Sellilng OKW for AKL???

[Disney Fanatic]

Hi Everyone!

My head is spinning right now because I just found out about AKL from the DVC members site and am really confused on what to do.

I have just read over most of the threads as well to get up to speed as best I can.

Here is my situation:

We purchased points 2 years ago when we had one child. Our plan was to always only have 2 children so we bought enough pts for a studio (which we are completely happy with) for a family of 4.

We guess what, last July instead of having one more baby, we were doubly blessed with twins!!

Now we are the family of 5 that needs a 2 bedroom when the kids are older.

There is no way we can afford the pts for a 2 bedroom for the 5 of us so should we sell our pts and switch to AKL.

We travel mostly during mid March and will probably need the 11 month window at AKL.

Lastly, do you think we will have any trouble selling now???

Thanks for any advice.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Why not wait to see if you have problems getting into AKL in 2009?

 

[Dean]

DVC is currently allowing 5 in a 1 BR for all DVC resorts. AKL will have this more formally for many of the units. No way would I sell 1 resort to get another unless you want very difficult things consistently. For AKV that would be the value units, 3 BR and Concierge I believe. Lets assume you sold OKW and bought AKL. For the sale of 160 pts, you'd get maybe $11,000 after commissions. That would only get you 118 pts at AKL. You'd have to spend another $4250 to get back to 160 pts. Why not just do a smaller add on of around 50 pts at AKL for around the same price. Or if you could make it to the 100 pt level, you could get in at $93 instead of $101 pp.

 

[byoung]

Why not wait to see if you have problems getting into AKL in 2009?

I agree here there will be a lot of rms in AKV.

 

[JimC]

Agree with Dean's remarks. The transaction costs are a factor to consider in your strategy.

Unless you want into AKV when the 11 month window is important -- time of year, value/concierge villa, 3 bdrm villa -- you will probably be okay. If not you can buy resale or add-on later when finances permit.

 

[dianeschlicht]

Surprisingly enough, we talked about selling one of our OKW contracts to buy a larger contract at AKV also. We changed our minds though, and instead are adding on a smaller contract at AKV and keeping the 2 OKW contracts for now.

When we looked into what we would see from selling the 150 point contract, we decided the $77 per point minus the agent's commission left us with a bigger bill than we really intended to have. For that reason, we are planning to buy 69 AKV points now, and in 5-10 years, we will again consider selling one or both OKW contracts to buy into either AKV again, or whatever else DVC is selling at the time. The reason being that it is obvious that in 10 years the OKW contracts could be losing their saleability. The prices will start to drop as the contracts get to be less than 25 years. By selling them off and buying AKV resales at that time, we will insure that our points will retain value for at least an additional 10 years. You see, we are 60, so we figure 20 years for doing DVC yet. We are quite sure our "kids" aren't going to be able to afford the maintenance, so it will be up to us to dispose of the points while we are still active and viable. That method of "trading" our OKW points for AKV points 5-10 years into the future insures that we should get a better resale value from the AKV points in 20 years. Not sure any of that made sense. I don't think I described it very well.

 

[mikron]

Not sure any of that made sense. I don't think I described it very well.

PERFECT, I feel AKV prices will come down with Disney promos or resales.

 

[Dean]

PERFECT, I feel AKV prices will come down with Disney promos or resales.

Doubtful. I think it's almost a certainty that retail prices won't come down. And given that you will give up some points over the life of the contract, I doubt you'd make up enough on price to justify it. Even for SSR it's difficult to get resale at a price lower than the pre-construction price which was I believe $72 per point if you bought 120 or more. Someone can correct me if they have better info as I'm going from memory. I know a lot bought the 120 and got the developer points then tried to sell the contract for what they paid. I don't know how successful they were in flipping them though.

 

[Pennyguy23]

You can always wait

 

[dianeschlicht]

Doubtful. I think it's almost a certainty that retail prices won't come down. And given that you will give up some points over the life of the contract, I doubt you'd make up enough on price to justify it. Even for SSR it's difficult to get resale at a price lower than the pre-construction price which was I believe $72 per point if you bought 120 or more. Someone can correct me if they have better info as I'm going from memory. I know a lot bought the 120 and got the developer points then tried to sell the contract for what they paid. I don't know how successful they were in flipping them though.

Dean, I think you missed part of the point I was trying to make. I just re-read my post, and I confused myself! I had a horrible earache, and I think it effected my brain!

My point is that if we assume we will continue to use our DVC points for 20 more years, and we own OKW, there might be some benefit to selling some of the OKW points in the near future to replace them with points that expire 15 years later than the OKW points. That might mean we would get more out of a resale from AKV points in 20 years, than we would from OKW points at that same time. The OKW contracts will only have 15 years left on them in 20 years, but the AKV contracts will still have 30 years left, thus probably making them still an asset on the resale market.

 

[Dean]

Dean, I think you missed part of the point I was trying to make. I just re-read my post, and I confused myself! I had a horrible earache, and I think it effected my brain!

My point is that if we assume we will continue to use our DVC points for 20 more years, and we own OKW, there might be some benefit to selling some of the OKW points in the near future to replace them with points that expire 15 years later than the OKW points. That might mean we would get more out of a resale from AKV points in 20 years, than we would from OKW points at that same time. The OKW contracts will only have 15 years left on them in 20 years, but the AKV contracts will still have 30 years left, thus probably making them still an asset on the resale market.

Thanks Diane, actually I only responded to the idea that it might be cheaper into the future for someone to buy AKV. I think this is unlikely to be the case.

As for selling current resorts and buying AKV, I have mixed emotions. It depends on where you are and where you want to be. I actually intend to do just that. I have already bought the 100 AKV points and have my OKW contract listed for sale. But part of my intention is do downsize, I wouldn't think it a reasonable option for around the same number of points for someone who owns. As I've pointed out a couple of times, you could buy a decent size add on extra for what you'd lose in the transaction.

As to whether one could make up the difference in resale price down the road because of the expiring RTU, it's a gamble but I'd think one likely could at some point.

 

[AKVCRVDVC]

I think I would go ahead and add AKV because I REALLY love the way it is going to look, and I've already stayed at AKL a couple of times which really pushed me over the edge. I would sell the OKW contract unless you are really attached to it for one reason or another.