Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

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But only 35% of any given week can be sold as a fixed week, so even that is unlikely. Possible, but unlikely.

What the fixed weeks do is make a room category essentially smaller than it appears. And thus more difficult because there are rooms that are never in the room inventory unless the owner cancels that fiixsd week. And they just have to follow normal cancellation policies so it could stay locked up until 31days prior to check in and the owner gets their full 110% of points with no penalties assuming they also bought the correct UY the works well with that week.
 
What the fixed weeks do is make a room category essentially smaller than it appears. And thus more difficult because there are rooms that are never in the room inventory unless the owner cancels that fiixsd week. And they just have to follow normal cancellation policies so it could stay locked up until 31days prior to check in and the owner gets their full 110% of points with no penalties assuming they also bought the correct UY the works well with that week.

However, the total number of fixed week sales is quite small. I think the most I've ever seen listed for a single particular week (at VGF) is something like 3 or 4. And also I've seen that the only fixed weeks sold are in November and December - though that may have changed. Overall, I think the effect of fixed weeks is not really noticable, except maybe at VGF in studios in December.
 
However, the total number of fixed week sales is quite small. I think the most I've ever seen listed for a single particular week (at VGF) is something like 3 or 4. And also I've seen that the only fixed weeks sold are in November and December - though that may have changed. Overall, I think the effect of fixed weeks is not really noticable, except maybe at VGF in studios in December.

I've seen contracts for VGF that had fixed weeks in the summer. You want to talk about massive contracts? It was a fixed week in August for a Grand Villa at VGF. And the person bought two consecutive weeks. Something like 1364 points per contract!

At $135 a point, those two weeks cost around $371,000 plus another $16,000 in maintenance fees!

The owner was a member of one of the royal families in the middle east, so I guess money is unlikely a problem.
 


I've seen contracts for VGF that had fixed weeks in the summer. You want to talk about massive contracts? It was a fixed week in August for a Grand Villa at VGF. And the person bought two consecutive weeks. Something like 1364 points per contract!

At $135 a point, those two weeks cost around $371,000 plus another $16,000 in maintenance fees!

The owner was a member of one of the royal families in the middle east, so I guess money is unlikely a problem.

WOW! But on the other hand - their alternative would be to buy a $5 million home at Golden Oak. The $371,000 could mostly be made back if they later sell the points, so it might make a lot of sense for a wealthy family.
 


@skier_pete - As everyone has said - thanks for the research. My daughter and I (pic is granddaughter) are in the process of DVC purchase, but the question of home resort seems to be a critical one and the is the most useful information I have found so far to let us ponder the best strategy - in advance, rather than next year saying "I wish we had..." -- Have you gathered these charts into a single pdf? This thread now occupies 15 pages and I really get a lot out of comparing one resort to another, or one room type versus another. Although the data will gradually go out of date, it will be useful for a long time past being "current". Availability is only one variable in this decision - specific resort features versus point price versus new/resale versus fringe benefits like park ticket discounts. A lot to put together. thanks for your help. Howard
 
It's already out of date, really. I think the chart understates Fall Frenzy.

(PS: Not a criticism, Pete. Fall has grown frenzied-er even in 2 years.)
 
It's already out of date, really. I think the chart understates Fall Frenzy.

(PS: Not a criticism, Pete. Fall has grown frenzied-er even in 2 years.)

Yes, there's no doubt the further away from the dates it was done, the less accurate it will become. I do agree it's probably gotten slightly worse in the fall, but if you look at the patterns it was already pretty bad - it's pretty much "Home resort or SSR" from Oct 1st to Dec 15th.
 
Yes, there's no doubt the further away from the dates it was done, the less accurate it will become. I do agree it's probably gotten slightly worse in the fall, but if you look at the patterns it was already pretty bad - it's pretty much "Home resort or SSR" from Oct 1st to Dec 15th.
Not always even SSR any more.
 
Spotty is an understatement for sure. I was about 5 months out when I got my points loaded ready to book. Wednesday was the night I had most trouble securing, interestingly.

That's something that hasn't changed. We got our original points loaded in May of 2014 and wanted to stay anywhere in a studio in October - the only thing we could get was SSR in a 1-bedroom. 5 months out for Oct-early Jan has been a challenge for a long time.
 
At this point, a 7-month booking attempt in October is as likely to be a 1BR as anything. Even Saratoga Studios have been spotty some weeks.
 
That's something that hasn't changed. We got our original points loaded in May of 2014 and wanted to stay anywhere in a studio in October - the only thing we could get was SSR in a 1-bedroom. 5 months out for Oct-early Jan has been a challenge for a long time.

Oh I totally did better than I expected. I just thought it was weird that Wednesday was the tough one, I figured it would be thursday or sunday with the long weekend stays.
 
Believe it or not, I've started doing an update of these sheets - expanding to include all one-bedroom units. I think I may have bitten off more than I can chew. I have to tell you I am not being quite as meticulous as the first time, just going on every 2 weeks rather than the original pass I was looking it over at least 2 times for every 1/2 month period.

Honestly so far I am not finding a LOT difference from 3 years ago, though I will say that the biggest differences are (a) room categories disappearing faster at 7 months and (b) September appears to be much more popular than 3 years ago - which you can probably thank Food and Wine for that.

Also, so far as expected - SSR Preferred is slightly easier to get that Standard, but both are still pretty easy to get. If you want a last minute reservation, 1-bedroom preferred rooms seem almost always available.

And the Poly seems generally pretty available right up to 7 months, but gets snatched up VERY quickly at 7 months. New Tables coming in only 11 months! (I'm also including studios at Aulani for somewhat selfish reasons.)
 
Believe it or not, I've started doing an update of these sheets - expanding to include all one-bedroom units. I think I may have bitten off more than I can chew. I have to tell you I am not being quite as meticulous as the first time, just going on every 2 weeks rather than the original pass I was looking it over at least 2 times for every 1/2 month period.

Honestly so far I am not finding a LOT difference from 3 years ago, though I will say that the biggest differences are (a) room categories disappearing faster at 7 months and (b) September appears to be much more popular than 3 years ago - which you can probably thank Food and Wine for that.

Also, so far as expected - SSR Preferred is slightly easier to get that Standard, but both are still pretty easy to get. If you want a last minute reservation, 1-bedroom preferred rooms seem almost always available.

And the Poly seems generally pretty available right up to 7 months, but gets snatched up VERY quickly at 7 months. New Tables coming in only 11 months! (I'm also including studios at Aulani for somewhat selfish reasons.)

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sorry -- I can't help myself when there's a possibility of using a Caddyshack meme.

leonardo-dicaprio-toast-youre-awesome-keep-up-the-good-work.jpg
 
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