DS1 and I had APs for about 12 years until August 2019. DS2 had an AP off and on. We go 4-6 weeks per year. Initially we had the big boy out of state AP, then in 2016 we began getting the biggest FL Resident AP.
The entire year of 2019 I had "lost my joy" mostly due to other guests behaviors in the park. I loved the parks and CMs but became intolerant of the rude bad behavior. I decided we needed a break so we booked our first
Disneyland trip for the 3 of us plus Dad, letting AP expire. We were going to DL summer of 2020 (and talked of Disneyland Paris Summer of 2021) with plans to get new APs in September. Our plan was likely the weekday AP because our trips were now weekend at beach, drive to WDW M-F then back to the beach. Weekends in the parks had really become too crowded.
WELL COVID hit, DL trip was cancelled and when WDW opened they were not selling APs. I just couldn't bring myself to buy regular tickets so we didn't go. It was very hard on DS1, he lives for his trips. So summer of 2021 we booked full family (6) WDW & Universal trip. DS2 had Universal AP so DS1 and I bought one. Rest had regular tickets. We all had FL Resident WDW 4 day tickets (no hop). Parks were still very manageable, we had a great time!!!
The minute AP went on sale DS1 and I bought the Pixie Pass plus Waterparks etc. Buying that plus our Universal was still less than a Sorcerer Pass (I think Pirate is pretty worthless for the price). We will not renew our Universal this summer but looking at a SeaWorld pass. Having both with waterparks means we always have a place to go even with block out dates. We will look at Universal again when Epic Universe opens at the latest.
Will we renew? YES, because we know what it felt like to not be able to go. BUT we have the Pixie Pass at $399. I stay offsite usually in suites or "condos" with kitchen, eat only one meal per day in parks if I can (and last trip did no TS), we don't spend much frivolously but prefer to do upcharges - like this summer doing H2O, we get free parking with AP and know each trip there will be things we just can't get done. I don't spend anywhere near what many spend so it is still a great value for us.
Would I renew if we were still being required to buy the most expensive out of state pass ($1299)? Absolutely not. If we couldn't get a great deal on regular tickets, like when they had buy 3 get 5 days ... we would probably buy the AP every few years and get as many trips out of it we could. Honestly I think they priced that pass to reduce the number of out of state guests, hoping to push them to regular packages. I could see it going up again.
Do I think APs are going away? No. Disney really can't afford to let the FL ones go away. WDW Park capacity (just the 4 major) is around 320,000 and with Guardians, Tron and each new addition it goes up. Disney hotels provide maybe around 100-120,000 guests. So Disney highly depends on non-property staying guests to fill the registers. People staying offsite are more likely to also do Universal (just wait until Epic opens), SeaWorld and other activities. FL Resident APs, whether local or staying offsite are "committed" to Disney parks with their AP. The locals also use the discounts for dining, drinking, Disney Springs highly priced, very profitable items. Disney couldn't survive with just the guests staying on property.
Right now I wouldn't read too much into them not selling, I didn't expect sale to open until the Guardians previews were done at minimum. Now depending on when Tron is opening (I laugh as I type) it may also impact whether they reopen sales. If I had to guess, I think the only one really impacted with any change might be the Incredi-Pass.
AND NOW ... DVC, I don't know, my gut is that Disney may make some big changes to that since right now they haven't cared one second how this is affecting them.