Hurricane Dorian FINALLY moving - updates pg 10

[JimMIA]

There has been a significant change in Dorian's status over the last 4 hours. The computer models have changed, moving the projected path a little back to the left, and the projected intensity has increased dramatically from last night.

Here's the map:



Two important things to note about this map:

1. The circles show the "cone" area -- which is the area within which the eye of the storm is expected to be on the day and time specified. NOTE that 5 days out (Monday), that cone shows the center of the storm could be anywhere from Key Largo, FL to the GA-SC border. So do NOT focus on one spot -- a hurricane is not a dot on the map.
2. By Sunday morning, Dorian is expected to intensify to a major hurricane and is projected to make landfall in Florida with 115 mph winds. If that intensity holds, this will be a very dangerous hurricane.

I know some members have been watching the computer models, as I have. For two days, the models have been shifting further and further to the right -- to the point that it looked like this storm MIGHT recurve and move out to sea.

However, those models changed greatly this morning, and have now begun shifting back to the left -- which virtually eliminates recurvature and probably brings the storm ashore on the central Florida coast.

We need to pay close attention to this storm.

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

My question is when do the airlines typically stop flying out of MCO. I don't want to go home any earlier than necessary losing DVC points) nor do I want to be trapped too far into next week.
We are current;y scheduled to fly out on Saturday at 1:00 p.m.
When do the airlines move the planes out of the area?

 

[Tink10]

Deleting reply

 

[JimMIA]

My question is when do the airlines typically stop flying out of MCO. I don't want to go home any earlier than necessary losing DVC points) nor do I want to be trapped too far into next week.
We are current;y scheduled to fly out on Saturday at 1:00 p.m.
When do the airlines move the planes out of the area?

You need to closely follow your airline info. Every airline is different, but you're going to be close to the edge. The NHC's "Earliest Reasonable" arrival time of tropical storm winds is Saturday 8 PM. "Most likely" is Sunday 8 AM -- but those will surely change between now and then.

You guys know there is a thread devoted to airline stuff...right?

 

[kaytieeldr]

You guys know there is a thread devoted to airline stuff...right?

This one https://www.disboards.com/threads/h...lta-change-fee-waived.3766574/#post-61003077?

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

My question is when do the airlines typically stop flying out of MCO. I don't want to go home any earlier than necessary losing DVC points) nor do I want to be trapped too far into next week.
We are current;y scheduled to fly out on Saturday at 1:00 p.m.
When do the airlines move the planes out of the area?

The Weather channel just changed the prediction and said the hurricane will hit FL on Sat and Sun so planes will be moved out of the path of destruction prior to that.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

This one https://www.disboards.com/threads/h...lta-change-fee-waived.3766574/#post-61003077?

Yes lots of good info regarding change flights on that thread

 

[OhDannyBoy]

The Weather channel just changed the prediction and said the hurricane will hit FL on Sat and Sun so planes will be moved out of the path of destruction prior to that.

It will likely change 3 more times before it actually makes landfall. It's too early to really know anything.

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

It will likely change 3 more times before it actually makes landfall. It's too early to really know anything.

But its better to be prepared ahead of time and make adjustments while you can.

 

[OhDannyBoy]

But its better to be prepared ahead of time and make adjustments while you can.

Fair.

 

[JimMIA]

The Weather channel just changed the prediction and said the hurricane will hit FL on Sat and Sun so planes will be moved out of the path of destruction prior to that.

The Weather Channel tends to get a little hysterical at times, so I'll wait and see what the NHC says at 2 PM.

(And I also get hysterical when I remember the WC camera panning the wrong way on a live remote and showing the wind machine!)

But DannyBoy is right -- whatever it is right now will change. Actually, at 4-5 days out, the place I want to be is right in the crosshairs. Then, you know you're safe.

 

[JaxDad]

There has been a significant change in Dorian's status over the last 4 hours. The computer models have changed, moving the projected path a little back to the left, and the projected intensity has increased dramatically from last night.

Here's the map:

View attachment 430309

Two important things to note about this map:

1. The circles show the "cone" area -- which is the area within which the eye of the storm is expected to be on the day and time specified. NOTE that 5 days out (Monday), that cone shows the center of the storm could be anywhere from Key Largo, FL to the GA-SC border. So do NOT focus on one spot -- a hurricane is not a dot on the map.
2. By Sunday morning, Dorian is expected to intensify to a major hurricane and is projected to make landfall in Florida with 115 mph winds. If that intensity holds, this will be a very dangerous hurricane.

I know some members have been watching the computer models, as I have. For two days, the models have been shifting further and further to the right -- to the point that it looked like this storm MIGHT recurve and move out to sea.

However, those models changed greatly this morning, and have now begun shifting back to the left -- which virtually eliminates recurvature and probably brings the storm ashore on the central Florida coast.

We need to pay close attention to this storm.

Thanks @JimMIA! The real question is, "Where is Jim Cantore?"

 

[sponica]

Thanks @JimMIA! The real question is, "Where is Jim Cantore?"

You beat me to it!

 

[OhDannyBoy]

Actually, at 4-5 days out, the place I want to be is right in the crosshairs. Then, you know you're safe.

LOL so so true my friend.

I live in Ft. Lauderdale and have lived in those crosshairs more times than I can count.

 

[ILoveMyDVC]

The Weather channel just changed the prediction and said the hurricane will hit FL on Sat and Sun so planes will be moved out of the path of destruction prior to that.

The question is when. I imagine there is SOP regarding this - it is not whimsical. There must be a wind speed, rain factor that dictates when they stop flying. If it is 11:59 p.m. on Saturday, will they cease all flights Saturday? Will they stop on Thursday to be uber careful. They're airplanes, they move quickly. We've been on the last flights in and out for blizzards. Not ideal but snow is falling when it happens. I am sure there is specific guidance on when the planes stop with a +/-.

 

[JaxDad]

The question is when. I imagine there is SOP regarding this - it is not whimsical. There must be a wind speed, rain factor that dictates when they stop flying. If it is 11:59 p.m. on Saturday, will they cease all flights Saturday? Will they stop on Thursday to be uber careful. They're airplanes, they move quickly. We've been on the last flights in and out for blizzards. Not ideal but snow is falling when it happens. I am sure there is specific guidance on when the planes stop with a +/-.

It may vary by airline or airport, but I'm sure there is a SOP. I've done a lot of work on Navy air stations, and their general criteria is to cease flight operations when 50 knot (~58 mph) winds are forecast in the next 24 hours. There are preliminary steps at the 48 and 72 hour marks to prepare aircraft for evacuations and sheltering.

 

[zoo2tycoon]

There has been a significant change in Dorian's status over the last 4 hours. The computer models have changed, moving the projected path a little back to the left, and the projected intensity has increased dramatically from last night.

Here's the map:

View attachment 430309

Two important things to note about this map:

1. The circles show the "cone" area -- which is the area within which the eye of the storm is expected to be on the day and time specified. NOTE that 5 days out (Monday), that cone shows the center of the storm could be anywhere from Key Largo, FL to the GA-SC border. So do NOT focus on one spot -- a hurricane is not a dot on the map.
2. By Sunday morning, Dorian is expected to intensify to a major hurricane and is projected to make landfall in Florida with 115 mph winds. If that intensity holds, this will be a very dangerous hurricane.

I know some members have been watching the computer models, as I have. For two days, the models have been shifting further and further to the right -- to the point that it looked like this storm MIGHT recurve and move out to sea.

However, those models changed greatly this morning, and have now begun shifting back to the left -- which virtually eliminates recurvature and probably brings the storm ashore on the central Florida coast.

We need to pay close attention to this storm.

STAY SAFE JIM !!!

 

[Shelly F - Ohio]

The question is when. I imagine there is SOP regarding this - it is not whimsical. There must be a wind speed, rain factor that dictates when they stop flying. If it is 11:59 p.m. on Saturday, will they cease all flights Saturday? Will they stop on Thursday to be uber careful. They're airplanes, they move quickly. We've been on the last flights in and out for blizzards. Not ideal but snow is falling when it happens. I am sure there is specific guidance on when the planes stop with a +/-.

Husband who is a pilot said it is usually the day before the hurricane hits. If the plane has a schedule flight that day. If it is a plane that is currently parked and not in use then it will leave 2-3 days before the storm hits that way the pilot will have enough time to get back to FL and move more planes out of the area.

 

[JimMIA]

STAY SAFE JIM !!!

Thanks! Hopefully we'll be out of the way, but you never know with these darn things.

 

[JimMIA]

5 PM Wednesday info

Well, this doesn't look good. I've been watching the models shifting south all day and now it shows in the official forecast track.



The current track calls for the storm to hit the central Florida coast Sunday night and be in the general WDW area Monday afternoon. Dorian is projected to be a Category 3 storm at landfall and a Category 2 over land.

That's the bad news. The good news is that this, too, will change -- so be patient and hope for the best.