Poll: What will happen with Grand Floridian Resale prices?

[JGINPL]

Looks like great pricing on the new Grand Floridian remodel. What you guys think will happen to resale prices on the market currently? Do you see them dropping to sub 170?

 

[JGINPL]

I think these will drop a good amount. Will be interesting to watch the next few months.

 

[Sandisw]

I think anything from 150 and up will need to go to $150 range.

Below 150, in the 160s and 100 or lower 160s to low $170s.

With such a small difference, those who may benefit from unrestricted points and any membership extras that exist, direct makes sense.

 

[Sparky984]

Yes. Even without considering direct discounts, $170 is still only an 18% discount to have restricted points, deal with rofr and have to wait to get/use them. Most discounts to go resale are 20% or more, with grand Californian being the exception.

I suspect fair market value for Grand Floridian is somewhere closer to $160, BUT it may take a while to settle or advertise there because few sellers are going to drastically reduce the price quickly if it means they may leave money on the table.

 

[Marionnette]

I think small resale contracts (those below 150 points) will still be attractive to new members because they cannot buy fewer than 150 points. Even members looking for small add-on contracts might find it attractive to go resale since there are no incentives for anything smaller than 125 points and there are no 2021 points being included. But contracts 125+ will definitely take a serious hit on the resale market initially, rebound slightly as the dust settles and then take off once VGF2 sells out.

 

[kilik64]

Depending on the broker (looking at you board sponsor, id bet they own a lot of the vgf inventory they are selling...), could see some people just pull their listing vs dropping price if they were mostly motivated to sell from the relatively high value they were getting on the resale market.

Also agree about the 150 prime meridian, lower contracts will still go for closer to whatever the new base is (207 currently but sounds like that might rise by the end of this month even), since if you are a new buy and dont want or need 150 points, you could save a decent amount going resale.

Gonna be interesting to watch over the next few weeks.

 

[Dyefrog]

I think small resale contracts (those below 150 points) will still be attractive to new members because they cannot buy fewer than 150 points. Even members looking for small add-on contracts might find it attractive to go resale since there are no incentives for anything smaller than 125 points and there are no 2021 points being included. But contracts 125+ will definitely take a serious hit on the resale market initially, rebound slightly as the dust settles and then take off once VGF2 sells out.

Based on that, would you recommend breaking up a direct contract into 50,75,100 points if buying more than 200 points? Is the potential added value enough to cover the additional closing costs?

 

[nuhusky123]

id expect sold out direct prices to be $260+ when that time eventually comes

 

[Dyefrog]

Looks like great pricing on the new Grand Floridian remodel. What you guys think will happen to resale prices on the market currently? Do you see them dropping to sub 170?

And a follow up to this, how might it affect resales in other resorts? I'm not seeing a cascade of "reduced" on resellers websites.

 

[Marionnette]

Based on that, would you recommend breaking up a direct contract into 50,75,100 points if buying more than 200 points? Is the potential added value enough to cover the additional closing costs?

I might buy a 50 and 150 contract (to keep blue card membership) but I would not break a 200-point purchase into more than 2 contracts. I think closing costs for 3 or more contracts would negate any profits. I haven't done the math because, frankly, I already have enough VGF points and have no interest in quick flips.

 

[RoseGold]

There will always be people who need to sell now. It's in the divorce, bankruptcy, estate, whatever. That would not be a good position to be in right now, if you're selling BLT/Poly/VGF.

I bought VGF in the 150s peak Covid. I think even that is too high to get a contract moved right now. Real bummer if you bought VGF resale in the 170s, 180s, 190s in the last 1.5 years.

I guess we see what happens to these incentives. They're only through March 30, maybe after that, prices get hiked? If I were selling monorail, I'd hold off for a while if I could.

 

[RoseGold]

And a follow up to this, how might it affect resales in other resorts? I'm not seeing a cascade of "reduced" on resellers websites.

Boy would this be a tough day to be a resale broker. I guess they're going to have some uncomfortable phone calls about mom's stupid timeshare the estate just listed.

 

[Bjaiken77]

There will always be people who need to sell now. It's in the divorce, bankruptcy, estate, whatever. That would not be a good position to be in right now, if you're selling BLT/Poly/VGF.

I bought VGF in the 150s peak Covid. I think even that is too high to get a contract moved right now. Real bummer if you bought VGF resale in the 170s, 180s, 190s in the last 1.5 years.

I guess we see what happens to these incentives. They're only through March 30, maybe after that, prices get hiked? If I were selling monorail, I'd hold off for a while if I could.

I think you’re right. This is the introductory cost. Im not saying it’s good for VGF owners, but I think the price will rise over time.

 

[Marionnette]

And a follow up to this, how might it affect resales in other resorts? I'm not seeing a cascade of "reduced" on resellers websites.

Other resorts, except AUL and RIV, are sold out. Resale competes with whatever the base price DVC is selling the sold out resort for. So don't expect to see BWV or BCV drop in price. They're already being ROFR'd at BWV if the price is low enough.

 

[JGINPL]

And a follow up to this, how might it affect resales in other resorts? I'm not seeing a cascade of "reduced" on resellers websites.

Great question, I am wondering this as well.

 

[mousehouse23]

Would these incentives tend to lower demand for resale across other resorts, especially contracts with 150+points?

Just wondering how someone considering a 150 point resale Poly contract, for example, might not reconsider, and buy VGF direct instead....especially if they don't have a blue card yet.

 

[TT4Dis]

Would these incentives tend to lower demand for resale across other resorts, especially contracts with 150+points?

Just wondering how someone considering a 150 point resale Poly contract, for example, might not reconsider, and buy VGF direct instead....especially if they don't have a blue card yet.

I think this may have a slight ripple effect on all MK resorts. If I can get VGF resale for $155 a point I’m not going to pay $170 for Copper Creek.

 

[sethschroeder]

Would these incentives tend to lower demand for resale across other resorts, especially contracts with 150+points?

Just wondering how someone considering a 150 point resale Poly contract, for example, might not reconsider, and buy VGF direct instead....especially if they don't have a blue card yet.

Its all about price breakdown and when someone say its worth it to pay more for the blue card. I could impact it but aren't BLT/POLY resale already lower?

 

[Dyefrog]

Would these incentives tend to lower demand for resale across other resorts, especially contracts with 150+points?

Just wondering how someone considering a 150 point resale Poly contract, for example, might not reconsider, and buy VGF direct instead....especially if they don't have a blue card yet.

That's exactly the boat I'm in. I've delayed making any offers on resales until after this announcement on the small chance it could devalue a resale in a different resort. Copper Creek in my case.
Not being a current owner, I would only get the $17 reduction for a 200 point contract on 4/1/22 rather than the $21 reduction for current members today. It works out to around $6k more for the blue card which is tempting. Gotta make a stretch to justify it today (in value) but who knows down the road if I'd regret not getting it now as the minimums continue to creep up.

 

[Dyefrog]

I think this may have a slight ripple effect on all MK resorts. If I can get VGF resale for $155 a point I’m not going to pay $170 for Copper Creek.

And by the same token for those that want the blue card, I'm not paying $160 (that's closer to what resale 200's are going for) for CCV when I can get direct VGF for $190. CCV contract is only 4 years longer too.