Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

I agree with this. We really don't know their mindset on this. Maybe the high point cost has them happy with 100,000 points per month. It's really just wait and see. I seriously doubt that they want this resort to take 5 years to sell out. The fact that there offering 40% off room rates also says they aren't exactly.sold out at the resort either.

one thing that 40% discount does is get butts in the beds...and then butts at the preview center.

it’s a heck of a lot easier to sell someone riviera points if they’re currently staying (and presumably having a good time) at the resort.
 
The fact that there offering 40% off room rates also says they aren't exactly.sold out at the resort either.

I think we all know the rack rates for DVC resorts are inflated to absurdly high levels to facilitate the reliable DVC marketing pitch of "saving 50%". They are literally charging $600 a night for a tower studio on a random day in March. NO ONE would actually pay that, but it makes the "savings" of buying points to stay there appear far higher.
 
In a not at all surprising move - the sales in December spiked to nearly 122,000 points. This should comes as no surprise as this is when the resort finally opened. It also showed better sales than CCV a year ago, at 116,000. However, it is their best sales month for Riviera since it opened, which has to be at least somewhat encouraging considering December is normally a slow month.

I wouldn't be surprised if next month sales go higher again. CCV sales last January were 219,000 points in December and in January 2018 Poly and CCV combined for 208,000 in sales. January 2017 saw 169,000 in overall sales.

January may be our first real test of Riviera - with the resort being barely open a month, and sales the last two Januaries of 200,000+ points. With the economy continuing to be strong - if Riviera goes below say 175,000 points for January that will likely be a disappointment, and below 150,000 points there will likely be real concern on Disney's part.

A couple of other notes - overall sales in 2019 hit 2.25 million which is the highest since 2011, which is good news for Disney - yet new resort sales were down significantly. (65% of overall sales instead of 80% where it has been historically)
This says DVC has more demand for sold out resorts at high prices than they do for the new resort.

Stay tuned, it's starting to get juicy.
 
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In a not at all surprising move - the sales in December spiked to nearly 122,000 points. This should comes as no surprise as this is when the resort finally opened. It also showed better sales than CCV a year ago, at 116,000. However, it is their best sales month for Riviera since it opened, which has to be at least somewhat encouraging considering December is normally a slow month.

I wouldn't be surprised if next month sales go higher again. CCV sales last January were 219,000 points in December and in January 2018 Poly and CCV combined for 208,000 in sales. January 2017 saw 169,000 in overall sales.

January may be our first real test of Riviera - with the resort being barely open a month, and sales the last two Januaries of 200,000+ points. With the economy continuing to be strong - if Riviera goes below say 175,000 points for January that will likely be a disappointment, and below 150,000 points there will likely be real concern on Disney's part.

Stay tuned, it's starting to get juicy.
I do want to point out those "December" sales are really contracts sold in November and "January" sales are really those sold in December, since DVC closes about 30 days after contract signing (and that is what DVCNews.com uses for these figures). So that does line up with my expectation most would actually buy in the month of December (bonuses, more people on vacation, etc) vs. January. So you might not reach the 200k since the "January" sales figures will be contracts bought in December with the resort still only open for half the month.

Though on the flip side those great "December" sales were when the resort wasn't even open yet. So "January" sales might be very strong but under 200k and DVC still would be happy (for reasons above).
 


I do want to point out those "December" sales are really contracts sold in November and "January" sales are really those sold in December, since DVC closes about 30 days after contract signing (and that is what DVCNews.com uses for these figures). So that does line up with my expectation most would actually buy in the month of December (bonuses, more people on vacation, etc) vs. January. So you might not reach the 200k since the "January" sales figures will be contracts bought in December with the resort still only open for half the month.

Though on the flip side those great "December" sales were when the resort wasn't even open yet. So "January" sales might be very strong but under 200k and DVC still would be happy (for reasons above).

And I agree -as I said, I think they anything above 175,000 would be fine with them.
 
And I agree -as I said, I think they anything above 175,000 would be fine with them.
Yeah my main point was to really highlight the sales figures released by DVCNews.com are really on a 1 month delay, so mostly November sales (I wish they would relabel their sales figures to account for that). So we have yet to realize any bump from the resort opening up, contrary to the suggestions in this thread. My other minor point was in agreement (though for different reasons) they could be happy being below 200k in January (really December sales) and not matching other resorts cause circumstances were different from the other resorts; how much below 200k is a different story.

No one can really extrapolate the effect of the resort opening or events surrounding it should yet as DVCNews.com didn't have that data yet in their analysis. In fact contracts sold post opening would be just getting around to being recorded now.
 


I do want to point out those "December" sales are really contracts sold in November and "January" sales are really those sold in December, since DVC closes about 30 days after contract signing (and that is what DVCNews.com uses for these figures). So that does line up with my expectation most would actually buy in the month of December (bonuses, more people on vacation, etc) vs. January. So you might not reach the 200k since the "January" sales figures will be contracts bought in December with the resort still only open for half the month.

Though on the flip side those great "December" sales were when the resort wasn't even open yet. So "January" sales might be very strong but under 200k and DVC still would be happy (for reasons above).

Thanks Crvetter, I had asked that question in another thread. So this confirms that post-opening sales are not yet included and just half a month of them will be reported in Jan. sales.

Jan. & Feb. results will tell a lot more of the story.
 
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Thanks Crvetter, I had asked that question in another thread. So this confirms that post-opening sales are not yet included and just half a month of them will be reported in Jan. sales.

Jan. & Feb. results will tell a lot more of the story.

It's not exactly 30 days, but that's a good approximation. I would expect January number would not cover a full month of the resort being open, but it WILL cover the resort opening, and as I said, usually a strong month anyways (people buying direct contracts for there Christmas presents). Would be very shocked if we don't see a pretty good spike in January - but one month is never going to tell the story by itself.
 
Keep in mind that during the opening we saw (1) Fold down beds from wall be taken out of service and (2) fold down beds from the dresser taken out of service.

These would have negatively influenced most guesses and left a bad taste in their mouth to some extent. I personally wouldnt have been happy at all having been woken up on Chrsitmas Eve and having beds taken out of service as my children slept on them...
 
Keep in mind that during the opening we saw (1) Fold down beds from wall be taken out of service and (2) fold down beds from the dresser taken out of service.

These would have negatively influenced most guesses and left a bad taste in their mouth to some extent. I personally wouldnt have been happy at all having been woken up on Chrsitmas Eve and having beds taken out of service as my children slept on them...

Maybe if he was dressed as Santa when he took it:

""Why, my sweet little tot," the fake Santy Claus lied,
"There's a bolt on this bed that won't hold on one side.
So I'm taking this bed to my workshop my dear.
I'll fix it up there, and then I'll bring it back here."

And his fib fooled the child. Then he patted her head,
And he got her a drink, and he sent her to a....mat on the floor.
 
Here is a new analysis from @skier_pete that shows that Rivera sale is soft compared to previous years.

https://dvcfan.com/2020/01/21/riviera-sales-and-the-effect-on-resale-restrictions/
Here is a copy/paste from the conclusion.

This data is really something – Saratoga sales have SPIKED in the last 4 months, each month being in excess of 10,000 points. These are the only 4 months out of the last 36 that show sales over 10,000 for the month.

So, what is the story this data is telling us. The factual conclusions we can make is (a) 2017-2019 total sales were fairly consistent, (b) Riviera sales since launch have been about 20% lower than Poly and CCV sales were in years just prior, and (c) lower Riviera sales have coincided with higher direct sales at the other WDW resorts during the same time period.

At this point, we have to move from the Kingdom of “fact-land” through the “realm of speculation”. In my view – this shows pretty strongly new members have been buying other resorts in preference of Riviera, even though Disney has over the last two years significantly RAISED the direct prices on those resorts. I can only see three potential reasons for this.

(1) Riviera sales are low because the resort was not yet open, and people would rather buy a “known” property.

(2) There is something about the Riviera resort that people don’t like, whether the point charts, the location, the theme, or the Skyliner, that is hurting sales.

(3) Riviera sales are being hurt by the resale restrictions.

So the good news for Disney is that the first reason is going away – the resort is now open and people can see the resort for themselves. Starting with next month’s sales, this potential cause is eliminated. This will leave the other two reasons going forward. The next six months of data will tell us if reason #1 was the real problem.

However, if the data trend stays the same, Disney will have a decision to make. Do they live with the weaker new resort sales or do they consider retracting the resale restrictions. You might say that Disney could consider there not to even be a problem. Sales remain strong, even if Riviera sales are soft. But Disney MUCH prefers new resort sales to old resort sales, and current pacing says Riviera could take 5 years or more to sell out, which is pretty clearly not what Disney was hoping with Reflections set to open in 2022.

So what do you think? If the data continues to track as is, does Disney make a policy change? Or do they just “ride it out”? When it comes to knowing what Disney will do, your guess is as good as mine
.
 
Here is a new analysis from @skier_pete that shows that Rivera sale is soft compared to previous years.

https://dvcfan.com/2020/01/21/riviera-sales-and-the-effect-on-resale-restrictions/
Here is a copy/paste from the conclusion.

This data is really something – Saratoga sales have SPIKED in the last 4 months, each month being in excess of 10,000 points. These are the only 4 months out of the last 36 that show sales over 10,000 for the month.

So, what is the story this data is telling us. The factual conclusions we can make is (a) 2017-2019 total sales were fairly consistent, (b) Riviera sales since launch have been about 20% lower than Poly and CCV sales were in years just prior, and (c) lower Riviera sales have coincided with higher direct sales at the other WDW resorts during the same time period.

At this point, we have to move from the Kingdom of “fact-land” through the “realm of speculation”. In my view – this shows pretty strongly new members have been buying other resorts in preference of Riviera, even though Disney has over the last two years significantly RAISED the direct prices on those resorts. I can only see three potential reasons for this.

(1) Riviera sales are low because the resort was not yet open, and people would rather buy a “known” property.

(2) There is something about the Riviera resort that people don’t like, whether the point charts, the location, the theme, or the Skyliner, that is hurting sales.

(3) Riviera sales are being hurt by the resale restrictions.

So the good news for Disney is that the first reason is going away – the resort is now open and people can see the resort for themselves. Starting with next month’s sales, this potential cause is eliminated. This will leave the other two reasons going forward. The next six months of data will tell us if reason #1 was the real problem.

However, if the data trend stays the same, Disney will have a decision to make. Do they live with the weaker new resort sales or do they consider retracting the resale restrictions. You might say that Disney could consider there not to even be a problem. Sales remain strong, even if Riviera sales are soft. But Disney MUCH prefers new resort sales to old resort sales, and current pacing says Riviera could take 5 years or more to sell out, which is pretty clearly not what Disney was hoping with Reflections set to open in 2022.

So what do you think? If the data continues to track as is, does Disney make a policy change? Or do they just “ride it out”? When it comes to knowing what Disney will do, your guess is as good as mine
.

Oh Disney totally rides this out. Sales aren't that bad that they need to make a change, even if old resorts are selling more. Aulani is perfect evidence of this, and before Aulani there was another resort that was available direct for awhile (I forget which one). Also, Poly is going to be the exception not the rule.

It would be interesting to see how much the 2019 resale restrictions has effected direct sales of these resorts. I know personally being locked into the original 14 resorts isn't as appealing as the pre-restriction resale market.
 
I think DVC is in for the long run. Until 2042 the L14 resorts are still very attractive resale. Buy SSR now and you can book BCV and BWV exactly like a RIV direct owner can. You cannot book RIV buy it's one resort only out of 15.
Things will slowly change and in 2042 5 resorts will not be available to resale purchasers of the L14. Over time the new reality will be that resale will only be able to book one resort and direct 20 or more resorts. The two products will be so different that the resale restrictions will become a HUGE selling point for direct.
The point is: is DVC going to tolerate slightly lower sales now in order to boot sales 20 years from now?
 
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remember too, that correlation does not equal causation.
Last fall also saw the minimum point buy in for direct perks go from 75 to 100 points. Each time that is announced, there is a rush to buy direct. All it takes to sell 10,000 SSR points direct is 100 - 100 point purchases, or 134 - 75 point purchasers trying to get in before the deadline. If people were contemplating dipping their toes in the DVC pool, one would expect to see some spikes in OKW, SSR and AKV purchases at around the same time, as those are the most cost-effective to buy direct.
 
remember too, that correlation does not equal causation.
Last fall also saw the minimum point buy in for direct perks go from 75 to 100 points. Each time that is announced, there is a rush to buy direct. All it takes to sell 10,000 SSR points direct is 100 - 100 point purchases, or 134 - 75 point purchasers trying to get in before the deadline. If people were contemplating dipping their toes in the DVC pool, one would expect to see some spikes in OKW, SSR and AKV purchases at around the same time, as those are the most cost-effective to buy direct.

IMO I'd believe that those thinking of dipping their toes in and wanting the minimum would typically or historically have gone for the newest resort. With dipping your toes in now costing $15k we've tended to see most justify the higher price to get the newest if it's coming without a downside. So even if it were those looking to get in that have bought SSR instead of Riviera that could point to something about Riviera that is making buyers hold back.
 
A couple additional variables mentioned here, and in the comments on Pete's great article, caught my attention:

How have the L14 resale restrictions impacted direct sales of the old resorts? Have some buyers moved from the resale market to direct in order to avoid the L14 booking restrictions.

Have the many recent room remodels, at some of the L14's, juiced up their sales numbers?

Probably hard to impossible to quantify them but they could be having some impact.
 
Unfortunately many of today’s execs are in it for the short haul. If the metrics that drive their variable comp lead them down a path where rescinding the resale restrictions looks like a good solve then I would expect them to make that change.
 
Keep in mind that selling add ons for 25 points is not the same as having to sell a ton of points for riviera; Riviera is behind the 8 ball being a new resort. I know the numbers are the numbers, but it's simple supply and demand; there aren't that many points to be had at the L14 and it proves, to me, two points (the first of which had almost nothing to do with riviera):
1) almost as many people want out of those resorts as want in (and as many will want out of Riviera);
2) people generally don't care about the contract length, or actually prefer shorter contract length since they know the chances of using it after 30 years provides little/no value outside of resale.
I'm not sure what other explanation there is for increased direct sales of resorts expiring before riviera, at a higher price.

Of course data can be interpreted several ways. Correlation is not causation, but it also isn't de facto not causation either. I am still in the camp of believing disney is starting to push things too far as it relates to price vs value. If I look at numbers and there was no resale, I personally could not justify buying. That isn't good for dvc; many others feel that way. An exit strategy is a big issue and I can see a scenario where, if they continue, instead of hearing awesome stories about how great dvc is (especially compared to other timeshares) you will hear stories of people with less "equity" in their membership than its worth and being unable to sell for anywhere near what they bought. You can vacation to Disney without dvc and in reality the benefits are so limited now that you need to spend $40k just to get enough points to justify a gold AP.

To me it's not a great move on disneys part; I can last another 22 years and decide what to do then, so maybe disney doesn't care about how I and many others feel.

They are moving out of "this is going to save you money if you're coming every year or so in the next twenty years" to a purely emotional decision, which is not what dvc was even ten years ago.
 
Attempting to predict the future by peering through the lens of today is pretty much guaranteed to produce myopic results at best. For those who have been around the DIS for a while, we will remember how some folks predicted the death of DVC when direct points hit the $100/PP mark, but today members are quite happy to pick up resale (not direct) contracts for $100/PP. When I purchased my first contract (some 20 years ago), the rack rate at the Polynesian was about $300/night. That seemed expensive at the time, but would be a bargain today.

In 10-20 years, I'm sure we will be reading posts here from someone who has just purchased a resale contract for $200/PP and feels like it was quite a deal and made great "financial sense". If I've learned one thing about us Disney fans over the years, it's that we will complain about everything under the sun, but at the end of the day, we'll still pay higher ticket, food, and room prices year after year.
 

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