Buy Saratoga instead of Boardwalk, pass Go and collect $200...

[Oozma_Kappa]

We think we would like to purchase a DVC, so im wondering if anyone would like to give me give their opinion on my scenario. Below is our past trip history along with a spreadsheet on SSR I whipped up. I would like to buy on the low side of points and add later. I'm very risk adverse. My heart wants to pull the trigger on Boardwalk or Grand Floridian, but I feel like I'll pick the "Go to Financial Jail card" (especially if I was that close to Jellyrolls!). I think I'd rather go a la Warren Buffet and invest the extra money in my Disney stock instead (although I'm hating espn right about now). I don't care about being in the Mickey Mouse club, but we love being on property. I just want the best possible deal on resale.

Most of my questions have been answered by lurking the forums, however... Are we the ideal DVC candidate?
Does the spreadsheet make sense?
Can I fulfill mom's dream of staying in VGF once in her life? Possible with SSR points? (It seems possible in Aug maybe.)

The spreadsheet is based on the following:
Column B- what i would earn if I invested the buy in amount, went conservative at 4%. I didn't include dues, because that equivalent would be spent on hotels anyway.
I used PO FQ, because that is equivalent in happiness factor from the looks of SSR studios. Location is also similar. Used $220/nt rate at 3% escalation.

I started coming to WDW in 2009, because I heard the marathon was fun. I've since retired from rundisney in 2015 due to over crowded courses and high race fees. We still go during race weekends though for family, although they may tire of them too one day. We have only come during race weekends so far, although it may change in the future once we have kids.
Frequent travelers are me, husband, mom, dad, and sister (plus a kid or 2 hopefully soon).

2009- Jan, AS Sports, 2 adults
2011- Jan, AS Sports, 2 adults
2012- Jan, AS Sports, 5 adults, 2 rooms
2013- Jan, Windor Hills condo, 5 adults
2014- Jan, Windor Hills condo, 5 adults
2014- Oct, PO FQ, 4 adults, 1 room
2015- Jan, Pop, 7 adults, 2 kids, 3 rooms
2015- Nov, PO FQ, 5 adults, 2 rooms
2016- Jan, AoA Lion King suite, 4 adults, plus cruise 2 adults (castaway cay challenge)
2016- April, Pop, 2 adults
2017- Jan, would love to rent some SSR points at a good deal, 8 adults

As you can see that initial marathon created a monster ;-).

Thanks!!

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

Not sure how to post the spreadsheet screenshot...

 

[mynameisnobody]

If you use an image hosting site like photobucket, upload the photo there then paste the URL into blank after clicking the Image button.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

If you use an image hosting site like photobucket, upload the photo there then paste the URL into blank after clicking the Image button.

Can i just upload to this site? I don't have an account for that, and would be the image I hopefully would ever upload.

 

[Kimly]

SSR from what I have read, and I personally own points at SSR, is the resort that makes the economic sense. With years remaining, initial cost and dues taken in as a factor. And yes of course you will be able to stay at VGF or any of the other DVC resorts as long as you have the points and make the reservation at 7 months out. We have only owned two and a half years and we have stayed at every Disney World DVC resort many times over except VWL.

 

[CMNJ]

We think we would like to purchase a DVC, so im wondering if anyone would like to give me give their opinion on my scenario. Below is our past trip history along with a spreadsheet on SSR I whipped up. I would like to buy on the low side of points and add later. I'm very risk adverse. My heart wants to pull the trigger on Boardwalk or Grand Floridian, but I feel like I'll pick the "Go to Financial Jail card" (especially if I was that close to Jellyrolls!). I think I'd rather go a la Warren Buffet and invest the extra money in my Disney stock instead (although I'm hating espn right about now). I don't care about being in the Mickey Mouse club, but we love being on property. I just want the best possible deal on resale.

Most of my questions have been answered by lurking the forums, however... Are we the ideal DVC candidate?
Does the spreadsheet make sense?
Can I fulfill mom's dream of staying in VGF once in her life? Possible with SSR points? (It seems possible in Aug maybe.)

The spreadsheet is based on the following:
Column B- what i would earn if I invested the buy in amount, went conservative at 4%. I didn't include dues, because that equivalent would be spent on hotels anyway.
I used PO FQ, because that is equivalent in happiness factor from the looks of SSR studios. Location is also similar. Used $220/nt rate at 3% escalation.

I started coming to WDW in 2009, because I heard the marathon was fun. I've since retired from rundisney in 2015 due to over crowded courses and high race fees. We still go during race weekends though for family, although they may tire of them too one day. We have only come during race weekends so far, although it may change in the future once we have kids.
Frequent travelers are me, husband, mom, dad, and sister (plus a kid or 2 hopefully soon).

2009- Jan, AS Sports, 2 adults
2011- Jan, AS Sports, 2 adults
2012- Jan, AS Sports, 5 adults, 2 rooms
2013- Jan, Windor Hills condo, 5 adults
2014- Jan, Windor Hills condo, 5 adults
2014- Oct, PO FQ, 4 adults, 1 room
2015- Jan, Pop, 7 adults, 2 kids, 3 rooms
2015- Nov, PO FQ, 5 adults, 2 rooms
2016- Jan, AoA Lion King suite, 4 adults, plus cruise 2 adults (castaway cay challenge)
2016- April, Pop, 2 adults
2017- Jan, would love to rent some SSR points at a good deal, 8 adults

As you can see that initial marathon created a monster ;-).

Thanks!!

I noticed you said you want BWV or VGF-are you ok with staying at SSR often if you can't trade out? I noticed you said you travel for race weekends and I saw Oct and Nov vacations listed also-those will all be very difficult to obtain without the home resort advantage especially if you are looking for a studio-BWV is much easier to trade into vs VGF but can be very difficult in the fall and other popular times (like marathon weekend). As long as you are ok with SSR it is definitely cheaper to own there.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

Im ok with SSR for sure. It's the same satisfaction level as PO FQ. I would just like to be locked into something nicer than Pop or an offsite condo. I realize race weekends would be booked up, but if i could snag VGF for mom once at anytime of the year, i would go just for her to stay there. Oct was Tower of Terror 10miler and Nov was Wine and Dine race.

 

[CMNJ]

Im ok with SSR for sure. It's the same satisfaction level as PO FQ. I would just like to be locked into something nicer than Pop or an offsite condo. I realize race weekends would be booked up, but if i could snag VGF for mom once at anytime of the year, i would go just for her to stay there. Oct was Tower of Terror 10miler and Nov was Wine and Dine race.

Here's a good post about availability
http://www.disboards.com/threads/pr...-some-1-bedrooms-vgc-update-10-21-15.3419112/

 

[_auroraborealis_]

VGF is also easier to get as a 1BR.

 

[Supplanter]

Best plan for vacations at peak times is to just book your home resort at 11 months so you're guaranteed, then if something is available that's better at 7 months you swap them out. If not, it's not like ssr isn't a great place to stay

 

[Dean]

We think we would like to purchase a DVC, so im wondering if anyone would like to give me give their opinion on my scenario. Below is our past trip history along with a spreadsheet on SSR I whipped up. I would like to buy on the low side of points and add later. I'm very risk adverse. My heart wants to pull the trigger on Boardwalk or Grand Floridian, but I feel like I'll pick the "Go to Financial Jail card" (especially if I was that close to Jellyrolls!). I think I'd rather go a la Warren Buffet and invest the extra money in my Disney stock instead (although I'm hating espn right about now). I don't care about being in the Mickey Mouse club, but we love being on property. I just want the best possible deal on resale.

Most of my questions have been answered by lurking the forums, however... Are we the ideal DVC candidate?
Does the spreadsheet make sense?
Can I fulfill mom's dream of staying in VGF once in her life? Possible with SSR points? (It seems possible in Aug maybe.)

The spreadsheet is based on the following:
Column B- what i would earn if I invested the buy in amount, went conservative at 4%. I didn't include dues, because that equivalent would be spent on hotels anyway.
I used PO FQ, because that is equivalent in happiness factor from the looks of SSR studios. Location is also similar. Used $220/nt rate at 3% escalation.

I started coming to WDW in 2009, because I heard the marathon was fun. I've since retired from rundisney in 2015 due to over crowded courses and high race fees. We still go during race weekends though for family, although they may tire of them too one day. We have only come during race weekends so far, although it may change in the future once we have kids.
Frequent travelers are me, husband, mom, dad, and sister (plus a kid or 2 hopefully soon).

2009- Jan, AS Sports, 2 adults
2011- Jan, AS Sports, 2 adults
2012- Jan, AS Sports, 5 adults, 2 rooms
2013- Jan, Windor Hills condo, 5 adults
2014- Jan, Windor Hills condo, 5 adults
2014- Oct, PO FQ, 4 adults, 1 room
2015- Jan, Pop, 7 adults, 2 kids, 3 rooms
2015- Nov, PO FQ, 5 adults, 2 rooms
2016- Jan, AoA Lion King suite, 4 adults, plus cruise 2 adults (castaway cay challenge)
2016- April, Pop, 2 adults
2017- Jan, would love to rent some SSR points at a good deal, 8 adults

As you can see that initial marathon created a monster ;-).

Thanks!!

Assuming you'll only use for DVC, can plan at least 7 months out and will be paying cash, DVC should be a good choice for you. It may not save you money but it will upgrade your experience for similar cost. SSR should work fine as described. You should be able to get into GF at some point with effort but likely not every time. It will be a better value than BWV which is a decent value in it's own right, esp if you use standard view. I would discourage much buying a little at a time. It doesn't sound like you need a ton of points. Buying 50 now and 25 later isn't a good plan IMO. Buying 150 now and 150 later likely is a good plan. It sounds like you're looking at a max of around 150 points based on what you're sharing. Ultimately DVC will cost you money in all likelihood but it will give you more value though it depends on how you use it.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

I think i needed to 10 posts to upload anything lol. I've been lurking more than posting. Here is my spreadsheet. We would start with 200 points, but yes Dean, I really feel like 300 is the right amount. We also might go in Nov. of this year. Our first trip without a race attached gasp! I realize Disney has steered a lot of fans into running, but running has steered me into being a fan.

 

[Canadian Disney Mom]

We own at SSR and we are very happy we made that decision. We initially bought pts directly from Disney when it was for sale (2005) and have since added on via resale at a very low price per point. We thought about adding on at a different resort instead of the SSR resale, but decided that with the low price per point and the 2054 expiry and the success we have had booking at other resorts on our current SSR points, we decided to stay with what we had. I think based on what you have said, SSR would be a good option for you too.

 

[Dean]

We think we would like to purchase a DVC, so im wondering if anyone would like to give me give their opinion on my scenario. Below is our past trip history along with a spreadsheet on SSR I whipped up. I would like to buy on the low side of points and add later. I'm very risk adverse. My heart wants to pull the trigger on Boardwalk or Grand Floridian, but I feel like I'll pick the "Go to Financial Jail card" (especially if I was that close to Jellyrolls!). I think I'd rather go a la Warren Buffet and invest the extra money in my Disney stock instead (although I'm hating espn right about now). I don't care about being in the Mickey Mouse club, but we love being on property. I just want the best possible deal on resale.

Most of my questions have been answered by lurking the forums, however... Are we the ideal DVC candidate?
Does the spreadsheet make sense?
Can I fulfill mom's dream of staying in VGF once in her life? Possible with SSR points? (It seems possible in Aug maybe.)

The spreadsheet is based on the following:
Column B- what i would earn if I invested the buy in amount, went conservative at 4%. I didn't include dues, because that equivalent would be spent on hotels anyway.
I used PO FQ, because that is equivalent in happiness factor from the looks of SSR studios. Location is also similar. Used $220/nt rate at 3% escalation.

I started coming to WDW in 2009, because I heard the marathon was fun. I've since retired from rundisney in 2015 due to over crowded courses and high race fees. We still go during race weekends though for family, although they may tire of them too one day. We have only come during race weekends so far, although it may change in the future once we have kids.
Frequent travelers are me, husband, mom, dad, and sister (plus a kid or 2 hopefully soon).

2009- Jan, AS Sports, 2 adults
2011- Jan, AS Sports, 2 adults
2012- Jan, AS Sports, 5 adults, 2 rooms
2013- Jan, Windor Hills condo, 5 adults
2014- Jan, Windor Hills condo, 5 adults
2014- Oct, PO FQ, 4 adults, 1 room
2015- Jan, Pop, 7 adults, 2 kids, 3 rooms
2015- Nov, PO FQ, 5 adults, 2 rooms
2016- Jan, AoA Lion King suite, 4 adults, plus cruise 2 adults (castaway cay challenge)
2016- April, Pop, 2 adults
2017- Jan, would love to rent some SSR points at a good deal, 8 adults

As you can see that initial marathon created a monster ;-).

Thanks!!

You've got to include dues on the DVC side. Even though you'd spend money, likely more, on the cash side, it is part of your expenses just like taxes are for the cash side. Actually the way I do it for resale is I use 1% for half and 8% for half which is 4.5% but the end point is very close and they are all guesses. I'd use 3%, 3.5% or 4% for inflation on both the taxes and the cash side, I personally use 4 but all are reasonable. The other point is the proper comparison is to points for a single studio compared to cash for a single villa, in this case at PO. I also use a 20-30% discount on the cash side unless it's peak time and a minimum of 10% discount. From a dollar standpoint I feel you need 20% savings or 20% increase value to justify proceeding. Once you run all the numbers I think you'll find they're fairly close to break even long term to slightly favorable for buying DVC. I feel a DVC studio at break even or close to it is easily a 20% additional value.

I think i needed to 10 posts to upload anything lol. I've been lurking more than posting. Here is my spreadsheet. We would start with 200 points, but yes Dean, I really feel like 300 is the right amount. We also might go in Nov. of this year. Our first trip without a race attached gasp! I realize Disney has steered a lot of fans into running, but running has steered me into being a fan.

For 300 total as a plan, I'd buy 150-200 (best contract that fits UY and points availability) and try it for a couple of years. You may find you really don't need more. 200 points should easily give you a studio just under 2 weeks a year. Just realize as soon as you start staying in larger villas, the $$ savings goes out the window for a 1 BR and is comparable to 2 cash rooms for a 2 BR.

 

[Oozma_Kappa]

Thanks everyone!
Dean, yes, I agree about trying it out first with 200, maybe even 150 to cover just January, since it's a little scary doing this. (I have always said I would never buy a timeshare!)

When we stayed at PO last Nov., it was $175 with the runner discount, so I guess I will update to that price as my year 1, then update cash hotel inflation at 4%.

Not understanding the 1% and 8%. What are you doing there? I did include dues in column C.
Thanks!

 

[Dean]

Thanks everyone!
Dean, yes, I agree about trying it out first with 200, maybe even 150 to cover just January, since it's a little scary doing this. (I have always said I would never buy a timeshare!)

When we stayed at PO last Nov., it was $175 with the runner discount, so I guess I will update to that price as my year 1, then update cash hotel inflation at 4%.

Not understanding the 1% and 8%. What are you doing there? I did include dues in column C.
Thanks!

Just use 4% or 4.5% earnings on the full purchase price and you'll be there. The idea behind using 1% earnings on half and 8% on half is the realization that if you're using a cash account to pay for vacations, it will be drained over time in this scenario and the fact I use long term investment rates when the time frame is 5 yrs or more.

 

[ziravan]

Honestly, if you want to stay in the fall and like BWV because of race weekends, I'd toss the math and buy where you want to stay.

There are all kinds of reasons why we shouldn't have chosen BCV looking at the math. Shorter end date, higher cost, MF, etc.

It's where we want to stay.

I don't regret buying where I want to stay.

At the end of the day, the math has to make sense but it doesn't have to add up. You're not looking for the best bang for your buck as this isn't an investment, it's a luxury purchase.

If you want a porsche, then don't buy a mustang because it make better financial sense as a sports car.

That misses the point of a luxury purchase.

If you want a Porsche, buy a Porsche. Especially if you plan on staying during F&W.

(I'm not knocking SSR. If SSR is your Porsche, buy there. In that case, BWV would be the Mustang.)

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

IMO, the best way to share a spreadsheet is to use Google Docs. It helps because the viewer can also see the formulas you used to create the spreadsheet. For me, anyway, it helps so I can figure out what you are trying to do.

 

[Supplanter]

Just realize as soon as you start staying in larger villas, the $$ savings goes out the window for a 1 BR and is comparable to 2 cash rooms for a 2 BR.

While I'm onboard with most of your comment, I kinda disagree with this part. We have 4 young kids (oldest turns 10 this year) and weve finally hit the point where a studio type hotel room doesnt do it for us. Our last trip to aulani was the first we tried out a larger space on a vacation. Having a washer/ dryer, kitchen, etc... Is soooo much nicer than having 2 studio type rooms I dont think you can fairly compare those two. The one is more expensive, but brings a MUCH different experience imo. That's the reason were we're buying this, we can't go back to studio type rooms hahaha

 

[SaraSpringsIsHome]

We have been DVC members since 2006-- all of our points are at SSR.

I think in those 10 years, we have stayed at SSR maybe 4 or 5 times.

We have stayed at (off the top of my head):
BLT in a 2 bedroom in May twice
AKL studios many times, as well as a 2 bedroom in July
OKW studio in January
BWV studio and 1 bedroom in September
VWL in January once
BCV studio in January twice, as well as having a 1 bedroom booked for 9 nights in November this year

We like Saratoga Springs well enough and I'm sure will stay there again in the future, but we prefer other resorts and enjoy the flexibility of booking different resorts 7 months out.

So... I don't know if this is at all helpful! We are glad to be SSR owners, even if we rarely stay there. We tend to travel in early September (before F&W festival), late January (after marathon), and late May (when F&G festival ended earlier). We aren't too picky which resort we stay at, just happy to stay at a gorgeous DVC villa!