You know it's the End of Days when ... (another resale prices post)

[Cyberc1978]

Just saw a bcv contract with 150 points, asking 140$ pp. the contract is semi stripped.

 

[mustinjourney]

There's also a 250 point contract for $125! But yeah, the 25 point BWV almost seems like it's asking for Disney to ROFR it.

Disney isn't going to ROFR s contract at $150 a point.

Also, that contract had no closing costs. But with all points gone, it's still a horrible deal.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Disney isn't going to ROFR s contract at $150 a point.

Also, that contract had no closing costs. But with all points gone, it's still a horrible deal.

What contract had no closing costs? The $150 BWV 25 pts closing costs add over $20/pt vs direct.

I'm curious about 2 things.

First, what will we see (in a couple months) as far as prices actually paid for these contracts? I did try to make offers on a few and sellers wouldn't budge. Maybe I'm just unlucky.

Second, what will we see in a few years as far as 25 point contracts on the resale market? Maybe it will be more than a few years, but at some point I'd think it will be flooded. Or, maybe not. Maybe people will hold on to their little direct add-ons forever and sell off the rest.

Regardless, today I feel better about my direct purchase. I got the exact number of points I wanted, didn't have to compromise on UY, I was logged in playing with the resort availability tool less than 24 hours after a 10 minute phone call from my guide, and my AP savings will make up for most savings I might have gotten via resale. Sometimes timing is everything and my timing for buying resale was just not good!!

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Just saw a bcv contract with 150 points, asking 140$ pp. the contract is semi stripped.

At least I can understand a little why someone would pay it for BCV. In most cases, you can't just call and buy direct or even get on a waitlist.

 

[Chancery8]

I just bought direct, but am still getting my email alerts for resale (was trying to buy resale first) and this morning there's a 25 point BWV asking $150. Now add $20/pt for higher closing buying resale and at least $10/pt for the missing 2017 points..... $180???

Why would anyone think of asking for that? Will anyone pay it? Why would they?

Well apparently, the answer yes...it's now pending! As is a BCV 50 pt priced at $158
These listing prices are insane!!!

I know there's wiggle room for negotiations, but I mean, how much do you think people are actually negotiating down the price? I can't imagine the sellers going down too much in price - say agreeing to only $100/pt when they're asking for $150+, especially on the first day of it being listed.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Well apparently, the answer yes...it's now pending! As is a BCV 50 pt priced at $158
These listing prices are insane!!!

I know there's wiggle room for negotiations, but I mean, how much do you think people are actually negotiating down the price? I can't imagine the sellers going down too much in price - say agreeing to only $100/pt when they're asking for $150+, especially on the first day of it being listed.

Any offers I attempted to make in the last month were completely rejected.

 

[Chancery8]

Any offers I attempted to make in the last month were completely rejected.

I figured most sellers would be holding out for a full offer or close to it with DVC being a sellers market right now.

 

[Ben E N]

First, what will we see (in a couple months) as far as prices actually paid for these contracts? I did try to make offers on a few and sellers wouldn't budge. Maybe I'm just unlucky.

Second, what will we see in a few years as far as 25 point contracts on the resale market? Maybe it will be more than a few years, but at some point I'd think it will be flooded. Or, maybe not. Maybe people will hold on to their little direct add-ons forever and sell off the rest.

I do not foresee this slowing down any time in the next 3 months. There is no reason to. If you want to sell your contract, you either hold on to it as prices keep rising, or you list it at a high price and wait for people to match. Because there are enough people in the former category, there is less competition driving prices down. As it comes time to pay MFs, then competition may pick up and prices may drop a bit.
I see this rise in price as a reasonable excuse for Disney to raise their asking prices on direct sales of sold out resorts, both because the spread is so tight right now, and to make their new resorts look like a better deal.

This would mean that in the long run, 25 point contracts will be more expensive than they are today, but it will be more in line with the typical market of the time.

 

[kboo]

There's also a 250 point contract for $125! But yeah, the 25 point BWV almost seems like it's asking for Disney to ROFR it.

Disney isn't going to ROFR s contract at $150 a point.

Also, that contract had no closing costs. But with all points gone, it's still a horrible deal.

I must have skipped a few steps in my reasoning AND misspoken (in a meeting) because that made no sense ... I meant, the sellers are in a great position either way, because the higher asking price is already setting offers pretty unreasonably high, *and* a $10 difference in price per point comes out to a total of $250 - so it's really incentivizing someone to make a high offer at the outset or risk ROFR for Disney to turn around and sell a small add on to a BWV resale buyer. Or something.

 

[mustinjourney]

At least I can understand a little why someone would pay it for BCV. In most cases, you can't just call and buy direct or even get on a waitlist.

yeah -- it's almost like scalping tickets.

 

[minorthr]

Just saw a boardwalk 50 point at $150 a point, by the time you add closing fees you are at $162.60 a point

 

[Matty B13]

Just saw a boardwalk 50 point at $150 a point, by the time you add closing fees you are at $162.60 a point

Buy direct at that price!

 

[glamdring269]

Similar stories for me recently. Most recent was a stripped 50pt BWV and couldn’t close for a couple of months. Lowest they would drop is $145/pt.

Why would anyone pay that resale?

 

[Littlelulu01]

I think the 25 point contracts go for so much more because, for now anyway, a new dvc owner can get in for only 25 points. Direct you have to purchase more than this. Granted 25 points typically doesn't get you much but it's an inexpensive way to take transfer points on years someone wanted big vacations and then not really have much mf's for years they don't want to do Disney.

All time best dvc bargain is an AKV 25 point contract. It gets you 5 nights every other year in a value studio in adventure, choice and dream season. Granted value rooms are hard to get, but if flexible enough with dates they can certainly be had. Even at almost direct price, a 25 point AKV contract pays for itself in a little over the first stay. The location of value rooms in Jambo house are excellent and half have savanna views. A week every three years is also feasible with 25 points AKV. They just rarely come up for resale and when they do they are sold on the first day regardless of how stripped and what price.

I would give a good guess the 25 point contract add on loophole will somehow be the next restriction. I mean, even at insane price, it's still a really great way to get into dvc for the same cost as a typical wdw vacation and also the reason dvc doesn't sell 25 direct to new owners. I see that CCV is only available add on at 50 points minimum. I think that's the first step they've taken. Would not be surprised if pretty soon 50 add on is across all resorts.

 

[Ben E N]

I just noticed that the 325 point BLT contract, with no points coming until 2018, is sale pending. It's asking price was $140 a point and was only on the market for about a week, so I doubt they came down too much on asking price.
That's an increase of like $30/pt. since this summer. Direct sale prices keep looking more and more appealing...

 

[ScubaCat]

All this analysis assumes that DVD has large chunks of points readily available at BWV and BCV, which just isn't the case most of the time. It's all based on supply and demand.

That said, a lot more contracts come up at the end of the year when MFs are due. So, that extra competition may soften the market slightly. But still, a stronger economy and higher direct pricing coupled with low availability means prices are likely to remain mostly higher at these older, highly popular properties.

 

[Matty B13]

All this analysis assumes that DVD has large chunks of points readily available at BWV and BCV, which just isn't the case most of the time. It's all based on supply and demand.

That said, a lot more contracts come up at the end of the year when MFs are due. So, that extra competition may soften the market slightly. But still, a stronger economy and higher direct pricing coupled with low availability means prices are likely to remain mostly higher at these older, highly popular properties.

Especially since Disney is charging extra for 2+ adults in a room in 2018...... I can see DVC rentals going to $20/ point.

 

[jodifla]

Especially since Disney is charging extra for 2+ adults in a room in 2018...... I can see DVC rentals going to $20/ point.

Wow...is this new?

 

[Matty B13]

Wow...is this new?

Quote from another thread:

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but I booked a room only reservation for January this morning and found out that the extra adult fee for a third or fourth adult (18 and older) at Disney resort rooms (does not apply to villas or suites) is increasing for 2018.

Value resorts - $15 (was $10)
Moderate resorts - $25 (was $15)
Deluxe resorts - $35 (was $25)

Not a new charge, but they just increased it at every level (value, moderate, deluxe) resort at WDW. Plus there is no hotel tax on a DVC stay.

DVC is looking better and better.

 

[kboo]

Are these charges per night??