Coronavirus will become insignificant in a month

[RamblingMad]

If the CDC's estimate of 10 unknown infections for every known holds true, Florida is experiencing 100,000+ new cases a day. It does seem at that rate there will be a loss of potential hosts to infect in a one to two month period.

That assumes that the antibodies against COVID last long enough.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

This is one of the strangest posts I've seen.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I want to live in this world. Living in reality is depressing.

 

[cabanafrau]

How about something really important instead, like Friday's lottery numbers? Maybe you could put your mathematical knowledge to good use and prognosticate up those numbers and share with us here?

 

[Krandor]

Nope. Not going to happen when some of the states surging are doing absolutely nothing to control it.

Worse then that. my stats is actually refusing to allow cities and counties to do anything about it. He's taking action - the wrong kind. "I'm not doing anything on th state level and I forbid the local level from doing anything either"

 

[msjprincess]

Worse then that. my stats is actually refusing to allow cities and counties to do anything about it. He's taking action - the wrong kind. "I'm not doing anything on th state level and I forbid the local level from doing anything either"

It's absolutely insane

 

[mrodgers]

but guys.....her DH doesnt know anyone who died from it so that means it's almost done! Plus, she's a mathematician! So you know...credible source!

No less credible than government agents who use to be scientists.

 

[linzjane88]

I also disagree. As much as I would love it to go back to normal. Our numbers our shooting up just like everyone elses are. Two weeks ago I knew no one personally diagnosed with Covid and we were sending all of our Covid+ patients to another hospital because there were so few. Now I know 8 people just who I work with that are positive or kids in their household and our hospital is keeping the Covid patients here. Our county had it's first 2 deaths yesterday (both elderly with comordbidities).

I don't see it ending anytime soon.

 

[_19disnA]

I find the 'ignore' features works great on here !!!

 

[mrodgers]

It won't just magically go away.

This. Are you planning on wearing your mask the rest of your life every time you leave your home? I can't name a single person that I know who is going to get the vaccine.

 

[mom2rtk]

I can’t believe you guys are taking the bait.

 

[CrimsonRave]

So I live in Texas, I have several friends that are doctors and researchers. The researches have said we are about 5-8 months away from a vaccine, but production will take some time.

As far as the hospitals, both of the largest hospitals in Austin received refrigerated trucks for storing bodies. They are expecting to use them, coming from a close friend that is an ER doctor. Also our convention center has been converted to a hospital for people beyond treatment.

This is going to get really really bad, in a short time frame. July 4th is going to show it's face in just 1-2 weeks.

I do agree the curve trends down in other countries and even in NYC, but that was due to extreme changes due to total deaths. If we start seeing 300-500 deaths a day in Texas, I can for sure say we will be in a complete lockdown.... no way to get around it.

 

[okeydokey]

This. Are you planning on wearing your mask the rest of your life every time you leave your home? I can't name a single person that I know who is going to get the vaccine.

You know a lot of foolish people then,

 

[anthony2k7]

If you look at any chart of countries or states that has had a surge of covid, such as New York, Italy, or Sweden, you will notice that their surge (bump on the curve) lasts no more than 2 months, counting from the beginning of the wave to the end. In fact, Sweden, the country that never locked down, had only a one-month-long bump. Once the bump is over, no country or state has had a second surge.

So right now, the US has being going sharply up for a month. That means we are at the top of the curve and should be heading downward soon, and by the middle to end of August, cases will have fallen to before surge levels. Schools will be able to open on time.

Most importantly, Disney World needs to hang tight for month. Then they will be able to resume normal capacity and operations.

I am a mathematician. Earlier this year, I calculated that at least 3 million people will be dead from the coronavirus by the end of 2020, based on the death rate of 3.4% by the WHO. I told DH that 50 people he knows will be dead from covid by the end of the year (assuming he doesn't die first). Recently, however, the US CDC has stated that the death rate is actually 0.26%. That is a huge reduction and tremendous news. I just asked DH if he knows anybody dead from covid yet? He says he doesn’t even know anyone who is sick from covid.

And the Skyliner reopened yesterday! Almost nobody is riding it, but at least it’s open. Too bad I won’t be able to ride it. I might never go to Disney World or Disneyland again -- I want to die at home. But if things get back to normal, I might brave it.

Why would "brave it" be relevant if covid is gonna be "insignificant" in month anyway?

 

[ramee]

I find the 'ignore' features works great on here !!!

How can anyone know the dynamics of a whole conversation with that? Do you know if a lot of people use that feature?

I wonder how people decide who to ignore. Three strikes and you’re out?

 

[Kitty 34]

How can anyone know the dynamics of a whole conversation with that? Do you know if a lot of people use that feature?

I wonder how people decide who to ignore. Three strikes and you’re out?

I've never used the Ignore feature but I do Backspace a lot or just not open threads.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I've never used the Ignore feature but I do Backspace a lot or just not open threads.

Same! I have backspaced here and on social media more times in the last 4 months than I have the entire time I’ve been on either.

 

[Minnie1222]

And the Skyliner reopened yesterday!

 

[hopemax]

Recently, however, the US CDC has stated that the death rate is actually 0.26%. That is a huge reduction and tremendous news. I

For anyone who remembers seeing the CDC report that had the IFR originally this low, they revised their numbers last week.

Now the range is .5%-.8% with a "best guess" of .65%. You can see the new numbers in the table on this link.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

 

[Kaleidodad]

If you look at any chart of countries or states that has had a surge of covid, such as New York, Italy, or Sweden, you will notice that their surge (bump on the curve) lasts no more than 2 months, counting from the beginning of the wave to the end. In fact, Sweden, the country that never locked down, had only a one-month-long bump. Once the bump is over, no country or state has had a second surge.

So right now, the US has being going sharply up for a month. That means we are at the top of the curve and should be heading downward soon, and by the middle to end of August, cases will have fallen to before surge levels. Schools will be able to open on time.

Most importantly, Disney World needs to hang tight for month. Then they will be able to resume normal capacity and operations.

I am a mathematician. Earlier this year, I calculated that at least 3 million people will be dead from the coronavirus by the end of 2020, based on the death rate of 3.4% by the WHO. I told DH that 50 people he knows will be dead from covid by the end of the year (assuming he doesn't die first). Recently, however, the US CDC has stated that the death rate is actually 0.26%. That is a huge reduction and tremendous news. I just asked DH if he knows anybody dead from covid yet? He says he doesn’t even know anyone who is sick from covid.

And the Skyliner reopened yesterday! Almost nobody is riding it, but at least it’s open. Too bad I won’t be able to ride it. I might never go to Disney World or Disneyland again -- I want to die at home. But if things get back to normal, I might brave it.