Baffling availability at 11 months out...

[Iestyn5150]

I’ve been analysing availability at my home resort, AKV, at 11 months out and it’s not making much sense. Why is it the first day of a weeks reservation at exactly 11 months out will never be available and yet days before and after it are? I’ve been suspecting reservation walkings but why would anyone walk a one day reservation? Am I missing something? Also, how are people able to get in so quickly? Prior to 8am the whole week I’m looking to reserve is available so I get all my info in and wait patiently for the clock to tick over. As soon as it hits 8am I click to reserve and immediately get told the full week is no longer available. I’m clicking at exactly 8am and yet someone else repeatedly gets in before me. I’ve tried 4 times in the last 5 days and every time I’m beaten to it! Am I doing something wrong? Might it be because someone else is booking a reservation on the phone instead of online? I’m struggling to understand, help!!!

 

[Sandisw]

It is walking. When you see the day before you are trying, grab it, as people walk, you can modify your own to keep adding nights.

Phone opens later so it’s not that, I understand your frustration but I am assuming you are trying for AKV Value or CL. There are not a lot of those rooms.

Also try things about an hour later. As others change, things can open up. I’ve had luck this way

 

[Iestyn5150]

So people will walk a 1 day reservation until it’s at a date they actually want their reservation to start and then add the rest of the reservation to it? Am I understanding you correctly? The part I don’t understand is just before 8am the whole week is available to select ready to reserve but at exactly 8am, on the dot, the first day is taken. How are they doing it so quickly?

 

[starry_solo]

So people will walk a 1 day reservation until it’s at a date they actually want their reservation to start and then add the rest of the reservation to it? Am I understanding you correctly? The part I don’t understand is just before 8am the whole week is available to select ready to reserve but at exactly 8am, on the dot, the first day is taken. How are they doing it so quickly?

They walk a week out. You can book up to 7 days when making a reservation. So they start at a month and then every few days, add days to the end and drop from front. Rinse and repeat

 

[Iestyn5150]

They walk a week out. You can book up to 7 days when making a reservation. So they start at a month and then every few days, add days to the end and drop from front. Rinse and repeat

I understand that, but that doesn’t explain why there’s only ever 1 day taken in-between days and days of availability. It’s always the day exactly at 11 months too, I’m not understanding it. Look now and you’ll see, look for availability at AKV value range, studio,1 and 2 beds. All only have 6 days instead of 7 because the first day is always unavailable. The speed they are taken every day too is ridiculous. I literally cannot click any sooner after 8am hits, how are others getting in in-front of me every single day?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

You are not accounting for how few of those units there are.

 

[JETSDAD]

I understand that, but that doesn’t explain why there’s only ever 1 day taken in-between days and days of availability. It’s always the day exactly at 11 months too, I’m not understanding it. Look now and you’ll see, look for availability at AKV value range, studio,1 and 2 beds. All only have 6 days instead of 7 because the first day is always unavailable. The speed they are taken every day too is ridiculous. I literally cannot click any sooner after 8am hits, how are others getting in in-front of me every single day?

The reason you see just the one day disappear is overlap. Everyday there will be checking in and others checking out. You will also find times where more than 1 day into the 11 month mark is already booked meaning nobody is checking out the next day. When previous days then show back up that's typically walking. Often there will only be 1 room come available but a lot of people trying to get it. At 8:00 right on you may have 100 people trying to get one room so it's really just luck of the draw/timing as to who gets it locked in. This is why so many people walk. If you only give yourself one shot at getting in you have a very small chance of success. If you start trying a month out (just picked a random amount of time) it gives you more shots at getting a booking started.

 

[drusba]

Very common phenonemon when there are far fewer rooms available than the demand at 11 months out. It is a factor of having few rooms still available for any given day while having check-outs each day, Example, those who have a week booked, Sep 7-13, will still have the room on Sep 12 when the room is shown as full on Oct 12, but the rooms they will vacate Sep 13 will be shown as open for Sep 13 and after. On Oct 13, those checked-out rooms get grabbed for Sep 13 and after, but someone else is checking out Sep14, resulting in rooms shown as full Sep 13 but not thereafter.

If earlier days are opening up, it can be a factor of walking but you need only one walker for an opening to be shown. The system never tells you how many rooms are open and all you need is one for the system to show a day is now avaialble.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

As mentioned it's the overlap that comes from being able to book up to 7 nights from the date of check in.

Whether it's walking or not is a guess, albeit for the rooms you are almost certainly looking at it's a good guess. The biggest sign of walking is not that day disappearing because that could happen with reservations that people 100% intend to keep because of the plus 7 booking ability, it's if you see that night open up again some time within the next 6 days.

 

[Sandisw]

I understand that, but that doesn’t explain why there’s only ever 1 day taken in-between days and days of availability. It’s always the day exactly at 11 months too, I’m not understanding it. Look now and you’ll see, look for availability at AKV value range, studio,1 and 2 beds. All only have 6 days instead of 7 because the first day is always unavailable. The speed they are taken every day too is ridiculous. I literally cannot click any sooner after 8am hits, how are others getting in in-front of me every single day?

With the ease of online modification, people may be walking day by day vs, before when they would wait to call in farther into the walk. So, if someone books a 5 night trip and is walking it, before, they might call MS 3 days in to push it forward. Now, you can do it yourself so you do it day by day. That is why you might see the one day open with something before and after,

So, you go on tomorrow and can’t get Sept 13th because you got beat out again, if you see, however, the 12th, which wasn’t there today, it tells you at least one person is walking and modified. That is why if you see that, grab it, because it is very likely, you’ll be able to slowly get booked what you want that way.

I have lost out on SV at VGF the same way...don’t know how others are so fast. But, I kept trying and was able to get eventually.

 

[TLPL]

I have been trying book a value studio for next Christmas without any luck. I thought I can try the walking method, but I can't even get any random date to start with. I have checked every day at 7:59am. I have only seen either the "you are too early " message, or they are all sold out a second after it turns 8:00am. I don't know how that can happen. Are there some computer script people using to heck the system to get those reservations? I don't understand how it is possible.

 

[disneydiz]

I have been trying book a value studio for next Christmas without any luck. I thought I can try the walking method, but I can't even get any random date to start with. I have checked every day at 7:59am. I have only seen either the "you are too early " message, or they are all sold out a second after it turns 8:00am. I don't know how that can happen. Are there some computer script people using to heck the system to get those reservations? I don't understand how it is possible.

The same thing is happening at Boardwalk right now. Standard-view rooms are gone - even though I click right at 8 am. I wonder if it has to do with internet speeds, nothing else makes sense.

 

[Sandisw]

I have been trying book a value studio for next Christmas without any luck. I thought I can try the walking method, but I can't even get any random date to start with. I have checked every day at 7:59am. I have only seen either the "you are too early " message, or they are all sold out a second after it turns 8:00am. I don't know how that can happen. Are there some computer script people using to heck the system to get those reservations? I don't understand how it is possible.

You have thousands of people trying for the exact same thing and only a few rooms. It is pure luck as to whose internet connects fast enough to get them.

Keep trying! It is all you can do!

 

[cmarsh31]

Some times I try for weeks, other times I get one on the 1st or 2nd try (AK value). I always plan (in terms of points) to book a 1bd standard but try for the 2bd value.

 

[drusba]

I have been trying book a value studio for next Christmas without any luck. I thought I can try the walking method, but I can't even get any random date to start with. I have checked every day at 7:59am. I have only seen either the "you are too early " message, or they are all sold out a second after it turns 8:00am. I don't know how that can happen. Are there some computer script people using to heck the system to get those reservations? I don't understand how it is possible.

What you are experiencing often happens with the limited number of value studios. Many are trying to reserve and in reality most rooms on any given day at 11 months out have already been filled by prior reservations, e.g., those lucky enough to get a value 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 or 1 day before you go online at your 11-month-out date have already filled most of the values for your arrival date and even dates thereafter because a member can get up to 7 nights at 11 months out. Basically, all you are competing for on your 11-month-out date is the value studios that will be vacated on that date by check-outs. That is likely a small number of rooms that can fill right at 8 a.m., with the winners simply being those whose computers connect with Disney’s faster than others right at 8 a.m.

 

[Best Aunt]

The same thing is happening at Boardwalk right now. Standard-view rooms are gone - even though I click right at 8 am. I wonder if it has to do with internet speeds, nothing else makes sense.

I have wondered about Internet speed. Isn’t Fios faster than broadband?

 

[crvetter]

I have wondered about Internet speed. Isn’t Fios faster than broadband?

Really any modern broadband connection doesn’t matter based on the task being performed (sending a simple command). It’s really ultimately who clicks reserve first right after 8 am (based on their server time which could be slightly off in reality from your own computer or other clocks).

 

[Fangorn]

Without going into all the technical details of how the internet actually works, suffice it to say that

1) the difference in operational timescales between computers and humans is so vast that what you perceive of as "exactly at 8:00" is, to the computer "sometime in the last hour or two".

And

2) the internet is a constantly changing network of connections. At any given moment the connection between my computer and Disney's server(s) could consist of 10 legs or hundreds. None of that is within your control. The "Internet speed" your provider claims you have is just the transmission rate of the leg between you and your provider's server. Basically, there is a great deal of randomness involved for how long a given message will take to get to where it's supposed to go.

With so few of certain types of rooms and so many people all trying to serve them at the same time (humanly speaking), it really does end up being the luck of the draw.

Steve

 

[wishicouldgomoreofte]

Without going into all the technical details of how the internet actually works, suffice it to say that

1) the difference in operational timescales between computers and humans is so vast that what you perceive of as "exactly at 8:00" is, to the computer "sometime in the last hour or two".

And

2) the internet is a constantly changing network of connections. At any given moment the connection between my computer and Disney's server(s) could consist of 10 legs or hundreds. None of that is within your control. The "Internet speed" your provider claims you have is just the transmission rate of the leg between you and your provider's server. Basically, there is a great deal of randomness involved for how long a given message will take to get to where it's supposed to go.

With so few of certain types of rooms and so many people all trying to serve them at the same time (humanly speaking), it really does end up being the luck of the draw.

Steve

Thank you, Steve. That is really interesting. That solves that one for me. Now, can you tell me why sometimes when someone sends an email, it may be time stamped a few minutes to a few hours before it comes in. For instance, their email says 9:02AM and it comes in at 3:23PM (they are in the same timezone).

 

[Fangorn]

Thank you, Steve. That is really interesting. That solves that one for me. Now, can you tell me why sometimes when someone sends an email, it may be time stamped a few minutes to a few hours before it comes in. For instance, their email says 9:02AM and it comes in at 3:23PM (they are in the same timezone).

Again, without going too deep into the technical weeds, the types of oddities you're describing are generally also due to the nature of networks and how the internet works.

When you send an email, your ISP's server has to translate the human readable address into something computers can deal with. There are specific protocols for how this happens and several layers of server hierarchy to go through to find the correct IP address for the intended inbox. Then the message is sent from server to server along one of possibly millions of paths to get there. At each new server, the message is copied and the copy sent to the next server in the chain. There will be dozens, if not hundreds of intermediary servers scattered all over the world, involved in the transmission of one simple email. At each step, there is a remote possibility of that server not functioning correctly. Those malfunctions can be simple transmission errors, that resolve themselves in milliseconds, or it could be something more serious that allows the server to accept new messages and queue them up, but prevents it from sending the messages on. It's this latter situation that results in a message being sent at 9:02am but not arriving until 3:23pm. It took 6 hours for the server to be reset or physically repaired and your message was stuck there until service was restored. And depending on how much traffic that server processes, it could take a long time to work off the backlog once service is restored.

You'll sometimes see the opposite as well - messages "arriving" before they were "sent". This happens when a message is not copied correctly and a server attempts to reconstruct it. When that happens the creation timestamp may be reset by a server several timezones away. So the 9:02am becomes 4:52pm and the message arrives before it was sent.

To complicate things even more, email messages are typically broken up into small, fixed length data packets - meaning your single message may now consist of many pieces, each of which is following a different path with an unknown number of servers involved. The final message is not delivered until all the pieces can be put back together again.

Sorry this is so long, I hope it helps some.

Steve