Hurricane Irma?

L

Lilly0704

Earning My Ears
Joined
Mar 8, 2017
I know there is already a thread about this subject, but I'm having a hard time deciphering the info I'm looking for. We will be in Disney from September 6 to 11. Flying out on the 11th. I see what case scenarios have Irma hitting Orlando on the 10th? If that's correct, what exactly does that mean? I'm not concerned with rain so much, we can deal with rain. My concern is will it be dangerous if that is when it hits? Will we be able to fly out safely? I know it's early for any real answers. But I've never dealt with a hurricane before so I have no idea what to expect.
 
Lilly0704 said:
I know there is already a thread about this subject, but I'm having a hard time deciphering the info I'm looking for. We will be in Disney from September 6 to 11. Flying out on the 11th. I see what case scenarios have Irma hitting Orlando on the 10th? If that's correct, what exactly does that mean? I'm not concerned with rain so much, we can deal with rain. My concern is will it be dangerous if that is when it hits? Will we be able to fly out safely? I know it's early for any real answers. But I've never dealt with a hurricane before so I have no idea what to expect.
Click to expand...

You're right. It's too early for real answers. It all depends on the storm track, strength, and timing. If the hurricane hits the Orlando area on the day you are to fly out, your flight will be cancelled. If it hits while you are at WDW, parks will be closed and you will be confined to your room for a period of time. But right now, no one really knows where this storm will go. It could move back out to the Atlantic as it moves north. It could take a track up towards the Carolinas. It could go more into the Gulf. Or it could hit Florida dead on. Just keep an eye on it.

Oh, and we're supposed to fly down on the 8th and be there through the 17th. I'm really hoping it tracks back out into the Atlantic.
 
Here's a repost of my response from a 2015 Hurricane watch thread-
We arrived the day Hurricane Charley hit in 2004. We were on one of the last flights in before they closed MCO. Parks were closed that evening and the next morning. We had stayed at a Best Western DTD the evening of the hurricane as our package at POFQ started the next day. WDW was the best place to be as they have their own power grid. Surrounding areas were in bad shape but WDW was already in cleanup mode and getting parks up and running. Many people were stranded on property and they opened excess rooms for their employees IIRC. Here is a link to an article from Allears.net -http://www.allears.net/news/hurricane.htm
 
The very, very good news is (at least right now - it can change at the next update) there is very little chance that Irma hits Florida at all. The two most reliable models that people use to track these things both have it missing Florida completely. In fact, of all the eight models used to track storms, only one has it hitting Florida (and I guess it's not a very reliable model).

So right now there is zero reason to worry. If you're getting here on the 10th or the 11th maybe a little more rain on those day. But we're looking really good right now.
 


Tonyz said:
The very, very good news is (at least right now - it can change at the next update) there is very little chance that Irma hits Florida at all. The two most reliable models that people use to track these things both have it missing Florida completely. In fact, of all the eight models used to track storms, only one has it hitting Florida (and I guess it's not a very reliable model).

So right now there is zero reason to worry. If you're getting here on the 10th or the 11th maybe a little more rain on those day. But we're looking really good right now.
Click to expand...

What are some reliable models? How do I find them?

Gorechick said:
Here's a repost of my response from a 2015 Hurricane watch thread-
We arrived the day Hurricane Charley hit in 2004. We were on one of the last flights in before they closed MCO. Parks were closed that evening and the next morning. We had stayed at a Best Western DTD the evening of the hurricane as our package at POFQ started the next day. WDW was the best place to be as they have their own power grid. Surrounding areas were in bad shape but WDW was already in cleanup mode and getting parks up and running. Many people were stranded on property and they opened excess rooms for their employees IIRC. Here is a link to an article from Allears.net -http://www.allears.net/news/hurricane.htm
Click to expand...

This really helped ease my mind. Seems like it wouldn't be as aweful as I made it out to be in my mind.
 


Thanks for this thread! We are coming Sept 8-16th so I was wondering about Irma. Sounds like Disney (in our 2 bedroom villa!!!!!) is a decent place to be during a hurricane, but relieved to hear it likely won't be an issue!
 
disneycountrygirl said:
Thanks for this thread! We are coming Sept 8-16th so I was wondering about Irma. Sounds like Disney (in our 2 bedroom villa!!!!!) is a decent place to be during a hurricane, but relieved to hear it likely won't be an issue!
Click to expand...

Again it could change tomorrow but we're looking pretty good right now. (One of the models just updated and again has it missing Florida!)
 
Crossing my fingers for you! Our first trip was during a hurricane. I can't remember the year or the name anymore, but we were one of the last flights that made it !I remember anxiously tracking a storm and it was not a good time! I don't think MCO closed, but I remember SW cancelling a bunch of flights for some reason. Ours was first thing in the morning out of Omaha, and the ticket desk told us we would be the only flight that day! The parks didn't close, but man was it rainy! :)
 
Because there are now two weather threads running, here is info @yulilin3 posted in the original weather/Irma thread:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/watching-the-tropics-again.3630142/

yulilin3 said:
I have been "closely monitoring" (see what I did there :) ) this thread, a couple of things
1. Please let's try and bring back the discussion on the storms that are maybe/probably/headed to Florida, currently. Lets stop discussion on past events that do not have anything to do with WDW or planning a trip to WDW, just to keep things on course
2. For those asking what to expect during any type of storms I think this has been mentioned time and time again. WE DO NOT KNOW. Storms are completely unpredictable and even the best models will have inaccurate results. The track changes all the time, this is why they have track updates every 6 hours.
3. I believe the intent of the OP was and is good, at this point just be aware that there are storms out there that MIGHT impact your trip, this is true for the entire hurricane season visitors (June through November)
4. If you are at WDW when a big storm hits listen to CM for instructions, be it in the parks or at your resort. Safety is the number one priority at WDW and if management feels there is need to close things up they will
So again, please lets try and concentrate the discussion on storms at WDW, thank you
Click to expand...

Also, for specific Transportation needs, please post on the Transportation Board. :)
https://www.disboards.com/forums/transportation.16/
 
In 2008, we had a trip planned for mid-September and I was obsessively watching Hurricane Ike. I was so worried it veer northward and hit Florida. Well, it veered west and hit Texas instead. We live in Central Ohio and flew out on a Sunday morning. It was sunny and beautiful that morning. Later that day, we received a phone call from a friend, telling us that the remnants of Ike had blown through Ohio. There were tons of trees down and significant other damage. There were widespread power outages. Some unfortunate people were without power for a week. Meanwhile, we were enjoying beautiful weather in Orlando. I think it rained once that entire week and it was a quick downpour one afternoon. After that, I decided not to worry so much about hurricanes. I'm keeping an eye on it, but not fretting.
 
An updated model (if anyone cares) shows the most outer rings juuuuust barely scraping Florida at the tip next Sunday, so no effect on Orlando.

From Sunday to Monday it continues to scrap the eastern side. Right now this would be when it affects Orlando the most, but it's in more of the outer rings, so more rain and higher winds in the forecast. Nothing crazy. I've also been told the storm's weaker if it's east of you.

So from now until next Sunday we're in the clear. Sunday night to Monday might get a little messy but nothing horrible. And this is only one model, the other one still has it not hitting Florida at all.

Again things can and almost certainly will change next forecast.
 
Tonyz said:
An updated model (if anyone cares) shows the most outer rings juuuuust barely scraping Florida at the tip next Sunday, so no effect on Orlando.

From Sunday to Monday it continues to scrap the eastern side. Right now this would be when it affects Orlando the most, but it's in more of the outer rings, so more rain and higher winds in the forecast. Nothing crazy. I've also been told the storm's weaker if it's east of you.

So from now until next Sunday we're in the clear. Sunday night to Monday might get a little messy but nothing horrible. And this is only one model, the other one still has it not hitting Florida at all.

Again things can and almost certainly will change next forecast.
Click to expand...

I have to admit, I'm feeling better as the models all appears to be more cohesive today. I'm still a bit nervous as I'm flying into Orlando on Monday the 11th...but even if the outer rings scrape the coast there is still a chance that flights will get in, or just be delayed.
 
TinkerBelle_325 said:
I have to admit, I'm feeling better as the models all appears to be more cohesive today. I'm still a bit nervous as I'm flying into Orlando on Monday the 11th...but even if the outer rings scrape the coast there is still a chance that flights will get in, or just be delayed.
Click to expand...

Yeah absolutely no need to worry right now. Monday is the least accurate day, too.
 
Too early to tell anything (we should know better by Monday) but the more plausible path for Irma, by now, seems that it will pass by the coast of Florida like Matthew did. Hopefully it stay this way (we are coming from 09/10 to 09/18). But i wouldn't be surprised if, either way, the MNSSHP of 09/10 is cancelled. I suggest everyone to follow this twitter account in order to stay updated. And know that the ECMWF model is the most accurate of all. Crossing fingers and hoping the pixie dust will chase this nasty girl away.
 
Oh No, we have tickets for 9/10 to MNSSHP and are so looking forward to it. Will Disney refund us if that happens and let us go another night?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page


GET A DISNEY VACATION QUOTE

Dreams Unlimited Travel is committed to providing you with the very best vacation planning experience possible. Our Vacation Planners are experts and will share their honest advice to help you have a magical vacation.

Let us help you with your next Disney Vacation!


New DISboards Threads

2
Moving luggage from one hotel to another
Replies
3
Views
4
Skippyboo
Skippyboo
Neapolitan Ice Cream
What's your favourite Disney memory?
Replies
6
Views
35
veginaz
V
P
Annual pass expiry - from date of purchase or date of first use?
Replies
1
Views
33
Skippyboo
Skippyboo
B
Trattoria al Forno menu question
Replies
0
Views
46
BeachMouse1
B
LKing
Planning possible April 2025 visit
Replies
3
Views
48
LKing
LKing
figment do the bart123
Wand Holders?
Replies
0
Views
25
figment do the bart123
figment do the bart123
NEWS & UPDATES



Latest posts







facebook twitter
Top