Watching the tropics... again (aka Irma)

[Tonyz]

FYI:

The latest models from the two most used trackers both show the storm missing Florida completely.

It can change tomorrow but for now this is very good news!

 

[Patrick G.]

So what would be the absolute soonest I would notice any sort of negative weather impact at all associated with Irma on my Sept 4-11 WDW vacation next week?

 

[SaintsManiac]

So we just stop ever evacuating because of Rita? There were other factors there, one being Katrina. People have died in this storm because of no evacuation.

As for NOLA, one evacuation route goes almost by my front door. I have family and friends who lived there during that time. So no, I personally wasn't there but close.

A mandatory evacuation means "leave or you're on your own." A huge amount of people left for Katrina, but there were those who literally could not. They had no way and no where to go.

Not sure where your front door is, but my back door was across from where the 17th Street Canal levee broke. I almost stayed. The only reason I left was because I had to get my mother to where she could have her dialysis treatment.

Not everyone wants to be forced from their homes. We had not had a significant storm in NOLA in decades. The official evacuation order came too late I think, but many people had already started leaving by that point. I was en route to Baton Rouge when I heard it on the radio.

 

[Klayfish]

So what would be the absolute soonest I would notice any sort of negative weather impact at all associated with Irma on my Sept 4-11 WDW vacation next week?

When it starts raining.

Who knows...far too early to say. Nobody knows for sure where it will go, it's SO far out still. From what I saw on the weather channel this morning, it's very roughly about a week out from being in the general vicinity of where the US is, but that's very much subject to change.

 

[ucfknight]

So what would be the absolute soonest I would notice any sort of negative weather impact at all associated with Irma on my Sept 4-11 WDW vacation next week?

Current computer models respected by hurricane experts have Irma even with Orlando on the 9th, 10th, or 11th, but hundreds of miles away out in the Atlantic Ocean, heading North, with no ill effects on Florida at all. We're still talking 10 days out and things can and do change.

 

[Tonyz]

So what would be the absolute soonest I would notice any sort of negative weather impact at all associated with Irma on my Sept 4-11 WDW vacation next week?

Right now... you'll be fine. Maybe a little more rain on the 10th.

 

[luvsJack]

A mandatory evacuation means "leave or you're on your own." A huge amount of people left for Katrina, but there were those who literally could not. They had no way and no where to go.

Not sure where your front door is, but my back door was across from where the 17th Street Canal levee broke. I almost stayed. The only reason I left was because I had to get my mother to where she could have her dialysis treatment.

Not everyone wants to be forced from their homes. We had not had a significant storm in NOLA in decades. The official evacuation order came too late I think, but many people had already started leaving by that point. I was en route to Baton Rouge when I heard it on the radio.

I am well aware what it means. And I realize not everyone wants to be forced from their homes. A great many people stayed on the MS gulf coast for that reason. But a great many of people in NOLA were "on their own" without a mandatory evacuation. Shelters were opened everywhere. There were places to go. Where did they go after the storm?

 

[SaintsManiac]

I am well aware what it means. And I realize not everyone wants to be forced from their homes. A great many people stayed on the MS gulf coast for that reason. But a great many of people in NOLA were "on their own" without a mandatory evacuation. Shelters were opened everywhere. There were places to go. Where did they go after the storm?

I honestly don't understand your question.

 

[yulilin3]

I have been "closely monitoring" (see what I did there ) this thread, a couple of things
1. Please let's try and bring back the discussion on the storms that are maybe/probably/headed to Florida, currently. Lets stop discussion on past events that do not have anything to do with WDW or planning a trip to WDW, just to keep things on course
2. For those asking what to expect during any type of storms I think this has been mentioned time and time again. WE DO NOT KNOW. Storms are completely unpredictable and even the best models will have inaccurate results. The track changes all the time, this is why they have track updates every 6 hours.
3. I believe the intent of the OP was and is good, at this point just be aware that there are storms out there that MIGHT impact your trip, this is true for the entire hurricane season visitors (June through November)
4. If you are at WDW when a big storm hits listen to CM for instructions, be it in the parks or at your resort. Safety is the number one priority at WDW and if management feels there is need to close things up they will
So again, please lets try and concentrate the discussion on storms at WDW, thank you

 

[Maggie'sMom]

Current computer models respected by hurricane experts have Irma even with Orlando on the 9th, 10th, or 11th, but hundreds of miles away out in the Atlantic Ocean, heading North, with no ill effects on Florida at all. We're still talking 10 days out and things can and do change.

What site are you looking at for these models? I've been looking for a good site which has longer range projections and most of what I've looked at are only estimating through Tuesday or Wednesday.

And yes, I know that the longer range projections are subject to more variability and what is projected now could be vastly different from the ultimate path this storm takes. I work in a profession which uses statistics to make long range estimates and am well aware of how early estimates can be very wrong.

 

[ucfknight]

What site are you looking at for these models? I've been looking for a good site which has longer range projections and most of what I've looked at are only estimating through Tuesday or Wednesday.

And yes, I know that the longer range projections are subject to more variability and what is projected now could be vastly different from the ultimate path this storm takes. I work in a profession which uses statistics to make long range estimates and am well aware of how early estimates can be very wrong.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana..._mslp&runtime=2017090100&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

That link will take you directly to the day 10 ECMWF (one of the most highly regarded models for longer range Atlantic hurricane forecasting). You can pick a different time you want to look at on the right, or click the Play button to see it in motion. From the Global models this site has you can look at the ECMWF up to 10 days out and GFS up to 16 days.

 

[Jasten]

We finally are taking a vacation for the first time in 6 years, arriving on the 8th. I have the worst luck with these things. Every-time we go on vacation we get a cold (which coincidentally my DD is now fighting one off) or something will happen. So I would just like to personally apologize to everyone in advance! I did pick up travel insurance though! However,with the amount of planning that it takes to get a good Disney trip and dining reservations, id rather risk it even if it were coming close to FL. Lets just hope it forces me to have to stay an extra week!

 

[Maggie'sMom]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana..._mslp&runtime=2017090100&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

That link will take you directly to the day 10 ECMWF (one of the most highly regarded models for longer range Atlantic hurricane forecasting). You can pick a different time you want to look at on the right, or click the Play button to see it in motion. From the Global models this site has you can look at the ECMWF up to 10 days out and GFS up to 16 days.

Very cool! Thanks!

 

[Lehuaann]

People who worry about the weather more than a few days out really shouldn't book trips in September or October. It's just going to mean a lot of unnecessary stress.

They shouldn't book trips in August, either. The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs June-November; peak is August-October. August and September knocks October out when it comes to the 10 most costliest.

That's why you purchase trip insurance and/or take extra precautions. When we arrived last October, Matthew was still aways out, then made landfall 6-7 days after. We made sure that tank was on full beforehand.

 

[otten]

So what would be the absolute soonest I would notice any sort of negative weather impact at all associated with Irma on my Sept 4-11 WDW vacation next week?

Last year during Matthew, the day we left for our trip (Oct 4) the path was getting worse. By the 5th most were saying there would be a closure but nothing was official until around 11 on October 6th, the day the parks closed early.

As I said up thread. There's no point worrying about it. Disney World knows what they're doing as far as hurricanes go so you will be safe (and a closure is actually a really rare event) and otherwise you just have to roll with the punches.

 

[Patrick G.]

Thanks. I'm not worried about safety at this point, but rather rainy/windy weather.

 

[mesaboy2]

Thanks. I'm not worried about safety at this point, but rather rainy/windy weather.

That could happen at any time and with little warning, especially in summer, and have nothing to do with hurricanes.

 

[Patrick G.]

I understand. I was asking if Irma would increase the likelihood of rainy/windy weather, and if so, how soon.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

It's still too far out for anyone to have any idea where/if Irma will make US landfall. Let alone if it will have any weather impact. Lots of social media accounts and media outlets are using scare tactics, fear mongering and leveraging the tragedy of Hurricane Harvey which is resulting in unnecessary panic. Right now, all we know is that Irma is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and *might* impact the Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Caribbean mid-next week.

 

[yulilin3]

a

I understand. I was asking if Irma would increase the likelihood of rainy/windy weather, and if so, how soon.

again this is a "no one knows until it is way closer" situation
We have had (here in Orlando) storms that as they come close actually pull all the moisture away from us and give us dry weather and storms that dump a lot of water for long periods of time.