What would be your ceiling on the amount of dues you pay?

[SL6827]

How high will the dues have to get before you would think about selling your contract(s)? Nine, ten or eleven dollars a point? More? When would it just not become worth it anymore? And if it were at that point, would you even be able to sell your contract(s)?

 

[MamaBelle4]

Frankly, I don't know.

I'm concerned that resale isn't going to be a viable option. DVD is trying to make it that way, for sure with the loss of perks and the increasing restrictions. Won't surprise me if in a year or two new resale contracts are restricted to staying on that particular property only.

 

[SL6827]

Frankly, I don't know.

I'm concerned that resale isn't going to be a viable option. DVD is trying to make it that way, for sure with the loss of perks and the increasing restrictions. Won't surprise me if in a year or two new resale contracts are restricted to staying on that particular property only.

I agree completely. I totally see that coming. Then you would really buy where you wanted to stay with those restrictions.

 

[bwvBound]

And if it were at that point, would you even be able to sell your contract(s)?

That is the point at which the resort enters a death spiral.

• Dues increase > Owners have trouble selling and choose default/foreclosure.
• The weight of the defaulted shares trigger additional dues increase across the remaining base of owners.
• (Repeat from top)

 

[SL6827]

That is the point at which the resort enters a death spiral.

• Dues increase > Owners have trouble selling and choose default/foreclosure.
• The weight of the defaulted shares trigger additional dues increase across the remaining base of owners.
• (Repeat from top)

I had no idea. That sounds horrific. Maybe I shouldn't have asked.

 

[mustinjourney]

I'm pretty sure most of us fall into the boiling frog scenario with respect to MFs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

 

[MamaBelle4]

I'm pretty sure most of us fall into the boiling frog scenario with respect to MFs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

 

[SL6827]

I'm pretty sure most of us fall into the boiling frog scenario with respect to MFs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_frog

So you think the "death spiral" is inevitable for all the resorts then? Is there a ceiling that the dues could hit or not? What got me thinking was the talk about the dues at Riviera being so high and how the others will follow.

 

[sleepydog25]

I'll be specific: $10. That being said, I don't think I'll see anything beyond that by the time my contract expires (2042), though if the next few percentage increases are larger than normal (there's an argument to be made as to why they would jump) seeing $10+ is entirely possible. At that point, my budget will be less flexible, and the cost of paying MFs would reach near car payment status. Not interested. The latest round of higher MFs, along with the increasingly expensive price per point of the newer resorts, the even higher price per point of some Disney direct sales of older resorts, and the new rules about reselling points bought at Riviera and beyond, have convinced us that our mild case of addonitis is cured.

 

[Bobb_o]

When there's not really any savings anymore. I have to imagine Disney hotels will keep getting more expensive so there will be savings.

 

[DougEMG]

When rental rates fall below twice MF.

 

[mustinjourney]

I'll be specific: $10. That being said, I don't think I'll see anything beyond that by the time my contract expires (2042), though if the next few percentage increases are larger than normal (there's an argument to be made as to why they would jump) seeing $10+ is entirely possible. At that point, my budget will be less flexible, and the cost of paying MFs would reach near car payment status. Not interested. The latest round of higher MFs, along with the increasingly expensive price per point of the newer resorts, the even higher price per point of some Disney direct sales of older resorts, and the new rules about reselling points bought at Riviera and beyond, have convinced us that our mild case of addonitis is cured.

at 3% increase per year -- BWV will be over $10 within 12 years from now. That is well ahead of 2042.

 

[mustinjourney]

So you think the "death spiral" is inevitable for all the resorts then? Is there a ceiling that the dues could hit or not? What got me thinking was the talk about the dues at Riviera being so high and how the others will follow.

quite the contrary -- my point was that if the rates are raised slowly enough -- the majority of owners will just shrug and pay the additional amount. A 3% raise in fees is not very noticeable -- and if DVC is still "saving" me 50% or more off hotel rooms, I'm not going to rush out and sell my points b/c of a 3% increase.

I don't think new owners will think the costs are high because they are ignorant to the previous costs of ownership. Not to mention, even if you have initial sticker shock -- at some point -- the price just becomes the new normal and you will adjust your expectations. Again -- as long as the costs of DVC ownership make sense vis-a-vis hotel room costs -- then I do not see a mass exodus by the membership.

 

[bwvBound]

So you think the "death spiral" is inevitable for all the resorts then? Is there a ceiling that the dues could hit or not? What got me thinking was the talk about the dues at Riviera being so high and how the others will follow.

I've been through the death spiral with my all-time favorite timeshare property (crashed, sold through BK and now a privately held resort) and have watched similar over on TUG for others. I doubt the individual DVC resorts will enter that cycle ... but such an idea shouldn't be ruled out if DVD/DVC should become greedy to recapture inventory for their own purposes using "any measure available."

 

[SL6827]

I've been through the death spiral with my all-time favorite timeshare property (crashed, sold through BK and now a privately held resort) and have watched similar over on TUG for others. I doubt the individual DVC resorts will enter that cycle ... but such an idea shouldn't be ruled out if DVD/DVC should become greedy to recapture inventory for their own purposes using "any measure available."

Wow. Interesting.

 

[SL6827]

When there's not really any savings anymore. I have to imagine Disney hotels will keep getting more expensive so there will be savings.

But I do believe there is a ceiling in what people will pay for the regular resorts. We all know that the prices are artificially inflated and I just wonder how high those too can become before Disney backs off a bit.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

I'll be specific: $10. That being said, I don't think I'll see anything beyond that by the time my contract expires (2042), though if the next few percentage increases are larger than normal (there's an argument to be made as to why they would jump) seeing $10+ is entirely possible. At that point, my budget will be less flexible, and the cost of paying MFs would reach near car payment status. Not interested. The latest round of higher MFs, along with the increasingly expensive price per point of the newer resorts, the even higher price per point of some Disney direct sales of older resorts, and the new rules about reselling points bought at Riviera and beyond, have convinced us that our mild case of addonitis is cured.

You got me thinking. We also have a 2042 resort (BCV). Our dues have gone from $5.79 in 2014 when we purchased to $6.94 in 2019 - a 3.7% average annual increase. At that same rate they'll hit $10 in 2029 and we'll still have another 11 years beyond 2029 paying $10+ dues ending up somewhere at around $15. Yikes!

 

[SL6827]

When rental rates fall below twice MF.

That entered my mind. When it might be cheaper to rent than the cost of the dues?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

For dues to be too high? If they no longer offer a value of either upsized accommodations or comparable value to booking a room onsite. Selling will be difficult then though although I can't imagine the scenario it would happen and DVC wouldn't be under a microscope of why it costs more to stay in a timeshare with costs paid by owners vs a hotel room that is meant to generate a profit. And by Disney standards a generous profit.

The question for us will be how long will we want to continue to visit Disney. If our current interest changes then that will be the time we sell. And pricing may be a large component of that decision but it won't be the only one.

 

[Bobb_o]

You got me thinking. We also have a 2042 resort (BCV). Our dues have gone from $5.79 in 2014 when we purchased to $6.94 in 2019 - a 3.7% average annual increase. At that same rate they'll hit $10 in 2029 and we'll still have another 11 years beyond 2029 paying $10+ dues ending up somewhere at around $15. Yikes!

To be fair 98% of the increase from 2014-2018 was inflation. Since 1914 the average inflation rate is 3.26% so the increase in dues hasn't been that bad if you think about it that way.