Europe cruises/travel summer 2020 -Anyone else thinking of cancelling??

[mmmears]

Hate to be a spoiler but I am guessing there are just as many non-reported / non- tested cases in the US as reported cases in Europe. So this issue is not a European thing. I am in Germany and the news here which is very reliable just had experts on. The fact that the CDC only had 5 national places to test us just dumbfounding. In Europe hospitals do their own local testing. Everyone is saying the numbers reported in the US are too low based on patterns/ travel behavior.
Today two more cases on the westcoast from community transfer. No China/ Italy/ European travel history.

the US is no less connected to China than rest of the world. before this virus raised flags I am guessing 1000s traveled to/from Wutan to/ from the US. Seeing how this spreads so fast it cannot be nobody in the US the past 2 months were not infected

I am just guessing most had a minor flu/ cough and that is it. Here in Bavaria we had 16 cases and all recovered with no real symptoms.

I believe the CDCs policy was to only test those who recently traveled to China and had symptoms. Well this virus was long around before that policy. End of December I believe. .

Another issue also troubling is how many In US had no legal required paid sick time off. Many in low income jobs- pay check to pay check will still work with those symptoms. Who calls in sick for a low cöugh and many don’t realize they have a temperature unless really high. Or those who have no health insurance? And It‘s been commented often that I can’t afford not to work for 2 weeks. At least here if the government forces people in quarantine due to public health reasons, employers or health insurance have to continue pay.

Totally agree. It's insane that they haven't been testing people here. And yes, not having good sick leave is going to make it so much worse.

 

[mousefan73]

We really don't know the mortality rate because we don't know how many people have the virus. I'll go back to my were not testing for it. I don't think the virus is deadly enough for all the hype. It's not worth a global recession. People will lose their savings, their jobs, their homes, their ability to travel, kids coming out of college won't be able to find work, the list goes on.

Maybe people on these boards are too young or weren't affected by the recession in 2008, but it was ugly. My husband was laid off and had to work in another state for 5 years. My BIL lost his 6 figure job and his house. He and his wife and three small kids had to move in with her parents for two years. He was out of work for over a year. Many of my neighbors were laid off, foreclosures everywhere. I don't want to see this again. People need to calm the heck down. Hopefully, the market will stabilize next week.

Agree. I need to check the figures at work tomorrow but I am 99.9% sure this had already done worse financial damage to the airline industry than 9/11 and that I recall like it was yesterday

 

[Candycane83]

We have a cruise in and out of Barcelona in July plus almost 2 weeks around Barcelona Madrid and San Sebastián. Flights are already paid for and some hotels we have is not refundable. Lots of prepaid tours I have booked but mostly can be cancelled with no penalty yet.
The cruise we’re on is already one we moved from last year due to an medical emergency. We’re totally at the mercy of Disney for this this now as we can’t cancel. We do have travel insurance but I’m thinking we would not be able to recover what we paid. We’re also booked for ABD Barcelona short escape before the cruise which PiF is on March 12. I am thinking of just moving this and cutting my loss. All ABDs to Italy has been cancelled to April already. I know for everything else we’ll have to wait and see but ABD is a lot of money and at this point, things look like it’s going from bad to worse on a daily basis.

 

[GingerPilot]

I really feel the governments should limit non-essential travel. It might slow the spread to put less strain on the healthcare system but I'm sure it will affect economy and supply chains though too so not sure if there is a good solution.

What is essential and non-essential travel? It isn't up for the government to decide when I can or cannot travel whether it be for business or pleasure. 50% of my days are spent in airplanes in one form or another, people like me would be screwed without that mode of transportation.

As people are panicking everywhere I start to wonder if there is a point the tourism industry will collapse, like it did in 2001.

Yep. This sort of panic is going to destroy not only the tourism industry but the airline industry, hospitality industry etc. It's not good. Making off the cuff choice about plans in September or later is ridiculous... all because CNN and Fox want to get people glued to their mediocre broadcasts.

 

[cwis]

Some news from France. All forthcoming public events with more than 5,000 people are cancelled. Less than 60 people infected in the country at this time.

 

[Gentry2004]

What has DCL said to people who have cruises booked in/through Italy this summer? Can anyone share?

 

[SirDuff]

Slightly offtopic, calendar years, with exemptions for expecting mothers. (Disclaimer: not working for AF/KLM. Call your Elite+ helpline, they're helpful and knowledgeable!)

Karin clarified for me (didn't seem worth bothering the helpline about). My confusion was between personal year versus calendar year (and getting 600+ points within a single calendar year).

And now back to your scheduled discussion...

 

[cedricandsophie]

We are in DW now and going to Africa at end of March. The tour co we are with has no plans to cancel or change anything. My TA called yesterday. Just one of those thImgs. We do have travel insurance but it only covers medical conditions that affects us personally. I’m really not nervous. And not much we can do aboit it. The high cost of this trip prohibits us from even considering canceling.

 

[Intr3pid]

We really don't know the mortality rate because we don't know how many people have the virus. I'll go back to my were not testing for it. I don't think the virus is deadly enough for all the hype. It's not worth a global recession. People will lose their savings, their jobs, their homes, their ability to travel, kids coming out of college won't be able to find work, the list goes on.

We do we have an idea how many people are getting infected as these cases are reported everyday. Not an exact science or even wholly reliable, yet this is exactly how they have measured it in the past.

But, like I said, deaths are irrelevant. Market isn't selling off because people are dying. Sickness is bad enough. Sick people don't travel, don't spend, don't generate sales for companies - and the effects are felt across the entire value chain. This new strain is making people around those infected sick without constraints and - until we develop an effective treatment - will keep others from traveling or spending.

Just to point out that what people are talking about is the case-fatality rate not the mortality rate. The mortality rate has the entire population as the denominator (e.g. the mortality rate due to AIDS is the number of people who died of AIDS of divided by the overall population) whereas the case-fatality rate is the number of people who died of AIDS divided by the estimated number of people with AIDS.

The mortality rate for Covid-19 is teeny tiny. The case-fatality rate is still pretty small but much higher (but really difficult to calculate). It’s the “estimated number of people with the disease” bit of the calculation that makes things so hard.

That's true, but the seasonal flu does reach out to the entire population one way or the other. We can't say that about the new virus yet. What we can still say is that COVID-19's case fatality rate is nearly 50 times higher than that of your seasonal flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

[Kaufeegurl]

We're cruising out of Copenhagen in August and I'm not cancelling. I'm expecting the virus to slow down in the Summer.

We are also cruising out of Copenhagen in August and while cancelling is not *right now* on our radar, we are monitoring the situation and will make a call before our PIF date in April. I'm also expecting better conditions this summer. We are heading to Exhuma on Monday and honestly, that trip has us *slightly* more concerned than a summer cruise.

 

[Kaufeegurl]

duplicate post

 

[Niclovesdisney]

What has DCL said to people who have cruises booked in/through Italy this summer? Can anyone share?

They have just said to wait until nearer the time. We are booked on the first Mediterranean cruise 5/23.

 

[o&smom]

We do we have an idea how many people are getting infected as these cases are reported everyday. Not an exact science or even wholly reliable, yet this is exactly how they have measured it in the past.

But, like I said, deaths are irrelevant. Market isn't selling off because people are dying. Sickness is bad enough. Sick people don't travel, don't spend, don't generate sales for companies - and the effects are felt across the entire value chain. This new strain is making people around those infected sick without constraints and - until we develop an effective treatment - will keep others from traveling or spending.


That's true, but the seasonal flu does reach out to the entire population one way or the other. We can't say that about the new virus yet. What we can still say is that COVID-19's case fatality rate is nearly 50 times higher than that of your seasonal flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Yes, there are cases being reported, but at least here in the U.S. testing is VERY limited. The CDC will ONLY allow testing of individuals who have travelled to affected areas AND show symptoms, or are in SEVERE respiratory distress. We are NOT testing many people who have the major symptoms, but do not need medical intervention. I fully believe that it is already spreading throughout our communities and if more testing were being done there would be huge numbers of cases in mostly asymptomatic people. We need more testing.

 

[GatorMomInNC]

Update regarding DLP and France:

https://wdwnt.com/2020/02/disneylan...therings-in-response-to-coronavirus-outbreak/

 

[mousefan73]

Yes, there are cases being reported, but at least here in the U.S. testing is VERY limited. The CDC will ONLY allow testing of individuals who have travelled to affected areas AND show symptoms, or are in SEVERE respiratory distress. We are NOT testing many people who have the major symptoms, but do not need medical intervention. I fully believe that it is already spreading throughout our communities and if more testing were being done there would be huge numbers of cases in mostly asymptomatic people. We need more testing.

Agree. Just watched Trump and wanted to scream when he stated the US doesn’t have as many cases as even much smaller countries. I dare the CDC to test everyone this 19 yr old has been in contact with the past weeks. When this hit Germany weeks ago it started with a Chinese employee from Wutan holding an on-site training to a subsidiary in Germany. Almost the entire classroom tested positive and so did all family members, close aquaintences. Local community spread was stopped by 14 day quarantines. Based off of stories on how fast this spreads to others no way only this teen is infected and no family members and close friends.

take the total number REPORTED and take that as a fraction. But asTrump did say if you are healthy it will run it’s course and you move on. A bit is panic making. Everything has a price. We all still drive cars and look how many die a year. It‘s a risk we are simply groomed to accept. This is new and therefore scary. I mean it’s not the plague where people are dropping dead in town square.

 

[SirDuff]

That's true, but the seasonal flu does reach out to the entire population one way or the other. We can't say that about the new virus yet. What we can still say is that COVID-19's case fatality rate is nearly 50 times higher than that of your seasonal flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I don't understand your "but" - nothing you say contradicts what I said.

I also don't see where your link (which is 10 days old - which is quite dated given quickly suggests that the case-fatality rate of Covid-19 is "nearly 50" times higher. The closest that I see is this (it says death rate, but given the context, assume that this is case-fatality rate):

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

2.3 is 23 times higher than 0.1 - not "almost 50".

 

[Intr3pid]

I don't understand your "but" - nothing you say contradicts what I said.

I also don't see where your link (which is 10 days old - which is quite dated given quickly suggests that the case-fatality rate of Covid-19 is "nearly 50" times higher. The closest that I see is this (it says death rate, but given the context, assume that this is case-fatality rate):

You will have to do more than just read. Whip out your old-school calculator.

If you have 75,000 COVID-19 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, that's 2.7%. With 26 million seasonal flu illnesses and 14,000 deaths, you get 0.054% - which I'm sure a clever reporter can round up to 0.1%.

 

[SirDuff]

You will have to do more than just read. Whip out your old-school calculator.

If you have 75,000 COVID-19 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, that's 2.7%. With 26 million seasonal flu illnesses and 14,000 deaths, you get 0.054% - which I'm sure a clever reporter can round up to 0.1%.

But one thing that we know (and we know very little) is that there are regional differences in deaths (both for influenza and for Covid-19). You're comparing case-fatality for influenza just in the US with case-fatality for Covid-19 worldwide. Not a valid comparison. Which, actually, is the same comparison made in the death rate paragraph (the link to the New York Times is either pointing to a new article or the article has been updated because I don't see anything about influenza in the article).

But, yes, I now see where you got your number, even if I don't trust the numbers behind it for various reasons. I'm not doubting you/your math, doubting some of the numbers in the article and just knowing that estimated case-fatality rates for Covid-19 have massive confidence intervals (notably lacking from the article and most reports) right now. Influenza does too, but less because we are better at estimating true infection rate since we have so much more historical information.

 

[o&smom]

Agree. Just watched Trump and wanted to scream when he stated the US doesn’t have as many cases as even much smaller countries. I dare the CDC to test everyone this 19 yr old has been in contact with the past weeks. When this hit Germany weeks ago it started with a Chinese employee from Wutan holding an on-site training to a subsidiary in Germany. Almost the entire classroom tested positive and so did all family members, close aquaintences. Local community spread was stopped by 14 day quarantines. Based off of stories on how fast this spreads to others no way only this teen is infected and no family members and close friends.

take the total number REPORTED and take that as a fraction. But asTrump did say if you are healthy it will run it’s course and you move on. A bit is panic making. Everything has a price. We all still drive cars and look how many die a year. It‘s a risk we are simply groomed to accept. This is new and therefore scary. I mean it’s not the plague where people are dropping dead in town square.

I had the same reaction to the press conference.

 

[Intr3pid]

I fully believe that it is already spreading throughout our communities and if more testing were being done there would be huge numbers of cases in mostly asymptomatic people. We need more testing.

True, we need more testing, but I'm referring to the numbers coming out of China or that Hubei province. That place has been on a lockdown and EVERYONE is a potential walking virus unless proven otherwise. Even if you discredit their reporting, they seem to be not letting anyone slip through the cracks.

But one thing that we know (and we know very little) is that there are regional differences in deaths (both for influenza and for Covid-19). You're comparing case-fatality for influenza just in the US with case-fatality for Covid-19 worldwide. Not a valid comparison. Which, actually, is the same comparison made in the death rate paragraph (the link to the New York Times is either pointing to a new article or the article has been updated because I don't see anything about influenza in the article).

But, yes, I now see where you got your number, even if I don't trust the numbers behind it for various reasons. I'm not doubting you/your math, doubting some of the numbers in the article and just knowing that estimated case-fatality rates for Covid-19 have massive confidence intervals (notably lacking from the article and most reports) right now. Influenza does too, but less because we are better at estimating true infection rate since we have so much more historical information.

At this point, we can't be sure of any specific numbers - maybe only their relative ballpark severity.

That said, Influenza is a pretty well-traveled and mature pathogen, and the differences in its effects are more of a function of access to and quality of healthcare. For this new strain, we can see that China is finding its own sickness, death, and propagation numbers severe enough to lock down entire cities and build emergency hospitals in a matter of days.