weather obsession

[tenneycjt]

So my trip is coming up march 8-12th, I live in the pacific nw where it rains 300 days of the year.. I started looking at long range forecasts,many of the sites are predicting rain for the week im there. Nxt week is sunny all week. When i went last nov I went the week that had the firsst measurable rain in 7 months. How accurate do u think these forecasts are 14 15 days out. As locals what are u hearing from local forecasters about the nxt 2 weeks. Part of the reason I love going to disneyland is to escape the weather here. Anyone else like me coming from out of town obsessing about the weather. HOPING FOR SUN

 

[Katiebird]

It’s not accurate at all for rain 2 weeks out. A rain forecast even 24h out can change a lot.

If it shows rain 2-3 days out, I would prepare for it, but realize it may or may not actually happen.

Also a % chance of rain is just a chance at some point during the day, not that it will rain all day.

 

[gerilyne]

So my trip is coming up march 8-12th, I live in the pacific nw where it rains 300 days of the year.. I started looking at long range forecasts,many of the sites are predicting rain for the week im there. Nxt week is sunny all week. When i went last nov I went the week that had the firsst measurable rain in 7 months. How accurate do u think these forecasts are 14 15 days out. As locals what are u hearing from local forecasters about the nxt 2 weeks. Part of the reason I love going to disneyland is to escape the weather here. Anyone else like me coming from out of town obsessing about the weather. HOPING FOR SUN

I live in Salem, OR and have been doing the exact same thing. It sounds like we will be there the same days. We were there in Oct 2018 and had torrential downpours (like monsoon style rain) during the Halloween party. The best part of that night was my boyfriend was saying there is no rain in the forecast on the weather app as I am looking up and seeing storm clouds rolling in saying no, that is a thunderstorm coming. So the weather app was wrong in real time. It rained off and on the next day too and wasn't bad. This time we are prepared bringing our ponchos, rain gear, waterproof hiking shoes. I am hoping by bringing all of this with us, it will prevent the rain from happening.

But we are absolutely hoping for some sun that week!

 

[ImDMous]

I'm about an hour south of DLand. I don't start paying attention to the weather until it's a couple days out. They really like to get excited about any slight chance of sprinkles, and most of the time it never actually happens. It's really disappointing if you actually like rain because they get you all excited and looking forward to it and then ... nothing.

 

[Going2DisneyAZ]

I'm doing the same thing but HOPING FOR RAIN. lol. We are from Arizona so the rain would be welcome if it lowers crowd level.

 

[BigOHawk]

So my trip is coming up march 8-12th, I live in the pacific nw where it rains 300 days of the year.. I started looking at long range forecasts,many of the sites are predicting rain for the week im there. Nxt week is sunny all week. When i went last nov I went the week that had the firsst measurable rain in 7 months. How accurate do u think these forecasts are 14 15 days out. As locals what are u hearing from local forecasters about the nxt 2 weeks. Part of the reason I love going to disneyland is to escape the weather here. Anyone else like me coming from out of town obsessing about the weather. HOPING FOR SUN

Same, I'll be there that week too for the first time ever and have been checking weather relentlessly for the past two weeks. Accuweather, Weather.com, etc, etc. Week before we are there looks great, heck, it's around 85-90 today! Then nice next week and then our week looks avg with some rain chances as of now, then beautiful the next week. Crossing fingers! I can deal with clouds but rain would damper it a bit! From the Midwest and looking for a winter escape!

 

[wench]

I live near Seattle & actually hope for the rain also. It won’t bother me at all, but it will thin the crowds considerably, so the wait times are shorter.

 

[tenneycjt]

Same, I'll be there that week too for the first time ever and have been checking weather relentlessly for the past two weeks. Accuweather, Weather.com, etc, etc. Week before we are there looks great, heck, it's around 85-90 today! Then nice next week and then our week looks avg with some rain chances as of now, then beautiful the next week. Crossing fingers! I can deal with clouds but rain would damper it a bit! From the Midwest and looking for a winter escape!

This is what i find annoying beautiful the week before and after.

 

[gerilyne]

What is frustrating me is Accuweather online is giving me one forecast and the Weather Channel app is giving me another. I don't mind a little sprinkle especially if it helps to clear out the park or maybe keep people away in the morning to increase chances of a ROTR boarding group but I am craving some California sun. I am slightly kicking myself for not being a time traveler and seeing that this next week may have been the week to go for that.

 

[PairOfDice]

I agree they are not accurate. Our forecast said rain and a comfortable 68ish. It’s going to be a miserable 87 today.

 

[Cal-Pie]

I wouldn't trust a forecast that far out. BUT, I've been to DL many times during the 2nd week of March because my kids have a short school break, and every time we've been rained on at some point in the trip. One year we had absolutely torrential downpours (fortunately they came overnight), last year we only got drizzled on one evening, but it was cold!! I don't think it got above 65° during our whole trip.

 

[StageTek]

It’s not accurate at all for rain 2 weeks out. A rain forecast even 24h out can change a lot.

So true! Here in SoCal the rain report is almost ALWAYS inaccurate.

 

[Mr Snappy]

We are going to be there the same week as you (coming from Kansas). We go this week every year and I can tell you that the forecasts this far out are not reliable at all. Besides, if rain is in the forecast, the parks will be less crowded.....I see this as a win!

 

[tenneycjt]

what was it like last year?

 

[SteveH]

I grew up on the wet side of the Cascade Mountains, and very happy to live on the dry side now. Unlike the PNW the rain that goes through Florida often moves through very fast as there are no mountains to slow it down and stall over.

Two weeks out we had a lot of "spotted" rain in the forecast. I was in Florida for almost 2 week, had one major storm before our Disney trip that really wasn't in the advanced forecast. We had one day that was expected to rain, forecast the day before was looking pretty bad, then the morning of it was mostly out of the forecast, but reality hit and around 10 AM. It rained hard too, not like rain in the northwest at all. Then it died down to a drizzle (northwest style) but by 11ish the rain was over.

Plan for rain, keep a poncho with you. We saw a lot of families that either didn't prepare for the rain or saw it was out of the forecast and assumed they would be fine, kids were soaking wet and cold.

 

[kappyfamily]

Just want to add I’m from pdx and there at the same time too! It honestly doesn’t bother me what the weather is, I’m in DL!

 

[Cal-Pie]

what was it like last year?

Like I said in my post above, I was there last year, March 8-11. It was chilly with one drizzly evening on the 11th. We wore long sleeve tees or a light jacket nearly all day every day, and literally froze the night we watched F! Last year was an unusually cold and wet winter though.

 

[DLgal]

A 14 day forecast in Southern California is about as useful as a tennis racket in a flooded canoe.

 

[Katiebird]

I grew up on the wet side of the Cascade Mountains, and very happy to live on the dry side now. Unlike the PNW the rain that goes through Florida often moves through very fast as there are no mountains to slow it down and stall over.

Two weeks out we had a lot of "spotted" rain in the forecast. I was in Florida for almost 2 week, had one major storm before our Disney trip that really wasn't in the advanced forecast. We had one day that was expected to rain, forecast the day before was looking pretty bad, then the morning of it was mostly out of the forecast, but reality hit and around 10 AM. It rained hard too, not like rain in the northwest at all. Then it died down to a drizzle (northwest style) but by 11ish the rain was over.

Plan for rain, keep a poncho with you. We saw a lot of families that either didn't prepare for the rain or saw it was out of the forecast and assumed they would be fine, kids were soaking wet and cold.

Were you in Florida or California? There’s no real need to plan for rain or to keep ponchos with you if there’s no rain in the forecast in California. In Florida I agree the rain is much more unpredictable.

 

[asumom]

I'm doing the same thing but HOPING FOR RAIN. lol. We are from Arizona so the rain would be welcome if it lowers crowd level.

I heard it doesn't lower the crowd levels anymore like it used to.