Upcomming announcement speculation thread

[gkrykewy]

When the economy crashed, the company that used to buy the mortgages from Disney stopped doing business with them.
I'm not sure if things have changed, but The Timeshare Store also had no one interested in financing timeshares for awhile.

I suspect that's part of the reason for the high interest rate.

No - Disney's rate was 10+% even at the peak of the credit bubble (2006/07).

Is it just me, or do you have to be crazy not to buy resale? If you do not now what I mean click on the TIMESHARE STORE logo at the top of the screen and scroll through their listings.

Disney can often be a better deal after considering closing costs, particularly for smaller contracts. Factoring in the ability to match your use year, get your points instantly, and often get the prior year's points without having to pay maintenance fees on them, Direct can actually be a no-brainer.

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

So, I'm not sure if this was directed to me? But, we are looking for a 80 point add on at VGC and I a haven't seen to many of these resale. It also does not appear to be an advantage to buy resale vs. direct for VGC with a June UY.

I do know how to scroll through the resale website

I meant no offense. The newer resorts are (BLT, VGC) not readily available on the resale market. I am refering to Disney asking $112 for resorts like BWV and BCV that have many resale listings in the $70-$80 range. If you are looking for a particular UY and number of points you may not have a choice other than buying direct from DVC. The sarcasm was directed at another poster. I thought it was obvious. Sorry.

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

No - Disney's rate was 10+% even at the peak of the credit bubble (2006/07).

"Build it and they will come", charge it and they will pay. DVC mentality (it seems to work).

 

[nunzia]

Is it just me, or do you have to be crazy not to buy resale? If you do not now what I mean click on the TIMESHARE STORE logo at the top of the screen and scroll through their listings.

I bought resale for my first contract to get in the system. I paid closing costs and had to worry about ROFR. I bought from Disney for my VGC points..quick, no closing costs and since the resort is new you couldn't find it on resale. A few are showing up now, but they are either wrong use year/too many points and I would pay closing costs. Plus, at this time, resales on VGC seem to cost more than direct from Disney. It makses sense to buy from Disney for my add on. There are many many cases where resale is the best way to go, but there are also many cases where direct from Disney is.

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

Disney has a current incentive caled "magical beginings". Under the plan new purchasers can sell/rent Disney their first years points for $5 each. Magical for who?

 

[tammymacb]

For those debating from Disney VS resale, I can tell you, if you wait for the right contract to come along ( with the exception of BLT and GCV ) it's silly to buy from Disney.

I recently contacted my guide about a 3rd add on at HHI. I was told that the price had dropped to $80 per point. No closing costs.

It took a while to find the "right" resale contract but I did. I got my UY, the number of points I wanted with all 09 banked all 10 coming AND found out when the paperwork was sent in there were also some forgotten 08 points. The seller paid closing and I paid 10 MFs.

I got 150 points resale for about the same as I would have paid for 100 points from Disney.

I recently sold a 50 point BWV contract for $83 per point. With $400 added on in closing costs, the buyer paid $4550. At $106 from Disney, with no closing costs you'll pay $5300. At $116 $5800. I'm sorry, but there are few instances ( for me ) that waiting a few months for finding the right resale/ROFR isn't worth more than $1000.

But, that's me.

 

[JenSop]

Yikes! So I read 13 pages of posts and couldn't read anymore!

My guesses:
-New incentives for bigger sales
-Hawaii resort announcement
-price increase

My wishlist:
-incentives on SMALL add-ons (25 points)
-better discounts (ie: park tickets)
-go back to old reservation system (I haven't walked a reservation yet, but just may do that in 2012 when I want a GV at AKV. With the old system, I would have just called day-by-day.)
-fast passes for DVC! (never gonna happen, but how cool would that be!)

 

[stopher1]

So I just got off the phone with my guide, (who in the various years we've dealt with one another tends to be a very good actress playing coy when I ask very direct, pointed questions about what I read in various online sources, including here - especially when she doesn't want to answer me) and she said, in her roundabout way, that she hasn't heard anything about BCV or BWV prices going up anytime soon, but she'd certainly ask around and see if she could find anything out for me. (Yeah, whatever).

I then asked her a variety of other questions, including about VGC and what the current incentives are there since she knows that we want more points there. The fun part was when (Nunzia and any others who want additional VGC points, this is for you) - she then dropped her voice to a barely audible whisper and continued to tell me that there will be a new round of incentives coming out late next week (confirming a pp's post about new incentives later on, not this Sunday) that will include better discounts than anything they currently offer on VGC to try and get that one closer to selling out. She talked about the meeting a couple of days ago and said that the managers running that meeting indicated VGC was more than 65% sold, and they want to move it to the finish line.

Obviously only time will tell, and guides are salespeople - but I do hope what she whispered to me is true, as we'd love to get some more points there once again.

 

[dizfan]

I then asked her a variety of other questions, including about VGC and what the current incentives are there since she knows that we want more points there. The fun part was when (Nunzia and any others who want additional VGC points, this is for you) - she then dropped her voice to a barely audible whisper and continued to tell me that there will be a new round of incentives coming out late next week (confirming a pp's post about new incentives later on, not this Sunday) that will include better discounts than anything they currently offer on VGC to try and get that one closer to selling out. She talked about the meeting a couple of days ago and said that the managers running that meeting indicated VGC was more than 65% sold, and they want to move it to the finish line.

Obviously only time will tell, and guides are salespeople - but I do hope what she whispered to me is true, as we'd love to get some more points there once again.

If VGC is indeed 65% sold out, that would be the closest to sold out of the 4 resorts being actively sold.

It would make sense for Disney to want VGC as close to sold out as possible before the start selling Aulani (likely this fall). Fewer properties to sell makes it easier for the guides.

 

[dis-happy]

If VGC is indeed 65% sold out, that would be the closest to sold out of the 4 resorts being actively sold.

It would make sense for Disney to want VGC as close to sold out as possible before the start selling Aulani (likely this fall). Fewer properties to sell makes it easier for the guides.

They had originally expected it to be sold out by the time it opened....and now it's only a little more than half sold. Wow. I bet they'll be bumping up the incentives.

 

[stopher1]

If VGC is indeed 65% sold out, that would be the closest to sold out of the 4 resorts being actively sold.

It would make sense for Disney to want VGC as close to sold out as possible before the start selling Aulani (likely this fall). Fewer properties to sell makes it easier for the guides.

I have no way to know what % has been sold, but I agree with you, I think it will make selling Aulani more possible and easier all around once they have one less active resort in the mis.

 

[duck_widow]

I spoke with our guide again tonight and now she said that they had a meeting today. She confirmed (what we have all heard) that the prices of the 4 sold out resorts will definately go up on Sunday. She also said that any "new incentives" will not be released on Sunday but most likely somewhere between March 13-17. So let the waiting begin.

Interesting, I have my contract on hold while I wait for the 'big announcement'. I emailed my guide today to make sure I'm ok to wait and he said he'd get back to me on 3/14, which is in line with your dates about. Hmm.

 

[dizfan]

No - Disney's rate was 10+% even at the peak of the credit bubble (2006/07).

What was rate that TTS mortgages were going for at the time?

If it was more than Disney's, it's more a sign that timeshares typicallly have high rates.
If it was less than Disney's, than there is a valid argument that Disney's rate is high.

Here's a link to a post Jamie from TTS made back in October. In the post, there is another lender who offers for 12.9%.
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2312076

 

[duck_widow]

Interesting, I have my contract on hold while I wait for the 'big announcement'. I emailed my guide today to make sure I'm ok to wait and he said he'd get back to me on 3/14, which is in line with your dates about. Hmm.

My contract is for VCG by the way. My papers are signed and received. Better incentives would be great!!! Waiting and hoping...

 

[pinnocchiosdad]

What was rate that TTS mortgages were going for at the time?

If it was more than Disney's, it's more a sign that timeshares typicallly have high rates.
If it was less than Disney's, than there is a valid argument that Disney's rate is high.

Here's a link to a post Jamie from TTS made back in October. In the post, there is another lender who offers for 12.9%.
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2312076

TTS does not offer financing.

 

[dizfan]

TTS does not offer financing.

They themselves do not, but they did have a company that would finance some contracts. Based on Jamie's post that I linked to, TTS did find another company to offer financing in October 2009. That company's rates are higher than Disney's rates.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

They had originally expected it to be sold out by the time it opened....and now it's only a little more than half sold. Wow. I bet they'll be bumping up the incentives.

I think it was us here on the Disboards that expected it to sell out that quickly, not DVC.

MG

 

[tjkraz]

They had originally expected it to be sold out by the time it opened....and now it's only a little more than half sold. Wow. I bet they'll be bumping up the incentives.

No, they didn't. Many DIS members speculated that it would sell out quickly and some Guides may have floated the idea based upon their own speculation.

DVC itself did not expect the resort to sell out within a couple of months. In fact they actually had concerns over how well DVC would be accepted out west as evidenced by the fact that they only built 50 villas. The Disneyland guest demographic is very different from WDW. Even if they had the land, Disneyland could never support thousands of DVC guest rooms the way that Walt Disney World does.

Additionally, I really don't understand why there is this perception that DVC should (or even would) slash prices just because they have inventory available. DVC has ONE CHANCE in fifty years to sell each of these resorts. Much better to maximize revenue from each property rather than to give them away at bargain basement prices...even if the trade-off is a slightly slower sales pace.

 

[corpcomp]

DVC has ONE CHANCE in fifty years to sell each of these resorts. Much better to maximize revenue from each property rather than to give them away at bargain basement prices...even if the trade-off is a slightly slower sales pace.

Correction, DVC has one chance to sell the resorts with profit as a startup - they then ROFR whatever they deem appropriate and resell at another profit, in this case about $30 a point for BCV based on what they have been buying back.

Raising prices is financially smart to get more spread in the resales.

It could be a lot worse. You could buy Vistana or any other non supported timeshare and lose 75% of your value when you try and sell.

 

[dis-happy]

No, they didn't. Many DIS members speculated that it would sell out quickly and some Guides may have floated the idea based upon their own speculation.

DVC itself did not expect the resort to sell out within a couple of months. In fact they actually had concerns over how well DVC would be accepted out west as evidenced by the fact that they only built 50 villas. The Disneyland guest demographic is very different from WDW. Even if they had the land, Disneyland could never support thousands of DVC guest rooms the way that Walt Disney World does.

Additionally, I really don't understand why there is this perception that DVC should (or even would) slash prices just because they have inventory available. DVC has ONE CHANCE in fifty years to sell each of these resorts. Much better to maximize revenue from each property rather than to give them away at bargain basement prices...even if the trade-off is a slightly slower sales pace.

I see what you're saying. However, they initially had limits on the number of points you could buy, as well as who and when people could buy at the outset. This says to me they expected a huge demand and were trying to spread out the sales. It didn't take long before they lifted all that, I assume in response to lower demand than expected. Honestly, I think they vastly underestimated the state of the CA economy.

The rest of my info (taken with a grain of salt of course) came from a chatty DVC salesman late at night...he was bored and we were talking. BLT was just opening up and I mentioned something about GCV and that's when he made several comments about how sales had not gone as expected and that they had fully expected a sell-out of GCV by then. Since the slant is usually positive by those in DVC, I assume it was truthful statement from his viewpoint (although possibly not fully informed).

They need sales to generate the money (cash plus loan qualifications) for Hawaii. I assume that much of the sales staff out west will be pushing Hawaii once GCV is sold out as well. "Only" 50 villas says to me they wanted it sold out quickly and to be done with it since other projects were coming out. I do agree though that selling DL to Californians is a vastly different undertaking, even as other timeshares in general have done well in CA (spoken as someone who grew in So. Cal.).