Marathon Weekend 2021

[Sleepless Knight]

That definitely is a song that's on point for race weekends.

I noticed how many songs they chose with quicker paces and themes such as "we can do it" or "I Have a Dream" from Tangled near the end of the course. It's well chosen on their part. Funny thing is I'm not sure that "Let's Go Fly a Kite" fits the theme of the marathon dream, but the tempo works great. I will never watch Mary Poppins the same way again.

Go the Distance is the same for. I watched Rezruns in preparation for my first marathon that was in January. I remember them playing it all through his 2018 marathon video. I did the dessert buffet + Happily Ever After with my friend who also ran as a post marathon treat - we both got emotional during that song. And everything about dreams coming true, felt so poignant after dreaming of going to Disney World (and doing this marathon) for so long.

I did the Cinderella Castle Happily Ever After package this year after the marathon for the same reason. It just felt like the perfect way to end the experience. I loved sitting in the special viewing area and just relaxing while also reflecting on my running journey. Walking around Disneyland the day after my first Half, I could not fathom how people could run a marathon one day after doing a half when I could barely hobble my way slowly around the park. And yet somehow I had gone from that day to finishing Dopey.

 

[Krandor]

Another big race down. PTRR on thanksgiving weekend now virtual only. I now have serious concerns for marathon weekend. I don't think disney wants to be the first big race which they now basiclly are. Only other one I know of still (currrently) happening is space coast.

 

[drummerwife]

I’m optimistic that they will hold the races. I’ve been at Disney for almost a week now and I’m impressed how they’re handling the distancing and mask mandates. I think they will limit or eliminate spectating along the course and masks will be required when not actively running on the course ie: in the corrals and the finisher chute.
I’m hopeful that with the rumored reduced capacity the races will go on. Call me an unapologetic optimist.

 

[Krandor]

I’m optimistic that they will hold the races. I’ve been at Disney for almost a week now and I’m impressed how they’re handling the distancing and mask mandates. I think they will limit or eliminate spectating along the course and masks will be required when not actively running on the course ie: in the corrals and the finisher chute.
I’m hopeful that with the rumored reduced capacity the races will go on. Call me an unapologetic optimist.

We'll see. Right now I think the only way you can really do races is staggered starts like what ATC is doing for the physical race they are doing in november and what they tried to make happen for peachtree but that requires a start line being open for a very long time which isn't an option for disney.

It's possible but I think I'm down at 10-20% at best of it happening.

 

[roxymama]

Chicago Hot Chocolate in early Nov is now going virtual (not a big surprise.) I signed up because I always do that race, but I will miss the race day experience this year.

For songs: not sure if was already listed, but I like running to the Fantasmic music. Feels very Epic.

 

[zfletch74]

Another big race down. PTRR on thanksgiving weekend now virtual only. I now have serious concerns for marathon weekend. I don't think disney wants to be the first big race which they now basiclly are. Only other one I know of still (currrently) happening is space coast.

As of right now California International Marathon is still a go in December. But I'm not holding my breath for that one either.

 

[happ]

I’m optimistic that they will hold the races. I’ve been at Disney for almost a week now and I’m impressed how they’re handling the distancing and mask mandates. I think they will limit or eliminate spectating along the course and masks will be required when not actively running on the course ie: in the corrals and the finisher chute.
I’m hopeful that with the rumored reduced capacity the races will go on. Call me an unapologetic optimist.

I want to hold onto optimism since this will be my first full and negativity will hinder my training. I need the motivation of the race. I'm registered for a 10-miler on the 29th that I'm hoping to use as my proof of time. The company that's doing the race has been holding modified 5k races, so I'm optimistic that the race will happen. With reduced capacities, I think Disney could make a race happen safely. They could alter the park hours to allow time for a staggered start, if they really wanted to.

 

[Dug720]

I want to hold onto optimism since this will be my first full and negativity will hinder my training. I need the motivation of the race. I'm registered for a 10-miler on the 29th that I'm hoping to use as my proof of time. The company that's doing the race has been holding modified 5k races, so I'm optimistic that the race will happen. With reduced capacities, I think Disney could make a race happen safely. They could alter the park hours to allow time for a staggered start, if they really wanted to.

Yes, especially the fact that Disney sold a GREATLY REDUCED number of bibs for Marathon Weekend. That in and of itself could mean that their corrals could go off as scheduled or with minimal modifications. The only parks that are really closed while the Half and Full are going on is Epcot at the start (if the full course starts through there like it used to) and MK. The times I've done the full, AK, Studios, and Epcot at the end were all open when I got there - and as Disney races I'm the late mid-pack/early back of pack. I could see them reducing pass availability for those 3 parks as another option. I believe that just by the fact that they reduced the number of bibs, runDisney has been planning ways to make it happen for a while now.

That said, I don't run/walk just for a medal. I do it for my physical and mental health. So cancellations don't make me say "Why bother?" I'm ultimately doing it for me, and so I will keep doing it for me.

And still go to Disney in January even if...

 

[1lilspark]

Right now my local runners club has made it's September 5K (moved from Spring) Virtual and has yet to make a call on the October challenge run (5K Friday Night, 1 and 2 milers Sat AM, 5K Sat Night) ---and a local running store just sent an eblast that a 5K for the local police department this fall will still be live

I know these are a much smaller scale then Disney.... that said I'm still feeling Marathon and my Tampa Race that is the same weekend as Princess have a 60/40 as far as being virtual/live

for SAFD pretty much any song in the "I want" Trope amps me up

 

[DopeyBadger]

From a logistics standpoint, I would evaluate the race in the following manner:

-Start time
-Race Course
-Opening of Magic Kingdom
-Density of waves

If they use the same start time (5am), the same 2020 course, and the same opening of MK (9am), then that limits them to a 60 min start window given the sweepers do a 16 min/mile.

MK Exit = 11.2 miles on 2020 race course
11.2 miles * 16 min/mile = 179 minutes
9am - 180 min = 6am
5am to 6am = 60 min starting window

So to increase the window, they'd have to change the course back to 2019 (removing the advantageous for them removal of Osceola Pkwy), move the start time earlier than 5am, or change the opening time of MK (granted they could forgo the whole no runners in MK when MK is open too).

EDIT - The HM hits MK Exit at around Mile 6. So that would be 96 min for the Balloon Ladies. With a 9:00am leave, that means ~7:30am at the latest. So in theory you could have 150 min instead of 60 min for the HM if they started at 5am. Looks like in the past they've aimed for 8am as the "exit cutoff" for the HM, but this is using 9am like they do for the M.

If the 60 min start window holds, then it comes down to how much density at the start is acceptable to runDisney. In a normal year, they have ~400 runners per minute crossing the starting line. Let's say they sold only 10% of the normal number of bibs. A total of 1800 bibs for Goofy+Dopey+Marathon and 2500 bibs for Goofy+Dopey+Half Marathon. For the Marathon, that would be 30 runners per minute. For the Half Marathon, that would be 17 runners per minute (using 150 min). The crux would come to what runDisney deems an acceptable density of runners at the start (and later on on the course itself). The races that have been going on here in WI have been doing 10 runners per wave at 30 seconds per wave. So that would be 20 runners per minute. To equal that, it would need to be 1200 bibs for Goofy+Dopey+Marathon and 3000 bibs for Goofy+Dopey+Half Marathon if all else remains static as discussed above. Granted a caveat is that the races here have a much smaller physical starting line footprint. Something like 10-15 feet, whereas I'd guess the normal runDisney starting line is 30-50ish feet across.

I wasn't able to find anything easily, but I wonder what's the most number of finishers in a live race that has occurred in the US since April?

 

[Krandor]

From a logistics standpoint, I would evaluate the race in the following manner:

-Start time
-Race Course
-Opening of Magic Kingdom
-Density of waves

If they use the same start time (5am), the same 2020 course, and the same opening of MK (9am), then that limits them to a 60 min start window given the sweepers do a 16 min/mile.

MK Exit = 11.2 miles on 2020 race course
11.2 miles * 16 min/mile = 179 minutes
9am - 180 min = 6am
5am to 6am = 60 min starting window

So to increase the window, they'd have to change the course back to 2019 (removing the advantageous for them removal of Osceola Pkwy), move the start time earlier than 5am, or change the opening time of MK (granted they could forgo the whole no runners in MK when MK is open too).

If the 60 min start window holds, then it comes down to how much density at the start is acceptable to runDisney. In a normal year, they have ~400 runners per minute crossing the starting line. Let's say they sold only 10% of the normal number of bibs. A total of 1800 bibs for Goofy+Dopey+Marathon and 2500 bibs for Goofy+Dopey+Half Marathon. For the Marathon, that would be 30 runners per minute. For the Half Marathon, that would be 42 runners per minute. The crux would come to what runDisney deems an acceptable density of runners at the start (and later on on the course itself). The races that have been going on here in WI have been doing 10 runners per wave at 30 seconds per wave. So that would be 20 runners per minute. To equal that, it would need to be 1200 bibs for Goofy+Dopey+Marathon and 1200 bibs for Goofy+Dopey+Half Marathon if all else remains static as discussed above. Granted a caveat is that the races here have a much smaller physical starting line footprint. Something like 10-15 feet, whereas I'd guess the normal runDisney starting line is 30-50ish feet across.

I wasn't able to find anything easily, but I wonder what's the most number of finishers in a live race that has occurred in the US since April?

The race the ATC is putting on here on Nov 1, they are doing 25 racers every 5 minutes and that is with what should also be a large start line area (they are holding it at an auto racing road course). Though since it is a closed course they not have any real timing restrictions other daylight.

 

[Kerry1957]

From a logistics standpoint, I would evaluate the race in the following manner:

-Start time
-Race Course
-Opening of Magic Kingdom
-Density of waves

Another aspect of this is how big the corrals would have to be. I ran in the race @DopeyBadger referenced, and the 100 participants lined up in a grid 100 feet by 100 feet; thus everyone was 10 feet away from each other. Each 10 person row started every 30 seconds; the net effect was that everyone started in single file 10 feet ahead of and 10 feet behind another runner. I felt very comfortable doing this, and I take the pandemic seriously.

For Disney and using January's corrals, a similar distancing would be something like 4 people across the road. If there are 1,200 runners then there would be 300 rows each 10 feet apart, or 3,000 feet long. 3,000 feet is over 0.5 mile and with space in between each corral and some unavoidable "slop" (a technical term) then the total length of the corrals would approach 0.75 mile. Remembering how far we walked on the road to get to the corrals, this seems feasible.

If there are closer to 2,500 runners, then the corrals just became over a 1.25 miles long, and perhaps not as feasible.

 

[DopeyBadger]

So I did what I consider a very very back of the envelope calculation to try and figure out how many bibs were sold for the Marathon and HM. I went back to May and counted the number of DIS posters who stated they got a bib. There were 49 in both the Marathon and HM (includes Dopey and Goofy). I then went back to the last several years of the Excel sheet I make for the weekend to see how many runners are on it per race.

2020 M - 67, 2020 HM - 59
2018 M - 97, 2018 HM - 78
2017 M - 61, 2017 HM - 59

I then went back and looked at the % the DIS'ers made of the total # of bibs for each race:

2020 M - 0.36%, HM - 0.22%
2018 M - 0.35%, HM - 0.09%
2017 M - 0.25%, HM - 0.21%

So for the M, DIS'ers made up about 0.3% of the field. And for the HM, DIS'ers made up about 0.2% of the field. So if I use those values on 49 DIS'ers from registration day, then I get 16,000 bibs for the Marathon and 24,500 bibs for the Half Marathon.

So either DIS'ers make up a much larger proportion of the total field, or we're looking at 16,000-24,000 bibs for the weekend. On its face though, this estimate seems way too high given the pace at which the weekend sold out at and runDisney stating unofficially there was a "reduced number" of bibs. So I'm leaning towards the DIS'ers are making up a large proportion of the total field than in 2017, 2018, or 2020. But to get down to the 1600-3000 range, DIS'ers would need to make up 2-3% of the total field.

 

[Kerry1957]

I think DIS'ers are, almost by definition, more "into" Marathon Weekend and would be more apt to register in the face of a lot of uncertainty. In olden days (like 12 months ago) the M was open for registration well after the first month or two, which allowed many folks to delay waiting to register until their personal/work/financial affairs were settled. I'm guessing that most, but not all, of the DIS'ers registered ASAP. For 2021, one either registered ASAP, or were shut out.

 

[Krandor]

I think DIS'ers are, almost by definition, more "into" Marathon Weekend and would be more apt to register in the face of a lot of uncertainty. In olden days (like 12 months ago) the M was open for registration well after the first month or two, which allowed many folks to delay waiting to register until their personal/work/financial affairs were settled. I'm guessing that most, but not all, of the DIS'ers registered ASAP. For 2021, one either registered ASAP, or were shut out.

I agree. I think most people on here were more likely to signup and try to run it especially with how far in advance registration is. When registering 8-9 months in advance it is easy to want to be optimistic things will be better then.

 

[Dug720]

All this math is giving me a headache. I'm going for my run!

 

[huskies90]

So I did what I consider a very very back of the envelope calculation to try and figure out how many bibs were sold for the Marathon and HM. I went back to May and counted the number of DIS posters who stated they got a bib. There were 49 in both the Marathon and HM (includes Dopey and Goofy). I then went back to the last several years of the Excel sheet I make for the weekend to see how many runners are on it per race.

2020 M - 67, 2020 HM - 59
2018 M - 97, 2018 HM - 78
2017 M - 61, 2017 HM - 59

I then went back and looked at the % the DIS'ers made of the total # of bibs for each race:

2020 M - 0.36%, HM - 0.22%
2018 M - 0.35%, HM - 0.09%
2017 M - 0.25%, HM - 0.21%

So for the M, DIS'ers made up about 0.3% of the field. And for the HM, DIS'ers made up about 0.2% of the field. So if I use those values on 49 DIS'ers from registration day, then I get 16,000 bibs for the Marathon and 24,500 bibs for the Half Marathon.

So either DIS'ers make up a much larger proportion of the total field, or we're looking at 16,000-24,000 bibs for the weekend. On its face though, this estimate seems way too high given the pace at which the weekend sold out at and runDisney stating unofficially there was a "reduced number" of bibs. So I'm leaning towards the DIS'ers are making up a large proportion of the total field than in 2017, 2018, or 2020. But to get down to the 1600-3000 range, DIS'ers would need to make up 2-3% of the total field.

I think another way to calculate it is to compare it to the normal # of 5K bibs they sell every year since the marathon and challenges sold out faster than a typical 5K. Is there a way to know how many 5K only bibs are usually sold?

 

[DopeyBadger]

I think another way to calculate it is to compare it to the normal # of 5K bibs they sell every year since the marathon and challenges sold out faster than a typical 5K. Is there a way to know how many 5K only bibs are usually sold?

I believe in a normal year there are typically around 12,000 5k bibs including Dopey.

 

[huskies90]

I believe in a normal year there are typically around 12,000 5k bibs including Dopey.

So, if we back out Dopey, approximately 5K-6K? I bet that is the ballpark. Do we think they can spread that many out?

I think it boils down to how badly Disney wants to host this event. They clearly are not going to make a ton of money from it with such a low number of registrations. I don’t think they need to see another big race go first because runDisney races are different and have their own unique advantages and disadvantages. And they are going to do what Disney wants to do not what other races do. The bottom line is they have had plenty of time to come up with a plan to make it work. And if they really want to make it work, they can. But I am not sure it is worth the effort for Disney.

 

[Z-Knight]

So, if we back out Dopey, approximately 5K-6K? I bet that is the ballpark. Do we think they can spread that many out?

I think it boils down to how badly Disney wants to host this event. They clearly are not going to make a ton of money from it with such a low number of registrations. I don’t think they need to see another big race go first because runDisney races are different and have their own unique advantages and disadvantages. And they are going to do what Disney wants to do not what other races do. The bottom line is they have had plenty of time to come up with a plan to make it work. And if they really want to make it work, they can. But I am not sure it is worth the effort for Disney.

I feel the cost of putting one on is low so they probably make a lot of money. They do the runs early enough that doesn't affect their parks and very low overhead for water and drinks, especially when they have volunteers. The major reservation would be if someone got sick and then sued for negligence....that would make them gun shy for sure. I hope they don't cancel...please don't cancel