Impact of Omicron Variant

[Disneynewb0001]

Starting a thread to gather thoughts on how the Omicron variant will impact DVC, if at all. I wasn't involved in the boards during the emergence of Delta over the summer or the beginning of the Pandemic last Spring. I'm wondering what everyone with more history here thinks about the emergence/potential threat of Omicron and how it might impact DVC for current owners, sellers, or prospective buyers.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I think it's safe to say we won't see something like Spring/Summer 2020 happen ever again, barring something truly catastrophic.

Everything else I am about to say take with a huge grain of salt because I'm not a virologist, epidemiologist, or sociologist.

Early indications with Omicron appear to lean toward it being potentially more contagious than Delta, but also less severe. This actually would be the ideal scenario, so it's possible that some people might just be viewing it through a rosier lens.

But I would expect that you may see mask rules in the parks stick around longer because of it. And you may also see some increased availability if people are either nervous about the virus or just banking their points in the hopes of not having to deal with mask rules the following year.

 

[Disneynewb0001]

We were staying at BLT during a 11 day trip at the end of July into August. So, we were there when WDW transitioned from vaccinated don't need to mask to all need to mask regardless of vaccination status. MK seemed to be less crowded than pre-pandemic during rope drop but attendance picked up throughout the day and with the lack of FP, lines were long as always.

We weren't actively following much of the DVC purchasing board at that time, but I wonder if there were any noticeable changes in DVC market behavior when things were picking up with Delta at that time e.g., short-term drop in resale market prices, more or less listings, changes in ROFR behavior, etc.?

At least as of now, I suspicion that the DVC market impact, if any, of Omicron will follow what might have happened with Delta, that's assuming anything observable to the DVC market happened with Delta, hence my question. That is unless Omicron shows or is perceived to evade natural immunity and vaccination and puts a greater % of folks into the hospital.

 

[davidl81]

We were staying at BLT during a 11 day trip at the end of July into August. So, we were there when WDW transitioned from vaccinated don't need to mask to all need to mask regardless of vaccination status. MK seemed to be less crowded than pre-pandemic during rope drop but attendance picked up throughout the day and with the lack of FP, lines were long as always.

We weren't actively following much of the DVC purchasing board at that time, but I wonder if there were any noticeable changes in DVC market behavior when things were picking up with Delta at that time e.g., short-term drop in resale market prices, more or less listings, changes in ROFR behavior, etc.?

At least as of now, I suspicion that the DVC market impact, if any, of Omicron will follow what might have happened with Delta, that's assuming anything observable to the DVC market happened with Delta, hence my question. That is unless Omicron shows or is perceived to evade natural immunity and vaccination and puts a greater % of folks into the hospital.

For what it’s worth resale market rose a ton last year including during the Delta wave. Lots of factors though caused that price increase (people had extra money from lack of vacations/government stimulus money etc). A lot of those won’t be factors this time and the US has returned to something close to normal. But overall I think unless this variant does something wildly unexpected it will have no impact on DVC sales. I think a lot of society understands that we will have covid with us for a while and there will be various waves of it. With vaccines and boosters widely available people who were more concerned with covid fee relatively safe now, and of course there is a group of people who have less concern about covid and they are going to keep their normal activity regardless of waves/variants etc.
The only thing that would change this is if a variant would not only become easier to transmit, but also become significantly more lethal (which is fairly count intuitive to how the vast majority of virus mutate over time).

 

[Sandisw]

Honestly, I think there won’t be any impact. But, as a reminder, let’s be sure not to get into any discussions about the virus, protocols, etc, as that is not allowed.

Posts will be deleted and the thread closed if that happens. Thanks all!

 

[Lumpy1106]

DVC resale prices have remained strong throughout. I really don't see Omi having much of an impact either.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I don’t think it will have an impact. Right now, Delta is still a far bigger risk. There will be several future variants as well. I don’t see new variants making a huge difference. But you never know!

 

[lovethesun12]

It's not that I think there will be anything new or alarming, but I think it may prolong travel restrictions between countries that may have dropped sooner. I was convinced that by this summer my kids wouldn't have to be tested to enter the U.S. and/or return home but now with this variant I think it's likely that won't be the case. That could maybe have an effect on DVC, if people continue to decide not to travel due to all the red tape. There could be more points in the system people may not need. But who knows..that effect could be minor.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

We were staying at BLT during a 11 day trip at the end of July into August. So, we were there when WDW transitioned from vaccinated don't need to mask to all need to mask regardless of vaccination status. MK seemed to be less crowded than pre-pandemic during rope drop but attendance picked up throughout the day and with the lack of FP, lines were long as always.

We weren't actively following much of the DVC purchasing board at that time, but I wonder if there were any noticeable changes in DVC market behavior when things were picking up with Delta at that time e.g., short-term drop in resale market prices, more or less listings, changes in ROFR behavior, etc.?

At least as of now, I suspicion that the DVC market impact, if any, of Omicron will follow what might have happened with Delta, that's assuming anything observable to the DVC market happened with Delta, hence my question. That is unless Omicron shows or is perceived to evade natural immunity and vaccination and puts a greater % of folks into the hospital.

There was a tiny bit of a dip in the late spring/early summer but then prices roared back fast. I wouldn't expect any dips related to a new variant. There's probably a fairly normal seasonal dip starting but I expect Disney policies to be potentially more impactful than Omicron.

 

[suebeelin]

No impact. I think there’s some serious Covid fatigue. New data shows promising data that 3rd dose is more effective with omicron (and delta) over 2 doses…

 

[sndral]

There was a tiny bit of a dip in the late spring/early summer but then prices roared back fast. I wouldn't expect any dips related to a new variant. There's probably a fairly normal seasonal dip starting but I expect Disney policies to be potentially more impactful than Omicron.

Disney policies + the rapid escalation in the costs of WDW visits!
The dip triggered by MF bills? I hadn’t thought about it, but there may be some who haven’t been to WDW since before spring of 2020 now looking at paying those dues for possibly a 3rd year w/ no WDW trip, perhaps resale inventory will go up. Likewise folks like me who had to cancel trips when WDW closed & are just now returning are awash in points, so are not in the market to buy more. Supply up + demand down = a seasonal dip in price compounded by the recent past?
My crystal ball is historically inaccurate at predicting DVC pricing trends, though.

 

[kboo]

Disney policies + the rapid escalation in the costs of WDW visits!
The dip triggered by MF bills? I hadn’t thought about it, but there may be some who haven’t been to WDW since before spring of 2020 now looking at paying those dues for possibly a 3rd year w/ no WDW trip, perhaps resale inventory will go up. Likewise folks like me who had to cancel trips when WDW closed & are just now returning are awash in points, so are not in the market to buy more. Supply up + demand down = a seasonal dip in price compounded by the recent past?
My crystal ball is historically inaccurate at predicting DVC pricing trends, though.

I'm sorry about the canceled trip - we started spending the banked/canceled points early, and are just now catching up. My answers were based on concerns about the economy, supply chain and labor issues that are caused/correlated with each virus surge. If there starts to be more pressure on DVC owners who are paying MFs and possibly higher risk or subject to travel restrictions,* I could see those owners selling in the next few years. I've been a WDW lover all my life, and even for me the luster has worn off a little.

*We usually take a trip late August/earlySeptember, when most of the US is back in school (we are Northeast), crowds are low, DVC season is low-ish points, and we used to love meeting all the Europeans who were here for weeks. In 2021, during the delta surge, the parks were almost hauntingly empty. It did make us sad, but at least we had a choice.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

WDW is essentially operating under the same policies that were implemented in late July in response to the Delta variant. Omicron means they probably won't soften these rules anytime soon. So essentially no change for a while

 

[AvidDisReader]

As posted above there will be no change for awhile, but that does not mean there will not be an impact. We already are seeing posts on this forum of people who are nervous and canceling trips. So many people have had family that has delt with this disease that you just cannot turn off concern. The effect in all likely hood will continue for several years to come.

 

[nuhusky123]

I do think we will see fewer international visitors for a very long time. assuming countries don’t lock down flights people will be cautious About getting on a plane to risk not being able to get home

domestic travel will continue

 

[Memorymakerfor4]

Disney seems to have settled on a protocol that most people are ok dealing with in the parks and resorts. I think inflation will have a much bigger impact, along with stimulus cash drying up. I hear a lot of grumbling about prices at the grocery store and know people who are starting to delay large purchases like cars.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Disney policies + the rapid escalation in the costs of WDW visits!
The dip triggered by MF bills? I hadn’t thought about it, but there may be some who haven’t been to WDW since before spring of 2020 now looking at paying those dues for possibly a 3rd year w/ no WDW trip, perhaps resale inventory will go up. Likewise folks like me who had to cancel trips when WDW closed & are just now returning are awash in points, so are not in the market to buy more. Supply up + demand down = a seasonal dip in price compounded by the recent past?
My crystal ball is historically inaccurate at predicting DVC pricing trends, though.

Yes, that seasonal dip. And as you mention it may be nearing a breaking point with more owners who haven't been able to use their DVC for awhile. I don't really know about that but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[kboo]

Disney seems to have settled on a protocol that most people are ok dealing with in the parks and resorts. I think inflation will have a much bigger impact, along with stimulus cash drying up. I hear a lot of grumbling about prices at the grocery store and know people who are starting to delay large purchases like cars.

Yes, that seasonal dip. And as you mention it may be nearing a breaking point with more owners who haven't been able to use their DVC for awhile. I don't really know about that but it wouldn't surprise me.

Agree. I think seasonal dip + inflation/economy may make some people sell, and if there are enough contracts out there, possibly less ROFR. (Also a lot of people who were saving during the pandemic due to going out less, traveling less, have been spending down that savings a little.) I'm glad my job doesn't depend on projecting those for the future. I'd be concerned.

At the same time, if anyone were thinking about adding on or buying without financing, the next few months may be a good time to do it...

 

[kilik64]

Disney seems to have settled on a protocol that most people are ok dealing with in the parks and resorts. I think inflation will have a much bigger impact, along with stimulus cash drying up. I hear a lot of grumbling about prices at the grocery store and know people who are starting to delay large purchases like cars.

Enough people start to pull back on spending and we're gonna run right into a nice recession to go along with inflation. Sounds fun!

 

[TinkAgainU]

Was surprised when one of our family groups cancelled a trip to Disneyland (they are typically APs DVC and DCL fanatics) - they had zero safety concerns but cancelled because felt too many shows and other parts of the magic were cut back DUE TO the virus and staffing? Oh, and they were Not happy about the long walk if trams were still not working lol. I actually think that was the last straw. I believe they rented their points and are not adding anymore DVC for a while.