Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[havoc315]

I just wish that the mods would allow me to post my graphs so I can show that the Swedish curve is virtually the same as the US. But take it from me, there isn't much difference. The Swedish curve is also following UK closely.

On the UK figures, the deaths figures are accurate, and not really affected by numbers tested - comparing deaths from country to country is reasonably consistent, and not many deaths aren't being tested in the UK. You are correct that testing isn't as widespread here in the UK, but that won't really affect the death statistics.

Plus the UK strategy wasn't just based on herd immunity at the start (I know that for a fact due to other briefings I get through my work, and one of my colleagues is involved with the response to this). The strategy was always to isolate on the sign of symptoms, but that would have the effect of building up herd immunity. Sweden's measures are not too different to that strategy, which is why it is really interesting to see what is happening there, like I said. My stats show that the curve in UK is starting to peak - I put our peak about 1 week away.

Finally, whilst everybody keeps going on about Italy, the worst country when you normalise for population size, is actually Spain.

Mods, please can I have permission to post my graph? Debating about when the parks might open is proving very difficult unless we can debate about when peaks might occur, and my graphs would help. Whilst I am confident that the USA as a whole will have peaked early enough to make a 1st June date realistic, I don't think Florida will have peaked early enough to be open by then. Mid June at the earliest for Florida, and more realistically July is my guess. But at the moment we are all just guessing, because whilst the models should now be able to be validated on the upwards part of the curve, we are all still relying on pure models for the downward part of the curve. We need to wait for more info on what happens with Italy and Spain to know how that might look. It is no good looking at China or S Korea - their curves have been very different (and they are susceptible to a large 2nd peak as a result).

I don't disagree with some of your assessment. But here is the thing about "June 1st realistic" etc etc. You are right that there is a good chance the numbers will be dwindling by June. BUT, if we just go back to business-as-usual, the numbers will skyrocket again. The current curve is based on the distancing measures currently being taken. Go back to business as usual, the numbers spike again... we go back to 2,000-3,000 deaths per day. The death numbers we are seeing now, are based on our behavior 3-4 weeks ago, when distancing was not in effect in most places in the US. If we just "re-open," then 2 months later, we will be right back to where we are now.

 

[hertamaniac]

Yeah, I think the people able to go this summer and fall are probably the people who went relatively unscathed financially and there will be a willingness to have a "special" trip.

I think there will also be another "bucket" of people that will use the recent data/concern as fuel to overspend and make that trip to WDW a reality; they will do it as soon as possible.

 

[xuxa777]

watch out, you're not allowed to be optimistic about the virus, and if you think we won't be quarantined for at least a year, you're not very bright

At least that's what half the places I go to tell me (can't stand going to Reddit anymore because of that. If you believe things will lighten up before the new year, then you're an idiot or not taking it seriously)

Ha so true, reddit is all doomsday like they want it to happen.

Back in late Feb, I was saying the parks would close mid March, and caught a whole bunch a negatively, "your crazy, parks will never close, Vegas will never close etc etc.

Now I say that things are looking up and same people will say you are crazy, the parks will be closed for a year Disney going bankrupt etc.

Alas the internet!

On a serious note I do appreciate the discourse to pass the time (thanks mods!) and this thread has been great for that, all opinions are valid are fun to discuss. The one thing this has taught us is nobody really knows the answers.

Stay safe out there.

 

[mshanson3121]

Models are suggesting Florida will peak on April 21. Not in June.

He's talking about a Disney opening date, not the actual peak date.

 

[osufeth24]

Ha so true, reddit is all doomsday like they want it to happen.

Back in late Feb, I was saying the parks would close mid March, and caught a whole bunch a negatively, "your crazy, parks will never close, Vegas will never close etc etc.

Now I say that things are looking up and same people will say you are crazy, the parks will be closed for a year Disney going bankrupt etc.

Alas the internet!

On a serious note I do appreciate the discourse to pass the time (thanks mods!) and this thread has been great for that, all opinions are valid are fun to discuss. The one thing this has taught us is nobody really knows the answers.

Stay safe out there.

I will defend this slightly, and at that time, I think most of us didn't think it'd get to that point. Like many saying, Disney has never closed before outside of Hurricanes and the one day for 9/11. This is all uncharted territory. But yes, you are right about the rest.

 

[xuxa777]

I just wish that the mods would allow me to post my graphs so I can show that the Swedish curve is virtually the same as the US. But take it from me, there isn't much difference. The Swedish curve is also following UK closely.

On the UK figures, the deaths figures are accurate, and not really affected by numbers tested - comparing deaths from country to country is reasonably consistent, and not many deaths aren't being tested in the UK. You are correct that testing isn't as widespread here in the UK, but that won't really affect the death statistics.

Plus the UK strategy wasn't just based on herd immunity at the start (I know that for a fact due to other briefings I get through my work, and one of my colleagues is involved with the response to this). The strategy was always to isolate on the sign of symptoms, but that would have the effect of building up herd immunity. Sweden's measures are not too different to that strategy, which is why it is really interesting to see what is happening there, like I said. My stats show that the curve in UK is starting to peak - I put our peak about 1 week away.

Finally, whilst everybody keeps going on about Italy, the worst country when you normalise for population size, is actually Spain.

Mods, please can I have permission to post my graph? Debating about when the parks might open is proving very difficult unless we can debate about when peaks might occur, and my graphs would help. Whilst I am confident that the USA as a whole will have peaked early enough to make a 1st June date realistic, I don't think Florida will have peaked early enough to be open by then. Mid June at the earliest for Florida, and more realistically July is my guess. But at the moment we are all just guessing, because whilst the models should now be able to be validated on the upwards part of the curve, we are all still relying on pure models for the downward part of the curve. We need to wait for more info on what happens with Italy and Spain to know how that might look. It is no good looking at China or S Korea - their curves have been very different (and they are susceptible to a large 2nd peak as a result).

You are correct, However we don't need graphs and charts here, people can easily see the information it is just one click away. All the data is super easy to find. Discussion about the data in detail just gets very tiring and the will turn in to a debate on arguing data, which is even worse. I try to keep it very general and not debate. I do appreaciate your thoughts and you have great points but IMHO debating the data is not worth it here

 

[xuxa777]

I will defend this slightly, and at that time, I think most of us didn't think it'd get to that point. Like many saying, Disney has never closed before outside of Hurricanes and the one day for 9/11. This is all uncharted territory. But yes, you are right about the rest.

Yes I get that and completely understand. Personally I didn't think we would have stay at home orders in the US like we do. It got truly scary for a while there, but we are coming out of this.

 

[MaxSkywalker]

Almost zero chance Disney forces masks. The only two scenarios where it even gets serious discussion are government mandate forcing people to wear them, or this lasts multiple years, many many more people die than the models predict and all of american society is changed to the point masks are commonplace.

There are already cities and counties - particularly in California - requiring people to wear masks in public, or risk a fine.

 

[jlwhitney]

watch out, you're not allowed to be optimistic about the virus, and if you think we won't be quarantined for at least a year, you're not very bright

At least that's what half the places I go to tell me (can't stand going to Reddit anymore because of that. If you believe things will lighten up before the new year, then you're an idiot or not taking it seriously)

ain’t that the truth!

 

[MichelinMan]

I don't disagree with some of your assessment. But here is the thing about "June 1st realistic" etc etc. You are right that there is a good chance the numbers will be dwindling by June. BUT, if we just go back to business-as-usual, the numbers will skyrocket again. The current curve is based on the distancing measures currently being taken. Go back to business as usual, the numbers spike again... we go back to 2,000-3,000 deaths per day. The death numbers we are seeing now, are based on our behavior 3-4 weeks ago, when distancing was not in effect in most places in the US. If we just "re-open," then 2 months later, we will be right back to where we are now.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I totally agree with you about there being another spike afterwards. In fact, I think we need to prepare ourselves for cases to continue for the next 12-18 months. But the subsequent spikes in most countries will not be as severe as the first one, and critical care will be more able to cope. Some countries, like China and South Korea, have not had a very big initial outbreak, so they are more vulnerable, and relaxation of measures in those places is unlikely to be as quick as other countries. But the economic consequences of continuing the lockdown for too long, and the knock on effect that will have on the health of a nation, could be worse than the virus itself. There is a tipping point that will be reached, and 1st June looks like a reasonable date to aim for in most regions.

 

[jlwhitney]

I don't disagree with some of your assessment. But here is the thing about "June 1st realistic" etc etc. You are right that there is a good chance the numbers will be dwindling by June. BUT, if we just go back to business-as-usual, the numbers will skyrocket again. The current curve is based on the distancing measures currently being taken. Go back to business as usual, the numbers spike again... we go back to 2,000-3,000 deaths per day. The death numbers we are seeing now, are based on our behavior 3-4 weeks ago, when distancing was not in effect in most places in the US. If we just "re-open," then 2 months later, we will be right back to where we are now.

but also a month ago we were barely testing and some places not at all. Every person that tests positives that isolates will keep a future spike lower and then hospitals can respond better. We won’t be as blind as we were. The current spike we have right now is from a build up of somewhere between 1-2 months possible more of many many people out and about spreading it.

 

[jerry557]

I don't disagree with some of your assessment. But here is the thing about "June 1st realistic" etc etc. You are right that there is a good chance the numbers will be dwindling by June. BUT, if we just go back to business-as-usual, the numbers will skyrocket again. The current curve is based on the distancing measures currently being taken. Go back to business as usual, the numbers spike again... we go back to 2,000-3,000 deaths per day. The death numbers we are seeing now, are based on our behavior 3-4 weeks ago, when distancing was not in effect in most places in the US. If we just "re-open," then 2 months later, we will be right back to where we are now.

So the solution is what? Stay locked down until we get a vaccine, which may never come?

 

[MichelinMan]

You are correct, However we don't need graphs and charts here, people can easily see the information it is just one click away. All the data is super easy to find. Discussion about the data in detail just gets very tiring and the will turn in to a debate on arguing data, which is even worse. I try to keep it very general and not debate. I do appreaciate your thoughts and you have great points but IMHO debating the data is not worth it here

Trouble is, as a risk, reliability and safety expert, who has spent most of my career doing statistical analysis and research, the way most of the data is presented on the Internet is flawed in some way. Even the UK government briefings present data in a way which is flawed - there were some graphs presented yesterday that had me screaming at the television set which made the USA look much worse than it is, when compared to the UK!

 

[xuxa777]

Trouble is, as a risk, reliability and safety expert, who has spent most of my career doing statistical analysis and research, the way most of the data is presented on the Internet is flawed in some way. Even the UK government briefings present data in a way which is flawed - there were some graphs presented yesterday that had me screaming at the television set which made the USA look much worse than it is, when compared to the UK!

I totally agree, due to some bad graphic design choices, there have been some very bad charts/graphs out there. Those same bad charts and data would start appearing in here and then the thread really goes off the rails.

 

[rteetz]

I think we need to reel it in a bit.

 

[MichelinMan]

Models are suggesting Florida will peak on April 21. Not in June.

I didn't say Florida will peak in June. My estimate of peak for Florida is early May - then allow another 4 weeks for the curve to decline takes us into June, and you are probably looking at mid-June as the earliest date for re-opening WDW. But more realistically, just to give a bit more confidence, a 1st July date would be a better date to aim for IMO. By allowing people to book for 1st June is giving people false optimism. But of course, all this assumes that the curves reduce at the same rate as what they have gone up. The models I've seen all seem to predict that, but it will be interesting to see if that is what transpires - I suspect it may not come down as quick as some people hope, as many people will start to flout social distancing rules once they see things improving.

 

[Welsh_Dragon]

I think we need to reel it in a bit.

I wonder whether there is any merit in having a dedicated politics, medical theory, charts and predictions thread.... which you can delete in full, everyday, as the clock strikes midnight.

 

[MichelinMan]

I totally agree, due to some bad graphic design choices, there have been some very bad charts/graphs out there. Those same bad charts and data would start appearing in here and then the thread really goes off the rails.

On this I can totally agree. I've seen lots of bad analysis of data on this thread already - whilst I try to correct some of it, I'm going to try to restrain myself, for fear of taking over the thread. So I can understand entirely why the mods are trying to limit my graphs - they are trying to prevent an escalation of bad information.

 

[Jroceagles]

I didn't say Florida will peak in June. My estimate of peak for Florida is early May - then allow another 4 weeks for the curve to decline takes us into June, and you are probably looking at mid-June as the earliest date for re-opening WDW. But more realistically, just to give a bit more confidence, a 1st July date would be a better date to aim for IMO. By allowing people to book for 1st June is giving people false optimism. But of course, all this assumes that the curves reduce at the same rate as what they have gone up. The models I've seen all seem to predict that, but it will be interesting to see if that is what transpires - I suspect it may not come down as quick as some people hope, as many people will start to flout social distancing rules once they see things improving.

I am hopeful for a mid June to July 1 opening. With that time frame I could see things at WDW look somewhat similar to what we all know and love by what...August 1?

 

[rteetz]

I wonder whether there is any merit in having a dedicated politics, medical theory, charts and predictions thread.... which you can delete in full, everyday, as the clock strikes midnight.

Well that would never work considering politics aren’t allowed at all