My Journey to 50 miles (2nd attempt)... (comments welcome)

I found this very interesting. At my job its all who really knows, WFH until we know. We are on stay at home order (not shelter in place) for 2 weeks, but we are all curious if this will go on longer. We were hoping to head back around Easter, but I am thinking that is not likely.
 
I found this very interesting. At my job its all who really knows, WFH until we know. We are on stay at home order (not shelter in place) for 2 weeks, but we are all curious if this will go on longer. We were hoping to head back around Easter, but I am thinking that is not likely.

As an example, Wuhan instituted full quarantine on 1/23/20. They are reporting no new cases for 5 straight days. They have just started today to lighten the restrictions of a full quarantine. That's where my guess of 8-9 weeks is coming from. But they instituted that when they had 830 total cases (Day 2). Italy did it when they had 9172 cases (Day 13) and Spain had 7845 cases (Day 9). The US has done it in spots (not nation wide) when I believe the number of cases if using the same level of testing as other countries to be around 75,000-125,000 cases. I believe from the symptom life cycle of this virus the 21-22 day to drop and 8-9 week quarantine make sense. But it remains to be seen, whether it works in other places other than China. The sooner places go into full quarantine mode, the sooner it will be over. The later people wait to do so, the higher the end peak will be, but the down swing will remain at 21-22 days.

But I am in no way I virologist or epidemiologist. So take my numbers through the lens of just another person reading the data.
 
Thanks Billy, I figured you would be able to shed some light on the situation. I've been following along on the Johns Hopkins site, watching the trend. But I really didn't have any idea where it was leading. Our company is deemed critical to transportation and military so I don't see them shutting it down anytime soon.

What I'd really like to see is more cleaning of the high touch surfaces and items that are shared among employees. (exp. turnstiles and radios) I keep my hand sanitizer with me at all times!!

Hope everyone stays healthy!!
 
Monday- did my body weight work out. Happy to say that I managed to do 3 sets of 15 regular push-ups. Before today I had to do some of them on my knees. Still have to do the diamond push-ups on my knees. All a work in progress. Also starting to add some weight for the squats and lunges. Thinking I'll social distance tonight with 5 miles of running. I haven't done more than 3 for awhile. Might feel good to go a little farther.

Work has finally decided to close down the plant. As of today there are 39 confirmed cases (not all of them at my plant). They are closing for a minimum of 14 days starting tomorrow. Doesn't really change much for me. As part of facilities, I'm deemed essential and I'll be working most if not all of those 14 days. On the plus side they are giving us an hour of vacation for every hour we work of the shutdown, up to 80 hours. So 2 more weeks of vacation for me!! That's 10, 3 days weekends for those keeping score at home! Or, 2 weeks I can go visit DD and family in FL.
 


Tuesday- Went out for a little longer run last night. 5 miles at what I was trying to keep around my LR pace. Turns out, I still suck at keeping a steady pace. Ended up close to my M pace at some points. HR was a little higher than it would have been in December. But I'm blaming that on lack of running. Felt really really good to run a little harder, and a little longer. Going to do a body workout tonight and then venture out to get some groceries. We are technically on lock down. But grocery stores are still open.

3-24-20.PNG

42 cases company wide now. Hopefully with the shutdown, the cases will stop climbing and we should start to see the number coming down. Most people I talk to fear that the shutdown will last longer than 2 weeks. I feel for the younger guys that will be struggling once the company stops paying them. That's going to make things tough on them.
 
Wednesday- did my body weight workout. Whew, who knew you could work up such a sweat just using your own weight for the most part.

Donna is still struggling with the pinched nerve. We were supposed to run yesterday, but she was feeling worse than ever. She used her neck hammock and heating pad last night but was still in a lot of pain. I made her go to bed early and take a muscle relaxer. Even with all of that she still didn't get a good nights sleep. She did her exercises and stretching this morning. I sure hope this gets better soon. I'd hate to see her go under the knife for it.

Wow! We jumped to 49 cases over night.

Yesterday, I braved the grocery store and of course I forgot to get eggs. Dang it.... getting old sucks.
 


Beats the heck out of the alternative, though.
Definitely!!

Friday- Did the full body workout again. Happy with my progress with it. May go for a run today, need to get out and get some fresh air!! Going to have to brave the store again at some point...

Work covid update. 55 cases company wide Friday, 73 cases company wide Saturday. Sure would like to see this number stop climbing. I'm guessing this shutdown is going to last more than 2 weeks.
 
Realistically I would imagine a small localized cluster is not terribly different than a city, county, state or country. It will likely have a similar sigmoidal growth as we see on a larger scale. The same could be possible with the shutdown quarantine effect. So it’s not inconceivable to think that the shutdown of your plant will take a similar time frame as country shutdowns and be around 21-22 days to reach the top end of the curve. If you know the numbers from each of the days then you can tell me and I can plot it out for you to give you some idea.
 
3/9 – 4

3/10 - 1

3/11

3/12 - 1

3/13

3/14

3/15 - 1

3/16 - 2

3/17 - 2

3/18 - 1

3/19 - 1

3/20 - 2

3/21 - 2

3/22 - 1

3/23 - 4

3/24 - 5

3/25

3/26 - 1

3/27 - 10

I know these don't add up to 73. This is just the information from the plant I work at. I can't explain the dramatic rise on 3/27. What I'm sharing is the daily new reports of cases. Some of these cases are people assigned to the plant but are working from home.
 
3/9 – 4

3/10 - 1

3/11

3/12 - 1

3/13

3/14

3/15 - 1

3/16 - 2

3/17 - 2

3/18 - 1

3/19 - 1

3/20 - 2

3/21 - 2

3/22 - 1

3/23 - 4

3/24 - 5

3/25

3/26 - 1

3/27 - 10

I know these don't add up to 73. This is just the information from the plant I work at. I can't explain the dramatic rise on 3/27. What I'm sharing is the daily new reports of cases. Some of these cases are people assigned to the plant but are working from home.

Hmm that makes it tough. The total from these numbers is 38. The number of had in the previous message is 55. So looks we are missing approximately 17 people from the previous 15 days. And then an increase of 18 people on 3/28 (55 to 73). I went through your posts the last few days to find where you stated how many people had it and overlayed that with the information above. Not a perfect system, but something better than nothing. If I use the same rate of decline as seen in Italy and China, then you get the following:

Screen Shot 2020-03-28 at 12.45.20 PM.png

I want to stress that this is me just overlaying the information and doesn't represent anything official by any means. It's not meant to be fear mongering or anything just a shot in the dark to give you an idea what things will look like if your plant cluster follows a similar sigmoidal curve as Italy and China.
 
Hmm that makes it tough. The total from these numbers is 38. The number of had in the previous message is 55. So looks we are missing approximately 17 people from the previous 15 days. And then an increase of 18 people on 3/28 (55 to 73). I went through your posts the last few days to find where you stated how many people had it and overlayed that with the information above. Not a perfect system, but something better than nothing. If I use the same rate of decline as seen in Italy and China, then you get the following:

View attachment 484016

I want to stress that this is me just overlaying the information and doesn't represent anything official by any means. It's not meant to be fear mongering or anything just a shot in the dark to give you an idea what things will look like if your plant cluster follows a similar sigmoidal curve as Italy and China.
I know the data is a little confusing.

So the total I gave (38) was just for the plant that I work at.

The 73 number is from the entire company on a global level.

I guess the reality is, that I only really care about what is going on at my plant and what is happening in the state of WA. I'm still at work until next Wednesday and then I'm on call for a week. We are all supposed to return to work on the 8th. But given the virus hasn't peaked and doesn't appear to peak until sometime after the 8th, I'm wondering if everyone will return to work then or sometime after?
 
I know the data is a little confusing.

So the total I gave (38) was just for the plant that I work at.

The 73 number is from the entire company on a global level.

I guess the reality is, that I only really care about what is going on at my plant and what is happening in the state of WA. I'm still at work until next Wednesday and then I'm on call for a week. We are all supposed to return to work on the 8th. But given the virus hasn't peaked and doesn't appear to peak until sometime after the 8th, I'm wondering if everyone will return to work then or sometime after?

Screen Shot 2020-03-28 at 2.08.39 PM.png

So something like this then. 291 people at the plant by 4/16 if it were to follow a similar pattern to Italy and China. The reality of China is that an outbreak can take as long as 11 weeks to return to near flat occurrence levels. But it's still way too early for me to say anything since only China is really out that far in terms of outbreak.
 
View attachment 484021

So something like this then. 291 people at the plant by 4/16 if it were to follow a similar pattern to Italy and China. The reality of China is that an outbreak can take as long as 11 weeks to return to near flat occurrence levels. But it's still way too early for me to say anything since only China is really out that far in terms of outbreak.

Yikes! That's a lot of sick folks! So they closed the plant on 3/25. Would you expect to see the numbers change due to that?

Looks like we added 2 on 3/28.

One thing about all these numbers is that I'm not sure how many actually contracted the virus here at the plant. Last email from the company stated that none of the current cases are confirmed to have been contracted here.
 
Yikes! That's a lot of sick folks! So they closed the plant on 3/25. Would you expect to see the numbers change due to that?

Looks like we added 2 on 3/28.

One thing about all these numbers is that I'm not sure how many actually contracted the virus here at the plant. Last email from the company stated that none of the current cases are confirmed to have been contracted here.

That simulation is based on the plant closing on 3/25 (Marked in orange) and it following an Italy/China like sigmodial curve. A big problem with scaling down is that each person represents a bigger percentage which is going to introduce a lot of noise. The reason it scales up even though you closed is the possibility that on that specific day of closing there is still a max 14 day incubation period for the virus. Meaning on the closing day you could still have caught it from the plant as much as two weeks later. And since not everyone shows symptoms it means that people could be passing it when not yet confirmed.

You have 40/1000 people with the virus at the plant. I am unaware of any location globally on a larger scale that has that high of %. For example, Italy is about 1.5/1000 people as a country. Thus, I would conclude it is highly likely that the people were contracting it via the plant or the area you live in is abnormally high.
 
That simulation is based on the plant closing on 3/25 (Marked in orange) and it following an Italy/China like sigmodial curve. A big problem with scaling down is that each person represents a bigger percentage which is going to introduce a lot of noise. The reason it scales up even though you closed is the possibility that on that specific day of closing there is still a max 14 day incubation period for the virus. Meaning on the closing day you could still have caught it from the plant as much as two weeks later. And since not everyone shows symptoms it means that people could be passing it when not yet confirmed.

You have 40/1000 people with the virus at the plant. I am unaware of any location globally on a larger scale that has that high of %. For example, Italy is about 1.5/1000 people as a country. Thus, I would conclude it is highly likely that the people were contracting it via the plant or the area you live in is abnormally high.

We are just north of Seattle, so I think we have a pretty high rate of occurrence in the area. But, I suspect you are correct that the virus has been spread via the plant. There are tons of common high touch places where it could spread. Not to mention just working inside the tube of an airplane. Even with social distancing of 6 ft, you are in pretty close confines.

Fortunately for me, I don't work on the plane and I keep my distance from most people anyway!

BTW, we got our shirts!! They fit great and we love them!! Now we just need a race to wear them to!!
 
Just updating the corona count +2 total stands at 40 for my plant and 81 company wide.

I did absolutely no exercising yesterday. Though I've really been getting a brain workout putting together the Cinderella puzzle!!
 
Well, seems like the rate of growth is slower than the projections above. Keeping seeing 0, 1, or 2 is way way better than 4, 5, and 10s.
 
Well, seems like the rate of growth is slower than the projections above. Keeping seeing 0, 1, or 2 is way way better than 4, 5, and 10s.

YES!! I'm happy to see the new cases staying low. Only one new case on 3/30. Hopefully social distancing and keeping people home is paying off.

Monday workout. I am redoing week 2 of the 9 week body weight workout plan. I failed to notice that I was supposed to be doing 4 sets of each last week. So this week I'll remember to do all 4 sets every time!!

week 2 workout.PNG

Again, I'm doing bent over rows w/ dumbbells in place of inverted rows. Pretty happy with the fact that I can do 60 regular push-ups, even if it is 4 sets of 15.

I still do the diamond push-ups on my knees. Maybe next week I'll try and do them regular style. Also, will need to add some weight to the lunges and squats at some point. That may come in two weeks.

Plan is to run this evening. I'm thinking 3 easy miles. We'll see. If the weather is decent, maybe 4.

Left knee started feeling weird as I walked out of work last night. Kinda felt like I had hyper extended it walking. Didn't seem to bother me during the workout. Right now it's a very dull ache. Probably nothing. Just noting it for myself.

Made some travel plans for later. Vegas over Memorial day weekend, I got a killer deal!! Hopefully Vegas will be open by then.

Also, made some plans to head back to St. Louis late June. I haven't been home in a couple years so it's probably about time. Another killer deal! Less than $200 round trip from Seattle to St. Louis. Trying to decide whether I tell my Mom, or just show up on her doorstep. She's getting kinda old for surprises like that, so it's probably best to just tell her.
 
3/31 corona virus count at the plant increased by 4. I know that's only one day. But that's a big increase compared to the last few days. I'm really wondering if the rest of the plant will be coming back to work next week?

Tuesday, ran 3.77 miles. Left knee is still whimpering. Just a really dull ache mostly. But, when I was running uphill I almost had to stop and walk. I going to blame it on lack of stretching. I haven't been very consistent with it since Dopey. As a matter of fact I haven't been very consistent about anything since Dopey.

This week is getting off to a good start. So, I'll see if I can keep it up for the entire week.

Run went something like this.

3-31-20.PNG

Just wanted to keep this easy. It felt good with the exception of the knee. Probably run this again Thursday. Body weight workout tonight!
 

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