2021 Point Reallocation

[sethschroeder]

I doubt it would happen but it would make sense at BWV to have the Garden and Standard be slightly closer or at least have Boardwalk be more expensive than Garden.

Even if it was something like a change in the 2nd lowest month in a studio from 78 Std/ 107 B+P to 78 Std/ 106 P/ 116 B that might be a step in the right direction. They could leave the cheapest units alone, have a tiny reduction on the Garden view, and offset it with an increase to the best view at the resort.

 

[Mumof4mice]

Our family's trips (exclusively January, 2BR/2 PVB Studios) will cost a few extra points. We would have benefited from the retracted 2020 charts. But I'm much happier with this outcome. Cost saving is a necessary incentive in making the DVC purchase decision. But if financial analysis were the sole factor in our decision making process, who would even buy any timeshare?

Brand trust, the seamless convenience of enjoying a great product, intangible "magic", are core attributes of the product. Having to watch out for underhanded dealings at every turn is not magical. Hopefully DVC management heeded the membership protest and remembers the lesson for a little while.

 

[SG131]

I’m of the belief that the reason the first two weeks of December in particular are so popular is that the point requirements are so low.

Sure, the weather is more bearable and there are Christmas decorations, but I am wholly convinced that if you swapped the point requirements of the first two weeks of December with the first two weeks of August, you would very suddenly see people clamoring for those 100+ degree days like they were free samples at Costco.

This will make my 2021 December trip a bit tighter, but other than that set trip I’m definitely in the group that would adjust dates based on points. If summer were to suddenly be the cheapest I would go then. My vacation time is pretty flexible at the moment and I don’t mind the heat. But we like a two bedroom unit so I have been gravitating toward lower point times of the year because it makes a big difference at that size.

 

[mustinjourney]

The added September season that no one wants is simply a ploy to shift points to jack up prices elsewhere across the board. Looking at BWV 1BR, points up literally higher for every single date except September and a select few in the 7th travel period. I don't see this enabling me to go during different times in the year as it appears to simply result in my paying more to go at any point in the year. I hope there is push back.

That's kind of the point for a reallocation. Reduce points in instances where people don't normally travel in order to increase usage rates during that period...and then raise points during the rest of the "fall frenzy" when demand has been high.

It hurts my travel schedule -- but I really don't see how you can argue with the reasoning here.

 

[Bing Showei]

Well, way back when the points charts were first created, park attendance and Disney resort occupancy really were low during those first two weeks of December. The parks were almost empty - it was a wonderful time to come! The points charts copied the resort seasons almost exactly, with prices for those two weeks that were very low to encourage people to come. So those point charts did their job, didn’t they?

Agreed. But how often have we seen new potential owners warned that “DVC busy season is not regular busy season?”

Or “If you plan to travel during mid September to mid January you need to book at home at 11-months.”

Then there’s the multi-layered warning: “even SSR may become unavailable at 7-months during Fall Frenzy.”

How cute, we even came up with a name for it.

I’m no Disney apologist/cheerleader, but in this instance, I do think there is something to be celebrated that DVCMC seems to actually be looking very specifically at member usage separate from what mother-ship park/bottom-line needs may be in determining what changes best serves the greater membership.

 

[zavandor]

I’m no Disney apologist/cheerleader, but in this instance, I do think there is something to be celebrated that DVCMC seems to actually be looking very specifically at member usage separate from what mother-ship park/bottom-line needs may be in determining what changes best serves the greater membership.

There might be another thing at play here. As written by Crvetter, The Disney company wants to keep the DVC point costs and the seasons for rack rates somehow aligned. While the fall and early December have been very popular with DVC members for many years, it's a more recent phenomenon for the theme parks to be busier.
If they increase the rack rates for the Fall and DVC rooms are still in Choice season, then renting points would mean a huge discount and more and more people would look for a rental, causing Disney to lose money during a (newly) profitable season.

If I weren't a DVC member and liked to go in the autumn with free dining, I'd be very worried now. If this is part of a grander strategy, we may not see free dining in the fall anymore or be scaled back over the years with fewer and fewer rooms included. Last year free dining has been offered during the summer; maybe it's because of people postponing a visit until Galaxy edge opened or maybe it's Disney switching the focus of discounts over to the summer.

Don't get me wrong, I think this reallocation is a good thing. But the fall has been crazy since I joined 7+ years ago, this change was long overdue. So why now?

 

[Bing Showei]

Don't get me wrong, I think this reallocation is a good thing. But the fall has been crazy since I joined 7+ years ago, this change was long overdue. So why now?

Maybe because it is long overdue? I don’t know.

The cynic in me would love to run with it, but what if this is really a good-faith measure?

There have been reallocations in the past with the most egregious probably being the THV in 2013, but in no instance was there the kind of pushback that the 2020 reallocation brought about. It was so bad you had an Italian guy half way around the world threatening a class-action legal challenge to the wholesale reduction in owner interest. Maybe it was a wake up call.

In my exchanges with Yvonne, I got the sense that management, at some level, may have been caught a little off guard about the implications of the point changes (specifically at VGF with no dedicated studio or 1BRs). It took them a minute as though they were scrambling to look at the numbers before they countered that increases were offset by 2BR decreases. It took walking them through the lockoff numbers and the absence of a 1:1 balance for them to abandon that assertion. The conversation switched to addressing demand.

Maybe 2020 charts really were just a giant cluster? Maybe management has skated by doing very little since 2013 to address member pain-points around booking, and then someone royally screwed up the analysis.

Maybe they got caught with their hand in the cookie jar and this is an olive branch.

Or maybe, as you and crvetter are suggesting this is a move to address the rental market. My questions would be: Is the rental market really taking that much market share from Disney? Couldn’t Disney more directly address the rental challenge if it was indeed cannibalizing the cash market?

 

[mmmikey]

It doesn't really matter though. They can adjust to make nights booking at 11 months slightly more and nights left open slightly less.

I really don't like any idea that penalizes owners who plan far in advance. 11 month bookings shouldn't be assumed to be placeholders or squatting on rooms even if there is a percentage of owners who abuse it.

Knowing I plan to take a vacation to WDW nearly every year is a big part of the decision to buy DVC when you don't live close by. Having a premium applied to provide flexibility to those who book later seems rather unfair.

 

[Cyberc1978]

Or maybe, as you and crvetter are suggesting this is a move to address the rental market. My questions would be: Is the rental market really taking that much market share from Disney? Couldn’t Disney more directly address the rental challenge if it was indeed cannibalizing the cash market?

Just curious how this potentially could impact the rental market? By increasing the points required to book a room would effectively raise the overall $$ cost to book a room. If I charge $20 per point for a room that costs 17 points or 19 points would that really make any difference as the renters still save a fortune compared to rack.

OTOH by lowering the cost in some months could increase the competition with rack rates.

 

[sethschroeder]

I really don't like any idea that penalizes owners who plan far in advance. 11 month bookings shouldn't be assumed to be placeholders or squatting on rooms even if there is a percentage of owners who abuse it.

Knowing I plan to take a vacation to WDW nearly every year is a big part of the decision to buy DVC when you don't live close by. Having a premium applied to provide flexibility to those who book later seems rather unfair.

It's called supply and demand. If you have 50 people trying to book a room today and 1 person trying to book a room tomorrow. Then would you not agree there is more demand for today than tomorrow?

What you are trying to do with the point chart changes is incentize people to stay when less home resort people currently are staying today (except as a last resort).

This actually gives you as someone who wants a specific date a better chance at getting your 1st choice. It also moves those looking for a deal or to save points away from the priority dates.

Think of it this way if every single day of the year was exactly the same points what would you think? Would you say don't change it? So why is it different now? The points aligned to a specifc date can still be incorrect.

You still might miss out on certain dates but the hope is if you do either you save points on a less desirable week or you spend more but get a more desirable week (based on the cumulative thoughts of best and worst of all dvc members shown in their booking patterns).

Does it make sense that one of the hardest times to book, when the best holiday party is going on, that it would have been the cheapest time of year? Or are you doubling up people who want a cheap room with people who want that specific time of year causing an issue.

 

[sethschroeder]

Just curious how this potentially could impact the rental market? By increasing the points required to book a room would effectively raise the overall $$ cost to book a room. If I charge $20 per point for a room that costs 17 points or 19 points would that really make any difference as the renters still save a fortune compared to rack.

OTOH by lowering the cost in some months could increase the competition with rack rates.

Ya I don't think Disney can do anything about DVC rental vs Hotel. I mean the purpose is to allow people to save money so long term DVC will start being cheaper and cheaper in comparison unless the hotel side starts to struggle.

I mean I could book a 1BR at AKV on points for less than I could get a room at AOA and this was before the skyliner.

Who knows though some people that decide on programs are just that short sited and don't understand the relationships between item A and item B.

Also in you example if they raise that room by "$40" based on points they are lowering a room elsewhere $40 at another time.

 

[tnicks]

That's kind of the point for a reallocation. Reduce points in instances where people don't normally travel in order to increase usage rates during that period...and then raise points during the rest of the "fall frenzy" when demand has been high.

It hurts my travel schedule -- but I really don't see how you can argue with the reasoning here.

We're looking at a significant reduction in points over a 19 day period when few people are willing to take their children out of school, when it's still warmer than some like, and during a risky travel period due to hurricanes and rain. It's fair to reduce points at low occupancy periods, but I will be somewhat surprised if this period actually sees that significant of a rise in popularity. If it does not, then it does nothing to alleviate the problem and provides only a means to increasing point allocations across the board. The "fall frenzy" periods are still lower in comparison and I suspect the issues that exist today will largely exist tomorrow, but I'll have less points because of it. If DVC usage spreads out across the year, I will be pleasantly surprised, but surprised none the less.

 

[sethschroeder]

We're looking at a significant reduction in points over a 19 day period when few people are willing to take their children out of school, when it's still warmer than some like, and during a risky travel period due to hurricanes and rain. It's fair to reduce points at low occupancy periods, but I will be somewhat surprised if this period actually sees that significant of a rise in popularity. If it does not, then it does nothing to alleviate the problem and provides only a means to increasing point allocations across the board. The "fall frenzy" periods are still lower in comparison and I suspect the issues that exist today will largely exist tomorrow, but I'll have less points because of it. If DVC usage spreads out across the year, I will be pleasantly surprised, but surprised none the less.

Then you lower it more.

This is not hopefully the final answer as I don't personally think it's correct.

 

[crvetter]

Or maybe, as you and crvetter are suggesting this is a move to address the rental market. My questions would be: Is the rental market really taking that much market share from Disney? Couldn’t Disney more directly address the rental challenge if it was indeed cannibalizing the cash market?

I mean my suggestion is that DVC is careful with the amount of points they adjust. The nightly point costs have to be aligned/correlated to the cash rates to a degree, to make it easier for them (by have to I don’t mean should be, I agree seasonal changes should be independent from Disney seasons). If they aren’t correlated then DVD when renting it’s points through the CRO has some issues with some seasons being more lucrative than others. Actually an advantage here is that DVD would be encouraged to take less rooms in the fall now (increased point cost) and more in the summer (decreased point cost) because For the summer they will now get more $ per point because they need cash rates to be consistent across all properties. So they could just opt to never have that many DVC rooms available in the fall too, allowing them to not move the cash rates around at all. The cynic says this is why they never moved points across seasons for years and they did this year after you, I @zavandor and all the others really showed DVCMC that they need to adjust seasons. And they can a lot easier now that the cash rates are so high across most of the year at Disney.

But this whole Cash price and needing to be consistent is why I don’t think any meaningful changes to the cabin and bungalow points will occur. If the point cost gets too low then I bet a lot more people will learn about rentals if all the sudden the discount increased dramatically. (Lower point costs means lower rental price but Disney won’t want to move its cash price too much).

But overall I think DVCMC did something that was beneficial to the membership. So no matter the motive it doesn’t matter to me because it was within their mandate and justifiable in my opinion. I plan on writing Yvonne (since it’s who we all talked to) and to thank them for listening to our feedback and hope to work with them in the future to keep changes consistent with member’s needs. Sometimes it’s nice to provide positive feedback.

 

[skier_pete]

To the question on VGC - I did a quick totaling of the year (easy to do at VGC since 46 2-bedrooms and 2-GV.

2020 - Total number of points - 1,176,392
2021 - Total number of points - 1,141,710
Difference = 34682 less in 2021

However, the information I found says VGC has 1,136,865 points, meaning that in 2020, they were actually overcharging members pretty significantly - while in 2021 the number of bookable points is less than 5000 points off, which is less than 0.5 pt per room per day. Someone with more patience than me would have to look into why they were overcharging in 2020. (Perhaps they had to take a room or two out of commision?

On the other side of things: @Bing Showei mentions whether Disney is doing this with true sincerity - and I can see where he would question it based on their past behavior with last years charts - but to me it seems very fair.

I decided to do the full dig down and find out if they were being fair or not.- I added up the points charts for BWV same as I did last year.
2020 Points needed with all LOs as 2-beds 4905875
2020 Points needed with all LOs as studios/1-beds 5247170
LO Premium for 2020 341295 (Note this is the "normal" number for the LO premium

2021 Points needed with all LOs as 2-beds 4893840
2021 Points needed with all LOs as studios/1-beds 5232567
LO Premium for 2021 338727

No not only did they not increase the LO premium in 2021, it actually went down ever so slightly (2568 pts, or 0.8%)
(The original 2020 point charts that we protested increase LO premium at BWV by 41% to 481676 points)

So VERY good news that they did not increase the LO premium.

 

[mmmikey]

It's called supply and demand. If you have 50 people trying to book a room today and 1 person trying to book a room tomorrow. Then would you not agree there is more demand for today than tomorrow?

What you are trying to do with the point chart changes is incentize people to stay when less home resort people currently are staying today (except as a last resort).

This actually gives you as someone who wants a specific date a better chance at getting your 1st choice. It also moves those looking for a deal or to save points away from the priority dates.

Think of it this way if every single day of the year was exactly the same points what would you think? Would you say don't change it? So why is it different now? The points aligned to a specifc date can still be incorrect.

You still might miss out on certain dates but the hope is if you do either you save points on a less desirable week or you spend more but get a more desirable week (based on the cumulative thoughts of best and worst of all dvc members shown in their booking patterns).

Does it make sense that one of the hardest times to book, when the best holiday party is going on, that it would have been the cheapest time of year? Or are you doubling up people who want a cheap room with people who want that specific time of year causing an issue.

I don't think any of what you wrote here directly supports the idea of increasing point costs based on how far in advance you are able to plan/book. That would erode the value of the product as a pre-planned/paid vacation. There are clearly problems like walking (apply fee that starts at 0 but eventually compounds based on consecutive changes past a reasonable threshold?) and the over concentration of demand in low points seasons where home resort advantage is important (system working as intended in this case).

Shifting points between seasons to continue to adapt to DVC community is what's required.. and even as a best case scenario, that will always be playing catch-up as DVC demand based on season will not remain static and will continue to shift.

TLDR; Fix walking and balance points more dynamically. Don't punish long term planners who book and stay put.

 

[Bing Showei]

The "fall frenzy" periods are still lower in comparison and I suspect the issues that exist today will largely exist tomorrow, but I'll have less points because of it. If DVC usage spreads out across the year, I will be pleasantly surprised, but surprised none the less.

As was seen when they introduced the charts for 2010, management was handcuffed by the 20% limit as outlined in the POS and a second reallocation was done in 2011 to adjust as Disney saw fit. I suspect this is just phase one of x.

As zavandor pointed out the pendulum has swung too far one way for too long. Putting aside the personal impact of these changes, it would be hard to argue that the new point charts don’t seem to be making an honest effort to address an imbalance in supply and demand.

That said, I have no illusions the ills of booking suddenly being cured, but I will applaud this step in the seemingly right direction.

Most members have simply adapted all these years, but walking, stalking hourly over weeks, hovering over the mouse button based on atomic clock synchronization, trying to catch walkers droppings like Gollum following Frodo around; none of this should be normal just to secure a fall booking.

 

[sethschroeder]

Shifting points between seasons to continue to adapt to DVC community is what's required.. and even as a best case scenario, that will always be playing catch-up as DVC demand based on season will not remain static and will continue to shift.

TLDR; Fix walking and balance points more dynamically. Don't punish long term planners who book and stay put.

Which is what I am saying.

How do you know what to increase and what to decrease? You look at booking and wait list historicals.

Days that book at 11 months get in a slightly higher point season, those booking at 10 months have less demand thus you have those shifted to a lower point season.

How would you suggest they adjust points if they don't look at how quickly and how many people want specifc dates?

 

[zavandor]

it would be hard to argue that the new point charts don’t seem to be making an honest effort to address an imbalance in supply and demand.

I agree. We may argue on specific days of the year. For example, I would have created special "mini-seasons" for RunDisney Events, when there is a spike of demand compared to the other days fo the week. And I wouldn't have increased the last two weeks of January: it's true this year they were in higher demand, but probably due to the Galaxy Edge opening.
But those are details, judging the changes as a whole, they seem to make sense and probably will have a positive impact.

 

[Lorana]

I confess I’m not that happy. In 2019 & 2020, our 127 direct points at BRV could get a week for anytime except Easter & Christmas.

Now we can’t do a full week:
Apr 11—30
Jun 11—Aug 15
Feb 16—28
Mar 1—27
Apr 5—10
Nov 24—26
Plus Easter & Christmas

These periods include ALL of our kids school vacation periods, except for two weeks in August.