Critique my purchase plan ... for a 2nd DVC contract! (UPDATE post #35)

kboo

DIS Veteran
Joined
Mar 10, 2014
So - for anyone who's been following the saga, DH has ok'd a 2nd contract for an EP resort! So here's the skinny:

Our "plan" is for annual visits to WDW for about a week, and we'd bank points and alternate home resort advantage for a larger unit (1-2 br) each time.

Times we will likely visit, in order of likelihood as of right now:
LATE summer (end of August/Labor Day - ODD and I have birthdays a week apart)
Thanksgiving or Christmas (YDD birthday is Thanksgiving)
Easter week (weather is stinky at home and for skiing)
President's week
DH birthday (around July 4)

We currently have 185pts Feb UY at BLT (25 pts direct), so I'm thinking an August or September UY, about 200 points, at either BWV or BCV would work? Using that contract every other year would get us Sunday - Sat in a 2BR, or longer (or more trips) in a 1BR. As for $/point, back when I was looking in the spring, I would have thought $100pp for BCV and under $100pp for BWV, whichever came first, would be good. But what are people's thoughts now? We have some time to wait since we have enough points for 2 2018 trips already, so the earliest we'd use the new contract would be for a 2019 trip.

Is there anything else I'm missing? Thanks!
 
In my mind, everything in your scenario says wait to see what happens with Riviera. You are clearly raising disney children, so the 25 year limit on those two resorts could possibly become an issue. Plus if Riviera is awesome, it could drive the price of BCC and BWV down. You have the luxury of not having to worry about it for a year or so, so that fits perfectly into that timeline.
 
In my mind, everything in your scenario says wait to see what happens with Riviera. You are clearly raising disney children, so the 25 year limit on those two resorts could possibly become an issue. Plus if Riviera is awesome, it could drive the price of BCC and BWV down. You have the luxury of not having to worry about it for a year or so, so that fits perfectly into that timeline.
Just to be clear, you're saying that Riviera could affect BCV/BWV prices, but not "see if Riviera is worth buying direct"?

We are raising Disney children - not intentionally but after so many recent trips, the kids are obsessed with it (!!), but DH and I are older parents, so we will be in our 70s by 2042. I'm thinking that if they are interested in hanging on to the BCV/BWV at that point, they can decide if they want to renew, assuming Disney offers current owners first dibs to buy in to BCV/BWV "extended". And we still have BLT... I do have a hard time seeing how we would want Riviera.

I'm also wondering, with SW and TS lands opening in 2019, if we've missed the window on low-ish EP resort prices.

Another question: should care that much about UY? If we go in the fall, over fall frenzy, Thanksgiving or Xmas and have to cancel on short notice, that reservation could probably be rented pretty easily. That would potentially widen the # of contracts to bid on.
 


I'm also wondering, with SW and TS lands opening in 2019, if we've missed the window on low-ish EP resort prices.

This is the main point I was trying to make. Not sure if you are interested in purchasing Riviera or not, I could just see its place in the market helping to calm demand for BCV and BWV. It looks like we are in the worst possible spot to try to buy into Epcot area resorts. They are nice, uniquely close to two presently growing parks, and we are in a strong economy. While they will always continue to be nice resorts, the other two factors could easily change in the next couple of years. If you are not in a rush to buy, its worth waiting to see how things play out in my mind.

As for the 25 year expiration, it drove me away from considering those resorts. It seems I am a bit younger than you, but my children are similar in age, with a 5 and almost 3 year. Buying into BLT with a 43 year contract gives me 12 good years before they become too busy in their late HS/College years, 8 years of sporadic visits/renting out during that time, and then another 23 years of taking them as young adults, and eventually as a grandparent. Your BLT contract is identical to mine, so you can still do that with that resort, but it would be sad to see you get attached to another resort and then lose it right when you are hitting the grandparent groove. Not a killer for you, though, as you are still set elsewhere, just something to consider.
 
this is a tough question to answer -- so many variables at play. Riviera could drive prices down at the Crescent lake hotels if the gondola system is a hit. However, it's still hard to beat the 5-12 minute walk to epcot that both of those resorts offer. If you're trying to keep little kids in a stroller as much as possible, a gondola is not likely going to be a good substitute (unless they'll let you wheel it directly on).
 
I would totally wait to see what the Riviera will bring... always best to make an informed decision :) But if you are a die-hard BCV or BWVer, then just bite the bullet... I don't really see those prices dropping too much with everything that's on the horizon for the Epcot/HS areas. Bias alert: BCV is just the best :lovestruc
 


I had a follow up question - asking for critique as well:

I was thinking of getting a different UY and not mixing points from the contracts, and using them for different stays. But - wondering if it may make sense to look at Feb UY as well (same UY as our BLT). I *think* the only con is that if we had to cancel a trip in the fall after our banking deadline had passed (a F&W weekend, Thanksgiving or Christmas/New Year's would be the only times we'd go in the October-January time period), we would not be able to get those points back. But those are high demand times for an EP resort anyway. If we did have to cancel one of those trips, we should be able to rent the reservation pretty easily, right? In which case the down side isn't too bad, and the upside would be being able to see and manage all our points with one log in. What say you, DVC gurus?
 
I would totally wait to see what the Riviera will bring... always best to make an informed decision :) But if you are a die-hard BCV or BWVer, then just bite the bullet... I don't really see those prices dropping too much with everything that's on the horizon for the Epcot/HS areas. Bias alert: BCV is just the best :lovestruc

Yeah, we are probably die hard BWV/BCV - just made an offer on a contract today but we never got past my opening offer, lol. The seller's asking price was on the reasonable-but-high side but they were unwilling to go much below that (they did not counter; the broker indicated that the seller had previously turned down a higher offer without a counter), and we are not in a hurry, so I wasn't going to bid against myself. *shrug*
 
The hard part about predicting Dvc useage into the future is that it’s impossible to know what it holds.

I envision family trips with grandkids and giving contracts to kids but things change.

I assume I’m in the same age range as you but my girls are older- out of college now. No grandkids in horizon yet.

We are able to plan a trip to Aulani for January, 2018 but kids have significant others now and our travel habits have really changed as a result. Planning is now done 7 months or less. I have no control over their work, vacations... and even though they are big Disney fans it’s been tough using Dvc. I had a ton of points go into holding last year at the last minute. I was able to use them but point being if I was going to add on right now I think I’d go with the least expensive option of ssr. You may want to think about the pitfalls of Dvc with grown kids and perhaps pencil out some alternatives such as a less expensive buy in and ownership option for 7 months bookings. We have our AKV and Aulani subsidized and I wanted to add on at CCV but after some thought I’m thinking about ssr more and more and also thinking about holding off till next recession.
 
The hard part about predicting Dvc useage into the future is that it’s impossible to know what it holds.

I envision family trips with grandkids and giving contracts to kids but things change.

I assume I’m in the same age range as you but my girls are older- out of college now. No grandkids in horizon yet.

We are able to plan a trip to Aulani for January, 2018 but kids have significant others now and our travel habits have really changed as a result. Planning is now done 7 months or less. I have no control over their work, vacations... and even though they are big Disney fans it’s been tough using Dvc. I had a ton of points go into holding last year at the last minute. I was able to use them but point being if I was going to add on right now I think I’d go with the least expensive option of ssr. You may want to think about the pitfalls of Dvc with grown kids and perhaps pencil out some alternatives such as a less expensive buy in and ownership option for 7 months bookings. We have our AKV and Aulani subsidized and I wanted to add on at CCV but after some thought I’m thinking about ssr more and more and also thinking about holding off till next recession.

Thanks! Yeah my kids are 6 and 2, so we are really only looking at the next 10 years, and certainly will reassess at that point, and perhaps shed a contract if renting doesn't work out. Thing is, for our current (next 10 years) travel patterns, we are looking at Thanksgiving and Xmas and Easter break, with some summers mixed in. Oddly, I am the only one in our family without a holiday weekend birthday - though I am late summer. DH is July 3, ODD is Labor Day weekend, and YDD is Thanksgiving. Given YDD's birthday, we wanted to buy somewhere where we would like to be on Thanksgiving, assuming that we wouldn't likely be able to stay anywhere else at 7 mo. Once our kids are grown, DH and I will be retired and if we can, we will take shorter trips by ourselves. (Too bad, kids!) I guess they could squish on the sofa bed in our 1BR if they really wanted to come. LOL.
 
I had a follow up question - asking for critique as well:

I was thinking of getting a different UY and not mixing points from the contracts, and using them for different stays. But - wondering if it may make sense to look at Feb UY as well (same UY as our BLT). I *think* the only con is that if we had to cancel a trip in the fall after our banking deadline had passed (a F&W weekend, Thanksgiving or Christmas/New Year's would be the only times we'd go in the October-January time period), we would not be able to get those points back. But those are high demand times for an EP resort anyway. If we did have to cancel one of those trips, we should be able to rent the reservation pretty easily, right? In which case the down side isn't too bad, and the upside would be being able to see and manage all our points with one log in. What say you, DVC gurus?

The different uy works well for some. I’m a major planner and thought I could easily manage 2 uy’s. It got pretty ugly to the point I am thinking about getting rid of one. Had to cancel last minute so points went into holding. Then to use them we ended up in a much more expensive room. Then went to borrow mode. cancellations on borrowed points becomes a mess. Couldn’t un borrow. All these issues can come up with kids when they become adults. Then there’s last minute trips to DL - when all of a sudden the direct points can come in handy for hotel only reservation. I know it’s a terrible waste on points and normally wouldn’t even think about it but once I had adult kids the plan 11 months in advance became an issue for me.

I think once my kids are married and we have grandkids it will go back to plan ahead and more predictable but who knows. Just a few things to think about. I’m actually going to be selling the off the odd uy year points and sticking with one uy after our January trip. It took just one messed up reservation for me to realize that 2 uy is a pain for me.
 
Thanks! Yeah my kids are 6 and 2, so we are really only looking at the next 10 years, and certainly will reassess at that point, and perhaps shed a contract if renting doesn't work out. Thing is, for our current (next 10 years) travel patterns, we are looking at Thanksgiving and Xmas and Easter break, with some summers mixed in. Oddly, I am the only one in our family without a holiday weekend birthday - though I am late summer. DH is July 3, ODD is Labor Day weekend, and YDD is Thanksgiving. Given YDD's birthday, we wanted to buy somewhere where we would like to be on Thanksgiving, assuming that we wouldn't likely be able to stay anywhere else at 7 mo. Once our kids are grown, DH and I will be retired and if we can, we will take shorter trips by ourselves. (Too bad, kids!) I guess they could squish on the sofa bed in our 1BR if they really wanted to come. LOL.
Fantasy trip would be in retirement to plan a winter away just husband and I at Dvc properties in least expensive rooms .. a month in a value studio at AKV, a month in hotel room at Aulani... math wise it would be affordable. Fun to pencil out anyways.

I met a gentleman at AKV a few years ago and he and his wife did very long stays.
 
I wouldn't wait on the Riveria personally. We just bought at BVW because we want to stay in October for F&W at a standard view studio which absolutely requires a 11 month home resort booking. When we did the math - we're going to save 50% off a cash room at POR where we stay pre-DVC. The savings DVC gives you vs cash-rate if you are a Disney family is too hard to pass up. I'll take 25 yrs of half off rooms and walking to EP and HS.
 
I wouldn't wait on the Riveria personally. We just bought at BVW because we want to stay in October for F&W at a standard view studio which absolutely requires a 11 month home resort booking. When we did the math - we're going to save 50% off a cash room at POR where we stay pre-DVC. The savings DVC gives you vs cash-rate if you are a Disney family is too hard to pass up. I'll take 25 yrs of half off rooms and walking to EP and HS.

I so agree with this. Walking to Epcot beats a gondola any day in my book.
 
I wouldn't wait on the Riveria personally. We just bought at BVW because we want to stay in October for F&W at a standard view studio which absolutely requires a 11 month home resort booking. When we did the math - we're going to save 50% off a cash room at POR where we stay pre-DVC. The savings DVC gives you vs cash-rate if you are a Disney family is too hard to pass up. I'll take 25 yrs of half off rooms and walking to EP and HS.
I so agree with this. Walking to Epcot beats a gondola any day in my book.

Same here! That's why we chose BLT for our first home resort. (and I actually like the theming) Also, a brisk walk helps rationalize the extra calories I eat at WDW.
 
Same here! That's why we chose BLT for our first home resort. (and I actually like the theming) Also, a brisk walk helps rationalize the extra calories I eat at WDW.

What if Riviera is awesome? With two teenagers, 2 bathrooms in a 1 BR plus a gondola ride would beat 1 bathroom and a 5 minute walk in my mind.
Luckily BLT has both!
 
What if Riviera is awesome? With two teenagers, 2 bathrooms in a 1 BR plus a gondola ride would beat 1 bathroom and a 5 minute walk in my mind.
Luckily BLT has both!

One of my D's and my DH are both afraid of heights. No chance they're taking the gondola!
 
One of my D's and my DH are both afraid of heights. No chance they're taking the gondola!

And there are times that members of my family refuse to follow one another into the bathroom.
I am one of four brothers all within 7 years of one another. When I was a kid we would stay in the fort wilderness trailers. I loved those trips, but still remember having to negotiate over who followed whom into the one bathroom when we returned from the parks.

I am not saying that any one resort or situation is any better than another, just that if someone is not in a rush to purchase, they should consider all options.
 
So... I made an offer on a too-good-to-be-true BWV contract (perfect UY, # of points, and fully loaded with 2016 points on...) and of course it's already gone. I told DH I had made the offer online and he was all, "wait so if they accept it we have to buy it?"
"Um, yeah, that's generally what an offer is. But it's probably sold already, and they won't accept it without a counter. If they counter at all."

(I am a lawyer. We have been married 20+ years. We have bought and sold plenty of real estate together over the years. I don't know how he could have misunderstood basic contracts concepts for so long. Then again, this may be why he is not a lawyer.) :rotfl2:

We followed with a discussion this morning about the possible pros and cons of various resorts, and we both were mulling over what would make the Riviera more compelling than BWV and BCV. It may be a lack of imagination on our part, but I can't think of anything. We *like* walking, and we've done the walk from the Boardwalk to DHS and EP. DH also wondered "what if Riviera is awesome", and I said if it is, we could always sell or rent BWV and buy there.

What if Riviera is awesome? With two teenagers, 2 bathrooms in a 1 BR plus a gondola ride would beat 1 bathroom and a 5 minute walk in my mind.
Luckily BLT has both!

I agree, I would consider the 2bath issue more strongly if we didn't already own BLT. I am still wondering what would make Riviera "awesome" though.
 

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