UPDATE: Math Error! New Numbers, New Plan, DDP+ Math: Drinks and Character Meals FTW

TigerlilyAJ

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 19, 2011
Are you thinking about the DDP or DDP+? Got some buffets or character meals on your Must Do list? Think that an adult beverage at two meals a day sounds like what vacation should be? The dining-plan math works in your favor.
There are lots of ways that the dining plans don't work. No one is here claiming otherwise. But I see some basic errors done over and over when people here tell others Don't Do It! The two biggest are:
1) Not keeping up with Disney price increases when throwing out figures like "A CS meal is $15, a TS $40, a snack $5." Some people decided the plans weren't for them in, like, 2017, and have never really sat down and crunched numbers since. I just made a spreadsheet a mere 9 months ago, July 2019, to prep for our January 2020 trip with the traditional DDP. Now, making a new one here in April for a Oct 2020 trip, I'm struck by how many meal prices I have to update (emphasis on "up"). A couple dollars per person per meal adds up, tipping scales toward the plans, as the plans' prices have increased at a lower percentage year over year compared to menu prices. Sorry, no quick answers to whether the plan works for your trip. Crack open an Excel or Google docs spreadsheet and start entering figures.
2) Ignoring Alcohol/Specialty Drinks. Anyone saying a meal costs X dollars is not figuring out alcohol. Its inclusion for guests 21+ is a game changer. For example, at Woody's Lunchbox (CS), I enjoyed a $9 grilled cheese and $4 tomato soup side. These are the kind of numbers that lead people to statements like "A CS meal is $15." But I didn't get a free cup of water or a $4 pop to wash down my meal. I ordered a $12 Grown-Up's Lemonade. That meal OOP would be (9+4+12)*1.065 (sales tax), or $26.60 despite me eating the least expensive "vegetarian" entree. And baby, I did this at every meal, TS or CS. For those under 21, people who don't drink, or those who might not want to imbibe at *every* meal, you can order specialty drinks. At Woody's, my kids (two Disney adults, two young kids) got to have $5.49 root-beer floats with their meals, a huge hit and included with their CS credits. At CRT, my kids had strawberry smoothies, my DH a beer (he stuck with beers around the resort and was pleased with the quality), and I champagne. That glass was $20, something I would never consider paying OOP. At Story Book Dining, we all had the fun specialty drinks (with and without alcohol), adding $41 to our tally. I had to pay 18% of that in the form of tip, but that still left $33.62 we had included on top of the basic price of $318 the meal cost with just basic drinks--which we still got along with our specialty drinks. So more than 10% in additional value to what a lot of bloggers and people here would quote as the cost of dining there (neglecting $20.67 in sales tax as well, so the meal really would be $54 more than the simple menu price).
Man, we had fun. Every meal felt like a celebration with all the flourishes.
I also have never understood the widespread acceptance of the idea that the average snack is $5, so the "two snacks are $10" of the plan cost. $5 is closer to a minimum, not an average--and that's before adding the sales tax that included in your plan price. Kat Saka's kettle corn is $6.49 ($6.91 after tax), Mickey Pretzels are $6.79 ($7.23), churros $6.19 ($6.59), Blue bantha milk is $8 ($8.52), funnel cake with ice cream is $8.49 ($9.04), Insta-worthy cupcakes are $6 ($6.38) as is the non-alcoholic Night Blossom drink in Pandora. OK, a basic Dole Whip is $4.99 ($5.31), but the floats are $1 more and with the pineapple upside-down cake $2 more, but the same 1 snack credit cost. I really think that $6, or $12 for the two is a more realistic current figure, and still easily topped in practice.

OK, back to today's trip planning. Now, I was looking at the regular DDP for our short, 4-night stay. (January was a 7-night trip.) We want to go back to Woody's, Docking Bay 7, and Ronto Roasters, so it's easy to do CS only at DHS. Same with AK, where we want Satu'li Canteen and Pongu Pongu noms and fries. So then we save TS for our MK days, where I find CS options far less appealing. Then, I found a 2-night opening at DH's new fave, CL Deluxe room at BWI. So we now have a reservation there, doing AK and DHS out of pocket, supplementing with breakfast at the club along with a light dinner and snacks and alcohol at the club, too. But then we move to two final nights in a Cabin at FW, where, I have to note, a cabin and the DDP+ plan for six costs less per night than the CL deluxe at BWI (but an AP discount will hopefully change that). The kids want CRT breakfast, HEA dinner, CP breakfast, GG breakfast, and San Angel Inn. That's five TS meals over 2.5 park days with 4 meal credits available on the DDP+. Obviously, CRT should be OOP rather than use 2 TS credits. (In fact, as prices for other character meals have increased and caught up, it has become almost criminal to use two credits on CRT, esp at breakfast.) I added it all up, adding on sales tax and deducting 10% on OOP costs for my AP discount.

OOP $1434 With Tax and Tip $1792.50
OOP with AP 10% Discount $1290.60 With Tax and Tip $1613.25
CRT OOP + DDP+ $1439.80 With Tip $1720.80

ETA:
The DDP+ figure of $1439.80 is wrong! I used the cost of a the Deluxe plan ($575/day for my family) in that amount instead of the correct DDP+ figure of $448/day!
The new math:
CRT OOP + DDP+ $1285.8 With Tip $1520.25
So, $93 less than OOP and with 24 snack credits included! And that's before you consider that the OOP cost has no specialty or alcoholic drinks. So, even using the conservative estimate of $100 more for fun drinks for six at five TS meals (so totally unrealistic) and $5 for each snack credit ($120 total), it's a big savings. We could leave all the snack credits unused and still come out ahead.
But this realization of the Oopsie in my first run of figures had be double checking other things and looking at possibilities using all four of the plans over our split stay or some combination of a plan and OOP. It took ALL day, mainly because there were so many different possibilities to consider. My findings now in my latest reply (Mon, April 13) to this thread! (I'm excited.)

But that's strictly meals only. No specialty drinks for kids, no alcohol for DH and me. At an additional $20-40 per meal, that $1720.80 includes $100-200 in drinks that we definitely want, erasing the $107.55 advantage of my AP discount OOP scenario.
And all that is before considering the the DDP+ gets us two snacks per person per day, or 24 snacks for my family. Even at a conservative $5 estimate, that's another $120 we get on the plan, letting us go crazy on our last full park day, spent at Epcot, getting Karamell-Kuche corn to take home with us on our long drive home (it stays good a long time!), sushi snacks, macarons, and gelato.

Or I might ditch all that for four nights at AoA or the Cabins (esp if no solid AP discount comes out) with DDP, so we really focus on snacks rather than meals at Epcot, swap San Angel for Minnie's Halloween Dine at H&V. That would be $1508 for six of us over four nights and would erase the CS OOP costs at Satu'li, Woody's, Ronto Roasters, and DB7. See, doing this exercise has made me (probably) change my mind for our vacation.

Check today's prices, remember that 6.5% sales tax matters, and think what would you and your family really like to drink on vacation. Enjoy!
 
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It works for some people for others not. For example for people who don't do buffets or don't have kids, don't eat snacks and might have small appetites it probably wouldn't work out. Add in a lot of people get it as part of a package where they pay rack rate for a room and the math might not add up there either. It really is an individual thing and you point #1 is spot on, open a spreadsheet or use a calculator, look at menus and be honest about what you would eat and not just pick the most expensive thing on the menu. It doesn't work for my son and I. Both adults and we do enjoy refreshing adult beverages but we rarely snack in between meals unless snacks are our meals, we rarely eat desserts unless we share one but do enjoy appetizers, sometimes two appetizers are my meal. I don't drink soft drinks, I just drink water with my meals or a refreshing adult beverage. If we eat QS, I tend to eat a kid's meal because I don't have a big appetite. I also get kid's meals for breakfast. The numbers don't add up for us.
 
It works for some people for others not. ...The numbers don't add up for us.
Sure, and those numbers are based on solid knowledge of how you eat. So the post isn't really geared at you. It's meant for people who are trying to decide about plans and have people throwing numbers at them about what an "average" meal costs (never including the expensive drinks that the plans now cover, which would add $10 to each adult's meal).
I am in a very particular life circumstance with four kids, two of whom are still at child prices for the rest of 2020, and as someone who is going to drink alcohol and *loves* being able to say Yes, Yes, Yes at WDW when the kids want milkshakes or smoothies or floats, when they want another bag of specialty popcorn, compared to our normal life, where we avoid drive throughs unless we have a coupon and avoid ordering drinks, taking food home and drinking what we have there (so water, milk, juice, almost never pop). I enjoy getting to go full out on vacation, and the DDP makes that stance a bit less expensive.
We're also a family that strongly feels character meals are an integral part of a Disney vacation. We have nice restaurants, even theme restaurants closer to home we could enjoy. Being at the park means being with our special Disney friends. These meals also save us time on Meet & Greets. Other people don't care about such things, and I'm not trying to convince anyone otherwise.
But if you're going to do 2+ character meals? If you're going to want alcohol with your celebration? Then crunch some real numbers, not the ones the naysayers like to throw around.
 


Sure, and those numbers are based on solid knowledge of how you eat. So the post isn't really geared at you. It's meant for people who are trying to decide about plans and have people throwing numbers at them about what an "average" meal costs (never including the expensive drinks that the plans now cover, which would add $10 to each adult's meal).
I am in a very particular life circumstance with four kids, two of whom are still at child prices for the rest of 2020, and as someone who is going to drink alcohol and *loves* being able to say Yes, Yes, Yes at WDW when the kids want milkshakes or smoothies or floats, when they want another bag of specialty popcorn, compared to our normal life, where we avoid drive throughs unless we have a coupon and avoid ordering drinks, taking food home and drinking what we have there (so water, milk, juice, almost never pop). I enjoy getting to go full out on vacation, and the DDP makes that stance a bit less expensive.
We're also a family that strongly feels character meals are an integral part of a Disney vacation. We have nice restaurants, even theme restaurants closer to home we could enjoy. Being at the park means being with our special Disney friends. These meals also save us time on Meet & Greets. Other people don't care about such things, and I'm not trying to convince anyone otherwise.
But if you're going to do 2+ character meals? If you're going to want alcohol with your celebration? Then crunch some real numbers, not the ones the naysayers like to throw around.

You put it best! This is exactly us! We feel character meals are essential- we actually upgraded to the DDP+ for our next trip so we can do one a day and still do "real" meals too. I might not come ahead in the long run, but I LOVE the ease of knowing it's all paid for.
 
It’s always a math exercise:chat:
That requires accurate numbers, which include price increases OOP that outpace increases in plan costs, and ALCOHOL. People on this DDP board who disdain the plans regularly throw out numbers that are arguably wrong or misleading. $15 for a CS meal? Not if you get even the least expensive beer on the menu. So even generalizations that have some merit like "Vegetarians lose out on the plans" go out the window if that person is gonna sip wine with their veggie scramble (like the delicious one I had at Landscape of Flavors) at lunch.
So again, yeah, it's a math exercise, but "garbage in, garbage out." People need real numbers.
 


OK, folks, it took all day, poring over menus at CS places to get an estimate of our meals' costs and then going over several different combinations of OOP, QSP, DDP, DDP+, and DeluxeDP plans to find the best option for my split-stay trip. The split-stay aspect is important to making some options work, like getting a plan for one of the two-night stays, but going OOP for the other two-night stay, and when credits would be available to use.
I will give you the highlights. Seeing that I made the mistake of using the Deluxe price instead of the DDP+ price, I realized Hey, maybe the Deluxe plan could come into play, as it is not that much more and would eliminate the need to pay for CRT OOP. I also added a CS meal in the form of Regal Eagle, as I think it will be a crowd pleaser with the kids, and another as BOG PPO breakfast in the hopes of using it to get a jump on SDMT. (We never got a FP for it last trip and only rode it at EMM.) I ditched Crystal Palace and Akershus. So the roster here includes:
TS: CRT Breakfast, HEA dinner, GG Breakfast
CS: Satu'li, Woody's, DB7, BOG Breakfast, Regal Eagle

OOP TS (with tips, without alcohol) $997 + OOP CS (without alcohol) $568 + 0 Snacks = $1565
DDP x 4 Days + Woody's OOP (with tips and alcohol on plan meals, plus 48 snacks) = $1761
DDP+ x 2 days + 5 CS OOP (with tips and alcohol at TS, plus 24 snacks) = $1637
DlxDP x 2 days + 3 CS OOP (with tips and alcohol at TS, plus 24 snacks) = $1595

So, for my reckoning for this particular stay and restaurant choices, the DDP+ is out of the running. For a mere $30 more, using the Deluxe plan over the second half of our stay, particularly the two extra TS credits for CRT on the day we switch hotels, we get 24 snacks to use for six people over 2.5 park days. The OOP figure has ZERO snacks, and thus is unrealistic. Even at one $5 snack per person per day, you have to add ($5 x 5 days x 6 people + tax)=$160, bringing OOP to $1725. It would be the clear winner, except that DHS currently lists no EMH or EMM or any SW fireworks. Plus even the current EMH at other parks etc could change. So it is possible that my plan for which park on which day might need to change. For $166 more than the 2-day Deluxe plan, I could get the traditional DDP for four days, which would give us more flexibility on when the TS meals could take place, 24 more snacks, 48 total, that could be used any and all days of our trip (especially important if our Epcot day needs to be moved, as we snack around the world), and alcohol included at the CS meals. That's a reasonable upgrade in my book.
Whew. It took a lot, but ultimately it was fun and illuminating. The QS plan is not going to help anyone who has an AP/DVC discount and not really a value unless you want the most expensive menu items and drinks--but if it were part of a FD offer, that's a different equation (literally). But the QS still gives that all-inclusive, pre-paid benefits, so you don't have to bring a loaded gift card or make sure you keep money saved to pay cash or pay off your credit card after your vacation. Because of having one 2-credit TS meal (CRT) and one *outrageously* priced CS meal (BOG breakfast), the DlxDP presented a value.
 
As I always say, it is a math exercise

one thing you have not factored is if someone gets sick. Or doesn’t want to eat.

I always advise anyone considering dxdp and thinking 3 meals a day is doable to go to their local favorite chain and everyone orders 3 courses. Everyone.

Preferably at a really busy time too. Then go walk a couple mikes. Then do it again for dinner.

it’s a different game when you do signature dining. Then it’s basically 2 meals a day and snacks. Much more doable and signature dining is much more geared to right portion sizes for ordering multiple courses.

ymmv
 
As I always say, it is a math exercise

one thing you have not factored is if someone gets sick. Or doesn’t want to eat.

I always advise anyone considering dxdp and thinking 3 meals a day is doable to go to their local favorite chain and everyone orders 3 courses. Everyone.

Preferably at a really busy time too. Then go walk a couple mikes. Then do it again for dinner.

it’s a different game when you do signature dining. Then it’s basically 2 meals a day and snacks. Much more doable and signature dining is much more geared to right portion sizes for ordering multiple courses.

ymmv
Exactly. Even the regular DDP was too much food for us. I can’t imagine having the Dxdp.
 
Thank you original poster. I think I’m right there with you. Done a few trips over the past few years but never on the plan. DW has always wanted to do it, mainly because of peace of mind, prepay, cruise like ai feel. I pushed back because of all the estimates and experts who say you ”never” get full value, who eats that much?, etc. My fam structure is very similar to yours, 2 adults + 2 Disney adults (13, 10) + 2 kids (9, 6). Funny thing is it will almost work better for us now that we are forced adult with the 10, he has ordered consistently from the adult menu for many years...he loathes chicken nuggets and Mac and cheese. And DW and I will always have an adult beverage with our meal (L&D). Without crunching the numbers, but aligning how/where we did our meals On those last trips we align more closely with your numbers so I’m really leaning the dining plan. Now it’s which one, as the deluxe might actually suit us better.

We are DVC, so breakfasts will always be in the room. But the dining is almost as important to us as the rides (probably more). CA grill is a must do every trip now, and everyone does app, entree, dessert, and that was OOP. We always do 2 TS at Epcot. Did BOG dinner both of last two trips, although kids are done with that. And did one character meal each of last two. Kids want to try Topolinos and La Cellier this trip, and I want to take them to Hoop Dee Doo. oh and they are snackers, isn’t a trip without a popcorn, coke, churros, ice cream, etc. So leaning deluxe, but will still still run the excel sheet to see.

Thanks again for this thread.
 
I just want to laugh at alcohol being included. It's basically virgin lemonades with how much alcohol they put in things.

In addition what seems to be a strict requirement for kids to eat off the kids menu and it's hard to justify. Although will see what happens when WDW reopens and how strict they are with kids.
 
Thanks for sharing!
It is a math exercise, but we need the current full expenses and our own typical meals to start.
Every meal felt like a celebration with all the flourishes.
That is the beauty :) DDP can be a really fun focus on a trip.

The way I summarize to friends/family is: if you plan on doing any character buffets, like to imbibe on vacation and don't mind a little research/planning ahead, it's definitely worth checking DDP numbers. If you already see yourself spending large on food budget, DDP can get you a lot more for that money.

Not for all trip styles but makes sense for some pockets. It takes some work to fully utilize it too.
 
What's the HEA dinner you mentioned? I can't figure that one out.

Thanks for your calculations. We're just two disney adults, one who doesn't always drink alcohol, so I'm always trying to figure out the best way to eat at the restaurants we like for the best cost.
 
Disney math is one of my fav past times! lol We did the DDP on our first trip- 2 kids were still Disney kid pricing, and 1 was free. Now, we have 2 kids that are Disney adults and the 3rd is darn close. The price is HUGE for a week. And the younger 2 barely eat, and I'll often just order them a side. They're fine with some fries. lol And I occasionally order kids meals as well. So the DDP at this point, would cost so much more. But I continue to figure it out every single time... on our last trip, I planned 1 TS each day for 6 of the 7 days. I ended up cancelling at least one of my ADR's bc we just weren't hungry enough to justify going. We are snack people. We graze a lot! If anything, I could see the QS plan working out at some point, and paying OOP maybe for a TS or two possibly. But I completely understand why people love being on the plan. I did too! I think you are right- that what worked a couple years ago, doesn't necessarily work now, and it's important to do the research to make the right choice. I feel like all of our trips are so different. Our budget is always different, our goals or must do's are always different, the places we want to eat are different....so for me, I'm never going to write it off, or on for that matter, bc my situation is constantly evolving, which is the point of this post. ;)
 
What's the HEA dinner you mentioned? I can't figure that one out.

Thanks for your calculations. We're just two disney adults, one who doesn't always drink alcohol, so I'm always trying to figure out the best way to eat at the restaurants we like for the best cost.
Yeah that's a tough one. Kids 10-20yo and people who don't drink are at a "disadvantage" in having the dining plans be a good deal.
People here love to tell me that none of the behavioral-economics research applies to them, but if you know that some combination of pre-paying or feeling like you're on an "all-inclusive" vacation or just avoiding having to face a large-for-you dinner bill would make you enjoy your vacation more, it is worth considering.
For us, as a party of six, we get character-meal bills that are bigger than our nightly resort rate.

As for HEA, it's the Happily Ever After dinner (dinner only) at 1900 Park Fare in the Grand Floridian. It's a (small but good) buffet with Cinderella, Prince Charming, and her stepmother and stepsisters. 🙂
 
Disney math is one of my fav past times! lol We did the DDP on our first trip- 2 kids were still Disney kid pricing, and 1 was free. Now, we have 2 kids that are Disney adults and the 3rd is darn close. The price is HUGE for a week. And the younger 2 barely eat, and I'll often just order them a side. They're fine with some fries. lol And I occasionally order kids meals as well. So the DDP at this point, would cost so much more. But I continue to figure it out every single time... on our last trip, I planned 1 TS each day for 6 of the 7 days. I ended up cancelling at least one of my ADR's bc we just weren't hungry enough to justify going. We are snack people. We graze a lot! If anything, I could see the QS plan working out at some point, and paying OOP maybe for a TS or two possibly. But I completely understand why people love being on the plan. I did too! I think you are right- that what worked a couple years ago, doesn't necessarily work now, and it's important to do the research to make the right choice. I feel like all of our trips are so different. Our budget is always different, our goals or must do's are always different, the places we want to eat are different....so for me, I'm never going to write it off, or on for that matter, bc my situation is constantly evolving, which is the point of this post. ;)

Srsly, once I have three kids who get adult prices but still too young for alcohol (LOL), two of whom are lighter eaters, it will not make sense, esp as they are less into character meals. (Just did the age math and realized I will have one horrible year where are all four kids will be 10+ buy also all under 21. No way!)
My next project is to look at the QS plan for a girls' trip with a cost-sensitive friend who really won't mind all QS meals--esp if they still come with an adult beverage. I'm tempted to get the plan just because I know it will help her relax, knowing she is "supposed" to indulge in not one but two snacks, even if they're priced ridiculously, that of course you throw on a $12 alcoholic drink at 1pm. It's all included, already paid for!
 
As for HEA, it's the Happily Ever After dinner (dinner only) at 1900 Park Fare in the Grand Floridian. It's a (small but good) buffet with Cinderella, Prince Charming, and her stepmother and stepsisters

FWIW, most of us just call that 1900 Park Fare dinner. Calling it HEA dinner is confusing since that is the acronym used for the fireworks at MK.
 
Srsly, once I have three kids who get adult prices but still too young for alcohol (LOL), two of whom are lighter eaters, it will not make sense, esp as they are less into character meals. (Just did the age math and realized I will have one horrible year where are all four kids will be 10+ buy also all under 21. No way!)
My next project is to look at the QS plan for a girls' trip with a cost-sensitive friend who really won't mind all QS meals--esp if they still come with an adult beverage. I'm tempted to get the plan just because I know it will help her relax, knowing she is "supposed" to indulge in not one but two snacks, even if they're priced ridiculously, that of course you throw on a $12 alcoholic drink at 1pm. It's all included, already paid for!
I think this hints at a great point I rarely see. I grew up on a tight budget, and even though DH and I are comfortable enough to splurge I still have that part of my brain that looks at a menu and immediately disregards anything above a certain price point. I remember the days of having to order the cheapest thing on the menu by necessity. So often the argument is to look at a menu and be realistic about what you’d order. Well, I—and definitely someone like your friend—wouldn’t order the most expensive thing on the menu even if it’s the thing I really want.

To be able to consider ANYTHING on the menu (included in the plan of course) and not feel like I need to restrict myself is such a big thing for a lot of people.

So, yes, I can eat at Disney cheaper than what I’m paying for the plan even at the same restaurants, but the plan helps me lose self-imposed restrictions.

Some people see the plan as limiting. Other see it as freeing.

I hope your friend feels absolutely spoiled.
 
To be able to consider ANYTHING on the menu (included in the plan of course) and not feel like I need to restrict myself is such a big thing for a lot of people.

So, yes, I can eat at Disney cheaper than what I’m paying for the plan even at the same restaurants, but the plan helps me lose self-imposed restrictions.

Some people see the plan as limiting. Other see it as freeing.

Of course, the flip side of this is also true. Because I've paid a certain amount already for the plan, I need to make sure I'm "spending" at least that amount when I eat. So I will almost always only order the more expensive items even if that's not what I really want to eat.

So, yes, I can make the plan work and spend the correct amount, but I'm not always eating what I want, even at the same restaurants because I've self-imposed a need to not lose money.
 

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