WOW DVC Prices !!!

[DonMacGregor]

I think it is mostly from shock because gas prices will spike 10-20% overnight, and then take 6 months to drop the same amount a 1% a month. Even though the price per barrel has dropped significantly.

People just need to buy solar panels for their houses and buy EV's......

For Californians, in the fall they say our gas prices are going up because they are switching to winter blend, then in the spring they say prices are going up because they are switching to summer blend...

 

[Johtull12]

Find a contract with double ‘23 points and rent them all out that first year and you’ll already be well under $125/pt

Just did that. Will I have the willpower to follow through with it ...prob not. In the end 1$50, $140 or $120 it's a few grand over 40 plus years.

 

[Brian Noble]

It's one thing to compare the cost of DVC vs the cost of staying on property. It's quite another to compare the cost of DVC vs staying off property.

Absolutely true. I am one of those heathens that stays offsite sometimes, even for a Disney vacation. I always have. Many of those places are equal to (or better than) Disney's resorts in isolation. But Disney's Reality Distortion Field is nearly unprecedented, and the resorts don't exist in isolation. People believe that it makes a difference, and because perception is reality, it does. Heck, I'm not sure the benefits of being onsite have ever objectively justified the price premium, and I've been going to WDW for a minute.

Subjectively? An entirely different ballgame. And part of that subjective experience is sometimes referred to as "the bubble." The idea that you enter those gates once, and don't see them again until your vacation is over, is a powerful one.

Honestly, I've stopped trying to convince people that offsite stays can be just as wonderful, despite the fact that has been my experience over many years. More often than not, people tell me I must be wrong, despite the fact that they've never tried it.

Even moreso, compare the cost of DVC to not going to WDW on a regular basis.

I'm less sure about this one---at least, assuming you replace the DVC trips with other vacations. Some of our vacations are definitely less expensive. Others are comparable or even more, depending on where we are going and what we are doing.

WDW was a more attractive product even just a few years ago.

Maybe, though I think at least some of this for me is that familiarity breeds contempt. But even so: people are not deciding between going to WDW now and going to WDW in 2018. They are deciding between going to WDW now, or doing something else now. WDW still holds its own there.

Egg prices [...] Gas prices

I've always been struck by how important these things are in the popular press and consumer psychology, vs. their actual impact on total day-to-day expenses. But, that's another conversation for a different board.

 

[Chy]

Absolutely true. I am one of those heathens that stays offsite sometimes, even for a Disney vacation. I always have. Many of those places are equal to (or better than) Disney's resorts in isolation. But Disney's Reality Distortion Field is nearly unprecedented, and the resorts don't exist in isolation. People believe that it makes a difference, and because perception is reality, it does. Heck, I'm not sure the benefits of being onsite have ever objectively justified the price premium, and I've been going to WDW for a minute.

Subjectively? An entirely different ballgame. And part of that subjective experience is sometimes referred to as "the bubble." The idea that you enter those gates once, and don't see them again until your vacation is over, is a powerful one.

Honestly, I've stopped trying to convince people that offsite stays can be just as wonderful, despite the fact that has been my experience over many years. More often than not, people tell me I must be wrong, despite the fact that they've never tried it.


I'm less sure about this one---at least, assuming you replace the DVC trips with other vacations. Some of our vacations are definitely less expensive. Others are comparable or even more, depending on where we are going and what we are doing.


Maybe, though I think at least some of this for me is that familiarity breeds contempt. But even so: people are not deciding between going to WDW now and going to WDW in 2018. They are deciding between going to WDW now, or doing something else now. WDW still holds its own there.


I've always been struck by how important these things are in the popular press and consumer psychology, vs. their actual impact on total day-to-day expenses. But, that's another conversation for a different board.

I think you make a lot of good points, but I think a lot of the onsite vs. offsite comes down to what you are comparing. Coronado springs vs. an offsite Hyatt? I agree it's pretty close.

But Boardwalk view at the Boardwalk vs. anything offsite? Nothing else really compares. There's massive convenience and pleasantness factors. Also, the extra hours at nights have been huge for us and really enjoyable. I've done offsite and the difference between loading up kids in the car, driving, unloading, and then walking across a huge parking lot compared to just walking out of a resort to a park and walking home along lovely paths is just not even close. It's objectively better, and renting points can make it even CHEAPER than offsite. 7 nights rented DVC points pre-Christmas is under $2k for boardwalk, offsite is not cheaper than this and Boardwalk is way better.

 

[Brian Noble]

Boardwalk view at the Boardwalk vs. anything offsite? Nothing else really compares.

Of course you can compare them. A quality offsite place costs $X, and BWV costs $Y. $Y is significantly more than $X. The question is: is that location worth $(Y-X)?

The answer is: Not always, and certainly not for everyone. And that's before you consider that the offsite place is probably a 2BR timeshare, because they are not that much more expensive than a quality offsite hotel room.

I've stayed in a bunch of DVC resorts (BCV, BLT, BRV, BWV, OKW, and SSR). I've also stayed in several of the better offsite resorts. The Disney resorts have some advantages, for sure. But in my experience my offsite stays also delivered great vacation experiences. For most people, the offsite vacation also leaves a lot of money in their pockets.

Edited to add: I will caveat this by saying we drive to the parks most of the time whether we are staying on-property or not. The exception is MK, but even then we will drive maybe once a trip to take the ferry across.

 

[beldred]

Edited to add: I will caveat this by saying we drive to the parks most of the time whether we are staying on-property or not. The exception is MK, but even then we will drive maybe once a trip to take the ferry across.

This definitely is coloring your opinion of off-site being as good as on-site. For someone who flies in and doesn't rent a car, Disney's convenient, easy, free, and near-constant transportation is important, and definitely worth more than saving a few hundred bucks to stay offsite.

 

[Brian Noble]

For sure. That's why I made sure to point it out. If you absolutely do not want to drive, there is no substitute for being onsite. The financial value of it is a little lower than it once was without Magical Express, but if it is "I do not want to drive there" then the money isn't an issue.

[I'd take issue with "a few hundred bucks" but that may be because we more or less insist on larger villas, and so it's more subtle.]

 

[E2ME2]

Of course you can compare them. A quality offsite place costs $X, and BWV costs $Y. $Y is significantly more than $X. The question is: is that location worth $(Y-X)?

The answer is: Not always, and certainly not for everyone. And that's before you consider that the offsite place is probably a 2BR timeshare, because they are not that much more expensive than a quality offsite hotel room.

I've stayed in a bunch of DVC resorts (BCV, BLT, BRV, BWV, OKW, and SSR). I've also stayed in several of the better offsite resorts. The Disney resorts have some advantages, for sure. But in my experience my offsite stays also delivered great vacation experiences. For most people, the offsite vacation also leaves a lot of money in their pockets.

Edited to add: I will caveat this by saying we drive to the parks most of the time whether we are staying on-property or not. The exception is MK, but even then we will drive maybe once a trip to take the ferry across.

10 years of exclusively staying in the bubble, until 2021, and we stayed offsite at USO and SWOLPHIN and DRURY. The costs of all of those exceeded my DVC $/Night by far, plus parking, higher food prices, longer commute to parks….
I was so happy to stay back in the bubble in 2022 & 2023. So, in my comparison, DVC still wins.

 

[Brian Noble]

Yeah, this is exactly why I rarely have this conversation.

 

[elaine amj]

I think you make a lot of good points, but I think a lot of the onsite vs. offsite comes down to what you are comparing. Coronado springs vs. an offsite Hyatt? I agree it's pretty close.

But Boardwalk view at the Boardwalk vs. anything offsite? Nothing else really compares. There's massive convenience and pleasantness factors. Also, the extra hours at nights have been huge for us and really enjoyable. I've done offsite and the difference between loading up kids in the car, driving, unloading, and then walking across a huge parking lot compared to just walking out of a resort to a park and walking home along lovely paths is just not even close. It's objectively better, and renting points can make it even CHEAPER than offsite. 7 nights rented DVC points pre-Christmas is under $2k for boardwalk, offsite is not cheaper than this and Boardwalk is way better.

I have stayed onsite for 10+ years and for the last year, started staying in condos offsite.

The week before Christmas in 2022, we rented a gorgeous 2 bedroom condo at Sheraton Vistana Resort, basically a 10 min or so drive to all the parks. For $600.

With the $1400 savings, we ate dinner at Beaches and Cream and strolled into the International Gateway. Breakfast was at Ale & Compass with the same short walk. When we wanted to do rides at the front, we drive to the parking lot and walk 5-10 mins to Guardians (instead of 20 mins from the Boardwalk).

I am totally hooked on driving to the parks now. Even driving to MK is better than a bus IMO. No more 1+hr waits for a packed bus at the end of the night - woot! The ferry lines occasionally get long but we’ve never waited an hour. If it’s a super busy day, I book a nice dinner at Steakhouse 71 and we stroll back to our car.

 

[Cfabar1]

My view, personally, is there is a big difference between staying on property at a monorail resort or a resort that is walkable to at least one park, and staying anywhere else. Animal Kingdom is also an exception, despite the lack of walkability because it has an actual savannah!!!

I will obtain some hate for saying this, but somewhere I have to drive to by necessity, or pray that it is the one day it isn't raining in the afternoon in CFL and that the Skyliner is running... that takes away the magic for me... Not having to get in the car is where the magic is for me.... So to me, a stay at SSR, OKW, etc. is no different from staying at an off-site resort like the Hyatt, JW Marriott, etc.

 

[Stank]

Sshhh, don’t point out that DVC prices have fallen, and suggest they’ll fall further; some aren’t too happy to hear it.

Meanwhile, BLT $100. Let’s go!!!!

 

[Stank]

Different than when the parks (worldwide) were completely shut down with no end in sight and we had record unemployment? There may be some rough sledding ahead with the economy but that was truly a black swan event with much bleaker prospects.

No way, that was a few weeks of panic. I bought my house the week before the tidal wave in the real estate market frenzy arrived; early May 2020. Literally the last train to leave the station before the massive dogpile into real estate that took off mid-May 2020.

Back in late March-April 2020, you did have a sharp rise in weekly unemployment, the most dramatic ever and likely ever again. However, it was met with stimulus checks and employment quickly rebounded. It was the most abbreviated recession of all time.

This recession we’re in right now (no, not the one people think May or may not be coming, but the one that we are in right now) is going to mutate into a depression.

How do I know this? Interest rates are rising and inflation isn’t blinking a bit. And the inflation is compounding—I laugh at the idea people think inflation will go away promptly…guys, we had over 3% inflation every year from 1966 to 1986. It takes decades to quench it. Meanwhile, it’s compounding; going back to 2% isn’t going to make it better—that’s 2% ON TOP of the already inflation! We need DEFLATION. Not the Orwellian termed “disinflation” otherwise known as weight gain at a slower pace pitched as weight loss.

 

[mz-s]

I never expected that when my wife and I decided to buy DVC and join this forum, I'd get lectured every day about Keynesian economics... lots of Nostradamuses here it seems.

 

[Sandisw]

Sshhh, don’t point out that DVC prices have fallen, and suggest they’ll fall further; some aren’t too happy to hear it.

Meanwhile, BLT $100. Let’s go!!!!

Someone has posted thst DVD has recently ROFRd two BLT contracts around the $120 mark..from reviewing the OCC site.

So, they may be the thorn that prevents that from happening. We shall see

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Someone has posted thst DVD has recently ROFRd two BLT contracts around the $120 mark..from reviewing the OCC site.

So, they may be the thorn that prevents that from happening. We shall see

The problem is they can only do that for so long. Just too much inventory to start ROFR’ing all the low offers.

 

[mz-s]

The problem is they can only do that for so long. Just too much inventory to start ROFR’ing all the low offers.

They don't really need to ROFR everything - a rising tide lifts all boats.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

They don't really need to ROFR everything - a rising tide lifts all boats.

???

 

[E2ME2]

They don't really need to ROFR everything - a rising tide lifts all boats.

Yuup - Russian Roulette is a lot riskier with only one bullet in the gun, than it is with no bullets. This might start giving pause to the precipitous price drops.

 

[mz-s]

???

If Disney just ROFR'ed two BLT contracts at $120, you'd be silly to offer $120 for a contract. So there's the new floor.