false, aside from the slight possibility that guests might be able to buy into a slightly earlier booking window.

 

[snappy]

Nope, you are gambling that a company or group of companies will do well, you don't know if they will or not. You certainly hope they will, but it really isn't much different than betting on a horse at a race track, the risk of loosing all of your money is still quite real, although you might be able to pull out from stocks before loosing everything, but not always.

Investing in one single stock or having your employer’s 401K contributions and/or your employer’s match solely in the stock of your employer or investing more than a small % in a time share or any other single asset class is a gamble. Likewise having 100 percent of your retirement savings in one or just a couple stock or bond funds. A portion of your assets in a long-standing S&P fund while the rest of your assets are diversified is not.

 

[Shughart]

We are a family of four who goes to DW for roughly 17 days each summer trip. At $50 per day, per person, it would cost us $3400 for fp's that are easy to get and free right now. No time saved and way too much money for us.

You are not the typical Disney vacationer though. Most families have a week or less. Less vacation time means every hour counts and when every hour counts time is money and most of us are willing to put down some $$ to get in some of the bigger rides we wanted to get in in our short time. If I could afford SEVENTEEN days in Disney, I would either have the money to pay for some fast passes or some time to wait standby in lines

 

[DavidNYC]

You are not the typical Disney vacationer though. Most families have a week or less. Less vacation time means every hour counts and when every hour counts time is money and most of us are willing to put down some $$ to get in some of the bigger rides we wanted to get in in our short time. If I could afford SEVENTEEN days in Disney, I would either have the money to pay for some fast passes or some time to wait standby in lines

The problem with asserting that “most” people will pay is that this is a zero sum game. You cannot create more ride capacity based on who pays. For every person willing to pay you’ve taken an opportunity away from someone else. When it’s done on a limited basis like club level - it’s not felt enough to make a difference. If “most” do it - you’ve now upset the whole system. The capacity is the capacity - too many people pay the system can’t provide what they’re paying for while at the same time severley decreasing the experience of the remaining guests. I cannot think of any logical way this can be done on a scale the way some are suggesting and have it actually work. The numbers don’t add up.

 

[Disneylover99]

You are not the typical Disney vacationer though. Most families have a week or less. Less vacation time means every hour counts and when every hour counts time is money and most of us are willing to put down some $$ to get in some of the bigger rides we wanted to get in in our short time. If I could afford SEVENTEEN days in Disney, I would either have the money to pay for some fast passes or some time to wait standby in lines

I agree. I’m not the typical Disney vacationer. I definitely have the time to wait in standby lines, but why would I want to when I don’t have to do that now? Why would anyone want that? Even if we only stayed for four nights, do I really want to pay an extra $800 for fp’s I can get for free now? Book your 3 initial fp’s and use refresh to get extra fp’s. Rope drop the rides you can’t get fp’s for or go late in the evening. It seems simple enough to me.

As for affordability, if you’re a family of four who stays in a value resort with quick service free dining for two weeks and 10 day tickets with waterparks, it’s fairly affordable. The point is, that $3400 in fp’s that was previously free is going to cost me close to what I’d be paying for my entire trip.

 

[CAL2]

A previous poster already gave you a great explanation, but if I may. FPs, unlike room rates or the parking fee are a bit trickier. I know there were those who were grandfathered in with the resort parking fee when that started last year. If you booked your ressie before Mar, 21, 2018 you were good. Same thing goes for a room ressie or tickets. If you purchase those before they increase the rates, then you are good to go. Unfortunately, if you purchase at a higher rate and it goes down afterwards, Disney will not give you the difference. FP, because of how they are booked wouldn't apply to this. There was some talk of this rolling out in May of this year, so I would assume anyone who already booked their FPs would be good in that regards. However, if they wanted more while at the park, they would have to pay. Everyone else who needed FPs after May was just going to have to pay. I've read now, where this is not something that can or will happen in May, but probably more closer to when SWGE opens. Luckily, my family doesn't go to Disney often, even though we are FL residents. Paid FPs won't stop me from going to Disney, it's just an extra expense that I'll have to put into our Disney budget on our next trip 3 or 4 years from now. We are going in a couple of months, so I'm going to enjoy the FP+ system in place now!

As I said everyone has a cut off point, for me this is probably it as its just another cost to factor in and at some point the cost is no longer justifiable. In the UK we often have different deals so it will be interesting to see what happens. I'm looking to book in April for our 2020 holiday so we will see what happens.

 

[mom2rtk]

The problem with asserting that “most” people will pay is that this is a zero sum game. You cannot create more ride capacity based on who pays. For every person willing to pay you’ve taken an opportunity away from someone else. When it’s done on a limited basis like club level - it’s not felt enough to make a difference. If “most” do it - you’ve now upset the whole system. The capacity is the capacity - too many people pay the system can’t provide what they’re paying for while at the same time severley decreasing the experience of the remaining guests. I cannot think of any logical way this can be done on a scale the way some are suggesting and have it actually work. The numbers don’t add up.

I absolutely agree.

 

[jade1]

While this is true the time value of money is often neglected, but your comment relies on the $10,000 (or future investable income) not being spent on vacation, which is unlikely as most people do vacation. Also the S&P500 only has had a cumulative total return of 322% since 1/1/1999 so that person would only have $32,000 now, which is much less than your quoted amount. The average yearly total return (assuming dividends are reinvested) of the SP 500 has been 8.8% since 1950, which has 2001 crash and 2008 crash but does ignore the Great Recession.

There is some theoretical point that a DVC owner will be able to "vacation for free" but that is simply because the Return on Capital is much higher for a corporation than an individual, which is how both sides on paper make money. Of course all under a set of market assumptions. Just the early buyers had a great market DVC direct costs have skyrocketed above inflation leaving their contracts valuable on the resale market and rooms at Disney have risen well above inflation.

Though you are correct, opportunity costs should be considered during the analysis along with future vacation plans. There are some great spreadsheets made by others that do exactly what you suggest look at the opportunity cost of the initial investment. The bigger question is can a person afford X per year to vacation at WDW or will they want to do that. I think that is often something people over look. DVC forums on DIS are quote brutally honest on their opinions what is good for some isn't good for all buyers.

I'm simply using your 20 year S&P investment example. I disagree it would be $170K.

20 year BWV stay would cost app $0, BWI 20 year stay (instead putting 10K in S&P) would cost $53,000 ($84K-$31K).

Not only that, but I can now put $3,200 each year into the S&P for the next 20 years ($64,000 resulting in well over $100K) that a cash payer can't. $4,200 for the room each year cash, or $1,000 each year in dues.


The last reported 20 year period on $10K put into the SP was 1996 to 2016, you would have $31,000.

$10,000 into BWV (about 200 points or 2 weeks a year in a studio) at the time would now be worth close to the same ($30K) in resale value.

The only real difference is the BWV owner would have dumped in about another $20,000 in dues. $30K total.

The closest apples to apples would be staying at BWI for 20 years for 2 weeks at app $300 a night or $84,000.

The $31,000 comes right off the $84K, so that only cost $53,000 to stay on cash.

But the BWV owner can sell and recover all of the purchase and dues paid, and if they wanted-dumped the $3,200 savings each year into the S&P on top of it.

 

[jade1]

I'm simply using your 20 year S&P investment example. I disagree it would be $170K.

20 year BWV stay would cost app $0, BWI 20 year stay (instead putting 10K in S&P) would cost $53,000 ($84K-$31K).


The last reported 20 year period on $10K put into the SP was 1996 to 2016, you would have $31,000.

$10,000 into BWV (about 200 points or 2 weeks a year in a studio) at the time would now be worth close to the same ($30K) in resale value.

The only real difference is the BWV owner would have dumped in about another $20,000 in dues. $30K total.

The closest apples to apples would be staying at BWI for 20 years for 2 weeks at app $300 a night or $84,000.

The $31,000 comes right off the $84K, so that only cost $53,000 to stay on cash.

But the BWV owner can sell and recover all of the purchase and dues paid.

I'm really just pointing out that everybody has a different budget to use towards WDW.

That can include budget for FP+ (or party's etc) as this is the thread discussed.

And again, I do feel bad for anybody just getting hooked down there nowadays.

 

[SouthFayetteFan]

I'm simply using your 20 year S&P investment example. I disagree it would be $170K.

20 year BWV stay would cost app $0, BWI 20 year stay (instead putting 10K in S&P) would cost $53,000 ($84K-$31K).


The last reported 20 year period on $10K put into the SP was 1996 to 2016, you would have $31,000.

$10,000 into BWV (about 200 points or 2 weeks a year in a studio) at the time would now be worth close to the same ($30K) in resale value.

The only real difference is the BWV owner would have dumped in about another $20,000 in dues. $30K total.

The closest apples to apples would be staying at BWI for 20 years for 2 weeks at app $300 a night or $84,000.

The $31,000 comes right off the $84K, so that only cost $53,000 to stay on cash.

But the BWV owner can sell and recover all of the purchase and dues paid.

I think we've probably gone far enough off topic on a thread about paid FPs coming to Disney. At this point we've identified that there are:

• People who feel that DVC can be a good investment AND that the stock market can be a good investment
• People who feel that DVC can be a good investment AND that the stock market IS a bad investment
• People who feel that DVC IS a bad investment AND that the stock market can be a good investment
• At least one that feels that gambling on horse racing and responsibly investing in index funds with a long-term hold strategy are the same thing.

Probably best if we move back to the topic at hand (Not intended at you or anything, just generally saying that this side discussion has run its course)

 

[jade1]

I think we've probably gone far enough off topic on a thread about paid FPs coming to Disney. At this point we've identified that there are:

• People who feel that DVC can be a good investment AND that the stock market can be a good investment
• People who feel that DVC can be a good investment AND that the stock market IS a bad investment
• People who feel that DVC IS a bad investment AND that the stock market can be a good investment
• At least one that feels that gambling on horse racing and responsibly investing in index funds at the same thing.

Probably best if we move back to the topic at hand (Not intended at you or anything, just generally saying that this side discussion has run its course)

Again, it just a follow up of facts.

That and the cost of staying at WDW (rooms) can highly impact the budget available for FP+

These can be DVC, Free dining, room discounts, 90 day stays, 60 day stays, 30 day stays, throw away rooms, off site stays, Star Wars Hotel stays, EMH, after hour party's etc.

Exactly what the thread is about IMO.

 

[anomamatt]

Nope, you are gambling that a company or group of companies will do well, you don't know if they will or not. You certainly hope they will, but it really isn't much different than betting on a horse at a race track, the risk of loosing all of your money is still quite real, although you might be able to pull out from stocks before loosing everything, but not always.

I love the idea of someone not investing in their retirement, and just going to the horse track instead. "Uh, yeah, these are equally smart choices!"

If you are investing in such a way you could "loose" (sic) it all, you are doing it wrong.

 

[cmwade77]

If/when they implement a new system I don’t think the effective date will have anything to do with when you book your trip. I believe it will have to do with when they implement the change.

I have 2 trips booked for this year. One I have already booked FPs for so I anticipate them honouring those .

The second trip is in Sep and could quite likely be when a new system is in place. If this happens, in spite of me booking this trip in Aug of 2018, I fully anticipate my FP options will be based on a new system if it is in place by then.

Also, when I book my confirmation includes:
- resort and room type
- ticket pkg (optional)
- dining plan (optional)

I will have to read one again but I don’t believe my confirmation discusses FPs at all.

Here is exactly what my confirmation email says about FPs:

You can make your Disney FastPass+ selections** up to 60 days before you arrive. Start exploring Disney FastPass+ experiences at MyDisneyExperience.com and add to your wish list

You will notice the **, here is what that says:

**Valid Theme Park admission and online registration required. Disney FastPass+ attractions and entertainment experiences, the number of selections you can make and available arrival windows are limited.

Also, the first part is a link, which means that is part of the confirmation email and would have to be honored for this reservation, here is an excerpt from that link:

Disney FastPass+ service lets you reserve access to select attractions, entertainment and more. With the purchase of a ticket or Annual Pass, you can make selections as early as 30 days before you arrive—starting at 7:00 AM Eastern Time. Plus, if you are staying at a Disney Resort hotel, you can make your FastPass+ selections up to 60 days prior to check-in for the entire length of your stay. And the best part? There is no extra charge for this complimentary benefit.

So all existing reservations would need to get free FPs based on this a d if you read through, it clearly states that while there may be tiers you can choose 3 FPs per day and has the following verbage:

After you redeem your initial 3 selections, use the app or head to a kiosk to make another selection—even if you’re in a different park from your original selections!

Valid theme park admission is required. FastPass+ attractions and entertainment experiences, the number of selections you can make and available arrival windows are limited. Making advance FastPass+ selections requires online registration.

So, it is also clear that after you have used the first three, you can get more for free as well.

Incidentally this is one of the very few Disney items that I have seen that doesn't say it is subject to change without notices in the fine print, which would indicate that even if a change were made it couldn't affect existing reservations.

But asaI said previously, I seriously doubt that Disney will move to a paid FP system aside from perhaps.paying for early access.

 

[cmwade77]

I love the idea of someone not investing in their retirement, and just going to the horse track instead. "Uh, yeah, these are equally smart choices!"

If you are investing in such a way you could "loose" (sic) it all, you are doing it wrong.

You can indeed loose in the stock market, I have seen it time and time again, sorry, it is no investing, it is betting that a company will do well. There are safer bets than others, but it is still a bet.

 

[anomamatt]

You can indeed loose in the stock market, I have seen it time and time again, sorry, it is no investing, it is betting that a company will do well. There are safer bets than others, but it is still a bet.

Absolutely you can lose money. But all of it? Unless you are investing in a couple specific stocks, that would be hard to pull off. Most rational people don’t invest that way.

 

[TDSAXX]

You can indeed loose in the stock market, I have seen it time and time again, sorry, it is no investing, it is betting that a company will do well. There are safer bets than others, but it is still a bet.

If you want anyone to take your opinions on investing in the stock market seriously, at least learn the difference between losing and “loosing” money.

 

[anomamatt]

If you want anyone to take your opinions on investing in the stock market seriously, at least learn the difference between losing and “loosing” money.

Unless his whole point was about loose socks? Loose socks are the worst!

 

[crvetter]

I'm simply using your 20 year S&P investment example. I disagree it would be $170K.

20 year BWV stay would cost app $0, BWI 20 year stay (instead putting 10K in S&P) would cost $53,000 ($84K-$31K).

Not only that, but I can now put $3,200 each year into the S&P for the next 20 years ($64,000) that you can't. $4,200 for the room each year cash, or $1,000 each year in dues.


The last reported 20 year period on $10K put into the SP was 1996 to 2016, you would have $31,000.

$10,000 into BWV (about 200 points or 2 weeks a year in a studio) at the time would now be worth close to the same ($30K) in resale value.

The only real difference is the BWV owner would have dumped in about another $20,000 in dues. $30K total.

The closest apples to apples would be staying at BWI for 20 years for 2 weeks at app $300 a night or $84,000.

The $31,000 comes right off the $84K, so that only cost $53,000 to stay on cash.

But the BWV owner can sell and recover all of the purchase and dues paid, and if they wanted-dumped the $3,200 savings each year into the S&P on top of it.

You and I were in agreement. I wasn't responding to directly to your post. I was replying to h the poster that commented on your post (who you may thought I was) that they were ignoring the cash cost of a room, the DVC members ability to invest the annual savings over cash rooms for a return, and any possible resale value (if any to be assumed). I completely agree a cash member could never get to $170k simply because their yearly cost is higher than the DVC member so the DVC member always has the advantage of adding the cash room cost less the yearly MF to be invested in the stock market, exactly as you showed. That even with cost of cash (opportunity cost) wouldn't necessarily make DVC a bad investment and has a minimal impact if you plan and can afford to go to Disney each and every year.

In short you and I agree, I tagged your response just to show I agreed on your assessment.

 

[jlundeen]

I think we've probably gone far enough off topic on a thread about paid FPs coming to Disney. At this point we've identified that there are:

• People who feel that DVC can be a good investment AND that the stock market can be a good investment
• People who feel that DVC can be a good investment AND that the stock market IS a bad investment
• People who feel that DVC IS a bad investment AND that the stock market can be a good investment
• At least one that feels that gambling on horse racing and responsibly investing in index funds with a long-term hold strategy are the same thing.

Probably best if we move back to the topic at hand (Not intended at you or anything, just generally saying that this side discussion has run its course)

Boy, I agree... is this thread about the potential of Paid FPs, or investment strategies? If it's the latter, perhaps it needs a new title, otherwise, perhaps we need to get back on topic. Just saying... I would hazard a guess that most of us are not here to learn/talk about investment strategies...

 

[SouthFayetteFan]

Man - now we don’t even know what we are agreeing or disagreeing on. One thing we can probably all agree on...Loose socks are no good.

I haven’t been following the whole Martin saga on WDWmagic - is there any legit updates to what’s going on here? Or is this thread really just about socks and stocks now? When’s the last time Martin said anything on this? Any (legitimate) rumors on when it may be implemented?