CanadianGuy
<font color=green><br><br><font color=blue>Me and
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2006
Ok ... the drums are beating loud here on the boards for this year's fall promotion/free dining offer.
As a moderator.. you hear things. You hear LOTS of things. Some of them turn out to be true and some of them do not.
In the case of F/D 2010, the rumors have been all over the spectrum. After a few weeks tho, a few things tend to bubble up and sound more plausible than others.
I've heard two completely different stories over and over in slightly different forms .. and here's what they are at this point.. and I've only reported things I've heard from multiple sources with commonalities in the details.
I have put on my flame retardant suit and I'm protected behind this brick wall here so .. flame away if you must but this is what I'm hearing.
OPTION # 1. - The Nightmare Scenario
One thing I've been hearing pretty consistently is a new promotion will be announced in the next week. It will NOT be free dining. There is no agreement in the rumors to exactly what it will be. It could be released as early as April 8th.
Part of what I'm hearing here is that Disney is still very concerned about the April - May - June timeframe.. what is called "Third Quarter" in their business terms. Bookings for Q3 aren't as strong as they'd like and this promotion may address parts of Q3 and Q4 potentially..
Q4 (July to September) is the final quarter of the business year for them to book the necessary revenue to hit the targets they've hoped for .. to meet the expectations of Wall Street financiers and analysts. They have not yet begun in earnest to examine the options for the 1st Quarter of what will be their new business year (October to December).
This "new promotion" may include *some dates* that traditionally fall in the free dining period (September). It will be offered for a limited time (perhaps as short as 30 days or less) ...
And the outcome of THAT offer, will potentially help Disney decide whether or not to offer Free Dining for Sept/October dates. And THAT free dining offer, if it were to come for those fall dates, would not be released until early-mid May.
ALL of this -apparently comes from the top- and is apparently a consideration as Disney looks to wean folks off the plethora of discounts they've offered the past few years in blatant attempts to get people to the parks and spending $$$. Of course that dovetails nicely with public statements made by Iger about reducing discounts... a little 'too nicely' if you take my meaning.. so take it ALL for what you will.
The short and sweet summary of the "Nightmare Scenario" is this:
F/D won't be the 'next' promotion but that it may be offered 'later in the calendar year' for a smaller travel window or it may not be offered at all for the traditional fall dates..
OR MAY be offered in December.. (again for fewer dates)
OR not at all in 2010.
So.. if you're holding off waiting for a F/D promo - you may wish to book something during this next offer so you secure some discount. Unless you refuse to go without F/D -- in which case.. don't book.
I will say this - as of yesterday - there was definitely a non-FD promo coming very soon that probably won't be what very many folks were hoping for. Of course that can (and often does) change in a heartbeat).
OPTION # 2. The Magical Dream Scenario
On the other side of the rumor mill (it's a very big mill) .. I'm hearing the usual thing. The offer will be released to Disney Visa folks tomorrow or Friday and to the public on Monday. The dates will pretty much fall into line with previous years with the exception of the end dates may be a bit shorter than before.
Under THIS rumor, QS dining will be offered at the values and 'basic' dining at the mods and deluxes. There *may* be new restrictions which require 'length of stay tickets' vs. just 'minimum of one day tickets' for each guest on the reservation.
------
My Take On It All
I'm a gut man. I trust my gut instincts. Pretty deeply and intuitively. And my gut tells me that even if F/D is offered sometime in 2010, it probably won't be for the usual dates and it will probably have new restrictions.
Do I hope I'm dead wrong about scenario #1 - Oh YES. I have no intentions of traveling then but I know many of you do and I would hate to see your hopes dashed on this.
I do however strongly encourage folks to at least consider the possibility and look at the alternatives in case F/D is not offered in the usual timeframe or methods as years past.
And in any case, if scenario 2 is true.. we'll have some indication by Friday.. just 48 hours. And if scenario 1 is true, we'll know with absolute certainty by Monday.
I really stewed back and forth about posting this. But ultimately, I think it's fair to present what I know to the board and hope that it's helpful to at least some folks in the long run.
And as I said, won't be long now before we know either way.
Thanks and please don't panic. It's just a vacation.
Knox
As a moderator.. you hear things. You hear LOTS of things. Some of them turn out to be true and some of them do not.
In the case of F/D 2010, the rumors have been all over the spectrum. After a few weeks tho, a few things tend to bubble up and sound more plausible than others.
I've heard two completely different stories over and over in slightly different forms .. and here's what they are at this point.. and I've only reported things I've heard from multiple sources with commonalities in the details.
I have put on my flame retardant suit and I'm protected behind this brick wall here so .. flame away if you must but this is what I'm hearing.
OPTION # 1. - The Nightmare Scenario
One thing I've been hearing pretty consistently is a new promotion will be announced in the next week. It will NOT be free dining. There is no agreement in the rumors to exactly what it will be. It could be released as early as April 8th.
Part of what I'm hearing here is that Disney is still very concerned about the April - May - June timeframe.. what is called "Third Quarter" in their business terms. Bookings for Q3 aren't as strong as they'd like and this promotion may address parts of Q3 and Q4 potentially..
Q4 (July to September) is the final quarter of the business year for them to book the necessary revenue to hit the targets they've hoped for .. to meet the expectations of Wall Street financiers and analysts. They have not yet begun in earnest to examine the options for the 1st Quarter of what will be their new business year (October to December).
This "new promotion" may include *some dates* that traditionally fall in the free dining period (September). It will be offered for a limited time (perhaps as short as 30 days or less) ...
And the outcome of THAT offer, will potentially help Disney decide whether or not to offer Free Dining for Sept/October dates. And THAT free dining offer, if it were to come for those fall dates, would not be released until early-mid May.
ALL of this -apparently comes from the top- and is apparently a consideration as Disney looks to wean folks off the plethora of discounts they've offered the past few years in blatant attempts to get people to the parks and spending $$$. Of course that dovetails nicely with public statements made by Iger about reducing discounts... a little 'too nicely' if you take my meaning.. so take it ALL for what you will.
The short and sweet summary of the "Nightmare Scenario" is this:
F/D won't be the 'next' promotion but that it may be offered 'later in the calendar year' for a smaller travel window or it may not be offered at all for the traditional fall dates..
OR MAY be offered in December.. (again for fewer dates)
OR not at all in 2010.
So.. if you're holding off waiting for a F/D promo - you may wish to book something during this next offer so you secure some discount. Unless you refuse to go without F/D -- in which case.. don't book.
I will say this - as of yesterday - there was definitely a non-FD promo coming very soon that probably won't be what very many folks were hoping for. Of course that can (and often does) change in a heartbeat).
OPTION # 2. The Magical Dream Scenario
On the other side of the rumor mill (it's a very big mill) .. I'm hearing the usual thing. The offer will be released to Disney Visa folks tomorrow or Friday and to the public on Monday. The dates will pretty much fall into line with previous years with the exception of the end dates may be a bit shorter than before.
Under THIS rumor, QS dining will be offered at the values and 'basic' dining at the mods and deluxes. There *may* be new restrictions which require 'length of stay tickets' vs. just 'minimum of one day tickets' for each guest on the reservation.
------
My Take On It All
I'm a gut man. I trust my gut instincts. Pretty deeply and intuitively. And my gut tells me that even if F/D is offered sometime in 2010, it probably won't be for the usual dates and it will probably have new restrictions.
Do I hope I'm dead wrong about scenario #1 - Oh YES. I have no intentions of traveling then but I know many of you do and I would hate to see your hopes dashed on this.
I do however strongly encourage folks to at least consider the possibility and look at the alternatives in case F/D is not offered in the usual timeframe or methods as years past.
And in any case, if scenario 2 is true.. we'll have some indication by Friday.. just 48 hours. And if scenario 1 is true, we'll know with absolute certainty by Monday.
I really stewed back and forth about posting this. But ultimately, I think it's fair to present what I know to the board and hope that it's helpful to at least some folks in the long run.
And as I said, won't be long now before we know either way.
Thanks and please don't panic. It's just a vacation.
Knox