$150. Resale restriction is overstated. You always hear buy where you want to own. Many people on this board have not seen the rooms at the preview center in person. I bet if they did, even though the resort is not finished yet, some opinionS would change. Skyliner, restaurants, amenities, 50 year life span, 5 different room types (with studios sleeping 5). There will be plenty of people that will want to own here.
Riviera Resale price will have to deal with the Restriction. It is a disadvantage, just like short contract length is a disadvantage at BC and Boardwalk. Yet, the price of those is doing quite well. Why? Because PEOPLE WANT TO STAY THERE. Well, resale buyers will want to stay at Riviera. The price of BC and Boardwalk is a bit lower than it would be if the contracts were longer, but it is still higher than many other resale properties.
Logically, you would expect the same thing from Riviera. It is a disadvantage, but nothing that the resort can't overcome because people will WANT to stay there. Though I hope for less, realistically, being a new property with a 50 year contract, AND being a premium resort that people will WANT, I think it won't matter that much.
Think of it this way. If resale purchasers at Grand Floridian or Grand Californian could only stay there, then would it drop their price very much? Riviera will be in a similar range, possibly.
i also expect Riviera Resale to be quite popular among owners who already have other properties. Because they will already have other built in options.
Now, will the same thing apply to Reflections in the future? I have my doubts about that.
$150. Resale restriction is overstated. You always hear buy where you want to own. Many people on this board have not seen the rooms at the preview center in person. I bet if they did, even though the resort is not finished yet, some opinionS would change. Skyliner, restaurants, amenities, 50 year life span, 5 different room types (with studios sleeping 5). There will be plenty of people that will want to own here.
I think Riviera is almost always going to be one of the hardest to book, both for the Riviera Owners, and the Non-Owners.
Why?
Because of the restrictions. Let's say that 5 years from now it is sold out. Let's assume that people are starting to sell it and resale purchasers are coming into it. Let's assume that 3% per year is resold. This is not unusual compared to other resorts, and is probably just on the low end. So, in just about 3 years 10% and then at 7 years 20% of the owners will be Resale Owners.
Now, the resale owners can go nowhere else. Riviera will be in demand, so they will know that if they don't make a reservation before the 7 month window, they get nothing. So, they will either reserve, or they will rent out the points and reserve for someone else. Either way, the points get used, and the reservations will be made. Now, what about the Direct owners? Probably at least 80% to 90% will also be scheduling at Riviera. Why? Because Riviera will be a Deluxe resort, very desirable, and they will have purchased it precisely to stay there. So, there will be an 'arms race' (or maybe we should call it a 'Walking Contest') between the Resale Owners and the Direct Owners. An unusually high number of people will be booking close to the 11 month window. The situation with the Tower Studios will be similar to the Value and Kilimanjaro Club Studios at Jambo House, where the only way you will get in is by trying right at the 6 AM opening bell, and then being luck, or start many days earlier and start walking. Which will also take inventory out, away from others.
I have also noted that, currently, the Standard View Studios are completely booked out before the 7 month window and the Preferred View are disappearing instantaneously at 8 AM Eastern Time at the 7 month window. And this can only get worse as more and more people buy Resale in the future.
In other words, I think Riviera is always going to be one messed up resort when it comes to booking.
I would be willing to bet that Disney will help keep the resale value inflated. They don't want a newer property to significantly decrease on the resale market and if it is too low, I foresee them buying it back to be sold to direct buyers, thus eliminating the resale restrictions. Sure, in a few years, the point value might go down from current rates (and isn't that a risk with any property in all honestly-vacations and rental are always the first and hardest hit in a recession) but I don't think that Disney would allow the sales price to hit bargain basement pricing at a fairly new resort.
I would be willing to bet that Disney will help keep the resale value inflated. They don't want a newer property to significantly decrease on the resale market and if it is too low, I foresee them buying it back to be sold to direct buyers, thus eliminating the resale restrictions. Sure, in a few years, the point value might go down from current rates (and isn't that a risk with any property in all honestly-vacations and rental are always the first and hardest hit in a recession) but I don't think that Disney would allow the sales price to hit bargain basement pricing at a fairly new resort.
It may not go down to the level of realistic Market Price, as you said, Disney ROFR may keep the price higher. But those Riveria contract will just stay on the market for much much longer until seller drop prices below ROFR levels, because I for one won't ever make an offer until it gets to be much cheaper than SSR. The question than is DVC budget big enough to ROFR every Riveria resale if they are trying to keep the price artificially high. I get that they can than turn around and sell at a higher price for profit, but if it doesn't sell out fast enough, I can see that aren't be much ROFR like Aulani, as they would have too many points to sale. One thing for sure, the future is going to be interesting in regards to what happens with DVC.
Great3
It may not go down to the level of realistic Market Price, as you said, Disney ROFR may keep the price higher. But those Riveria contract will just stay on the market for much much longer until seller drop prices below ROFR levels, because I for one won't ever make an offer until it gets to be much cheaper than SSR. The question than is DVC budget big enough to ROFR every Riveria resale if they are trying to keep the price artificially high. I get that they can than turn around and sell at a higher price for profit, but if it doesn't sell out fast enough, I can see that aren't be much ROFR like Aulani, as they would have too many points to sale. One thing for sure, the future is going to be interesting in regards to what happens with DVC.
Great3
I would take that bet. Historically, Disney has not bought back a property it is actively marketing (Riviera and Aulani now); if you found an owner willing to sell AUL for $40/point, I would bet Disney doesn't touch it.I would be willing to bet that Disney will help keep the resale value inflated. They don't want a newer property to significantly decrease on the resale market and if it is too low, I foresee them buying it back to be sold to direct buyers, thus eliminating the resale restrictions. Sure, in a few years, the point value might go down from current rates (and isn't that a risk with any property in all honestly-vacations and rental are always the first and hardest hit in a recession) but I don't think that Disney would allow the sales price to hit bargain basement pricing at a fairly new resort.
I would take that bet. Historically, Disney has not bought back a property it is actively marketing (Riviera and Aulani now); if you found an owner willing to sell AUL for $40/point, I would bet Disney doesn't touch it.
The flaw with expecting low Riviera resale prices is that owners will not want to lose their shirts on an elective sale. So if an owner chooses to sell, they could probably afford to be patient. If, on the other hand, they HAVE TO sell (because of financing, maybe), they probably can't afford to go too low without needing to bring money to the table. If anything, a desperate owner will just foreclose and walk away.
Barring larger macro-economic factors, dirt-cheap Riviera resale in the near term is a pipe dream. And in a few years, $175/point for a Disney timeshare may be what's considered dirt-cheap.
I think that once Riviera sells out, and a few resale contracts change hands, Riviera will become a nightmare to book. It will get a reputation as one of the hardest, even for people who own there. I think that reputation will also tend to scare off resale buyers, which will also cause the price to drop.I would take that bet. Historically, Disney has not bought back a property it is actively marketing (Riviera and Aulani now); if you found an owner willing to sell AUL for $40/point, I would bet Disney doesn't touch it.
The flaw with expecting low Riviera resale prices is that owners will not want to lose their shirts on an elective sale. So if an owner chooses to sell, they could probably afford to be patient. If, on the other hand, they HAVE TO sell (because of financing, maybe), they probably can't afford to go too low without needing to bring money to the table. If anything, a desperate owner will just foreclose and walk away.
Barring larger macro-economic factors, dirt-cheap Riviera resale in the near term is a pipe dream. And in a few years, $175/point for a Disney timeshare may be what's considered dirt-cheap.
I think they are listed around 150 but go for 140-145. I think 120 is way too low for CCV, which would put it only the slightly above AKV and OKW extended. I think CCV is about where it should be relative to the resorts, coming below PVB/BLT which is the cheapest of the monorail and Epcot resorts. I think the resale prices have risen quite a bit since the CCV started really hitting the market making it seem fairly high.One other problem is that initially it's difficult to tell what the true resale value will be. Early numbers are inflated by low supply I think. Copper Creek resale for example seems to be at $150? I have a hard time imaging that CCV will maintain that price in the long run. IMO, it should be around $120 maybe, assuming of course the others stay flat.