Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Brianstl]

It was pretty well stripped, but 150 point CCV was just posted in the ROFR thread at $125 pp.

 

[CastAStone]

Correction to my last post:
—the significant price drops were AKV and VGF (according to the speaker)
—some resorts went up slightly (BLT and BRV)

I mean I guess on a 1 month basis that’s true. Big picture according to their own data, VGF, Poly, BCV, and BWV have seen sustained declines over the last 4-8 months. The other resorts are mostly at or near 12 month lows but aren’t meaningfully lower than the next lowest month.

They’re right about one thing: the number of contracts on the market continues to fall. DVC Resale Market has less than 300 active listings, with more than half of them at just 3 resorts (SSR, BLT, VGF)

 

[lovethesun12]

I'm really surprised SSR didn't fall into the "large drop" category.

It seems like a lot of the movement are smaller point contracts. Not sure if that's always the case.

 

[BrianLo]

The discussion really comes down to one thing. Either you believe there will be a protracted recession or you do not.

Brokers that argue prices will rise despite a protracted recession are out to lunch - or protecting their bottom line.

There is definitely a lot more demand now than we anticipated. I think that in some ways is artificial (between direct closures and a backlog of a lot of intent to buy). Buyers who were already floating around are finally seeing the first downward deflection in over a decade and are eagerly jumping at the chance. Eventually one imagines everyone here who has been sitting and waiting will have bought in and the onward price drop march will continue.

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30 and 5/15 for each resort for reduced contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

The sample size for many resorts is getting small so variability increases, also 1 or 2 contracts that are more than 20% above the average are sometimes impacting the averages



Reduced

……………3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15



AKV 110 109 109 104

AUL 97 93 92 96

BLT 144 146 146 145

BCV 138 137 140 142

BWV 118 118 116 114

BRV 100 ND 94 94

CCV 148 150 150 148

VGF 168 168 168 168

HH 74 74 74 74

OKW 95 94 93 93

POLY 143 144 144 144

SS 102 98 101 101

VB 62 62 63 63

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30 and 5/15 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price is large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the actual sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels

Pending

……3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15



AKV 109 108 109 109

AUL 96 97 97 96

BLT 137 141 144 143

BCV 140 138 140 140

BWV 118 121 121 120

BRV 98 98 97 97

CCV 147 147 150 151

VGF 164 163 161 163

HH 75 76 75 78

OKW 93 93 93 92

POLY 146 146 146 146

SS 101 101 102 102

VB 71 67 67 67

 

[bookwormde]

5/16 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average

 

[superden]

Where are these podcasts? I would also like to listen.

You can also find the podcast on Apple podcast under “My DVC Points Podcast.” I’m not gonna lie, that podcast became the catalyst to our family becoming DVC members. I probably only had five minutes considering whether or not to become one (I’m on the phone with an agent asking if I wanted a subsidized small point Aulani contract below market price and there were a list of buyers ready to buy). Well... we just closed on our first contract last month.

 

[laserpastry]

DVC Resale Market has seen their inventory drop for Poly by about 75% since the beginning of April. Same with AKV - they've just been wiped out. TSS has a ton of AKV and Fidelity like you said has a ton of Poly. Darned if I know.

Please forgive my ignorance, but what is TSS?

Update: Nevermind. Read the response from yesterday. Thanks!

 

[Vkothari916]

Apologies if this has already been covered but does anybody have data on how much prices dropped for the resorts during the previous recession (2009-2011 period)?

 

[bookwormde]

5/17 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30% of average

Best estimate is that the week of 5/11 to 5/17 was about 110% of average

 

[E2ME2]

Please forgive my ignorance, but what is TSS?

Update: Nevermind. Read the response from yesterday. Thanks!

TSS = TimeShare Store

 

[zavandor]

I'm really surprised SSR didn't fall into the "large drop" category.

I can see two reasons:
1) the nre refurbishment is very good, it went to be the one ith one of the worst decor to one of the best. This may increase a little bit the demand
2) when money are thighter, people may look more to the best bargain, and SSR still is

 

[lovethesun12]

I can see two reasons:
1) the nre refurbishment is very good, it went to be the one ith one of the worst decor to one of the best. This may increase a little bit the demand
2) when money are thighter, people may look more to the best bargain, and SSR still is

Yes I would agree with that for sure! I didn't mean because of the resort though, I meant because it seemed like people were getting lower prices there than usual and it *seemed* like the prices online were falling. But clearly I was wrong with those thoughts and didn't do the math on them =)

 

[Lorana]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30 and 5/15 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price is large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the actual sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels

Pending

……3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15



AKV 109 108 109 109

AUL 96 97 97 96

BLT 137 141 144 143

BCV 140 138 140 140

BWV 118 121 121 120

BRV 98 98 97 97

CCV 147 147 150 151

VGF 164 163 161 163

HH 75 76 75 78

OKW 93 93 93 92

POLY 146 146 146 146

SS 101 101 102 102

VB 71 67 67 67

Do we actually know if these averages account for the actual SELLING price, not the LISTED price? I don't ever seem to see Brokers adjusting their website for the listed price. Most of my resale contracts were bought for less than listed price, and when the listings went into "pending sale" the price listed never reflected the price I was actually paying/what the offer was accepted at.

 

[Lorana]

Yes I would agree with that for sure! I didn't mean because of the resort though, I meant because it seemed like people were getting lower prices there than usual and it *seemed* like the prices online were falling. But clearly I was wrong with those thoughts and didn't do the math on them =)

If you look at the data in our ROFR thread, prices are dropping. Maybe we're a unique microcosm, but given that resellers never update their listings to reflect the actual selling price of contracts, I'm not sure if the data points are reflecting LISTING prices or SELLING prices, which are two different things. It's certainly not in a broker's best interest to show dropping prices, and definitely in their best interest to keep prices as high as possible.

 

[CastAStone]

If you look at the data in our ROFR thread, prices are dropping. Maybe we're a unique microcosm, but given that resellers never update their listings to reflect the actual selling price of contracts, I'm not sure if the data points are reflecting LISTING prices or SELLING prices, which are two different things. It's certainly not in a broker's best interest to show dropping prices, and definitely in their best interest to keep prices as high as possible.

Pretty much anything you see in this thread that isn't coming from the ROFR thread is listed prices, because as has been established up thread, that's the only data available. The only exception is DVCResaleMarket's monthly publication of average selling prices, which you can find in their blog.

 

[lovethesun12]

If you look at the data in our ROFR thread, prices are dropping. Maybe we're a unique microcosm, but given that resellers never update their listings to reflect the actual selling price of contracts, I'm not sure if the data points are reflecting LISTING prices or SELLING prices, which are two different things. It's certainly not in a broker's best interest to show dropping prices, and definitely in their best interest to keep prices as high as possible.

Very true.

 

[MamaBear12]

Think I’ll score a 160-ish point AKV contract for $85/point in the next few months? I’m seeing some on the ROFR thread passed recently for $95.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Think I’ll score a 160-ish point AKV contract for $85/point in the next few months? I’m seeing some on the ROFR thread passed recently for $95.

Not if I get it first LOL! There's hardly an AKV out there - what's up with that?