Poll: Has the 2042 Bubble Burst?

Has the 2042 DVC Bubble Burst?

  • Yes

    Votes: 44 32.4%
  • No

    Votes: 92 67.6%

  • Total voters
    136
I counter that both of those properties should still have a slightly positive value so long as their annual dues are less than the cost of renting points at the seven month mark. I’m not saying they will be great SAPs, but if renting points cost you 25/point in 2025, and their dues are less than 20/point, they are still worth a few bucks per remaining use year.
The broker fees can cut into that further though unless you rent privately. Also I could’ve sworn DVC rental store at most gives you like 18 per point and cops the rest? Please correct me if I’m wrong about this. I don’t think they’re worthless yet, but at this point I do think the risk is far greater than the upside of owning at VB/HHI.
 
The broker fees can cut into that further though unless you rent privately. Also I could’ve sworn DVC rental store at most gives you like 18 per point and cops the rest? Please correct me if I’m wrong about this. I don’t think they’re worthless yet, but at this point I do think the risk is far greater than the upside of owning at VB/HHI.
I should have clarified that I meant some value *for people who intend to actually blow them all on personal use for 1 bedrooms at BWV and BCV* —broker fees will absolutely eat into the margin. 😋

And even still, I bought BCV recently in part because I think it may become very difficult to book even the less desirable rooms around crescent lake at 7m as we get closer to expiration. So not sure how much value VB/HHI would have even as SAP 10 years from now.
 
It is getting to the point where the maintenance fees will exceed the cash price for this resort. If and when that happens you are going to be holding on to a DVC timeshare that is worthless regardless of how many years are left on the contract.
At what point is it going to be more beneficial to hold the contract to term and rent points out vs attempting to sell?
Yes, i'm thinking that is the best strategy when getting to end of contract.

I think we're at that point with Vero Beach. If I owned VB I'd be dumping it before it's too late. HH is not far behind. VB dues are going to surpass rental rates for points pretty soon.
Yikes that is scary to think about.
 
I should have clarified that I meant some value *for people who intend to actually blow them all on personal use for 1 bedrooms at BWV and BCV* —broker fees will absolutely eat into the margin. 😋

And even still, I bought BCV recently in part because I think it may become very difficult to book even the less desirable rooms around crescent lake at 7m as we get closer to expiration. So not sure how much value VB/HHI would have even as SAP 10 years from now.
The problem with holding on to those VB/HH contracts is that if you decide you are done with DVC you may not be able to unload them for any price especially if the MFs are exceeding the cash prices (which at the current rate will be in a few short years). These contracts still have ~ 18 years left in them which is enough time for us to go into a recession. Disney cash prices for rooms at that time will be way under the costs of the MFs if that happens.
 
Well, the difference so far is Walt Disney World (and Disneyland): Most timeshares offer nice rooms in nice locations. The problem is, that there are many, many nice locations for new timeshare offerings. This devalues any existing (and ageing) building. The DVC resorts at WDW and DL operate in an environment with far less competition. As long as these locations remain attractive (within the Disney bubble, transportation,...), they will probably hold their value better than other timeshare offerings. DVC locations outside the Disney bubble face more intense pressure.

It will be interesting to see, what happens with HH and Vero as dues increase further. The regular room price is dictated by the market (what people are willing to pay) and not cost. But if there is an extended mismatch between market price and cost, something needs to give.
If people bought VB or HH specifically to stay at those resorts and not ever have any intention of going to WDW are pretty much screwed once the MFs are exceeding the cash prices. Not a good value when owning points costs more than cash to stay at your resort.
 
If people bought VB or HH specifically to stay at those resorts and not ever have any intention of going to WDW are pretty much screwed once the MFs are exceeding the cash prices. Not a good value when owning points costs more than cash to stay at your resort.
If there's any solice for VB/HHI owners, it may be the availability factor.

I've been to both resorts a couple of times. I keep a spreadsheet of what I could have booked a cash stay (and rental, and rack :)). In 4 stays, (2 ea) there has never been cash availability at either resort.

To be fair, I'm not hounding the site daily looking for cash availability... I probably check half a dozen times each stay... but never found any cash rooms available.

Good Luck! Have fun!
 
If people bought VB or HH specifically to stay at those resorts and not ever have any intention of going to WDW are pretty much screwed once the MFs are exceeding the cash prices. Not a good value when owning points costs more than cash to stay at your resort.
If there's any solice for VB/HHI owners, it may be the availability factor.

I've been to both resorts a couple of times. I keep a spreadsheet of what I could have booked a cash stay (and rental, and rack :)). In 4 stays, (2 ea) there has never been cash availability at either resort.

To be fair, I'm not hounding the site daily looking for cash availability... I probably check half a dozen times each stay... but never found any cash rooms available.

Good Luck! Have fun!
Renting your points becomes the only viable option.?
 
I've been to both resorts a couple of times. I keep a spreadsheet of what I could have booked a cash stay (and rental, and rack :)). In 4 stays, (2 ea) there has never been cash availability at either resort
Vero has cash rooms sometimes; I see availability in January right now.

HH is really only ever available for cash last minute that I’ve seen.
 
I think a majority of new BW/BC purchasers, such as we are, don't care much about resale value as we're more than likely buying to see it through till the end. I got a great deal on a BC otherwise I wouldn't have jumped in to a 2042 but I will absolutely be staying there more than likely 15-18 times in the next 18 years. Not sure how many people are currently looking to purchase a 2042 resort with the intention of selling in 8-10 years to recoup whatever percentage of their purchase price. Sure none of us owners WANT the price to crash but I do think many of the new owners aren't particularly worried. I'm coming off like I'm speaking for all new owners and I shouldn't but I truly think most are in the same mindset.

Now if I had owned BC or BW for 20 years and I've had amazing vacations and I can STILL get back probably more than I paid back then (not inflation adjusted) I would definitely be thinking long and hard about selling very soon or just taking it all the way to the end.
 
I think a majority of new BW/BC purchasers, such as we are, don't care much about resale value as we're more than likely buying to see it through till the end. I got a great deal on a BC otherwise I wouldn't have jumped in to a 2042 but I will absolutely be staying there more than likely 15-18 times in the next 18 years. Not sure how many people are currently looking to purchase a 2042 resort with the intention of selling in 8-10 years to recoup whatever percentage of their purchase price. Sure none of us owners WANT the price to crash but I do think many of the new owners aren't particularly worried. I'm coming off like I'm speaking for all new owners and I shouldn't but I truly think most are in the same mindset.
Also a first time BCV owner this year—so excited to be able to use our points there next year and every year or two until the association expires! I dreamed of staying at BCV (from the nearby Dolphin) since my first trip to WDW, have had many wonderful trips there with my kids since, and am looking forward to saving the full price of purchase (v cash bookings) in the next several years.
 
Does anyone's opinion change with age?
I'm 56 and considering a DVC purchase. Perhaps I would be happy to use it for 18 years (hopefully) and not have to worry about bequeathing an ongoing expense to my estate.
What do people suppose will happen in 2042? Tear down the resort? Refurbish and sell again?
 
Does anyone's opinion change with age?
I'm 56 and considering a DVC purchase. Perhaps I would be happy to use it for 18 years (hopefully) and not have to worry about bequeathing an ongoing expense to my estate.
What do people suppose will happen in 2042? Tear down the resort? Refurbish and sell again?
There area lot of ideas that people have about what DVD will do. Personally, I sold my BWV a few years back to buy RIV for two reasons...I love RIV more and so that we had a contract beyond the 2042 date, due to my adult kids wanting to still go.

I hope to continue going well into my 80s...assume I live that long (59 right now) so that is another reason didn't want a 2042 resort...but, for many, especially if its a favorite and the price is right, I think they can be worth it.
 
I recently bought a small BWV contract (80 pts) for what I felt it was a fair price for what I'd be getting. I'm 39 and 2042 is the perfect end date, right now I'm on track to retire in 2039. No kids to worry about - I have a few nieces and am hoping to take them once or twice, but not worried about leaving it to someone who may not want it. Already have my 40th birthday booked in a 2-bed and have invited my Disney friends to join, hoping to spend my 50th at Aulani. Planning to move to Europe for a few years after I retire, so not having to worry about the dues or planning a trip after 2041 is perfect for me. Overall, I purchased this for my use, it's a small enough contract where the yearly dues aren't really an issue but its a big enough contract to get the trips I want out of it.
 
Does anyone's opinion change with age?
I'm 56 and considering a DVC purchase. Perhaps I would be happy to use it for 18 years (hopefully) and not have to worry about bequeathing an ongoing expense to my estate.
What do people suppose will happen in 2042? Tear down the resort? Refurbish and sell again?
I’m leaning towards refurbish and sell again but nobody really knows. I am curious about the infrastructure of BWV especially which seems to have had plumbing issues but OTOH Contemporary and Poly have hit the 50 year mark and are still going. Definitely won’t be an extension with how those point charts are currently and the disaster the OKW extension was. If you don’t care about passing down to your kids or your kids aren’t into Disney a 2042 resort would be a great option. If you want to keep the option though and staying at BCV/BWV isn’t a must I’d consider maybe a better value resort like CCV, Poly or BLT.
 
Does anyone's opinion change with age?
I'm 56 and considering a DVC purchase. Perhaps I would be happy to use it for 18 years (hopefully) and not have to worry about bequeathing an ongoing expense to my estate.
What do people suppose will happen in 2042? Tear down the resort? Refurbish and sell again?
Age was a big factor for us with DVC. We have 4 home resorts with staggered end dates. We don’t have kids to leave our contracts to so we want them to fall off as we age. Not going to lie though, I will be very sad when 2042 comes around and we no longer own BRV!
 
Does anyone's opinion change with age?
I'm 56 and considering a DVC purchase. Perhaps I would be happy to use it for 18 years (hopefully) and not have to worry about bequeathing an ongoing expense to my estate.
Yes! This! The spreadsheet on 18 years of dues finally made me pull the trigger at 54. Bought, booked for next August, and ready to ride it to the end of we can!
 
What do people suppose will happen in 2042? Tear down the resort? Refurbish and sell again?
Personally I imagine they’ll bulldoze Boardwalk as it’s not a well designed property. Put something new there that actually has restaurants in the building.

Beach Club villas maybe they’ll redo, perhaps with the rest of the property as well.

Old Key west will remain as is until 2057

Boulder Ridge ???

They will sell the beach resorts. Definitely.
 
Personally I imagine they’ll bulldoze Boardwalk as it’s not a well designed property. Put something new there that actually has restaurants in the building.

Beach Club villas maybe they’ll redo, perhaps with the rest of the property as well.

Old Key west will remain as is until 2057

Boulder Ridge ???

They will sell the beach resorts. Definitely.
I think it will be tempting to completely rebuild a big chunk of BCV as well-- I don't see any reason they couldn't build it up twice as high (2x the number of rooms!) and imagine how many points they could demand with EPCOT view rooms... I think the rooms above 4th or 5th floor would be able to see much of the World Showcase? I suppose they could just build a giant tower over a parking structure on the existing parking lot?
 
Personally I imagine they’ll bulldoze Boardwalk as it’s not a well designed property. Put something new there that actually has restaurants in the building.

Beach Club villas maybe they’ll redo, perhaps with the rest of the property as well.

Old Key west will remain as is until 2057

Boulder Ridge ???

They will sell the beach resorts. Definitely.
I agree Vero Beach and Hilton Head get sold off. They would have one hell of a time trying to resell those resorts with where the yearly MFs would be at.
 

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