December DVC Sales Tumble

[Cfabar1]

https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...in-december-2023-posts-best-total-in-12-years

A few key takeaways:

12k VGF points were sold. Likely delayed closings, etc. from before sold out status.
3 years at current pace of sales to sell out Riviera.

VDH is not popular. Riviera did over triple the sales! That TOT and the high dues are likely killing it.

Banner finish to the year. The summer really helped push the needle. Wonder what they will need to do to have strong sales in 2025. I'm skeptical the cabins are going to be the product to get the job done....

On a separate note, was in the EPCOT lounge this weekend. The staff were unusually pushy about sales. One couple we saw got quite angry at the guides and even said "we are here to relax and enjoy our vacation, not for a sales pitch". They also didn't ask the usual question "who is your guide", which makes me wonder if that is a change, or if it is just becoming more of a survival strategy and every agent to themself.... Makes me wonder what January is looking like so far....

 

[Sandisw]

Maybe what they should learn is that price is a key factor and that good incentives make a difference.

And yet, the base price is going up. It will be interesting to see what happens the next few months with the start of CFW.

 

[intamin]

Yeesh. 16,800 points sold at VDH. I mean I think we're seeing the same strategy that they're using on Riviera. Why try to sell it out when you can sell the rooms for cash? It'll be interesting to see how things turn out once CFW is thrown into the loop.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Maybe what they should learn is that price is a key factor and that good incentives make a difference.

And yet, the base price is going up. It will be interesting to see what happens the next few months with the start of CFW.

You mean “the price may be going up to $250” isn’t enough to motivate people who don’t want to buy it at $230?

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Yeah only one actively selling DVC property at Disneyland - they're taking their time especially if it's doing well with cash bookings. Some disboard posters far smarter than me are guessing they are doing less incentives at VDH now also because sales took off faster than expected out of the gate and they weren't ready for another major declaration yet.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

Was at VDH a few weeks ago, no pressure at all from the guides onsite or in the lounge. Ran into our guide and he just mentioned prices were going up but no pressure at all.

Will be at Aulani next week, we’ll see how the guides are there.

 

[Nabas]

Perhaps part of the weak VDH sales is due to comparisons to the Grand Californian?

In addition to a much better location, the Grand Californian is just wow!

 

[NorCalFanatic]

They also have no problem selling out VDH for cash. I see a few more sale contracts have popped up for sale , everyone seems fixated on $180. We’re ready to pounce when they drop another $30ish a point.

 

[AstroBlasters]

They also have no problem selling out VDH for cash. I see a few more sale contracts have popped up for sale , everyone seems fixated on $180. We’re ready to pounce when they drop another $30ish a point.

The “appraisal tools” are recommending $150pp, which tells me the sellers know or should know where a set of buyers are.

 

[Cfabar1]

We recently did a poll on this site about what people here would pay. Granted we tend to be the savviest and stingiest buyers, but many people wouldn't take VDH resale at just about any price.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

We recently did a poll on this site about what people here would pay. Granted we tend to be the savviest and stingiest buyers, but many people wouldn't take VDH resale at just about any price.

Yes I voted and commented 150ish was our price to add on to our direct points. Stingiest is a bit of an understatement

After reading the latest Genie+ DL vs WDW thread, just reaffirms our desire to stick to the west coast parks & Aulani.

 

[Tatebeck]

Any chance the bad sales fuel good incentives next year? All my points are resale so I could work on getting our direct points and add 50 or 100 on our way to 150 at somewhere like Riviera or VDH. Or maybe Poly tower depending on how that goes

 

[Cfabar1]

Any chance the bad sales fuel good incentives next year? All my points are resale so I could work on getting our direct points and add 50 or 100 on our way to 150 at somewhere like Riviera or VDH. Or maybe Poly tower depending on how that goes

Yes. It feels to me that is what happened this past summer.

However, the real question is more does Disney care if sales are slow. So far they haven’t really minded Riviera being on pace to take 8 years to sell out for example.

 

[Tatebeck]

I am surprised they want to raise the prices for the sites that have been up for multiple years. Every year you lose around 2% of the total points of the contract, so wouldn't it make sense for prices to decrease over time? Or at least stay constant?

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes I voted and commented 150ish was our price to add on to our direct points. Stingiest is a bit of an understatement

After reading the latest Genie+ DL vs WDW thread, just reaffirms our desire to stick to the west coast parks & Aulani.

I just can’t see adding a stripped resale vs buying direct with incentives given that direct will give you extra points and is unrestricted…. You could just buy direct with the incentives, sell back the MB points from previous year, rent out the current year points, and be not that far off but have unrestricted points…. Even from just an ability to rent out points in the future if a trip falls apart perspective…. or you want to upgrade your Aulani stay one year to a bigger/better room…. or book/ waitlist VGC to get in without the TOT….

 

[AstroBlasters]

I am surprised they want to raise the prices for the sites that have been up for multiple years. Every year you lose around 2% of the total points of the contract, so wouldn't it make sense for prices to decrease over time? Or at least stay constant?

They correlate much more closely to the cost of staying cash at the resorts and the rental value of the points less dues.

 

[PiratesOfTheSea]

Perhaps part of the weak VDH sales is due to comparisons to the Grand Californian?

In addition to a much better location, the Grand Californian is just wow!

That and the direct perks don’t exactly add a whole lot of value on the West Coast. It’s one thing when you are paying for a hotel room for a few nights, it’s another thing when you are locking yourself into that location for decades potentially. I wouldn’t mind owning some points there eventually, but there are many reasons why it’s a distant third for me on the West Coast for DVC.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

I just can’t see adding a stripped resale vs buying direct with incentives given that direct will give you extra points and is unrestricted…. You could just buy direct with the incentives, sell back the MB points from previous year, rent out the current year points, and be not that far off but have unrestricted points…. Even from just an ability to rent out points in the future if a trip falls apart perspective…. or you want to upgrade your Aulani stay one year to a bigger/better room…. or book/ waitlist VGC to get in without the TOT….

We've already got 600+ direct at VDH and 1000+ (direct and resale) at Aulani. We're waiting for a non stripped in the 150ish range at VDH in the right use year. We want points to use now, not sell back for MB, or rent out points that we want to use. Another 300 points just for VDH (resale) would be ideal. VGC doesn't hold much appeal (rooms are old and busted, although the location is great) and booking 6+ nights in a 1 or 2 bedroom at 7 months isn't easy (we've tried). WDW has zero appeal to us, so points for only VDH are fine with us.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I don’t understand why buyers are getting like 1,000 points on one contract, except for fixed weeks where it makes sense.

Why not split it up, eventually people need to sell and selling 1,000 to a prospective buyer will be hard like very hard. I think anything above 200 points will be difficult.

I know most people like us here on DISboards aren’t thinking like that especially not new owners.

 

[AstroBlasters]

We've already got 600+ direct at VDH and 1000+ (direct and resale) at Aulani. We're waiting for a non stripped in the 150ish range at VDH in the right use year. We want points to use now, not sell back for MB, or rent out points that we want to use. Another 300 points just for VDH (resale) would be ideal. VGC doesn't hold much appeal (rooms are old and busted, although the location is great) and booking 6+ nights in a 1 or 2 bedroom at 7 months isn't easy (we've tried). WDW has zero appeal to us, so points for only VDH are fine with us.

I hypothesize that there won’t be a resale VDH that isn’t stripped for a while… People will have sold the points for MB or used/rented the points themselves…. but you never know….

I’ll be intrigued to see non-owners opinions of VGC vs VDH after the refurb….