ROFR Thread Oct to Dec 2020 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Winston Wolf]

Could you please reformat that with the link in post#1 so it can go on the list?

Nice name, BTW.. One of my favorite movies. "Pretty please, with sugar on top, reformat the ***g string!"

Hmm... I thought I had it right. Will go back and look.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Hmm... I thought I had it right. Will go back and look.

Reformatted:

Winston Wolf---$102-$23556-220-AKV-Oct-0/19, 0/20, 51/21, 220/22-INTL seller- sent 10/8

 

[ScubaCat]

Reformatted:

Winston Wolf---$105-$23556-220-AKV-Oct-0/19, 0/20, 51/21, 220/22-INTL seller- sent 10/8

Thanks!

Still love the name. Hah.

 

[striker1064]

But if the resale price gets too low, they’ll lose direct sale buyers who won’t want to pass up a great resale deal. So it helps them, and it helps DVC owners.

I bet 80+% of direct buyers have no idea the resale market is as robust as it is, or that it even exists at all. Disney certainly doesn't advertise it, why would they? Most direct buyers do so on impulse during their vacations and don't do any research. There's no evidence whatsoever to support that Disney ROFRs to keep a price floor, but they do seem to take everything below a certain price to prop their inventory as long as that resort is not in active sales.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Thanks!

Still love the name. Hah.

I solve problems...

 

[Lorana]

Then how would you explain Aulani? If someone were willing to sell me Aulani for $15/pt, I'm confident it would pass ROFR. Aulani consistently passes at below 1/2 the retail price. Last year, a broker bought a Riviera contract for $100/pt. Where was Disney in supporting those prices?

Disney only props up the market by virtue of buying things back to sell again, but they certainly aren't doing it to support prices as a service to members. The resale restrictions should make it abundantly clear where they stand with concerns around how "the value keeps up for owners."

Disney generally does not buy back resorts that are in active sales or just recently sold out.

 

[Lorana]

I bet 80+% of direct buyers have no idea the resale market is as robust as it is, or that it even exists at all. Disney certainly doesn't advertise it, why would they? Most direct buyers do so on impulse during their vacations and don't do any research. There's no evidence whatsoever to support that Disney ROFRs to keep a price floor, but they do seem to take everything below a certain price to prop their inventory as long as that resort is not in active sales.

So while I generally agree that Disney is taking low priced contracts to prop their inventory, I’m not sure I’d claim that there’s “no evidence whatsoever.” We don’t actually know the reasons that Disney buys back contracts, and it’s certainly true that Disney buys back enough low priced contracts against the resorts that the result is the price floor is kept at a decent price. It may not be their primary reason to buy back but it really wouldn’t surprise me if keeping their brand valuable is a calculation.

(I honestly think they care less about making resale prices higher beyond ensuring that the gap is not so large that no one would consider direct. I think instead they care far more about brand image, and a higher resale value contributes to the image that Disney DVC is something of real value to own).

 

[Dale-n-Chip]

PointeDVC---$98-$10475-100-OKW-Dec-0/19, 0/20, 100/21- sent 9/4, taken 10/8

Bummer, @PointeDVC. That does not bode well for my $83 210 pt contract I sent ten days later.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

I wonder if they're sitting on all these contracts to see what demand rolls in for the rumored blue card increase on 10/19. I don't believe they've officially announced it yet.

 

[Bing Showei]

Disney generally does not buy back resorts that are in active sales or just recently sold out.

I think this point is broadly understood.

The question is, “Why not?”

If your position is that Disney is interested in “preserving value” to the product, then it makes no sense that they would NOT support the resale price of an actively sold resort; especially on the Riviera where the future impact on value is front and center in their new timeshare offering.

So comments like these:

they need to crack the whip to ensure the value keeps up for owners, which is a good thing.

I genuinely think it is important that they maintain a high value.

are simply not supported by the fact that they don’t buy back actively sold resort. If the theory is that they are looking to support long-term value, why would they stand on an arbitrary policy of “not buying back resorts that are in active sales.” That would suggest that Disney would let a Riviera resale contract pass ROFR for well below $100/point because of its active sales status. A proposition far more damaging to the value theory.

This brings us back to the “why” it is that actively sold resorts aren’t bought back. The short answer is they already have a **** ton of points to sell. They’re not going to add to that balance sheet no matter how low the price.

The only value the developer cares about the consumer seeing is the value in buying direct over resale. The current regime sees addition by subtraction as a sound policy. Cripple the resale product to make the retail product more appealing. A policy for moving product that apparently works, but one that, if anything, sacrifices “brand value.”

 

[jbreen2010]

Does anyone know - does DVC usually process ROFRs say like once a day or something? Been waiting a while and wondering if I should be refreshing e-mails all afternoon or if they're released around 10am and then after that you will not hear.

 

[GuitarCarl]

Bummer, @PointeDVC. That does not bode well for my $83 210 pt contract I sent ten days later.

Nor my $85 230pt contract sent 9 days later!

 

[LucieR]

LucieR---$100-$15628-150-SSR-Dec-0/18, 0/19, 184/20, 150/21- sent 9/24

 

[Cabius]

I know we primarily focus on price, but has anybody even done an analysis on likelihood by loaded/standard/stripped contracts? i.e. are they more likely to take contracts if they have double-points, or less likely to take stripped contracts, adjusting for price?

 

[My3kids1989]

Does anyone know - does DVC usually process ROFRs say like once a day or something? Been waiting a while and wondering if I should be refreshing e-mails all afternoon or if they're released around 10am and then after that you will not hear.

Email your broker or title company. I was waiting then suddenly when I emailed they heard back...right lol

 

[striker1064]

I know we primarily focus on price, but has anybody even done an analysis on likelihood by loaded/standard/stripped contracts? i.e. are they more likely to take contracts if they have double-points, or less likely to take stripped contracts, adjusting for price?

Pre-pandemic it seemed much more likely for them to take stripped contracts. It makes sense, because they don't have to pay current year dues, and they can turn around and sell it direct as soon as the UY rolls over. No idea if that's still correlated, though.

 

[jbreen2010]

Reached out to our broker. They said they received no ROFR notifications back from DVC this week at all.

 

[Winston Wolf]

Reached out to our broker. They said they received no ROFR notifications back from DVC this week at all.

I have to imagine we're going to go into a period where it's going to take a lot longer for responses on ROFR from Disney due to the staff reductions.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I bet 80+% of direct buyers have no idea the resale market is as robust as it is, or that it even exists at all. Disney certainly doesn't advertise it, why would they? Most direct buyers do so on impulse during their vacations and don't do any research. There's no evidence whatsoever to support that Disney ROFRs to keep a price floor, but they do seem to take everything below a certain price to prop their inventory as long as that resort is not in active sales.

I’m not saying that Disney uses ROFR to maintain a price floor. I’m saying that the ROFR process helps establish a price floor, even if it’s not their motivation.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I bet 80+% of direct buyers have no idea the resale market is as robust as it is, or that it even exists at all. Disney certainly doesn't advertise it, why would they? Most direct buyers do so on impulse during their vacations and don't do any research. There's no evidence whatsoever to support that Disney ROFRs to keep a price floor, but they do seem to take everything below a certain price to prop their inventory as long as that resort is not in active sales.

I also think Disney does have a stake in resale prices not getting too low. If resale prices were half of what they are now, don’t you think that would hurt direct sales?