Poll: Your Riviera Resale price

[anomamatt]

You cannot claim only 10% of members do not keep their contract long term, and not include ROFRed and bankruptcy. For ME if the data are skewed in that area, then I simply cannot accept any of the conclusions. Again, YMMV.

That's not what I'm saying and not relevant to this discussion. It is VERY clear from the OCC data how many contracts are resale.

Per the deeds: ~10% of the 2042 resorts are resale.

The reason this matters here is because of concern with how many people will be stuck booking at Riviera alone. It doesn't matter what percent of the original buyers keep their contracts, all that matters is how many are resale and limited to Riviera.

 

[Madame]

That's not what I'm saying and not relevant to this discussion. It is VERY clear from the OCC data how many contracts are resale.

Per the deeds: ~10% of the 2042 resorts are resale.

The reason this matters here is because of concern with how many people will be stuck booking at Riviera alone. It doesn't matter what percent of the original buyers keep their contracts, all that matters is how many are resale and limited to Riviera.

No it doesn’t necessarily, not if you’re a fall frenzy booker and most of those resale bookers (let’s say it is 10% only) are restricted to RIV and bought specifically for tower studios and standard studios. Just on the few threads here, many direct buyers are stating they are buying for tower studios. Why would the pattern be different for the resale purchaser? The difference is they cannot book elsewhere snd will start walking even earlier.

One is not going to care what percent of the resort is resale, only that s/he cannot book. How long before DVC changes the resale booking window because the direct buyers are complaining?

If you don’t see how this could impact RIV booking in general (including the 11 mo window), then I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree. It won’t even have an impact for years, but I always take the long view, and freely admit I could be wrong.

 

[Sandisw]

No it doesn’t necessarily, not if you’re a fall frenzy booker and most of those resale bookers (let’s say it is 10% only) are restricted to RIV and bought specifically for tower studios and standard studios. Just on the few threads here, many direct buyers are stating they are buying for tower studios. Why would the pattern be different for the resale purchaser? The difference is they cannot book elsewhere snd will start walking even earlier.

One is not going to care what percent of the resort is resale, only that s/he cannot book. How long before DVC changes the resale booking window because the direct buyers are complaining?

If you don’t see how this could impact RIV booking in general (including the 11 mo window), then I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree. It won’t even have an impact for years, but I always take the long view, and freely admit I could be wrong.

Now you bring up a point I didn’t see before, That the resale buyer at RIV, will be forced to be an 11 month booker and so the % of buyers may not need to be as high as the other resorts to have an impact,

Anf, forget about fall frenzy...that is crazy all over. But, it could have an impact down the road during times that wouldn’t be as busy. Regardless, as an owner, I think tower and SV rooms are going to be very popular just due to the higher point values there.

 

[DougEMG]

If I was a resale owner at RIV that wanted a tower or standard studio I would start walking months ahead of when I actually wanted the room. If enough resale owner at RIV behave this way, it will. Have a negative impact on direct owners as they will be forced to start walking.

It is interesting to see how the online system made it so easy to book and make modifications that an unintended consequence was that it also made walking extremely easy.

 

[RivShore]

If I was a resale owner at RIV that wanted a tower or standard studio I would start walking months ahead of when I actually wanted the room. If enough resale owner at RIV behave this way, it will. Have a negative impact on direct owners as they will be forced to start walking.

It is interesting to see how the online system made it so easy to book and make modifications that an unintended consequence was that it also made walking extremely easy.

I could certainly see this happening, but again, I think we are making mountains out of molehills. How many owners even know about walking... maybe 10% and how many of them would be dedicated enough to keep up with it for months...maybe half, then you have maybe 1% a year of resales...the number of owners doing this and the impact gets pretty small pretty quickly.

 

[zavandor]

I could certainly see this happening, but again, I think we are making mountains out of molehills. How many owners even know about walking... maybe 10% and how many of them would be dedicated enough to keep up with it for months...maybe half, then you have maybe 1% a year of resales...the number of owners doing this and the impact gets pretty small pretty quickly.

Never underestimate what people can do when they plan a WDW vacation. I remember the craziness that was going on for Cinderalla's breakfast.
Even if not required, people will do crazy things. And how to blame them? If you had a chance of being shut out completely of being able to use your points, would you login once or twice a week for a few months to modify a reservation? I would.

 

[CarolMN]

If walking at Riviera causes a problem as large as some are predicting, DVC will "fix" it. Highly likely that most Members won't like the "solution" DVC implements.

In spite of all the complaining about walking for "Fall Fenzy" here on the DIS, it's really not causing system problems. It's just aggravating those who can't get the lower cost (or concierge) options they prefer.

 

[emchen]

I could certainly see this happening, but again, I think we are making mountains out of molehills. How many owners even know about walking... maybe 10% and how many of them would be dedicated enough to keep up with it for months...maybe half, then you have maybe 1% a year of resales...the number of owners doing this and the impact gets pretty small pretty quickly.

I totally agree with you. As you put it, mountains out of molehills...and this is not a new phenomenon! How many resale VGC or VGF members use those points to sleep around? The answer is virtually none. In practice, they are the predecessor to the DRR resale buyer...only use at the home resort at 11-7mo window. The resort is also a fraction the size of DRR and subject to the entire L14 wishing to trade it. Owners at DVC have written that they feel zero anxiety booking in the 11mo window.
YMMV

 

[Madame]

I totally agree with you. As you put it, mountains out of molehills...and this is not a new phenomenon! How many resale VGC or VGF members use those points to sleep around? The answer is virtually none. In practice, they are the predecessor to the DRR resale buyer...only use at the home resort at 11-7mo window. The resort is also a fraction the size of DRR and subject to the entire L14 wishing to trade it. Owners at DVC have written that they feel zero anxiety booking in the 11mo window.
YMMV

Why get passive aggressive? What does it add to the discussion? SMH.

 

[DougEMG]

I could certainly see this happening, but again, I think we are making mountains out of molehills. How many owners even know about walking... maybe 10% and how many of them would be dedicated enough to keep up with it for months...maybe half, then you have maybe 1% a year of resales...the number of owners doing this and the impact gets pretty small pretty quickly.

Walking already happens at All the resorts were there are high demand rooms and not many of them, so I don't see why RIV would be any different. The resale restrictions will just add to that effect.

 

[DougEMG]

If walking at Riviera causes a problem as large as some are predicting, DVC will "fix" it. Highly likely that most Members won't like the "solution" DVC implements.

In spite of all the complaining about walking for "Fall Fenzy" here on the DIS, it's really not causing system problems. It's just aggravating those who can't get the lower cost (or concierge) options they prefer.

Walking isn't a Disney problem. Agree with you that Disney could use it as a justification for some new policy that none of us will like.

 

[DougEMG]

I totally agree with you. As you put it, mountains out of molehills...and this is not a new phenomenon! How many resale VGC or VGF members use those points to sleep around? The answer is virtually none. In practice, they are the predecessor to the DRR resale buyer...only use at the home resort at 11-7mo window. The resort is also a fraction the size of DRR and subject to the entire L14 wishing to trade it. Owners at DVC have written that they feel zero anxiety booking in the 11mo window.
YMMV

I have stayed at VGF multiple times booking at 7 months, so VGF owners are not booking to stay only at their own resort, otherwise how would I get in.

 

[kboo]

How many resale VGC or VGF members use those points to sleep around? The answer is virtually none. In practice, they are the predecessor to the DRR resale buyer...only use at the home resort at 11-7mo window. The resort is also a fraction the size of DRR and subject to the entire L14 wishing to trade it

Having booked standard studios, 1br and 2br at VGF (including over Xmas), as well as standard 1 and 2 br at BLT, and I think I’ve walked 1 of them at 11 months, and it turns out probably didn’t need to walk at all. I do think walking is a bit of a scapegoat - the reality of it is that most of those room categories are hard to book at 11 mo unless you’re online right at 8am. And rooms being gone at 11 mo are going to look a lot like walking if you aren’t watching how availability changes over the day(s) before and after the 11mo window. Also - all it takes is 1 walker to make it visible - just like how the dvc availability tool shows green whether there’s only 1 unit available or 20.

(Of course, I also got lucky and booked VGC at 7mo without walking - was only looking for 1 night so I couldn’t have walked even if I’d wanted to. So maybe I just have good luck!)

Walking already happens at All the resorts were there are high demand rooms and not many of them, so I don't see why RIV would be any different. The resale restrictions will just add to that effect.

I generally agree with your statement except I don’t think walking will be any worse than it is for, say, CCV studios over the holidays or VGF standard studios. I think that’s why there’s a waitlist, and stalking. Also. I wonder how many owners not on the Dis even know about walking?? I *do* agree that RIV owners will on the whole be more savvy about how it works and what they want to do with it. I could see more resale reservations made (attempted) in the early part of their UY so there’s a chance to reschedule or bank if the reservation doesn’t work out.

 

[RivShore]

...Also. I wonder how many owners not on the Dis even know about walking?? I *do* agree that RIV owners will on the whole be more savvy about how it works and what they want to do with it. I could see more resale reservations made (attempted) in the early part of their UY so there’s a chance to reschedule or bank if the reservation doesn’t work out.

That was the point I was trying to make, Disboard members are a very different bread who are diligent in researching everything...the average owner (who bought on a whim in the middle of their vacation)...not so much.

 

[zavandor]

That was the point I was trying to make, Disboard members are a very different bread who are diligent in researching everything...the average owner (who bought on a whim in the middle of their vacation)...not so much.

But a Riviera resale owner is by definition a more knowledgeable person. They have investigate the resale option vs direct, they've browsed different broker websites, they've made an offer and closed on a contract that explicitly tells them the restrictions exist. The chances they know what walking is are higher than for the average owner.

 

[Brianstl]

But a Riviera resale owner is by definition a more knowledgeable person. They have investigate the resale option vs direct, they've browsed different broker websites, they've made an offer and closed on a contract that explicitly tells them the restrictions exist. The chances they know what walking is are higher than for the average owner.

Plus, after a couple of times of not being able to book the vacation that you want frustration will set in. When that happens, people will turn to sites like DIS just to vent. That will lead them to knowing what walking is and they will start doing it.

 

[RivShore]

But a Riviera resale owner is by definition a more knowledgeable person. They have investigate the resale option vs direct, they've browsed different broker websites, they've made an offer and closed on a contract that explicitly tells them the restrictions exist. The chances they know what walking is are higher than for the average owner.

Plus, after a couple of times of not being able to book the vacation that you want frustration will set in. When that happens, people will turn to sites like DIS just to vent. That will lead them to knowing what walking is and they will start doing it.

Those are good thoughts, we will be dealing with different and more educated resale buyers with Riviera. And there's different ways it could go - maybe if they know studios are difficult to get, rather than going the walking route for studios, they'll just buy more points to make sure they have enough for 1 BR's. Time will tell...

 

[Soap_1984]

Just saw another Riv contract for sale on https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/ 50 points for $121 per point.

 

[Sandisw]

Just saw another Riv contract for sale on https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/ 50 points for $121 per point.

Looks like it is already sold, It also looks like this contract is being used as the 19 and 20 points were used.

 

[Drewferin]

Just saw another Riv contract for sale on https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/ 50 points for $121 per point.

It already has an offer and accepted. It was missing the points for 2019 and 2020 so $121 makes you scratch your head...