Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

Although now that I’m thinking about it, won’t having a large number of contracts available also lower the price due to the supply being greater? It’s just such an odd occurrence to me.
My guess is that some sellers just wanted some certainty before unloading. Now they have it.
 
Www.dvcresalemarket.com has been loading up new contracts for sale this afternoon. I guess the news about WDW reopening is prompting sellers to come to market.
I checked all the sites I have been following and while the number is high it is about were it was mid week last week

Edit, I checked later and this is a new high since I started tracking at 500% of average

This is the most since the stock market tanked earlier this year which was about the same number in 1 day
 
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Wouldn't it be the other way? Buyers would want some certainty before buying. Why would sellers care? (Honest, curious question.)
I mean I don’t think it was particularly clear until today how many points some people even truly had available to sell.
 


Checking Disney Resales:

Go to Orange County Comptroller's Site Here:
https://www.occompt.com/services/records-search/
Click ACCEPT to accept the disclaimer.

Now you should see the Document Search interface

Enter a Start and End date for your search

Uncheck the box to enable search for specific document types. Choose "Deeds"

Click "Advanced"

In the Legal Remarks field, type "Grand Floridian". Note: you might get some miscellaneous extra stuff using this search. If you want to narrow the search, you can type "TS: VILLAS AT DISNEY S GRAND FLORIDIAN RESORT " in the legal remarks field. I would try both just to make sure you don't miss anything.

This will give you a list of all the Deeds recorded in the period of time you specified above.

Now it gets a little tricky.

Disney Direct Sales will have "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" as the Grantor. Resales will have someone's name, or a husband and wife, or their trust, etc.

Over on the right, you will see where you can click to "View Image". This will enable you to see a specific deed.

You will want to scrutinize the deed to find out the selling price and the number of points. Many title companies will include both of these.

However, some title companies, and Disney, will put in "$10 and other valuable presents" for the sales price, so you have to do some more digging.

If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 % amount of the sales price. So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price (plus or minus a few $).

Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point. For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.

Deeds with Disney Vacation Development as Grantor may not show the number of points, but the price for Direct Sales is generally published by Disney.

If you see a document tax of $0.00, it usually means a gratuitous transfer, such as a transfer within a family, or from a husband and wife to their living trust, etc.

There are other special cases, such as a foreclosures. I can't remember off the top of my head all the nuances of those.
So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not called that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:

Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
497561

And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
497565

I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.
 
So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not called that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:

Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
View attachment 497561

And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
View attachment 497565

I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.
I love data!

And I would be interested in seeing the trends, could you do this for other resorts? say BRV, or is it too time consuming?
 


I love data!

And I would be interested in seeing the trends, could you do this for other resorts? say BRV, or is it too time consuming?
If I do it for any others it would be BRV and AKV, the others I am (or my wife is) interested in, but it was surprisingly time consuming, as I have to look at the paper contracts and retype the data, it's not captured by the county digitally. So no promises, but I promise if I do it, I'll post it!
 
5/27 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 520-540% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

okw3.jpg
 
So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not called that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:

Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
View attachment 497561

And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
View attachment 497565

I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.
Great data!!!

I know there were quite a few under 100 pts in the 80s so when they are recorded we can expect the slide to continue.

OKW is always a little odd becouse the occasional 2057 contract
 
So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not called that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:

Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
View attachment 497561

And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
View attachment 497565

I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.
Well done! As you discovered, to search for Old Key West, you search for DISNEY VACATION CLUB AT WALT DISNEY WORLD RESORT.

This is because OKW was the first DVC, and back then, they didn't know if there would be a 2nd DVC!
 
Theres a few dozen here but they are almost all ridiculously overpriced. You'll probably find better prices shopping around.
I've been following that site for the perfect 150 point VGF contract and their prices seem better than the 7-8 other sides I monitor. Am I missing something?
 
So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not called that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:

Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
View attachment 497561

And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
View attachment 497565

I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.
This is fantastic and you're living up to your "math and business nerd" description of yourself. :) How far back did you go - mid-February 2020?
 
This is fantastic and you're living up to your "math and business nerd" description of yourself. :) How far back did you go - mid-February 2020?
I did contracts posted by the county from 4/1 through 5/26, but the dates I used in my actual analysis were the earliest date on the contract, as I assumed that date was the closest to the actual date the 2 parties agreed on a price; that date was typically about 30 days earlier but it varied quite a bit, hence the dates all the way back into February (I even had a January date but I excluded it from my chart as it stretched it substantially without adding to the story at all)
 
I think the fire sale is over. January is historically a lower priced month, as folks want to sell to before paying another full year's worth of MFs.
Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.
ET :darth:
 
I think the fire sale is over. January is historically a lower priced month, as folks want to sell to before paying another full year's worth of MFs.
Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.
ET :darth:

I think that's incredibly unlikely. There's going to be a huge resurgence in COVID cases in the next few weeks. Plus the enormous economic damage that will take years to unwind. I don't see how prices return to pre-COVID levels in the next 2 years.
 
I think the fire sale is over. January is historically a lower priced month, as folks want to sell to before paying another full year's worth of MFs.
Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.
ET :darth:

The reopenings aren't suddenly solving this massive unemployment issue. We'll see where it shakes out over the next several months.
 
I think that's incredibly unlikely. There's going to be a huge resurgence in COVID cases in the next few weeks. Plus the enormous economic damage that will take years to unwind. I don't see how prices return to pre-COVID levels in the next 2 years.

Not everyone is being effected the same way during this event. All of my friends are still working, mostly at home, but they are all still on full pay. So they haven't been hit economically at all.

Are there a significant number of DVC owners and future DVC buyers that are being hit with financial hardships right now? I've no idea.
 

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