Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[kboo]

To some extent, it will always be comparing apples to oranges, for the reasons above and also because - Disney is pouring a lot of improvements into EP and HS in the next few years. So any new potential DVC buyers are going to see shiny Riviera as the most affordable DVC resort with easy access to those parks.

 

[RivShore]

Some updated data here:

https://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/d...27-direct-sales-unspectacular-in-october-2019
Including this relevant (to this thread) paragraph:

In the seven months since sales began, Riviera is averaging about 96,320 points a month. By comparison, Copper Creek Villas & Cabins at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge averaged 110,108 points a month from the start of sales in April 2017 through June 2019 when it was officially considered to be “sold out.” However, Riviera is actually outperforming Copper Creek if viewed by their comparable ages. Copper Creek sold only 374,089 points during its first seven months, over 300,000 points less than what the Riviera has sold in its first seven months.

 

[zavandor]

Some updated data here:

https://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/d...27-direct-sales-unspectacular-in-october-2019
Including this relevant (to this thread) paragraph:

In the seven months since sales began, Riviera is averaging about 96,320 points a month. By comparison, Copper Creek Villas & Cabins at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge averaged 110,108 points a month from the start of sales in April 2017 through June 2019 when it was officially considered to be “sold out.” However, Riviera is actually outperforming Copper Creek if viewed by their comparable ages. Copper Creek sold only 374,089 points during its first seven months, over 300,000 points less than what the Riviera has sold in its first seven months.

It's very difficult to compare CCV and Riviera performances in the first months. When CCV went on sale, Poly was not sold out and still the focus of marketing. I remember people posting about what a failure CCV was. And then when Poly sold out CCV became one of the best selling resorts ever.
Riviera has the handicap of not being open yet and being a standalone resort, so a very unknown entity for everyone. On the other hand it's the sales focus right now. Too many variables to draw a conclusion yet.

 

[The Jackal]

It's very difficult to compare CCV and Riviera performances in the first months. When CCV went on sale, Poly was not sold out and still the focus of marketing. I remember people posting about what a failure CCV was. And then when Poly sold out CCV became one of the best selling resorts ever.
Riviera has the handicap of not being open yet and being a standalone resort, so a very unknown entity for everyone. On the other hand it's the sales focus right now. Too many variables to draw a conclusion yet.

It can’t do any worse than Aulani. Will it sell out, of course it will, it’s at WDW. It will probably just take a little longer than projected.

 

[SecondEventuality]

Some updated data here:

https://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/d...27-direct-sales-unspectacular-in-october-2019
Including this relevant (to this thread) paragraph:

In the seven months since sales began, Riviera is averaging about 96,320 points a month. By comparison, Copper Creek Villas & Cabins at Disney’s Wilderness Lodge averaged 110,108 points a month from the start of sales in April 2017 through June 2019 when it was officially considered to be “sold out.” However, Riviera is actually outperforming Copper Creek if viewed by their comparable ages. Copper Creek sold only 374,089 points during its first seven months, over 300,000 points less than what the Riviera has sold in its first seven months.

I think all this article did was make me like Riviera even more!! It's as if the more that Riv is bashed, the more I love it. Must be the "underdog" in me, call it what you will.

 

[skier_pete]

Going back to my post on Page 33 comparing new resort sales versus overall:

October 2017: 183,200 total pts, 158,900 pts new resorts (87% from new resorts)
October 2018: 168,400 total pts, 137,600 pts new resorts (82% from new resorts)
October 2019: 148,900 total pts. 97,100 pts new resorts. (65% from new resorts)

Again, forgetting the drop in sales year-over-year - the % from new resorts is still considerably down. 65% version 80-85%.

Unless Disney is changing their strategy - and I doubt they are - they HAVE to be worried about these numbers. Rebuying an SSR contract at $100 and reselling it at $165 a point is NOT the business they want to be in. You may think - Oh they are making $65 a point doing nothing, why wouldn't this be great.

because a resort like Riviera probably costs around $300 million to build and will sell for around $1.2 BILLION. Or look at it this way - Riviera costs them$40-50 a point to build - and $188 a point to sell, meaning they are making a $138-148/pt profit on Riviera, and they are making $65 a point profit on selling an SSR point. Substituting old resort sales for new resort sales shows a negative impact on profits.

It comes back to what I said on Page #33, if the reason for slow sales in NOT the fact it is not yet open, then it's either due to the resort itself or the restrictions. If this sales trend continue I think Disney will be seriously considering rolling back the restrictions.

Again this is NOT a knock on those that bought at Riviera - however I have to say if you are an individual that will NOT buy at Riviera because of the resale restriction - please let them know. The harder they get this message the better for all of us - including Riviera owners that already bought.

 

[Brianstl]

Going back to my post on Page 33 comparing new resort sales versus overall:

October 2017: 183,200 total pts, 158,900 pts new resorts (87% from new resorts)
October 2018: 168,400 total pts, 137,600 pts new resorts (82% from new resorts)
October 2019: 148,900 total pts. 97,100 pts new resorts. (65% from new resorts)

Again, forgetting the drop in sales year-over-year - the % from new resorts is still considerably down. 65% version 80-85%.

Unless Disney is changing their strategy - and I doubt they are - they HAVE to be worried about these numbers. Rebuying an SSR contract at $100 and reselling it at $165 a point is NOT the business they want to be in. You may think - Oh they are making $65 a point doing nothing, why wouldn't this be great.

because a resort like Riviera probably costs around $300 million to build and will sell for around $1.2 BILLION. Or look at it this way - Riviera costs them$40-50 a point to build - and $188 a point to sell, meaning they are making a $138-148/pt profit on Riviera, and they are making $65 a point profit on selling an SSR point. Substituting old resort sales for new resort sales shows a negative impact on profits.

It comes back to what I said on Page #33, if the reason for slow sales in NOT the fact it is not yet open, then it's either due to the resort itself or the restrictions. If this sales trend continue I think Disney will be seriously considering rolling back the restrictions.

Again this is NOT a knock on those that bought at Riviera - however I have to say if you are an individual that will NOT buy at Riviera because of the resale restriction - please let them know. The harder they get this message the better for all of us - including Riviera owners that already bought.

I think more than just RIV is at play here. The pool of buyers in the resale market appears to be drying up, too. Not sure if it is an overall economic indicator or if it is that they have reached saturation point when it comes to finding buyers at both the current direct prices and the current resale prices.

 

[Soap_1984]

I think more than just RIV is at play here. The pool of buyers in the resale market appears to be drying up, too. Not sure if it is an overall economic indicator or if it is that they have reached saturation point when it comes to finding buyers at both the current direct prices and the current resale prices.

I think you can both be right to some extent, still Disney must be concerned. Petes's numbers do show that direct non-riviera sales are historically pretty decent in the past few months compared to previous three years in absolute terms.

 

[RivShore]

I've been contemplating whether changes in the economy have impacted sales too. The trouble is there's lots of conflicting data that don't lead to black and white answers. Per DVC News, on a calendar year basis, sales are up 5% while Pete's data shows a slowdown, at least for Oct vs Oct. Might be a few things in play - the parks were very slow when we were there in early Sep. so maybe the trickle down from that is less potential buyers (Disney also noted slowing visits towards the end of their fiscal year). Also the news was filled with the "recession" word over the summer, when the yield curve briefly inverted, and that could have put the brakes on major purchases like this for many people. Of course now that the curve has gotten healthy again and recession fears have subsided, its off the front pages. Now, I guess we just wait to see if the buyers come back, especially once Riviera actually opens.

 

[skier_pete]

I think more than just RIV is at play here. The pool of buyers in the resale market appears to be drying up, too. Not sure if it is an overall economic indicator or if it is that they have reached saturation point when it comes to finding buyers at both the current direct prices and the current resale prices.

I think you can both be right to some extent, still Disney must be concerned. Petes's numbers do show that direct non-riviera sales are historically pretty decent in the past few months compared to previous three years in absolute terms.

Yes - the point being not so much that Riviera sales are really soft - but more that of the pool of direct buyers - why are such a high percentage (35-40%) choosing to buy old resorts versus previous years (15-20%). I only went back 2 years, but I could've gone back 5 years and the 15-20% number would have stayed the same. Why NOW are 35% of Direct buyers not buying the resort Disney is selling? It's not because Disney is marketing the old resorts more.

Of course I can't be sure - but if I was Disney I would be VERY concerned with why this is occurring. Not that Riviera sales are maybe down slightly versus year over year, but why buyers are choosing to buy elsewhere in much greater numbers than at Riviera.

 

[ELMC]

Yes - the point being not so much that Riviera sales are really soft - but more that of the pool of direct buyers - why are such a high percentage (35-40%) choosing to buy old resorts versus previous years (15-20%). I only went back 2 years, but I could've gone back 5 years and the 15-20% number would have stayed the same. Why NOW are 35% of Direct buyers not buying the resort Disney is selling? It's not because Disney is marketing the old resorts more.

Of course I can't be sure - but if I was Disney I would be VERY concerned with why this is occurring. Not that Riviera sales are maybe down slightly versus year over year, but why buyers are choosing to buy elsewhere in much greater numbers than at Riviera.

It could be something as simple as people choosing the known vs. the unknown. When you think about it, every new DVC resort that has been marketed for as far back as I can remember has been attached to or associated with an already existing resort. When Riviera opens up, it will shift from unknown to known, and then we will see if people are choosing it or the older resorts.

That said, Disney is very good at directing its customers where it wants them to go. They recently raised prices on EVERY resort except RIV and AUL. How interesting.

 

[Brianstl]

Yes - the point being not so much that Riviera sales are really soft - but more that of the pool of direct buyers - why are such a high percentage (35-40%) choosing to buy old resorts versus previous years (15-20%). I only went back 2 years, but I could've gone back 5 years and the 15-20% number would have stayed the same. Why NOW are 35% of Direct buyers not buying the resort Disney is selling? It's not because Disney is marketing the old resorts more.

Of course I can't be sure - but if I was Disney I would be VERY concerned with why this is occurring. Not that Riviera sales are maybe down slightly versus year over year, but why buyers are choosing to buy elsewhere in much greater numbers than at Riviera.

The restrictions no doubt play a big part in the reason why more direct buyers are buying at "sold out" resorts. The main contributor to this I think is most people looking to add on choosing L14 instead of Riviera because they understand the potential impact of the restrictions better than first time buyers.

But again, there is something else going on overall with the DVC market. October direct point sales are down over 18% in just two years. I think that is a result of something more than just the Riviera restrictions.

 

[skier_pete]

It could be something as simple as people choosing the known vs. the unknown. When you think about it, every new DVC resort that has been marketed for as far back as I can remember has been attached to or associated with an already existing resort. When Riviera opens up, it will shift from unknown to known, and then we will see if people are choosing it or the older resorts.

That said, Disney is very good at directing its customers where it wants them to go. They recently raised prices on EVERY resort except RIV and AUL. How interesting.

Yes - I've pointed this out repeatedly - this well could be just because of the "Riviera is not open" it's definitely a possibility. BUT - I've heard people complain that they won't buy because of the resale restrictions and I've heard people say they won't buy because of the high points charts. I've only maybe twice seen someone mention they won't buy because the resort isn't open yet. We'll simply have to see on this one - to me we have to look around 6 months after opening. If they are still seeing only 65% sales from Riviera - they're going to have to look to something else.

 

[ELMC]

Yes - I've pointed this out repeatedly - this well could be just because of the "Riviera is not open" it's definitely a possibility. BUT - I've heard people complain that they won't buy because of the resale restrictions and I've heard people say they won't buy because of the high points charts. I've only maybe twice seen someone mention they won't buy because the resort isn't open yet. We'll simply have to see on this one - to me we have to look around 6 months after opening. If they are still seeing only 65% sales from Riviera - they're going to have to look to something else.

All valid points. The one thing I'd like to add is that we are fairly insulated here. I wonder if the average Joe on the street DVC buyer is voicing the same concerns.

That said, I think I am in the minority in my stark realism on the resale restrictions. I'm prepared to be wrong but I think there is less than a 1% chance that Disney removes them. IMO you'll sooner see even higher prices on legacy resorts and greater discounts on RIV. The restrictions seem like an integral part of a much longer-term plan. I don't think they remove them over slightly slower than expected sales.

 

[Ruttangel]

Even though I choose to buy, it was because in my case, and the profit I had from selling BWV, the resale value became less of an issue. Had I not had that, it wound have been a tough sell,

does it not bother you that you bought (after incentives) a $165 RIV contract by selling a $120 BWV contract, but your RIV contract is worth $120, you effectively lost your profit?
i know you said you won’t sell, but that seems tough.......
as @skier_pete said your contract should be worth more, it’s Disneys fault by putting restrictions on it

 

[CraigInPA]

The resale restrictions and price increases on older resorts smack of decisions made for the sales people.

Sales person complains that he can't sell $188 per point RIV when monorail resorts sell for less than that direct from DVC.
Solution? Raise the direct price.

Sales person complains that he can't sell $188 per point RIV against resale monorail resorts, and can't sell monorail resorts direct because they are too pricey now.
Solution? Put a restriction on L14 and RIV resales to make them less attractive.

What's next?
Sales person complains that he can't sell $188 per point RIV against cheaper OKW and SSR direct...

 

[ELMC]

The resale restrictions and price increases on older resorts smack of decisions made for the sales people.

Sales person complains that he can't sell $188 per point RIV when monorail resorts sell for less than that direct from DVC.
Solution? Raise the direct price.

Sales person complains that he can't sell $188 per point RIV against resale monorail resorts, and can't sell monorail resorts direct because they are too pricey now.
Solution? Put a restriction on L14 and RIV resales to make them less attractive.

What's next?
Sales person complains that he can't sell $188 per point RIV against cheaper OKW and SSR direct...

Everything you say here makes complete sense. That said...from a business perspective what they are doing is, in my opinion, fair game. Please don't confuse that with my liking it, because I don't. I think DVC has gotten to the point where it's a naked cash grab. But to your point, DVD's sole purpose is to sell DVC timeshares. All of the changes you outline above are consistent with that goal. That's not good for those of us who have been successfully exploiting the system for years. But I don't think it was ever in the plans to create a system where people could make tens of thousands of dollars a year on their DVC timeshares. I don't like that they're fixing it, but I don't blame them for trying.

What I do blame them for is the INSANE price increases (in terms of both dollars and points requirements) over the past five years. But I'm pretty sure someone will (rightfully) post contradicting that point just as I have posted contradicting yours.

 

[Sandisw]

does it not bother you that you bought (after incentives) a $165 RIV contract by selling a $120 BWV contract, but your RIV contract is worth $120, you effectively lost your profit?
i know you said you won’t sell, but that seems tough.......
as @skier_pete said your contract should be worth more, it’s Disneys fault by putting restrictions on it

Not at all! While I paid around $165 a point, my net cost for RiV is around $120..given my profit on BWV was around $53/pt.

So, ultimately, I now own a contract at RIV that is worth about the same $120 my BWV is worth in today’s market. But, I have points that expire 28 years later and I got my kids in as blue card members, who will capitalize on the AP discount.

Since I don’t intend to sell, and resale value has never been that important to me..I consider it a sunk cost, But, even so, say I had kept BWV and then Needed to sell in 10 years. I am pretty confident that at that point, with only about 12 years left, its resale value won’t be more than RIV.

Of course, I still own 150 BWV and 500 SSR points and If forced to sell, SSR would be the first to go, further cushioning me from the resale value Of a RiV.

The other piece is that profit I have in my DVC contracts is only worth something if and when you sell. So, as long as one keeps and uses DVC, IMO, it’s a profit that really means nothing. The good thing is that witch this transaction I put that profit to use to enhance my DVC membership.

 

[Wakey]

I think Pete’s correct. I keep saying it but I would probably have bought Riviera. What the restrictions did was to put me off. So where do I buy? My resort where I have 3 other contracts- SSR. And I buy it resale. So it not only lost them a sale at the new resort, it lost them a direct sale.
These resale restrictions don’t make sense to me given the intention is to drive more direct sales. It may work long term, but these management are not in it for the decades it will take to work. DVC is a stepping stone, but if it backfires it won’t be.

 

[DougEMG]

For the majority of current owners the resale restrictions are viewed as a problem, but I think that for a new (uniformed) person at WDW that goes to the sales presentation centre, the resale restrictions can be spun as a positive to get you to buy direct. After all, trading to other resorts is a big selling feature, so if you want to try out all those new resorts you need to buy direct.