Direct price increase starting to impact resale market

DisDad-

Mouseketeer
Joined
Jan 4, 2016
I noticed a fully loaded PVB Feb UY 50 point contract listed with one of the major resalers at $185ppt, which is now a decent price considering direct prices are at $220. Also noticed a significant price increase at the GFV as well. How long before we see another price jump across the resale market?
 
With the direct price increases of Poly and VGF - i think those on the fence of selling are now going to go ahead because they can likely sell at or above what they actually paid for their contract. Even with the other older resorts those direct pricing also increased, so why would you sell AKV for $95 pp when direct is now $185-- sell for $130 because it is still a great deal compared to direct.

Crazy to think this but this might be the direction resale is being pushed. Might be what disney wants because for just a little more you can get all those wonderful perks and a free tote too!!
 
With the direct price increases of Poly and VGF - i think those on the fence of selling are now going to go ahead because they can likely sell at or above what they actually paid for their contract. Even with the other older resorts those direct pricing also increased, so why would you sell AKV for $95 pp when direct is now $185-- sell for $130 because it is still a great deal compared to direct.

Crazy to think this but this might be the direction resale is being pushed. Might be what disney wants because for just a little more you can get all those wonderful perks and a free tote too!!
But no DVC magic band slider!
 
I am sure this is what Disney is looking for - to drive the price up everywhere. They only have so much control over the situation, though. First, people need to decide if PVB is worth $85 more per point than SSR. Then, the market as a whole needs to stay strong, which is not entirely within Disney's control.
I saw their price change as being more reactive to the resale market increases this past fall than as a way to drive up resale prices. They might as well get theirs while all these resale sellers were able to make some good money off of others.
 


One thing about Poly and VGF resales, however ... presumably most of the sellers now are direct, original owners. WHY would they be selling now? (Same with CCV) VGF was held direct at $150 pp if I recall, and Poly even higher. Is there any reason other than financial distress, so soon after purchase? The sellers can't be making their $ back, even if they used a few years' worth of points. And it would be especially bad if they had financed.
 
As a Poly owner who purchased direct, I would still make a decent profit if I chose to sell right now (which I am not). Depending on the number of points purchased, the incentives at time of purchase influenced the actual buy-in cost per point. Also, factor in the previous year's "free" points that could be rented out, and the cost per point drops even more.
 
As a Poly owner who purchased direct, I would still make a decent profit if I chose to sell right now (which I am not). Depending on the number of points purchased, the incentives at time of purchase influenced the actual buy-in cost per point. Also, factor in the previous year's "free" points that could be rented out, and the cost per point drops even more.
Yes, but you are choosing not to sell right now, presumably because you plan to use your points. I am assuming that most direct purchasers of recent resorts, like Poly and CCV and even VGF still, did not buy in with a plan to sell in less than 5 years unless their circumstances have changed.

I *could* sell the resale contract I bought less than a year ago at probably $30pp more than I paid, which would probably cover all my administrative costs, etc. and net a small profit. And my 2 trips on points would have been for "free." But obviously I'm not going to do that since I didn't buy DVC to take a couple trips and then sell it again.
 


I'd gladly take the 22/pt or so more than I paid.

Anyone want 200 points to Poly? :) I'm hoping to see this phenomenon exactly, and this is why I pull the trigger when I did. If we figure out this was just a horrific decision for whatever reason (I don't believe we will), my hope was that the huge point increase would affect Resale prices to where i wouldn't completely lose my shorts after buying direct. The developer credits helped a lot. Effectively bought for 57 bucks less per point than you could now...in theory.
 
Yes, but you are choosing not to sell right now, presumably because you plan to use your points. I am assuming that most direct purchasers of recent resorts, like Poly and CCV and even VGF still, did not buy in with a plan to sell in less than 5 years unless their circumstances have changed.

I *could* sell the resale contract I bought less than a year ago at probably $30pp more than I paid, which would probably cover all my administrative costs, etc. and net a small profit. And my 2 trips on points would have been for "free." But obviously I'm not going to do that since I didn't buy DVC to take a couple trips and then sell it again.

One thing about Poly and VGF resales, however ... presumably most of the sellers now are direct, original owners. WHY would they be selling now? (Same with CCV) VGF was held direct at $150 pp if I recall, and Poly even higher. Is there any reason other than financial distress, so soon after purchase? The sellers can't be making their $ back, even if they used a few years' worth of points. And it would be especially bad if they had financed.

I initially answered in response to your original claims that the sellers can't be making their $ back or that a sale of PVB, CCV or VGF would likely be driven by financial distress.

In my case (after using my PVB points to book 86 nights, at PVB standard or lake view/BLT lake view/AUL ocean view), I would still walk away with a cash profit plus the value of the 86 nights if I chose to sell. As you point out, most direct buyers probably didn't buy in with a plan to sell this quickly, but they may also see that they will realize a decent return on investment and decide to cash out. Some people find that membership isn't what they thought it would be. Others change jobs and maybe that impacts their ability to travel. Families grow (marriage, birth, adoption) and shrink (divorce, death), which also influences travel habits. Others may want to get into the Riviera as their home resort, which wouldn't have been known when they first bought in to Poly, CCV or VGF.

I'm not arguing your point, just letting you know why I responded as I did :)
 
I think that listed fully loaded 50 point Poly contract at 185 ppt is still a good deal.
Think about the fact that you have 150 points available (17,18,19) and you could use all points to book a full week that could run over $5000k rack rate and still have retain ownership until 2066, your buy in is actually pretty minimal.
When you look at it that way, better than buying Disney direct at $220 ppt. And I think the recent $75 point buy in will actually push the resale market higher, not lower. There is no reason to buy an add on through Disney unless your looking for over the 75 point threshold. If anything, you’ll see increase in activity on lower point contracts on the resale side to save money.
 
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I initially answered in response to your original claims that the sellers can't be making their $ back or that a sale of PVB, CCV or VGF would likely be driven by financial distress.

In my case (after using my PVB points to book 86 nights, at PVB standard or lake view/BLT lake view/AUL ocean view), I would still walk away with a cash profit plus the value of the 86 nights if I chose to sell. As you point out, most direct buyers probably didn't buy in with a plan to sell this quickly, but they may also see that they will realize a decent return on investment and decide to cash out. Some people find that membership isn't what they thought it would be. Others change jobs and maybe that impacts their ability to travel. Families grow (marriage, birth, adoption) and shrink (divorce, death), which also influences travel habits. Others may want to get into the Riviera as their home resort, which wouldn't have been known when they first bought in to Poly, CCV or VGF.

I'm not arguing your point, just letting you know why I responded as I did :)

I agree - I think we are saying the same thing. Everyone repeatedly says buying DVC or any timeshare is not an investment and shouldn't be viewed as such. And it's a lot of time and still a fairly large chunk of money to tie up that way. And risky. And, if one has financed the purchase in the first place ... For the ones who are actually selling resale now (as opposed to calculating whether we'd break even or have had "free" vacations), I do still think there are either changed circumstances or changed minds.

I think that listed fully loaded 50 point Poly contract at 185 ppt is still a good deal.
Think about the fact that you have 150 points available (17,18,19) and you could use all points to book a full week that could run over $5000k rack rate and still have retain ownership until 2066, your buy in is actually pretty minimal.
When you look at it that way, better than buying Disney direct at $220 ppt. And I think the recent $75 point buy in will actually push the resale market higher, not lower. There is no reason to buy an add on through Disney unless your looking for over the 75 point threshold. If anything, you’ll see increase in activity on lower point contracts on the resale side to save money.

I hadn't really thought about it this way, but that's an interesting point. Most people looking for under 75 points are likely already owners looking to add on. This focuses selling, going forward, on new-to-DVC buyers as well as the new resorts.
 
I think that listed fully loaded 50 point Poly contract at 185 ppt is still a good deal.
Think about the fact that you have 150 points available (17,18,19) and you could use all points to book a full week that could run over $5000k rack rate and still have retain ownership until 2066, your buy in is actually pretty minimal.
When you look at it that way, better than buying Disney direct at $220 ppt. And I think the recent $75 point buy in will actually push the resale market higher, not lower. There is no reason to buy an add on through Disney unless your looking for over the 75 point threshold. If anything, you’ll see increase in activity on lower point contracts on the resale side to save money.

It's a good deal compared to the $220 that Disney is asking for it direct, but I think Disney way overestimated the value of Poly points. It would be like "only" charging $129,000 for a Chrysler because someone else is asking $145,000 for a Ford of the same model. It's still not worth it.
Raising the price on GFV and BCV made sense due to high demand, but as another thread showed, the high prices are driving people away from buying direct even at places such as GCV, which would never be heard of at more reasonable prices.
Unless all prices rise significantly across the board, these direct prices will not have a lasting and significant impact on resale.
 
It's a good deal compared to the $220 that Disney is asking for it direct, but I think Disney way overestimated the value of Poly points. It would be like "only" charging $129,000 for a Chrysler because someone else is asking $145,000 for a Ford of the same model. It's still not worth it.
Raising the price on GFV and BCV made sense due to high demand, but as another thread showed, the high prices are driving people away from buying direct even at places such as GCV, which would never be heard of at more reasonable prices.
Unless all prices rise significantly across the board, these direct prices will not have a lasting and significant impact on resale.

I don't think Disney overestimated the value of Poly points. The resort is sold out and they will still have people do direct add-ons at the higher prices. The impact of Disney's higher direct prices on resale will be an increase in resale prices (which we are already seeing), otherwise Disney will not waive ROFR.
 
I don't think Disney overestimated the value of Poly points. The resort is sold out and they will still have people do direct add-ons at the higher prices. The impact of Disney's higher direct prices on resale will be an increase in resale prices (which we are already seeing), otherwise Disney will not waive ROFR.

Compared to the fall, when direct sales prices were cheaper, we are actually seeing a dip in resale prices. The add-on situation is unique right now because there is a rush to get the 25 point add on for many buyers, at pretty much any cost, because 25 points even when jacked up to high costs is still cheaper than 75 points later on.
Once the dust settles and people compare one resort to another, it will be hard to justify the high cost of the Polynesian, which will drive its resale price down. It has 360 studios, the second most on property if my quick research is correct. The fact that it is only studios and bungalows limits its buyer population to people who are ok with the limited options, and the fact that there are so many studios means that 7 month bookers have a better chance of getting into one of those studios. If someone was going to pay $220, or the resale equivalent, for a large number of points, then why wouldn't they just go with GFV, which has a similar points structure, more housing options, and is smaller, meaning that it is harder to get into at 7 months?
I really don't think Disney made these changes to affect the resale market, rather, they want to make sure it is "worth it" to people if they want to get into these sold out resorts. There will always be a few people who it will be worth it to, but the majority of buyers will find that there money is better spent elsewhere, and that will drive down the average price of these resale contracts.
 
It's too soon to see the impact of anything on anything. There's not going to be an immediate large scale response in resale pricing based on these changes.

I believe the resale market will remain solid as long as the economy is strong. Disney's ROFR also keeps resale pricing high. If Disney really wanted to kill the resale market they could just ROFR every contract (but I doubt it makes practical or business sense to do that).
 
I guess the owner who just listed their VGC at $200 thinks the recent changes will drive up resale. Wow!
 

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