Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[Sandisw]

Hate to the bearer of bad news, but our guide said RIV price would go up as they get closer to opening. He had no idea on the timing (before vs. after), but he had a price it would go up as he told us the cost difference if we waited.

Thanks for the heads up. In order to keep my memberships to 3, I won’t be able to add on until that is complete. Good news is that it looks like I may have a buyer for my 2042, so one step closer.

I will follow up with our guide. They know why we are waiting so maybe there will be a way to get it started while the deed changes occur on my current membership to match what the new RIV owners will be. But maybe if we just do the RIV now, they can then make the other membership match the new one. I’ll call member administration Monday!

 

[RivShore]

I'm not sure anyone can say that with certainty. With the passage of another 23 years it will be 2042. But what will have happened to or been offered on the 2042 contracts, we simply don't know.

We can speculate all kinds of wild scenarios on what happens with the 2042's but, when just taking into account what we know today, we can certainly say the 2042's will be worthless in 2043.

RIV and other post 2042 contracts could end up being like other time share contracts that you basically have to give away.

Again, given the history and what we know today, that is very very doubtful. We already have some data points on RIV resales and they are selling at a discount but are selling quickly even with all the restrictions..

 

[zavandor]

We can speculate all kinds of wild scenarios on what happens with the 2042's but, when just taking into account what we know today, we can certainly say the 2042's will be worthless in 2043

They'll be worthless in 2042 as well.
They expire in January 2042, the last set of points owners will receive is the 2041 points.

 

[Sanwich]

Hate to the bearer of bad news, but our guide said RIV price would go up as they get closer to opening. He had no idea on the timing (before vs. after), but he had a price it would go up as he told us the cost difference if we waited.

Do you happen to remember what the cost difference was between now and later? We were thinking about adding a small RIV contract in a few months, but if the increase is going to be significant (like more than $5 a point), we might push our purchase a bit earlier.

 

[Brianstl]

Again, given the history and what we know today, that is very very doubtful. We already have some data points on RIV resales and they are selling at a discount but are selling quickly even with all the restrictions..

Why should we assume that DVC will remain the unicorn among all timeshares? Over the next three years 1,700+ rooms will be added to WDW. Is there really enough built up demand among both the hotel and DVC customers to not only fill the new and existing rooms, but to fill them at current prices Disney is charging?

What people currently use to justify resale prices is what you can get for points on the rental market. What happens to resale prices when supply of points far out numbers demand for large parts of the year? What happens if a commercial renter decides to cash out and to dump a ton of points on the resale market because their business model is no longer sustainable?

 

[Gary Carter]

You are right, that's true. I am almost 50 so I do not consider this part of it at all. But they are probably going for young families just starting out, so yeah I see how for that demographic that matters. They will definitly be a new customer, and I agree with the points that were made about them not really knowing the difference from the "old" system.

You’re right but you’re missing another big piece of this. I bought at 28 years old. 100 dollars per point resale at SSR was doable, riviera direct absolutely was not. I don’t think that there are enough people who are young enough to fully appreciate 50 years AND pay those very high prices to keep this product afloat!

 

[Soap_1984]

You’re right but you’re missing another big piece of this. I bought at 28 years old. 100 dollars per point resale at SSR was doable, riviera direct absolutely was not. I don’t think that there are enough people who are young enough to fully appreciate 50 years AND pay those very high prices to keep this product afloat!

This is a good point. Wages have not increased enough compared to the cost of living and education; the generation 35 and under have a lot of student debt and many cannot even afford a house let alone dvc. I would be shocked if there were many dvc purchasers for riviera that were under 35 but disney must know something we don't.

 

[Brianstl]

This is a good point. Wages have not increased enough compared to the cost of living and education; the generation 35 and under have a lot of student debt and many cannot even afford a house let alone dvc. I would be shocked if there were many dvc purchasers for riviera that were under 35 but disney must know something we don't.

From the design, the focus on luxury and the restaurant selection; I feel like Riviera’s target is childless millennial couples, empty nesters and retirees. It just feels like the least kid friendly of all the resorts to me.

 

[Soap_1984]

From the design, the focus on luxury and the restaurant select; I feel like Riviera’s target is childless millennial couples, empty nesters and retirees. It just feels like the least kid friendly of all the resorts to me.

Yeah that's a good point having seen the rooms and drawings it does seem like that. Perhaps you're right they are just going after a bit of a different market than the traditional disney market.

 

[Gary Carter]

From the design, the focus on luxury and the restaurant selection; I feel like Riviera’s target is childless millennial couples, empty nesters and retirees. It just feels like the least kid friendly of all the resorts to me.

Respectively I disagree. If they were going after childless millennials, they wouldn’t be building bungalows and cabins, they would build studios to meet demand! Maybe they’re just throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks.

 

[kboo]

Respectively I disagree. If they were going after childless millennials, they wouldn’t be building bungalows and cabins, they would build studios to meet demand! Maybe they’re just throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks.

Then again maybe that's what the tower studios are for. RIV has the biggest range in point costs/sizes from a tower studio to a GV. The selling point to DINKs (which we were until not that long ago) is that you can start small, do long weekends fro F&G, F&W, in a tower studio, and even if you have kids later, RIV is the home resort that will grow with your family. Studios sleep 5, which *can* hold a growing family until they have enough disposable income to add on to stay in 2BRs and larger. And they have (maybe, just maybe?) less pressure on studios or smaller units because they didn't sell a whole bunch of small contracts with stupid bungalows or cabins that are hard to book. That, to me, seems like they listened to the complaints about Poly.

And - they listened to complaints from VGF by providing more storage, complaints about CCV by making sure studios could sleep more than 4 *and* no stupid cabins, and followed the BLT lead by having lots of rooms.

ETA: and listened to complaints about BLT kitchens by getting rid of the island.

 

[Akck]

Do you happen to remember what the cost difference was between now and later? We were thinking about adding a small RIV contract in a few months, but if the increase is going to be significant (like more than $5 a point), we might push our purchase a bit earlier.

I want to say something like $20. I’ll have to admit the amount could have been a guess on his part or even just an effort to get us to buy now rather than later. All I can recall is that he quoted a specific dollar amount it would increase when they raise the price. Oh, and he wasn’t pushy on getting us to buy, which made his info more believable.

 

[ChimneyJim]

Respectively I disagree. If they were going after childless millennials, they wouldn’t be building bungalows and cabins, they would build studios to meet demand! Maybe they’re just throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks.

There are no bungalows or cabins at Riviera. So it is possible the demographic is a bit different at this resort.

 

[Jenniebee]

From the design, the focus on luxury and the restaurant selection; I feel like Riviera’s target is childless millennial couples, empty nesters and retirees. It just feels like the least kid friendly of all the resorts to me.

I agree, I think they also built it to be a home base for Food & Wine or Marathons where an adult may come down with a friend for the weeeknd. I don't even think this resort has a real table service restaurant, only a marketplace and a signature dining. I think they are counting on people eating elsewhere. It's definitely got a different set up and formula than anything else.

 

[RivShore]

Why should we assume that DVC will remain the unicorn among all timeshares? Over the next three years 1,700+ rooms will be added to WDW. Is there really enough built up demand among both the hotel and DVC customers to not only fill the new and existing rooms, but to fill them at current prices Disney is charging?

What people currently use to justify resale prices is what you can get for points on the rental market. What happens to resale prices when supply of points far out numbers demand for large parts of the year? What happens if a commercial renter decides to cash out and to dump a ton of points on the resale market because their business model is no longer sustainable?

Context is everything - those 1,700 rooms amount to less than a 5% increase in total rooms at WDW. It shouldn't be that hard to absorb them, even if visitor growth slows.
As long as Disney gets a decent rate for their rooms, there should always be some kind of market for DVC in resale and rentals. Maybe not as robust as the current market but to assume it all goes to zero because of a 4%+ increase in rooms is a big leap.

 

[The Jackal]

Why should we assume that DVC will remain the unicorn among all timeshares? Over the next three years 1,700+ rooms will be added to WDW. Is there really enough built up demand among both the hotel and DVC customers to not only fill the new and existing rooms, but to fill them at current prices Disney is charging?

What people currently use to justify resale prices is what you can get for points on the rental market. What happens to resale prices when supply of points far out numbers demand for large parts of the year? What happens if a commercial renter decides to cash out and to dump a ton of points on the resale market because their business model is no longer sustainable?

They probably said the same thing when SSR was announced, it has 1320 rooms with the THV. Some thought when they finished Pop, Art of Animation and the All Star resorts they were too many rooms. Who knows what the future will bring but all Disney hears is “ If you build it, they will come.” So far it’s paid off for them.

 

[SecondEventuality]

Have these been listed for awhile? There are 3 for sale.

https://www.fidelityresales.com/resort/disneys-riviera-resort

 

[Soap_1984]

Two of those have been there for quite while (over a month). The one for $135 had only been there a couple weeks I think.

 

[Jenniebee]

They are going to get dirt cheap a year or two from now when there are dozens of them popping up. Should be interesting.

 

[Marionnette]

They are going to get dirt cheap a year or two from now when there are dozens of them popping up. Should be interesting.

Why do you think that there will be dozens of RIV resale contracts on the market in a year or two?