2022 Point Charts Are Out

[RoseGold]

That 2BR VGF resale is looking pretty fantastic for a Week 52 2BR for 550. It's 639 on the 2022 chart! You know, if you want to spend almost 100K on a Disney timeshare...

 

[Lorana]

What I don’t get is according to that chart, the bungalows only went up in cost. So it’s not like they lowered bungalows to offset the studio increase which would actually make sense to me.

Right. Shouldn't bungalows have gone done in some season? There seems something off here.

 

[AliceIn]

The time we typically go is 5 points less per week. Spring Break and Christmas went up significantly, but we rarely travel during that time. We have Spring Break booked in 2021 for the first time ever because my son’s high school is performing that week. With COVID, we may end up cancelling. I hate crowds, so if we cancel it is ok.

We are May/September travelers usually, but Summer is another time we go a lot. So far, 2022 is ok for us.

 

[JETSDAD]

Poly points increased for all rooms but by a very small amount.

By my calculations Standard studios increased 52 pts/yr, Lakeview increased 36 points/yr, and Bungalows increased 92 points (very small percentage for each of those).

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Poly points increased for all rooms but by a very small amount.

By my calculations Standard studios increased 52 pts/yr, Lakeview increased 36 points/yr, and Bungalows increased 92 points (very small percentage for each of those).

But why even bother? I just looked at them and 1 - it raises a question of why almost 100% of the changes are increases and 2 - it's fairly small. Do they plan on inching them up year after year is sadly the first thought something like this raises with me.

 

[Minniemoo15]

Poly points increased for all rooms but by a very small amount.

By my calculations Standard studios increased 52 pts/yr, Lakeview increased 36 points/yr, and Bungalows increased 92 points (very small percentage for each of those).

Is this fishy or to be expected year to year ?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

What I don’t get is according to that chart, the bungalows only went up in cost. So it’s not like they lowered bungalows to offset the studio increase which would actually make sense to me.

Really what should happen is for some seasons studios go up and others the studios go down and it's point neutral. Same for the bungalow category if they felt some seasons needed a change. Almost every season either goes up or stays the same which at first glance seems odd.

 

[AliceIn]

Poly points increased for all rooms but by a very small amount.

By my calculations Standard studios increased 52 pts/yr, Lakeview increased 36 points/yr, and Bungalows increased 92 points (very small percentage for each of those).

The weeks we usually go went down for PVB studios. The popular seasons went up by a lot, though.

 

[Minniemoo15]

But why even bother? I just looked at them and 1 - it raises a question of why almost 100% of the changes are increases and 2 - it's fairly small. Do they plan on inching them up year after year is sadly the first thought something like this raises with me.

Yes this is my concern... we go the exact same 10 days every year so the changes are very apparent. In 2020 those 10 days cost 246 points. Then in 2021, 252. Now for 2022 - it will be 262. It’s disheartening.

 

[JETSDAD]

Is this fishy or to be expected year to year ?

When I multiply it out by the number of rooms in the entire resort it comes to within approx 21,000 points from the 4mil+ that I'm finding as the total number of points (so within about half a percent of the total which I think is within reason).

 

[Minniemoo15]

When I multiply it out by the number of rooms in the entire resort it comes to within approx 21,000 points from the 4mil+ that I'm finding as the total number of points (so within about half a percent of the total which I think is within reason).

Thank you. This makes me feel better though I’m still not entirely happy about it.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

When I multiply it out by the number of rooms in the entire resort it comes to within approx 21,000 points from the 4mil+ that I'm finding as the total number of points (so within about half a percent of the total which I think is within reason).

That is approx 3 studios worth of points for a year if it continues year after year and is above the point totals sold and limits owners booking the number of nights they otherwise would. Times a cash rate of lets just say $400/night = $438,000 in extra income/year. So .5% may not seem like much but it's something that starts to add up.

 

[ElizabethG]

Well I guess I learned something new today! I've never in my school life or that of my kids' not had Spring Break in March. We'll never travel during that timeframe anyway, but I was curious. Thank you for the reply!

Nice to talk to a fellow Minnesotan! Back in the dark ages (when I was in grade school) we had spring break over Easter. But, it was called Easter break and we also got Good Friday off. (and this was public school)

 

[Mumof4mice]

Man - where's SkierPete when you need him to do some analysis. I miss that dude.

Yes, SkierPete was great! I'm keeping an eye out for @crvetter 's always impressive analysis. Too lazy to study the charts myself.

 

[Sandisw]

When I multiply it out by the number of rooms in the entire resort it comes to within approx 21,000 points from the 4mil+ that I'm finding as the total number of points (so within about half a percent of the total which I think is within reason).

Plus, one has to really use the base year to check to see if the totals are within reason to what they should be? I wonder how that compares for Poly. That could account for it,

I know the charts are supposed to be point neutral but I do wonder if there is any wiggle room given the changing of dates. I know they can’t have more than sold...but could a year have a few less on the chart to make it work?

 

[Minniemoo15]

Plus, one has to really use the base year to check to see if the totals are within reason to what they should be? I wonder how that compares for Poly. That could account for it,

I know the charts are supposed to be point neutral but I do wonder if there is any wiggle room given the changing of dates. I know they can’t have more than sold...but could a year have a few less on the chart to make it work?

ETA: Nevermind. I am realizing I can’t confuse my week with an entire year of point charts

 

[sethschroeder]

Is this fishy or to be expected year to year ?

There is nothing fishy at all they lowered a huge swath of time June 11 - Aug 15 a substantial amount between 2021 and 2022. On the flip side they needed to make up for it with increases of other dates.

Season Changes (1 = Cheapest / 7 = Most Expensive)

• December 15-23
  • Was: Season 2
  • Now: Season 3
• Oct 1 - Nov 30 (excluding 3 days around Thanksgiving)
  • Was: Season 3
  • Now: Season 4
• June 11 - Aug 15
  • Was: Season 5
  • Now: Season 4

You saw a 14 point/week on Standard View and 11 point/week on Lake View reduction in points across the summer. This accounted for a drop of 48,456 points across those dates that needed to be picked up somewhere. Roughly 22% of the year went down 1.5-2 points per day.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Poly points increased for all rooms but by a very small amount.

By my calculations Standard studios increased 52 pts/yr, Lakeview increased 36 points/yr, and Bungalows increased 92 points (very small percentage for each of those).

Is this for a certain travel period? They're not allowed to increase the total pool of points - only adjust. Also, I don't see where you're getting that bungalows only went up - July 4th went from 154points to 140.

 

[Sandisw]

one way to look at RVA for the 2021 to 2022 point charts is to break it down into two steps ...

1. seasons shifting of dates to new seasons
   • summer lower season
   • fall higher season
   • mid-Dec higher season
   • spring break later causing more higher season days
2. points the cost per villa type were tweaked to balance the chart after doing step #1

we all know the seasons not the same but the gaps between seasons are also not the same, the different steps are different amounts; for example: with everything but one bedrooms, the increase from season C to D is smaller than the increase from season D to E (second chart below); why does this matter? we might think that moving one week from season C to D (increase) is balanced by moving one week from E to D (decrease) but it isn't; pulling a deluxe studio - preferred as an extreme example (others are smaller differences) ...

2021 dsp season C 155 points per week​

2021 dsp season D 162 points per week (+7 points)​

2021 dsp season E 183 points per week (+21 points)​

... which gives us ...

+7 points move one week from C to D​

-21 points move one week from E to D​

-14 net points from moving one week up and one week down​

this is why there are more days that went up a season (80 days) than down a season (66 days)

after shifting days to the seasons you want (#1 above, first chart below) the point charts need to be tweaked to keep points decently balanced (#2 above, third chart below)

here are some charts that may help visualize the changes (first chart applies to all Walt Disney World resorts, second to fifth chart are for RVA but the theory works for all resorts) ...

days that moved
View attachment 543011

View attachment 543012
season A is greyed out as it's the starting point, season G (Easter + Christmas) is greyed out because it's the largest increase by far for all unit types so proportional shading is out of whack when it's included

View attachment 543065

View attachment 543014
season A is greyed out as it's the starting point, season G (Easter + Christmas) is greyed out because it's the largest increase by far for all unit types so proportional shading is out of whack when it's included

View attachment 543015

the lock-off premium (on an annual basis) was increased by step #1 (shifting dates to new seasons) and DVC adjusted the point charts in step #2 to reduce the lock-off premium increase; net effect was a slight decrease for standard view and slight increase for preferred view

lock-off premium (ds +1b > 2b by X points per day, average for year)

point chart	standard	preferred
base 2021​	6.90​	10.23​
base 2022 seasons​	7.23 +0.33​	11.10 +0.87​
base 2022 seasons + points​	6.53 -0.70 (-0.37 net to base 2021)​	10.59 -0.51 (+0.36 net to base 2021)​

my takeaways ...

• seasons (step #1) the prime objective was to shift fall into a higher season and summer into a lower season (first chart)
• points (step #2) because the gaps between seasons are ≠, the points per villa in the seasons had to be tweaked and the focus was mainly on seasons C and D (third chart)
• the lock-off premium wasn't affected significantly
• the total points for the Base Year (1 Jan = Sun is my assumption) didn't change significantly
  • RVA total 6,739,966
  • 2020 6,739,966 (100.00%)
  • 2021 6,739,779 (100.00%)
  • 2022 6,758,866 (100.28%)
• for the 40 units declared (as of 16 Mar 2020), the largest change was a reduction of 0.73% points per unit
  • unit 3A: 3x ts + 1x 3b
  • 2021 64,900 points per year
  • 2022 64,428 points per year
• for RVA, the changes seem to accomplish the prime objective while thoughtfully trying to stay away from things the have excited people in the past

edit: typos, slight tweaks for readability

Thank you! This was the way my brain was trying to analyze things and you captured it!

Really appreciate all your analyzing!