You know it's the End of Days when ... (another resale prices post)

[Matty B13]

That BCV 200 pt contract for $120 hasn’t been moving either ... (feeling hopeful)

Your going to be in the 500 point club soon!

 

[kboo]

Your going to be in the 500 point club soon!

Oh no I'm not! Todays email had a 150+ points at BCV for $148 and BWV for $125, and BLT for $145.

 

[Ben E N]

Oh no I'm not! Todays email had a 150+ points at BCV for $148 and BWV for $125, and BLT for $145.

First the funny part, there are two loaded 100 point BLT contracts asking $155/pt.
Next, it looks like prices may be settling down a bit. I am seeing more and more contracts in the $130's. Hopefully the fact that they are not mostly rising in price means that a dip will be coming soon...

 

[cmarsh31]

All of you experts who have been watching resales for years, I have a question... In general, although I know it's hard to even guess now bc prices are so much higher, how long does it take for over-the-top contracts to drop? Do they just sit until someone pays? Do the brokerage companies seem to push after a few months?

The availability of what I want is out there, but the prices are too close to direct to even consider. No one is interested in taking offers - every price is 'full asking price only" or they won't consider more than $2/pt less (we're talking 50-75 pt contracts so minimal $). When do I just throw in the towel and call Disney?

 

[Matty B13]

All of you experts who have been watching resales for years, I have a question... In general, although I know it's hard to even guess now bc prices are so much higher, how long does it take for over-the-top contracts to drop? Do they just sit until someone pays? Do the brokerage companies seem to push after a few months?

The availability of what I want is out there, but the prices are too close to direct to even consider. No one is interested in taking offers - every price is 'full asking price only" or they won't consider more than $2/pt less (we're talking 50-75 pt contracts so minimal $). When do I just throw in the towel and call Disney?

Depends on your time-frame, and for 50-75 points depending on the resort your looking out, direct vs. resale isn't going to save you a ton of money. But you can always make an offer, we have been shut down on a few contracts with no counter offer, but it's all just playing the game.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

All of you experts who have been watching resales for years, I have a question... In general, although I know it's hard to even guess now bc prices are so much higher, how long does it take for over-the-top contracts to drop? Do they just sit until someone pays? Do the brokerage companies seem to push after a few months?

The availability of what I want is out there, but the prices are too close to direct to even consider. No one is interested in taking offers - every price is 'full asking price only" or they won't consider more than $2/pt less (we're talking 50-75 pt contracts so minimal $). When do I just throw in the towel and call Disney?

Today. (Only 1/2 kidding)

What is an over the top contract mean to you?

Some would say if it's still saving them a few bucks vs direct, it's a good price.
Heck, I remember one poster explaining how a 25 pt contract (since they can't buy 25 direct as a new buyer) is worth paying OVER direct price per point.
Some are just wanting pricing similar to a few months ago and think anything more is "a bad deal".

Only time will tell how far the rise or drop. So, how much is it worth to you right now? Stop comparing to what someone else paid or what prices were 3 months ago, 6 months ago, 1 year ago. Decide what it's worth to you.

Do you want 50 points? Do you want 75? Or do you really want exactly 62 but will take 50 or 75 and make it work because it's what's out there to be had? That (to me) is one of the things that tipped the scales to direct for me. I was going to get to buy exactly what I wanted and be done with it.

 

[Gryhndmom]

All of you experts who have been watching resales for years, I have a question... In general, although I know it's hard to even guess now bc prices are so much higher, how long does it take for over-the-top contracts to drop? Do they just sit until someone pays? Do the brokerage companies seem to push after a few months?

The availability of what I want is out there, but the prices are too close to direct to even consider. No one is interested in taking offers - every price is 'full asking price only" or they won't consider more than $2/pt less (we're talking 50-75 pt contracts so minimal $). When do I just throw in the towel and call Disney?

IMO...there could be many factors involved in the higher prices...(1) sellers trying to take advantage of a hot resale market and don't want to go lower (2) sellers are financing so the price per point is higher to cover the interest paid on financing (3) monorail resorts are generally higher priced than other resorts . If you are buying a fairly good number of points your savings can be greater resale than buying direct (say BLT is 185 direct and 145 resale for 100 points you would pay 18500 direct and 14500 resale; 4000 difference is a big savings I think)

Our first contract was direct and next two resale as we saved significant money. First two contracts are grandfathered (for being able to get discounts) and the last one after they changed the benefits available to resale.

 

[cmarsh31]

Today. (Only 1/2 kidding)

What is an over the top contract mean to you?

Some would say if it's still saving them a few bucks vs direct, it's a good price.
Heck, I remember one poster explaining how a 25 pt contract (since they can't buy 25 direct as a new buyer) is worth paying OVER direct price per point.
Some are just wanting pricing similar to a few months ago and think anything more is "a bad deal".

Only time will tell how far the rise or drop. So, how much is it worth to you right now? Stop comparing to what someone else paid or what prices were 3 months ago, 6 months ago, 1 year ago. Decide what it's worth to you.

Do you want 50 points? Do you want 75? Or do you really want exactly 62 but will take 50 or 75 and make it work because it's what's out there to be had? That (to me) is one of the things that tipped the scales to direct for me. I was going to get to buy exactly what I wanted and be done with it.

Actually - today is correct! Just found a very reasonable AK contract, offer in, countered & accepted, paperwork signed!

Over-the-top were the ones that are literally $70 less than direct after closing costs and no points until 2019... or the couple that were actually more expensive than paying direct! All I wanted was an SSR or OKW for less than $100/point. Even $98 per point was fine. Paying a bit more (hopefully) for AK, but fully loaded... as long as I don't lose it now to ROFR.

Thank you everyone who responded!! I really appreciate all the help for newbies here.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Actually - today is correct! Just found a very reasonable AK contract, offer in, countered & accepted, paperwork signed!

Over-the-top were the ones that are literally $70 less than direct after closing costs and no points until 2019... or the couple that were actually more expensive than paying direct! All I wanted was an SSR or OKW for less than $100/point. Even $98 per point was fine. Paying a bit more (hopefully) for AK, but fully loaded... as long as I don't lose it now to ROFR.

Thank you everyone who responded!! I really appreciate all the help for newbies here.

Congrats!

 

[cmarsh31]

Congrats!

I wasn't even looking for a bargain, just not willing to pay $115/point for SSR with no points until 2019! I have been very good at not looking at even what contracts were selling for 6 months ago, because that wasn't the right time for us. All I've done is compare resale to direct and factored in the cost to rent the points we'd need for our planned 2019 trip.

 

[kboo]

Now there is a BCV 400 point contract asking $140 per point.

 

[iheartglaciers]

Now there is a BCV 400 point contract asking $140 per point.

I saw that... just when I thought prices were stabilizing!! I might have to give up on BCV...

 

[Ben E N]

I saw that... just when I thought prices were stabilizing!! I might have to give up on BCV...

Or just talk to this poster!

Yes, for my situation, I should have passed on DVC. I don't care about kitchens or laundry and for other reasons I didn't consider, but should have, I'm now selling my BCV....any takers?

 

[ScubaCat]

I'll sell somebody one of my BCV contracts..... For one hundred BILLION dollars! Muahahhahahahahaha

Gotta remember that at the older resorts, despite the sooner expiration, you generally need less points per night. So that'll boost the price a little since each point is worth a bit more in terms of that ratio.

 

[TexasChick123]

I'll sell somebody one of my BCV contracts..... For one hundred BILLION dollars! Muahahhahahahahaha

Gotta remember that at the older resorts, despite the sooner expiration, you generally need less points per night. So that'll boost the price a little since each point is worth a bit more in terms of that ratio.

While it is true that your points go farther because you need less, you have the lease on them for a shorter period because of the impending expiration date (DVC is just a lease after all). I've done the analysis many times, and those just don't make financial sense today with the high buy-in prices compared to other properties even for resale. However, I think many buy at the older properties because that's where they want to stay and aren't so concerned about the numbers. It is a vacation lease after all and not a bond or CD. Haha. Also, it's still cheaper than renting through Disney or renting points from an owner. To each his own!

 

[ScubaCat]

many buy at the older properties because that's what they want to stay and aren't so concerned about the numbers.

That's about it right there. Really, the most fiscally responsible choice is to not buy DVC at all, so by that measure, we're all getting a bad deal. We stay at BCV just about every time and spend about half of each day at SAB, so price wasn't a big factor in the decision.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

While it is true that your points go farther because you need less, you have the lease on them for a shorter period because of the impending expiration date (DVC is just a lease after all). I've done the analysis many times, and those just don't make financial sense today with the high buy-in prices compared to other properties even for resale. However, I think many buy at the older properties because that's where they want to stay and aren't so concerned about the numbers. It is a vacation lease after all and not a bond or CD. Haha. Also, it's still cheaper than renting through Disney or renting points from an owner. To each his own!

The thing is that they can be analyzed in many different ways. One of many things I did was figure out how many points I would need for my "typical" trips and then make a spreadsheet of the per trip cost. This can vary from person to person. I used current direct pricing and included current dues. I didn't include current sales incentives because I'm not buying that many points. I did count on getting standard studios across the board, because I'm assuming I'm getting 11 month booking advantage, and I personally have the flexibility to make sure I get them. To me, that's what you're buying....the booking advantage.

FWIW, the per trip costs in order from lowest to highest were as follows:

OKW (E)*
SSR
AKV
BWV
BLT
CCV
PVB
VGF
BCV
BRV

I did play around with the list using some resale numbers, but it's hard to know what to use as a resale cost per point. It varies day to day it seems and certainly by contract size. Even with my best guess resale and average sale prices listed from resale site, no resort changed in order more than 1 spot up or down.

So, yes, BCV and BRV are among the most costly because of their end date, but BWV was not.

BWV was also the first on the list with hard to get accommodations at 7 months.

Next in line was BLT (and it was only a couple of dollar difference) with a much later end date but even harder to get standard accommodations.

CCV would move to cheaper than BWV if the dues drop to under $6 which I thought I read was a possibility.

Then I sorted by buy in price and things got interesting....

OKW (E)*
BWV
SSR
AKV
(Still the least expensive 4)

BCV/BRV
CCV
BLT
PVB
VGF

So, if trying to stick to a cash budget, BCV and BRV may make sense to some. I'm not about to run the numbers (and there's again so many variables) but it's possible if (for example) you like BCV and PVB equally, but are able to buy BCV cash while needing to finance PVB, maybe BCV suddenly does cost less per trip (my first list).

And again using best guess / resale site avg sale price info for resale, nothing changed position that much.

*Even recalculating with a 2042 end date for OKW, it remained in the top 4 least expensive on both lists. I think this is key info on the relationship of end date vs point requirements. Obviously, you get the extended contract direct, but I was just curious as to how it would change the comparison if it was a 2042 end date.

But I'd buy where I want to stay / where I need home booking priority over "overall best deal" regardless.

 

[glamdring269]

Just saw this one get posted:

Poly - Dec UY
50 pts.
0/16 0/17 50/18 50/19 50/20
$159/pt!!

Wow.

 

[minorthr]

Just saw this one get posted:

Poly - Dec UY
50 pts.
0/16 0/17 50/18 50/19 50/20
$159/pt!!

Wow.

With closing costs thats around $173 a point

 

[suebeelin]

Wow. BLT is at $120-125 now or more? Tempted to sell but I bought it only 2-3 years ago!!

I'm never selling our BWV tho... unless it goes up to $200pp!!