Crowd Outlook

[Aluminum Falcon]

Could the "lower" crowds be a result of locals feeling frustrated with WDW for whatever reason (cost, less benefits, no trams, weather, etc.) and electing not to attend parks?

I am not a Florida local, but I have to believe that locals constitute "butts in the seats" and "feet on the ground" too, sort of speak.

i read somewhere a long while ago that WDW is 80% tourists, and 20% locals, where DL is the inverse. With that being said, it would take a substantial percentage of the local population not going to cause the kind of drop we're seeing, so i would doubt that, but anything is possible

 

[Pinnochio]

We are paying $419/night at the Beach Club for 9 nights at the end of this month. To me, the BC price is a steal.

that price is a steal

 

[DLgal]

that price is a steal

It was slightly better than the Disney Visa 35% discount offer. This is the military discount, and it came in at 40%, even though according to "the internet", the maximum discount is no longer 40%. The CM I spoke to while making the reservation was so excited to get me the best deal. It was like a game for her. I'm grateful that we are still eligible for this discount as my husband recently retired from active duty.

 

[Jrb1979]

cost is hard to qualify in this situation, most things in the service sector have gone up substantially. It seems like people on this thread target Disney specifically because it obviously impacts them and their vacation plans directly.

Speaking in generalities here, but people spoke about Universal wiping the floor with Disney because of pricing not too long ago. Now because tourism is down, people lump Universal and Disney together for price gouging. it just seems like an argument of convenience

A lot of Universal's attendance goes along with how Disney does. Universal for most is an add-on to their Disney vacation. All the price increases when you add in Genie+ now IMO has caught up to them. There is a reason travel is up yet WDW is down 23% this quarter.

 

[ChipnDale79]

A lot of Universal's attendance goes along with how Disney does. Universal for most is an add-on to their Disney vacation. All the price increases when you add in Genie+ now IMO has caught up to them. There is a reason travel is up yet WDW is down 23% this quarter.

there are a lot of reasons, but there have been so many people over the past few years that have said "i'm done with disney" every time a new price increase or add on comes out. IMO Disney trips take time to budget and plan for, so you may not see the effects of those "i'm done" folks for a bit. I dont think there is any question its had some sort of effect.

I know for us, or trips have slowed down and are shorter than they used to be. Part of it is because i have 2 disney adults that arent even teenagers yet, and that's ballooned the cost of our trips, and the overall experience is no where near what it used to be.

Add to the mix with the disgusting state of Government in FL, some people just refuse to step foot in the state.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

A lot of Universal's attendance goes along with how Disney does. Universal for most is an add-on to their Disney vacation. All the price increases when you add in Genie+ now IMO has caught up to them. There is a reason travel is up yet WDW is down 23% this quarter.

i agree that there must be a reason i just don't necessarily believe it to be price driven. Travel is up about 19%, and hotels are up 15% since the prior to the pandemic beginning.

Has anyone crunched the numbers or seen them published anywhere on Disney to compare to the overall travel and leisure market?

 

[Jrb1979]

i agree that there must be a reason i just don't necessarily believe it to be price driven. Travel is up about 19%, and hotels are up 15% since the prior to the pandemic beginning.

Has anyone crunched the numbers or seen them published anywhere on Disney to compare to the overall travel and leisure market?

Price is only part of the reason. Another is all that pent up demand is ending now that most have caught up on trips they had cancelled. IMO a big one that no one talks about is people are finding other places to visit they never thought of visiting before.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Price is only part of the reason. Another is all that pent up demand is ending now that most have caught up on trips they had cancelled. IMO a big one that no one talks about is people are finding other places to visit they never thought of visiting before.

I don't disagree about pent up demand, but knowing that the travel market is up across the country is making me rethink that. If pent up demand was really diminishing, the whole market would be affected and it clearly isn't. IMO the water is more and more murky around why central Florida in particular is dragging behind the rest of the country

 

[Brian Noble]

could the nintendo bump have caused a slump around the other parks.

Maybe, but the leverage is in the wrong direction: DLR pulled almost 26M in 2022 (DLR 16.9M, DCA 9M). USH was 8.4M, or only about 1/3. There also isn't an eyeball-obvious discontinuous drop at DLR that coincides with the USH opening. There's also the fact that they are on the opposite ends of the world, traffic-wise. From my son's perspective in Westwood, Anaheim may as well be in Arizona.

SFMM was sharply up, but those numbers are odd so I did not include them the first go-round. There's no good reason why Magic Mountain and Knotts would be moving in opposite directions. Their new single-rail is cool, but it is not that cool.

SWSD was down in May, but that's partly due to their new coaster in June.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Maybe, but the leverage is in the wrong direction: DLR pulled almost 26M in 2022 (DLR 16.9M, DCA 9M). USH was 8.4M, or only about 1/3. There also isn't an eyeball-obvious discontinuous drop at DLR that coincides with the USH opening. There's also the fact that they are on the opposite ends of the world, traffic-wise. From my son's perspective in Westwood, Anaheim may as well be in Arizona.

SFMM was sharply up, but those numbers are odd so I did not include them the first go-round. There's no good reason why Magic Mountain and Knotts would be moving in opposite directions. Their new single-rail is cool, but it is not that cool.

SWSD was down in May, but that's partly due to their new coaster in June.

interesting, it's just hard to extrapolate anything specific from that information, nothing is moving in an obvious direction

 

[ChipnDale79]

Price is only part of the reason. Another is all that pent up demand is ending now that most have caught up on trips they had cancelled. IMO a big one that no one talks about is people are finding other places to visit they never thought of visiting before.

also no more covid checks...many people used those on vacations. those are gone.

 

[Kerry1957]

Add to the mix with the disgusting state of Government in FL, some people just refuse to step foot in the state.

I do think that there is a bit of that going on, but I'm not sure about the net effect. On the opposite political spectrum, some folks are vacationing in Florida, but boycotting Disney. How much is anecdotal and how much is real is hard to tell.

Disney could be impacted by both fringes; the far left won't set foot in Florida (thus skipping Disney as well), and the far right will go to Florida but not to Disney.

I live in Illinois and people are both moving in and moving out due to recent decisions regarding abortion and LGBQT issues. Are the number of people moving really enough to have any general impact at all? I think we have a long way to go (and will hopefully not happen) before states start to turn more red and more blue and less purple.

 

[Jrb1979]

also no more covid checks...many people used those on vacations. those are gone.

The weird thing is travel is up yet Disney and Universal are down. My guess is people are opting for cheaper options right now.

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

The weird thing is travel is up yet Disney and Universal are down. My guess is people are opting for cheaper options right now.

Don't agree. Sure Disney and universal are pricey but so are europe vacations, cruises, and so much else that is not down. Cruises are bursting at the seams, prices are high for them to because demand is so high.

 

[Jrb1979]

Don't agree. Sure Disney and universal are pricey but so are europe vacations, cruises, and so much else that is not down. Cruises are bursting at the seams, prices are high for them to because demand is so high.

If that's the case then why are people avoiding Disney and Universal?

 

[RivShore]

If that's the case then why are people avoiding Disney and Universal?

I said this on the 2nd page of the other, similar thread and unless there's some other stuff going on in the economy (not out of the relm of possiblity with interst rate increases and recession fears), I think its still a decent explanation:

Orlando was the go to vacation for many for all of Covid times, now that the rest of the world is open, people will opt for all the vacations they missed out on for the last 3 years. Once they get that out of their system over the next year or two, we will settle back into pre-covid vacation patterns.

 

[Jrb1979]

I said this on the 2nd page of the other, similar thread and unless there's some other stuff going on in the economy (not out of the relm of possiblity with interst rate increases and recession fears), I think its still a decent explanation:

My other thought is maybe people are opting to wait for Epic Universe to open. Cause other than Tiana opening there isn't anything big attraction wise coming for Disney or Universal til Epic Universe opens

 

[Brian Noble]

I think US-fueled international travel is a big part of it. The last few pandemic barriers for international travel were lifted only recently, and it is reportedly booming. The demand for new US passports has gone up so much that State has started doing "pop up" events to process them.

What's interesting is that the reverse has not happened just yet--last I saw, international travel to Orlando was still down.

 

[RivShore]

I think US-fueled international travel is a big part of it. The last few pandemic barriers for international travel were lifted only recently, and it is reportedly booming. The demand for new US passports has gone up so much that State has started doing "pop up" events to process them.

What's interesting is that the reverse has not happened just yet--last I saw, international travel to Orlando was still down.

Recently (as in the last few weeks) it seems that South America is returning to the parks. But it is surprising that the reverse is not happening in a big way. Maybe inflation is impacting their travel plans more?

 

[RivShore]

My other thought is maybe people are opting to wait for Epic Universe to open. Cause other than Tiana opening there isn't anything big attraction wise coming for Disney or Universal til Epic Universe opens

That's possible but I don't think its a big number. People are in the habit of a once every year or two trip to WDW/UO and they won't put that off for an extended period just for a few new rides/park. Put it off for 6 months, maybe, put it off for two years, probably not.