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@mmmears.
I did not ask for a retention offer on my Brilliant because my plan was to downgrade the Brilliant to the $95 Bonvoy as soon as the 50k FNC posted. (Turns out, from recent DPs, that you can downgrade the Brilliant to the Bonvoy as soon as the AF posts and still get the 50k FNC weeks/months later. That is, you only need to have the Brilliant at your cardmember anniversary to get the 50k FNC, and your card account needs to stay open when the FNC posts even if it’s a downgraded Bonvoy by then.) Then, I’d wait for an upgrade offer on the Bonvoy to the Brilliant and accept that when it made sense to do so. I did not feel comfortable asking for and accepting a retention offer knowing that I would downgrade the card, even if I wouldn’t be closing it.
People who did ask for a retention offer on the Brilliant were getting 30k Marriott points for $3k spend in 3 months around September and October. As always, Amex retention offers are targeted and change periodically so YMMV. Some talking points you could use if the Amex reps try to play hardball is the fact that Marriott in the past year has raised the category of many hotels you stay or would like to stay at, and introduced peak pricing, which you feel has devalued their points and FNC for when and where you want to travel. There’s also the fact that the high-end Brilliant’s earn rate is the same as the basic Bonvoy card’s earn rate so you could use some incentive to spend on it.
By comparison, two weeks after I downgraded my Brilliant to the Bonvoy, my downgraded Bonvoy received an upgrade offer to the Brilliant for 50k Marriott points after spending $2.5k in 3 months. (Other Bonvoy>Brilliant upgrade offers have been 100k or 125k Marriott points for $5k spend in 3 months.) I plan to accept the offer soon, but want to space out my MSRs a little more. Since Amex requires you to keep the upgraded product open for a year after accepting an upgrade offer, which will cover my second cardmember year anniversary, I’ll get another 50k FNC if I upgrade before then. I’ve used 2x $300 Marriott credits during my first year with the Brilliant before I downgraded. If and when I upgrade, I’ll have a new set of $300 Marriott credit immediately, and I should have another $300 credit after my next cardmember anniversary. Basically, I will be able to extract a lot more value by downgrading and then upgrading again compared to just keeping the Brilliant open another year and taking a retention offer.