2021 Point Reallocation

[CanadaDisney05]

I confess I’m not that happy. In 2019 & 2020, our 127 direct points at BRV could get a week for anytime except Easter & Christmas.

Now we can’t do a full week:
Apr 11—30
Jun 11—Aug 15
Feb 16—28
Mar 1—27
Apr 5—10
Nov 24—26
Plus Easter & Christmas

These periods include ALL of our kids school vacation periods, except for two weeks in August.

I just looked at Jun 11 - Aug 15 because this is the time we travel. It jumped from 127 points to 130 points. Can you not just borrow indefinitely to cover a 3 point shortfall?

Also, Nov 24 - 26 & Apr 5 - 10 could never get you a full week. They aren't even a full week.

 

[Lorana]

I just looked at Jun 11 - Aug 15 because this is the time we travel. It jumped from 127 points to 130 points. Can you not just borrow indefinitely to cover a 3 point shortfall?

Also, Nov 24 - 26 & Apr 5 - 10 could never get you a full week. They aren't even a full week.

I certainly could borrow, but then I’d still have the same problem next year. And One Time Use Points can’t be booked 11 months out.

As for the dates - I just cut and paste the dates in the travel periods on the charts. You’ll see the period I cannot book a full week in April, for example, is April 1-30 because Easter period goes to April 4, and both April 5-10 and April 11-30 are in the list above. And Thanksgiving (Nov 24-26) increased enough that a week over Thanksgiving is now 136 points.

The point is only one period - Easter/Christmas (Premium) - was more points than I could book with my direct points, but now there are 3 travel periods I cannot travel, and that includes my kids Feb & April vacation weeks, all of summer except two weeks in late August, and Thanksgiving week.

(Now, I also have resale points as well so I’m not completely screwed, but this highlights how much total points for studios increased).

 

[crvetter]

(Now, I also have resale points as well so I’m not completely screwed, but this highlights how much total points for studios increased).

While I get the seasons/days you are interested in went up but this statement without context could be misleading to other readers. For the WDW resorts the cost to book a studio for an entire year by all accounts seems to have stayed the same (or within tolerance). So while the seasons/days you were interested in the studio cost went up there was an equal offset in other nights to bring the cost for the entire year the same (or differently phrased the average nightly point cost over the entire year hasn’t changed from 2020 to 2021).

 

[sethschroeder]

I certainly could borrow, but then I’d still have the same problem next year. And One Time Use Points can’t be booked 11 months out.

Except I think the point was you always borrow. In theory you should not run out of borrowed points for 43 years.

In your case with the last full year of ownership being 2041 you would have 64 points that final year for your last stay on the contract. So pretty much zero impact until 22 years from where you are staying for half a stay.

This is also why all 3 contracts I purchased I got loaded so it can cover these shortages of a few points that might come up over time.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

If you borrow 3 points into perpuitity it would take a long time before you missed an entire vacation.

As for the dates - I just cut and paste the dates in the travel periods on the charts. You’ll see the period I cannot book a full week in April, for example, is April 1-30 because Easter period goes to April 4, and both April 5-10 and April 11-30 are in the list above. And Thanksgiving (Nov 24-26) increased enough that a week over Thanksgiving is now 136 points.

The point is only one period - Easter/Christmas (Premium) - was more points than I could book with my direct points, but now there are 3 travel periods I cannot travel, and that includes my kids Feb & April vacation weeks, all of summer except two weeks in late August, and Thanksgiving week.

(Now, I also have resale points as well so I’m not completely screwed, but this highlights how much total points for studios increased).

I get it. Re allocations are going to suck for some, and be great for others. However, if you were to borrow in perpetuity, it would take a long time to run out of points. For fun, I just ran the calculation out until 2042 (expiration of boulder ridge), and you would at no point have zero points. in 2042, you would start the year with 64 points. Go to OKW for a couple of trips, and that would make up the difference

 

[mustinjourney]

There might be another thing at play here. As written by Crvetter, The Disney company wants to keep the DVC point costs and the seasons for rack rates somehow aligned. While the fall and early December have been very popular with DVC members for many years, it's a more recent phenomenon for the theme parks to be busier.
If they increase the rack rates for the Fall and DVC rooms are still in Choice season, then renting points would mean a huge discount and more and more people would look for a rental, causing Disney to lose money during a (newly) profitable season.

If I weren't a DVC member and liked to go in the autumn with free dining, I'd be very worried now. If this is part of a grander strategy, we may not see free dining in the fall anymore or be scaled back over the years with fewer and fewer rooms included. Last year free dining has been offered during the summer; maybe it's because of people postponing a visit until Galaxy edge opened or maybe it's Disney switching the focus of discounts over to the summer.

Don't get me wrong, I think this reallocation is a good thing. But the fall has been crazy since I joined 7+ years ago, this change was long overdue. So why now?

aside from this shift -- I don't expect free dining to be a thing of the future (assuming good economy) now that SW:GE is "fully operational." Not to mention epcot is getting a huge overhaul and the upcoming 50th anniversary celebration. The next few years are likely to be record setting.

 

[mustinjourney]

We're looking at a significant reduction in points over a 19 day period when few people are willing to take their children out of school, when it's still warmer than some like, and during a risky travel period due to hurricanes and rain. It's fair to reduce points at low occupancy periods, but I will be somewhat surprised if this period actually sees that significant of a rise in popularity. If it does not, then it does nothing to alleviate the problem and provides only a means to increasing point allocations across the board. The "fall frenzy" periods are still lower in comparison and I suspect the issues that exist today will largely exist tomorrow, but I'll have less points because of it. If DVC usage spreads out across the year, I will be pleasantly surprised, but surprised none the less.

I'd be willing to bet that people without kids that might normally go in late September or October would be willing to move up their trip a few weeks to save points. When those people move to September -- all of the sudden there are more openings in the fall. Not to mention, I have a feeling that May/early June is going to see a big influx of travelers that have flexibility.

 

[mustinjourney]

To the question on VGC - I did a quick totaling of the year (easy to do at VGC since 46 2-bedrooms and 2-GV.

2020 - Total number of points - 1,176,392
2021 - Total number of points - 1,141,710
Difference = 34682 less in 2021

However, the information I found says VGC has 1,136,865 points, meaning that in 2020, they were actually overcharging members pretty significantly - while in 2021 the number of bookable points is less than 5000 points off, which is less than 0.5 pt per room per day. Someone with more patience than me would have to look into why they were overcharging in 2020. (Perhaps they had to take a room or two out of commision?

On the other side of things: @Bing Showei mentions whether Disney is doing this with true sincerity - and I can see where he would question it based on their past behavior with last years charts - but to me it seems very fair.

I decided to do the full dig down and find out if they were being fair or not.- I added up the points charts for BWV same as I did last year.
2020 Points needed with all LOs as 2-beds 4905875
2020 Points needed with all LOs as studios/1-beds 5247170
LO Premium for 2020 341295 (Note this is the "normal" number for the LO premium

2021 Points needed with all LOs as 2-beds 4893840
2021 Points needed with all LOs as studios/1-beds 5232567
LO Premium for 2021 338727

No not only did they not increase the LO premium in 2021, it actually went down ever so slightly (2568 pts, or 0.8%)
(The original 2020 point charts that we protested increase LO premium at BWV by 41% to 481676 points)

So VERY good news that they did not increase the LO premium.

thanks for looking into this!!!

 

[mustinjourney]

Don't get me wrong, I think this reallocation is a good thing. But the fall has been crazy since I joined 7+ years ago, this change was long overdue. So why now?

any chance this change could be tied into the daily pricing of tickets that were introduced last year?

Maybe 2020 charts really were just a giant cluster? Maybe management has skated by doing very little since 2013 to address member pain-points around booking, and then someone royally screwed up the analysis.

Maybe they got caught with their hand in the cookie jar and this is an olive branch.

I've wondered if the 2020 cluster was due to someone fooling around with the already made spreadsheet and they started increasing studios and 1BRs, and then decreased 2Brs and increased GVs and when it auto-totaled the number of points, they just saw that it balanced out and figured everything was ok.

Or maybe, as you and crvetter are suggesting this is a move to address the rental market. My questions would be: Is the rental market really taking that much market share from Disney? Couldn’t Disney more directly address the rental challenge if it was indeed cannibalizing the cash market?

I just don't see this as an attempt to cut in on the DVC rental market. By all accounts, I don't think Disney has had trouble renting out their huge inventory of DVC rooms (with the exception of SSR -- which they've been giving deals to Costco recently).

 

[mustinjourney]

To the question on VGC - I did a quick totaling of the year (easy to do at VGC since 46 2-bedrooms and 2-GV.

2020 - Total number of points - 1,176,392
2021 - Total number of points - 1,141,710
Difference = 34682 less in 2021

However, the information I found says VGC has 1,136,865 points, meaning that in 2020, they were actually overcharging members pretty significantly - while in 2021 the number of bookable points is less than 5000 points off, which is less than 0.5 pt per room per day. Someone with more patience than me would have to look into why they were overcharging in 2020. (Perhaps they had to take a room or two out of commision?

On the other side of things: @Bing Showei mentions whether Disney is doing this with true sincerity - and I can see where he would question it based on their past behavior with last years charts - but to me it seems very fair.

I decided to do the full dig down and find out if they were being fair or not.- I added up the points charts for BWV same as I did last year.
2020 Points needed with all LOs as 2-beds 4905875
2020 Points needed with all LOs as studios/1-beds 5247170
LO Premium for 2020 341295 (Note this is the "normal" number for the LO premium

2021 Points needed with all LOs as 2-beds 4893840
2021 Points needed with all LOs as studios/1-beds 5232567
LO Premium for 2021 338727

No not only did they not increase the LO premium in 2021, it actually went down ever so slightly (2568 pts, or 0.8%)
(The original 2020 point charts that we protested increase LO premium at BWV by 41% to 481676 points)

So VERY good news that they did not increase the LO premium.

Well -- about 5000 points can be explained by having February 29th (88 points for 2 BRs and 188 points for GV). So now you're only down to 30,000 unexplained points.

 

[crvetter]

We have mainly focused on the WDW resorts. Earlier someone mentioned that the new 2021 VGC point chart seemed strange because it had major changes lowering points for most times of the year.

The VGC point chart is strange. The points needed for a studio in Adventure season have remained the same, as did 1BRs in Choice season. Otherwise, the points needed for the studios, 1BRs and 2BRs have decreased throughout the year. The only increases are for the GVs. The point changes do not look like it is possible to still have total points for the resort for the year remain the same, e.g. the 2BRs have gone down on a weekly basis for the year more than the GVs have risen and there are 23 dedicated 2BRs and 23 lock-off 2BRs, while there are only 2 GVs.

So it looks like DVC has both shifted points to GVs from other rooms (which we asserted last year it could not do) and substantially lowered total points applicable to the resort.

Vero Beach has studios going up year round by a significant amount while Ocean View Inn rooms decrease year round and standard view inn rooms stay the same for two seasons and decrease the others. Once again DVC apparently is carrying out its position from last year that it can shift points from one type of room to another.

See @skier_pete's analysis. Also I did the room cost for the entire year for VGC and overall each room type (Studio, 1 Bed, 2 Bed, and Grand Villa) actually had their average nightly point cost drop between 2020 to 2021. To the analysis below I would expect the cost to book the entire resort for a year to be 52/51 times the number of points sold for WDW resorts as they only sell 51 out of the 52 Use Weeks. Perhaps at VGC they dropped the total points required to book the entire resort because California law dictates something else. I don't have any of the filings for VGC available to me to see how the use weeks were sold.

To the question on VGC - I did a quick totaling of the year (easy to do at VGC since 46 2-bedrooms and 2-GV.

2020 - Total number of points - 1,176,392
2021 - Total number of points - 1,141,710
Difference = 34682 less in 2021

However, the information I found says VGC has 1,136,865 points, meaning that in 2020, they were actually overcharging members pretty significantly - while in 2021 the number of bookable points is less than 5000 points off, which is less than 0.5 pt per room per day. Someone with more patience than me would have to look into why they were overcharging in 2020. (Perhaps they had to take a room or two out of commision?

On the other side of things: @Bing Showei mentions whether Disney is doing this with true sincerity - and I can see where he would question it based on their past behavior with last years charts - but to me it seems very fair.

I decided to do the full dig down and find out if they were being fair or not.- I added up the points charts for BWV same as I did last year.
2020 Points needed with all LOs as 2-beds 4905875
2020 Points needed with all LOs as studios/1-beds 5247170
LO Premium for 2020 341295 (Note this is the "normal" number for the LO premium

2021 Points needed with all LOs as 2-beds 4893840
2021 Points needed with all LOs as studios/1-beds 5232567
LO Premium for 2021 338727

No not only did they not increase the LO premium in 2021, it actually went down ever so slightly (2568 pts, or 0.8%)
(The original 2020 point charts that we protested increase LO premium at BWV by 41% to 481676 points)

So VERY good news that they did not increase the LO premium.

 

[ckb_nc]

If we ever retire, early September (food and wine, halloween party) may become more interesting - heck its still hot in October - last year it was 99 the day we went to TL (great day for a water park).

But it is making harder for my wife as a school teacher to go any other time except the summer as every other break went up.

 

[Brianstl]

I certainly could borrow, but then I’d still have the same problem next year. And One Time Use Points can’t be booked 11 months out.

As for the dates - I just cut and paste the dates in the travel periods on the charts. You’ll see the period I cannot book a full week in April, for example, is April 1-30 because Easter period goes to April 4, and both April 5-10 and April 11-30 are in the list above. And Thanksgiving (Nov 24-26) increased enough that a week over Thanksgiving is now 136 points.

The point is only one period - Easter/Christmas (Premium) - was more points than I could book with my direct points, but now there are 3 travel periods I cannot travel, and that includes my kids Feb & April vacation weeks, all of summer except two weeks in late August, and Thanksgiving week.

(Now, I also have resale points as well so I’m not completely screwed, but this highlights how much total points for studios increased).

The point charts are supposed to balance supply and demand. By increasing the points for times when kids are on vacation and family are more likely to travel Disney is reallocating the points to meet demand. Disney did what they are supposed to here.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I certainly could borrow, but then I’d still have the same problem next year. And One Time Use Points can’t be booked 11 months out.

As for the dates - I just cut and paste the dates in the travel periods on the charts. You’ll see the period I cannot book a full week in April, for example, is April 1-30 because Easter period goes to April 4, and both April 5-10 and April 11-30 are in the list above. And Thanksgiving (Nov 24-26) increased enough that a week over Thanksgiving is now 136 points.

The point is only one period - Easter/Christmas (Premium) - was more points than I could book with my direct points, but now there are 3 travel periods I cannot travel, and that includes my kids Feb & April vacation weeks, all of summer except two weeks in late August, and Thanksgiving week.

(Now, I also have resale points as well so I’m not completely screwed, but this highlights how much total points for studios increased).

Remember that Easter is not a fixed date and can fall anywhere between March 22nd and April 25th so unless you always go on Easter break itself you might find that it decreases the point requirements in some years from previously since they are not placing as many dates into the Premier easter time. If everything does now require a few extra points then yes, you'll be borrowing a few points every year but as mentioned you can end up doing that for many many years if it's somewhere in the 3 pt range. And another reallocation might mean you don't have to anymore.

 

[sethschroeder]

Not to mention, I have a feeling that May/early June is going to see a big influx of travelers that have flexibility.

At first i wasn't paying attention to this but this now has me interested in possibly traveling then. I view summer as overpriced for the point chart especially since we don't have kids in school at this point so can travel in September and get pretty much the same weather with less crowds.

Well -- about 5000 points can be explained by having February 29th (88 points for 2 BRs and 188 points for GV). So now you're only down to 30,000 unexplained points.

I would suspect it has to do with how the calendars falls with possibly more expensive dates falling more on weekends and less during the week in 2020.

 

[Sandisw]

Interesting that dvcexplorer has the same fixed week point costs (for Riviera). I wonder if it's just not updated? Otherwise, there are some nice bargains to be had!

Could it be that the points chart is for 2021 and that they can’t raise the GW sales until one Could no longer book using the 2020 chart. Basically, would not be able to use the 2021 points charts for sales until 2021?

 

[CarolMN]

Well -- about 5000 points can be explained by having February 29th (88 points for 2 BRs and 188 points for GV). So now you're only down to 30,000 unexplained points.

He didn't indicate whether or not he was using a base year to calculate the number of points to completely book the resort. If he did, the resort's total for each year's chart should be the same or nearly so.

As mentioned in an earlier post, you would need to pick a base year that has the maximum possible number of Friday and Saturday nights to do the calculations.

 

[Sandisw]

I'd be willing to bet that people without kids that might normally go in late September or October would be willing to move up their trip a few weeks to save points. When those people move to September -- all of the sudden there are more openings in the fall. Not to mention, I have a feeling that May/early June is going to see a big influx of travelers that have flexibility.

I could be one of them! I am now retired and always did an August trip because school started in September. Id then to visit for Food and Wine during Columbus Day weekend, Knowing thst early September will be less, I will start in 2021 doing 2nd week in September instead. So, I can see People who have flexibility change,

 

[mustinjourney]

I could be one of them! I am now retired and always did an August trip because school started in September. Id then to visit for Food and Wine during Columbus Day weekend, Knowing thst early September will be less, I will start in 2021 doing 2nd week in September instead. So, I can see People who have flexibility change,

my kids get out of school right around memorial day -- so I could see going just after that before the points hit summer rates.

 

[mustinjourney]

He didn't indicate whether or not he was using a base year to calculate the number of points to completely book the resort. If he did, the resort's total for each year's chart should be the same or nearly so.

As mentioned in an earlier post, you would need to pick a base year that has the maximum possible number of Friday and Saturday nights to do the calculations.

good point