Disney's cash problem

A wounded Disney is at risk of a takeover. Remember during the last turndown when Comcast was talking about buying Disney? They ended up buying Universal in 2011. Now there are rumors that Apple could buy Disney with all of their cash.

Disney banked about 13 billion in 2019 from its movie business. What will become of the company if the movie industry never recovers?
 
A wounded Disney is at risk of a takeover. Remember during the last turndown when Comcast was talking about buying Disney? They ended up buying Universal in 2011. Now there are rumors that Apple could buy Disney with all of their cash.

Disney banked about 13 billion in 2019 from its movie business. What will become of the company if the movie industry never recovers?
That's the whole reason they bought FOX and created Disney+ - they saw the writing on the wall that the film industry is rapidly evolving, and are working to future-proof that side of their company. In less than 5 years, Disney+ will likely be bringing in more revenue than they did in box office last year.
 
That's the whole reason they bought FOX and created Disney+ - they saw the writing on the wall that the film industry is rapidly evolving, and are working to future-proof that side of their company. In less than 5 years, Disney+ will likely be bringing in more revenue than they did in box office last year.

I completely agree with this, but without trying to pivot the conversation, how do the movie theaters stay afloat with this business model? I have an opinion.....they won't.

I have to give kudos to Disney for creating an almost infallible revenue source (regardless if they were late to the dance).
 


I completely agree with this, but without trying to pivot the conversation, how do the movie theaters stay afloat with this business model? I have an opinion.....they won't.

I have to give kudos to Disney for creating an almost infallible revenue source (regardless if they were late to the dance).
Some theater chains will stay afloat, some will go under. I think chains like the Alamo Drafthouse that offer a premium experience will survive. Going there is a great experience, they offer restaurant style food served to your seat at normal restaurant prices and the theaters are always clean. The lower level theater chains will probably go under (looking at you AMC). There is still something to be said for seeing a movie in a theater without having any distractions from your phone or other things in your house. There are also movies that really need to be seen in a theater to get the full impact (1917 is a good example of this).
 
Some theater chains will stay afloat, some will go under. I think chains like the Alamo Drafthouse that offer a premium experience will survive. Going there is a great experience, they offer restaurant style food served to your seat at normal restaurant prices and the theaters are always clean. The lower level theater chains will probably go under (looking at you AMC). There is still something to be said for seeing a movie in a theater without having any distractions from your phone or other things in your house. There are also movies that really need to be seen in a theater to get the full impact (1917 is a good example of this).
I'm a little bummed about it personally, because AMC is arguably the best theater chain around me. All of their theaters are pretty well maintained and have the best picture/sound quality, best seating, and AMC A-List is a huge bonus. All the others in the area are just outdated and remind me of movie theaters in the 90s.
 
Isn't this just a case of being proactive and looking at gaining cash reserves?
Bingo. They're paying 2% above the treasury rate, not exactly a panic buy. Their annual interest due will be something like $330 million, that's a lot of money but at the same time a tiny fraction of the $11 billion dollars they made in Net Income last year.
Anyone who heard the quarterly call disney is burning cash at a fast rate. No fault of disney's and they couldn't predict this happening, but they are burning cash at a fast pace. We found out why alot of construction stopped at least to preserve cash for things that hadn't been paid for.
Don't assume that the rate Disney burned cash in March is the rate Disney is burning cash now, or the rate Disney will be burning cash in 3 months if this drags on. It is pretty easy to stop spending money when your business is halted, and there are thousands of white collar employees they can lay off if they need to later. Not only are they no longer paying front line workers, but think of all the food they had to throw away. Think of all the Flower and Garden merch they'll never sell. Think of how much they spent on advertising that they had already contracted and couldn't turn off. There's a pretty big list of things that are expensive when you close, once, but then you can avoid having as expenses while you remain closed.

And also don't confuse burning cash with losing money. Disney has a LOT of amoritized expenses and depreciating infrastructure that they paid for years ago, but "count" against the company now. For example, Disney capitalizes Theme Park rides and major refurbishments for 20 years. That means that every quarter, their expenses show 1/80th of the cost of new expenses like SW:GE, but also things like the construction of Pandora, Expedition Everest, Mission Space and the Journey Into Imagination with Figment redo. But the cash for those was paid out a long time ago. They'll lose a lot more money than they burn cash.

And on the Flip Side, ESPN is still collecting $8 a month from 80 million households, sports or no sports. The NYT reported that they're MORE profitable now than with sports, because they're not flying thousands of people around the country each month, and that's more than covering the lost ad revenue.

A wounded Disney is at risk of a takeover. Remember during the last turndown when Comcast was talking about buying Disney? They ended up buying Universal in 2011. Now there are rumors that Apple could buy Disney with all of their cash.

Disney banked about 13 billion in 2019 from its movie business. What will become of the company if the movie industry never recovers?
Apple/Disney rumors have been around ever since Bob Iger showed up on stage at the iPod Video launch event in 2005. Bob Iger said in his book that Steve Job would have bought out Disney if he hadn't died. But I think that ship has sailed. Apple certainly could do it, but Disney's cash situation is not going to be a determining factor in that unless the cash becomes zero. The stock price is the determining factor in that.
 


Now there is a rumor that Amazon may buy AMC. AMC is currently owned by the Chinese and their plans for it are most likely over. Amazon may become a leader in movie production in the future so it might make sense to them to buy it for next to nothing. There was an article in Fortune on 5/11 that talked about how AMC’s stock went up 56% on the rumor.
 
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I would think Apple would purchase Netflix over Disney. It could afford either one. Netflix is a better fit for Apple's business model. They want services they can sell on there devices worldwide and charge a monthly fee, like the Beats audio acquisition. Netflix fits perfectly. Are they that interested in running Theme Parks and Cruise ships and cable channels and network television stations? Why pay a huge premium and spin all those things off. And Disney's streaming ventures are just taking off. They will require a ton of money and energy over the next few years. Netflix just seems to make more sense for Apple. Or AT&T for that matter. ATT has a ton of content and streaming services, HBO, WB, etc if that's what they want and that massive wireless network might come in handy for all those Apple products.
 
Now there is a rumor that Amazon may buy AMC. AMC is currently owned by the Chinese and their plans for it are most likely over. Amazon may become a leader in movie production in the future so it might make sense to them to buy it for next to nothing. There was an article in Fortune on 5/11 that talked about how AMC’s stock went up 56% on the rumor.
This was debunked. Amazon was looking to purchase the AMC TV network (The Walking Dead, Better Call Saul, etc.), not AMC theaters. AMC Theaters' stock went up significantly and went right back down when the correction was released.
 

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