The Intersection of FIRE and Disney

[dvcgirl67]

There's is no doubt the Fed will continue to inflate to oblivion, borrow from the future, print money out of thin air, and spend money we don't have. Were' seeing the effects of that now. Central banks will do whatever it takes to keep the debt market from imploding even create WW3 if they have to. They don't care if people die or suffer. None of it's sustainable we're headed for a massive global meltdown. 2023 will not be a good year.

Global recession in 2023...possible...maybe even probable. Massive global meltdown? What do you mean by that....all the economies of the world collapse? WWIII? Global Great Depression? Or, do mean something more akin to the Great Recession of 2008-09?

 

[RivShore]

There's is no doubt the Fed will continue to inflate to oblivion, borrow from the future, print money out of thin air, and spend money we don't have. Were' seeing the effects of that now. Central banks will do whatever it takes to keep the debt market from imploding even create WW3 if they have to. They don't care if people die or suffer. None of it's sustainable we're headed for a massive global meltdown. 2023 will not be a good year.

You realize people have been preaching such doom and gloom for decades and have been wrong every time. They were wrong during the dot com bust, wrong during the debt & housing bust, wrong during the covid downturn, etc., etc. And as the chart above shows, history is not on your side - every single market downturn has seen a recovery, every single one. Why do you think we are all so special to be living in such unique times?

 

[DCLMP]

Global recession in 2023...possible...maybe even probable. Massive global meltdown? What do you mean by that....all the economies of the world collapse? WWIII? Global Great Depression? Or, do mean something more akin to the Great Recession of 2008-09?

I guess well find out.

 

[DCLMP]

You realize people have been preaching such doom and gloom for decades and have been wrong every time. They were wrong during the dot com bust, wrong during the debt & housing bust, wrong during the covid downturn, etc., etc. And as the chart above shows, history is not on your side - every single market downturn has seen a recovery, every single one. Why do you think we are all so special to be living in such unique times?

We’ve recovered from a lot of things. It doesn’t mean people don’t suffer, die or lose everything. I don’t recall saying I was special, but I have every right to be concerned about the future of this country.

 

[piccolopat]

Thanks, but I don't watch the news. Mainstream news is nothing, but lies and propaganda. I have a pretty good idea of what's going on and have invested accordingly. I'm prepared for the debt market to implode, but most people are not. If the US dollar loses its reserve currency status we are all screwed. There is no way to sugarcoat that scenario.

Out of curiosity, if you don't watch the news to find out what is going on in the world, financially and otherwise, how do you learn about the things that should impact your investment decisions?

 

[DCLMP]

Out of curiosity, if you don't watch the news to find out what is going on in the world, financially and otherwise, how do you learn about the things that should impact your investment decisions?

Your joking right? Do you need to watch main stream media to follow the markets and what’s going on the world. That’s the the last place I’d go.

 

[piccolopat]

Your joking right? Do you need to watch main stream media to follow the markets and what’s going on the world. That’s the the last place I’d go.

I didn't say a person had to watch main stream media to follow the markets, etc. I was asking you what sources you use. Too much of today's media is slanted one way or another and it is sometimes hard to determine where the real truth lies. If you've found that, I'd like to know.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Your joking right? Do you need to watch main stream media to follow the markets and what’s going on the world. That’s the the last place I’d go.

I mean, you need to get news from somewhere if you're talking about "what's going on in the world." You can't figure that out by looking out your window.

Personally, I don't follow the markets very closely because my view is long term. Pretty much all market news is day to day and that's not my investing strategy.

Tomorrow is spreadsheet day for us. Fingers crossed that we were at least flat this quarter.

 

[DCLMP]

I mean, you need to get news from somewhere if you're talking about "what's going on in the world." You can't figure that out by looking out your window.

Personally, I don't follow the markets very closely because my view is long term. Pretty much all market news is day to day and that's not my investing strategy.

Tomorrow is spreadsheet day for us. Fingers crossed that we were at least flat this quarter.

Of course theres a million news sources. I think I clarified that statement by saying mainstream. I assume everyone knows what qualifies as mainstream. If I want to be lied too or see what narrative they’re pushing then sure I’ll turn on CNN or Fox.

 

[DCLMP]

I didn't say a person had to watch main stream media to follow the markets, etc. I was asking you what sources you use. Too much of today's media is slanted one way or another and it is sometimes hard to determine where the real truth lies. If you've found that, I'd like to know.

The problem is if you question anything these days your labeled conspiratorial. So much is censored. it’s not easy to get to the truth especially with what’s going on in Ukraine. This economic war were in is fascinating though if you really take the time to research what’s going on. I’ve invested in a way I think will preserve what I have for what I think will happen, but that’s the best I can do. Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

 

[amylevan]

Of course theres a million news sources. I think I clarified that statement by saying mainstream. I assume everyone knows what qualifies as mainstream. If I want to be lied too or see what narrative they’re pushing then sure I’ll turn on CNN or Fox.

I think the point was, even non-mainstream media can be slanted or have an agenda. Very little media doesnt.

 

[dvcgirl67]

The problem is if you question anything these days your labeled conspiratorial. So much is censored. it’s not easy to get to the truth especially with what’s going on in Ukraine. This economic war were in is fascinating though if you really take the time to research what’s going on. I’ve invested in a way I think will preserve what I have for what I think will happen, but that’s the best I can do. Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

People are labeled conspiratorial when they sound like conspiracy theorists. When they call everyone else naive because they aren't smart enough to see what's coming.

As others have mentioned, those of us who have been working, saving and investing for 30+ years have seen a lot of ups and downs in markets. During those down periods there has been plenty of suffering and loss. There's no reason in my mind to sort of "up the ante" on doom these days....there's plenty to go around. The stock market has persevered and grown through a Great Depression, World Wars, Pandemics and too many recessions, bear markets, crashes and banking crises to list. It always comes back. I always keep that in mind as I continue to work, save and invest our money in a low cost index funds in a ratio of stock/bond funds that allows me to sleep at night. I'm not going to climb a wall of worry until I end up in the basement surrounded by PVC buckets filled with freeze dried food with a portfolio of gold, silver and bitcoin.

 

[cjlong88]

Your joking right? Do you need to watch main stream media to follow the markets and what’s going on the world. That’s the the last place I’d go.

Can you please tell us exactly where you go to get your news and how you determine those sources to be unbiased?

 

[dvcgirl67]

I think the point was, even non-mainstream media can be slanted or have an agenda. Very little media doesnt.

Exactly....we all know this. Most of us know how to consume the news these days...with a bit of skepticism at times, especially when watching "opinion news" channels. Or when watching financial news...because you always need to think what angle the person delivering their thoughts may have...etc.

 

[RivShore]

People are labeled conspiratorial when they sound like conspiracy theorists. When they call everyone else naive because they aren't smart enough to see what's coming.

As others have mentioned, those of us who have been working, saving and investing for 30+ years have seen a lot of ups and downs in markets. During those down periods there has been plenty of suffering and loss. There's no reason in my mind to sort of "up the ante" on doom these days....there's plenty to go around. The stock market has persevered and grown through a Great Depression, World Wars, Pandemics and too many recessions, bear markets, crashes and banking crises to list. It always comes back. I always keep that in mind as I continue to work, save and invest our money in a low cost index funds in a ratio of stock/bond funds that allows me to sleep at night. I'm not going to climb a wall of worry until I end up in the basement surrounded by PVC buckets filled with freeze dried food with a portfolio of gold, silver and bitcoin.

Very well put!! Though I think some form of gold, silver and maybe bitcoin (depending on your risk tolerance) should be a small part of a well rounded portfolio.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Can you please tell us exactly where you go to get your news and how you determine those sources to be unbiased?

Very well put!! Though I think some form of gold, silver and maybe bitcoin (depending on your risk tolerance) should be a small part of a well rounded portfolio.

As a hedge…sure. We’re still 4-6 years away from retirement so we’ve been building above our normal 5% cash position. Planning to build that to 10%…but we’re not afraid to deploy that aggressively if we do end up in a recession/bear market environment. By aggressive…mean VTSAX.

 

[DCLMP]

People are labeled conspiratorial when they sound like conspiracy theorists. When they call everyone else naive because they aren't smart enough to see what's coming.

As others have mentioned, those of us who have been working, saving and investing for 30+ years have seen a lot of ups and downs in markets. During those down periods there has been plenty of suffering and loss. There's no reason in my mind to sort of "up the ante" on doom these days....there's plenty to go around. The stock market has persevered and grown through a Great Depression, World Wars, Pandemics and too many recessions, bear markets, crashes and banking crises to list. It always comes back. I always keep that in mind as I continue to work, save and invest our money in a low cost index funds in a ratio of stock/bond funds that allows me to sleep at night. I'm not going to climb a wall of worry until I end up in the basement surrounded by PVC buckets filled with freeze dried food with a portfolio of gold, silver and bitcoin.

Sorry naive was a bad choice of words and I apologize. I should not have said that. I get frustrated and angry about the way things are going right now. People do get called conspiracy theorists when they don't go along with the consensus. It is a way to try to discredit them, but many times as we've seen lately they end up being right.

Yes there's been a lot of ups and downs and eventually, we recover in some form, but that doesn't make the loss any less difficult. I feel like this time is going to be really rough. Everything you say not to do is something I think should be a part of everyone's portfolio, not the whole portfolio, but part of it. You got to do whatever helps you sleep at night.

The thing that scares me most about major depression is civil unrest and our safety. People are kind of nuts right now and we are such a divided country. I live in a pretty nice middle to upper-middle-class community, but crime is getting ridiculous. We've got homeless people sleeping under bridges on our golf course. I can only see this getting worse as the economy declines. I'm sure there are already a lot of lower-income families having trouble making ends meet and it's only going to get worse. Most people I know are cutting back on discretionary spending.

Housing prices in our area are disproportional to incomes again. In 2009 our city looked like some kind of apocalyptic, dystopian movie with all the foreclosures. It seems like everyone I know used their house as an atm machine over the last couple of years. I can't see that ending well for them, but people don't learn.

 

[RivShore]

Housing prices in our area are disproportional to incomes again. In 2009 our city looked like some kind of apocalyptic, dystopian movie with all the foreclosures. It seems like everyone I know used their house as an atm machine over the last couple of years. I can't see that ending well for them, but people don't learn.

I know the old, "things are different this time", will usually come back and bite but things are really very different this time - less than 5% of mortgages are currently under water, back in 2008-09 it was closer to 40%, a gigantic difference that leaves plenty of room for a correction. There's a similar cushion in the job market that should soften any impacts there too - 11M job openings, theoretically, those open positions would get axed before the grim reaper comes for actual living breathing workers.

Yes there's been a lot of ups and downs and eventually, we recover in some form, but that doesn't make the loss any less difficult. I feel like this time is going to be really rough.

One thing I have noticed with the up and downs of the market and economy - everything is at hyper speed now- the market shoots up quickly, corrects quickly, and then recovers quickly. I don't know if it's technology, the globalness of the market, trading algorithms or a combination of everything, but the markets move at great speed now. Same with the economy, the last few recessions have been super quick by historical standards. That gives me some hope that whatever happens will be quick.

The thing that scares me most about major depression is civil unrest and our safety. People are kind of nuts right now and we are such a divided country

This is something that concerns me too, and I partly blame the advent of social media for amping up the divisions and making it so easy for like minded "nuts" to connect and wreak havoc where, in the past, their paths would probably never have crossed (and this is now a super easy way for hostile countries to stir up the populace without ever needing a spy to set foot in the county).

Now I have gone and depressed myself...can I join you in your bunker DCLMP? LOL

 

[DCLMP]

I know the old, "things are different this time", will usually come back and bite but things are really very different this time - less than 5% of mortgages are currently under water, back in 2008-09 it was closer to 40%, a gigantic difference that leaves plenty of room for a correction. There's a similar cushion in the job market that should soften any impacts there too - 11M job openings, theoretically, those open positions would get axed before the grim reaper comes for actual living breathing workers.


One thing I have noticed with the up and downs of the market and economy - everything is at hyper speed now- the market shoots up quickly, corrects quickly, and then recovers quickly. I don't know if it's technology, the globalness of the market, trading algorithms or a combination of everything, but the markets move at great speed now. Same with the economy, the last few recessions have been super quick by historical standards. That gives me some hope that whatever happens will be quick.

This is something that concerns me too, and I partly blame the advent of social media for amping up the divisions and making it so easy for like minded "nuts" to connect and wreak havoc where, in the past, their paths would probably never have crossed (and this is now a super easy way for hostile countries to stir up the populace without ever needing a spy to set foot in the county).

Now I have gone and depressed myself...can I join you in your bunker DCLMP? LOL

They weren't underwater back in 2006 either. If housing prices crash some people will be underwater. None of that matters inflation is the problem this time around. People are going to have trouble paying their bills if 50% of their income is going to food and energy. We are a debt based economy. The fed cannot raise interest rates enough to combat inflation or everything will collaspe. So they'll try to inflate away the debt. Will it work?

Russia raised interests rate 20 points. The ruble is now back to pre invasion levels,. Russia has a trade surplus. They have gold. Their debt ratio to GDP is only about 18% where ours is near 150%. They may back thier Ruble in Gold. Russia is not going to be selling their oil for the USD petro dollar anymore and that is a big deal. Where does China, India and Saudi fit in with all this? Things are changing.

 

[RivShore]

They weren't underwater back in 2006 either. If housing prices crash some people will be underwater. None of that matters inflation is the problem this time around. People are going to have trouble paying their bills if 50% of their income is going to food and energy. We are a debt based economy. The fed cannot raise interest rates enough to combat inflation or everything will collaspe. So they'll try to inflate away the debt. Will it work?

Russia raised interests rate 20 points. The ruble is now back to pre invasion levels,. Russia has a trade surplus. They have gold. Their debt ratio to GDP is only about 18% where ours is near 150%. They may back thier Ruble in Gold. Russia is not going to be selling their oil for the USD petro dollar anymore and that is a big deal. Where does China, India and Saudi fit in with all this? Things are changing.

But most of the housing dept is at an extremely low fixed rate this time so you get to keep making the same dollar payment on your house with dollars that are worth less - that sounds like a net positive to me. As long as you stay employed that is.

I would not make any comparisopns to the Russian economy it is a mess and has always been a mess. There are no replacements to the USD on the near or midterm horizon. After the invasion, no one will trust China or Russian fiat currency. Maybe a cypto takes over at some point in the distant future but that's about it.