Is Now the Time to Buy a Grand Floridian DVC Resale Contract?

[pkrieger2287]

Curious about everyone's thoughts on what we might see from Grand Floridian in the coming months...

Is Now the Time to Buy a Grand Floridian DVC Resale Contract?​

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blo...tract/?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=dvcfan

 

[thelionqueen]

The time to buy GFV has passed imo. Its direct cost was so good during the summer promo that it lowered the resale value. I bought direct for that reason and thrilled to have “fire sale” points at disneys (perceived) flagship resort.

By one rationale yes buy resale now because the summer promo lowered resale value & rofr is still basically asleep. Even though it awakens occasionally with GFV in its sights for some reason … maybe to reinflate it’s recent value? Who knows? So a case could be made for buying now as its value should most certainly increase esp when it sells out. But my opinion is that anyone buying now is paying more than they would’ve a few months ago and overpaying for non direct benes.

 

[intamin]

The time to buy GFV has passed imo. Its direct cost was so good during the summer promo that it lowered the resale value. I bought direct for that reason and thrilled to have “fire sale” points at disneys (perceived) flagship resort.

By one rationale yes buy resale now because the summer promo lowered resale value & rofr is still basically asleep. Even though it awakens occasionally with GFV in its sights for some reason … maybe to reinflate it’s recent value? Who knows? So a case could be made for buying now as its value should most certainly increase esp when it sells out. But my opinion is that anyone buying now is paying more than they would’ve a few months ago and overpaying for non direct benes.

Agreed. VGF resale prices as they are now are still too high. The aggressive direct VGF pricing worked because the difference isn't significant enough between direct and resale. I'd rather pay the extra 20 dollars per point and remove the resale restrictions.

 

[Ruttangel]

There’s so many more points at VGF now that it will undoubtedly drop in value as more contracts get listed.

I could see it settling around the $130-$140 area by this time next year.

 

[Unclelude]

There’s so many more points at VGF now that it will undoubtedly drop in value as more contracts get listed.

I could see it settling around the $130-$140 area by this time next year.

This is an interesting point.

TLDR - long winded "I have no idea what prices will do!"

Not only do we have almost 2 million more supply from BPK, poly2 and the cabins are just around the corner.

If demand doesn't meet the supply - prices should go down. Even if not VGF points (to a lesser extent). From the macro point level perspective there has to be some effect of extra supply??!?

On the flip side, the point chart at VGF is pretty steep... That could 'mitigate' the volume of new points at VGF a bit ... ie 200 points a OKW 'goes further' than 200 at VGF...

I think it will be interesting to see what happens when it sells out... We bought 150 (split 100/50) ... We really don't plan to sell them, but if prices spiked after sell out, we would consider dumping the 50 points to make a few bucks... I wonder how many other owners had this thought process, or even are planning on it... ( which would increase supply...etc...)

Fun times!

 

[Cfabar1]

My prediction is prices are going to go down at some point. A few reasons why:

1. Many sellers will have bought their contract either during the first phase or during the recent purchase time where the incentives were very good. So their buy in cost will be lower.

2. VGF used to go for such a high price because it was hard to get into, like VGC. With the new expanded phase, it is a much larger resort. So many more contracts, not as hard to get in, etc. all point to lower prices. Basic supply and demand.

3. The current prices I am seeing don't seem competitive with the other monorail resorts - especially BLT which is going to look very attractive after the refurb, and offers a far more affordable point cost per night than VGF. It's quite a premium even right now to pay for the extra 4 years.

4. So far, everyone's fears about there being a run on the 1 BR and 2 BR units haven't come true. They still have pretty good availability at 7 months. Likely because of the high points chart. We love VGF, but often our VGF points are essentially SAP because when you see you make them last that much further at BW, BC, BLT, or other venues, we often move them somewhere else. Based on what we have read on these boards, I think many other people are doing that too. So, some might say (though I actually wouldn't because I worry about what happens post-2042, and I think it will be way harder to get into non-home resort availability at that time) why pay a huge cost difference for them if I'm going to use them the same way as someone who buys SSR is going to. I think that will affect the price and buyer pool moving forward.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

I definitely disagree with this suggestion: "All signs suggest a quick and drastic return to these pricing levels once it again reaches this sold-out threshold on direct sales. ...this could potentially lead to an immediate 25% increase in the cost of Grand Floridian [resale prices]."

The resale market doesn't seem to be supporting such a jump right now. Nearly $200/pt for VGF resale? Nah. Feels a bit like "the sky is falling."

 

[Jlo85]

I think we’ll see a lot of sellers in the next few years.

First, I foresee availability issues. A lot of people buying 150 point buy-ins at a resort where 150 points doesn’t go that far. Owners will be frustrated.

Second, the units are nice now, but historically VGF villas haven’t aged well. It happens at all resorts, but it hits harder when it’s at a ‘luxurious’ resort like VGF.

Third, it used to be a small, exclusive resort. That kept prices high. It just isn’t anymore.

 

[DVCsloth]

If VGF drops quite a bit, wouldn't all the resorts pretty much do the same? I think it obviously depends on the economy and I think people are hesitant to make any large purchases or commitments right now. Disney seems to be flooding the market with DVC right now.

 

[intamin]

I think we’ll see a lot of sellers in the next few years.

First, I foresee availability issues. A lot of people buying 150 point buy-ins at a resort where 150 points doesn’t go that far. Owners will be frustrated.

Second, the units are nice now, but historically VGF villas haven’t aged well. It happens at all resorts, but it hits harder when it’s at a ‘luxurious’ resort like VGF.

Third, it used to be a small, exclusive resort. That kept prices high. It just isn’t anymore.

This is a good point. 150 at VGF just doesn’t go far plain and simple.

So many people added on this summer at the 150 pt mark because that’s where the incentives were targeted but 150 gets you like what.. 6 nights in a studio if that? sometimes 5? Don’t even think about holidays and etc.

You can’t even stay in a 1BR for a week at VGF even after banking the full allotment of your points for the majority of the year with a 150 pt contract.

A good chunk of people will be trading their points out. I still do think that the 2BRs will be fairly difficult to get but like we’ve seen already it is very easy to get into the 1BR and studios at VGF as a result of people trading out.

 

[Cfabar1]

If VGF drops quite a bit, wouldn't all the resorts pretty much do the same? I think it obviously depends on the economy and I think people are hesitant to make any large purchases or commitments right now. Disney seems to be flooding the market with DVC right now.

Yes that’s another good point. It to me seems likely that prices are going to start to decline on the resale market across the board.

High interest rates
Possible coming recession
Way more resorts and options so harder to get to stay anywhere
restrictions are going to be a more meaningful part of the equation
More supply means less demand

I personally think Disney is pushing more DVC because it lowers their operating costs. I think it’s unlikely a deluxe hotel is ever built again as a stand alone. With the exception of Yacht club I don’t think any deluxe resort doesn’t include a DVC component.

 

[kboo]

This is a good point. 150 at VGF just doesn’t go far plain and simple.

So many people added on this summer at the 150 pt mark because that’s where the incentives were targeted but 150 gets you like what.. 6 nights in a studio if that? sometimes 5? Don’t even think about holidays and etc.

You can’t even stay in a 1BR for a week at VGF even after banking the full allotment of your points for the majority of the year with a 150 pt contract.

Our first VGF contract was 200 points resale. 6 nights in a studio over Easter break was 199 points then … and we quickly added on 100 points. And then …

 

[tidefan]

4. So far, everyone's fears about there being a run on the 1 BR and 2 BR units haven't come true. They still have pretty good availability at 7 months. Likely because of the high points chart.

I actually think what has come to pass is what our fear was. It is the Deluxe Studios in the original VGF building that are much harder to get, even at 11 months. That is what has affected us, as we are original VGF1 owners that have no desire to stay at BPK...

 

[Matty B13]

There’s so many more points at VGF now that it will undoubtedly drop in value as more contracts get listed.

I could see it settling around the $130-$140 area by this time next year.

Yes, VGF 1.0 had far fewer points available on the resale market because most owner bought where they wanted to stay, and the studios were much nicer. So now that they have double the amount of points at the resort, the shortage of available contracts on the resale market is no longer the case. I'm guessing over the next couple of years you will see a lot of contracts come on the resale market mostly because of the economy and also owners not as in love with BPK as VGF 1.0.

 

[DVCsloth]

I actually think what has come to pass is what our fear was. It is the Deluxe Studios in the original VGF building that are much harder to get, even at 11 months. That is what has affected us, as we are original VGF1 owners that have no desire to stay at BPK...

Luckily, we usually use our VGF1 points for 1 BR's and occasionally a Deluxe Studio. I think the way Disney did this to original VGF owners was not very nice. The only possible benefit to the original owners was that they probably added the walkway to make VGF2 more attractive. I think some people will prefer VGF2 hotel room layout, but for us we liked the resort the way it was. Still love VGF, but it has gone from favorite to number 3 of the resorts we own. We haven't tried to book a Deluxe Studio since VGF2, but it looks like they are gone shortly after 11 months during our usual times we go.

 

[intamin]

Luckily, we usually use our VGF1 points for 1 BR's and occasionally a Deluxe Studio. I think the way Disney did this to original VGF owners was not very nice. The only possible benefit to the original owners was that they probably added the walkway to make VGF2 more attractive. I think some people will prefer VGF2 hotel room layout, but for us we liked the resort the way it was. Still love VGF, but it has gone from favorite to number 3 of the resorts we own. We haven't tried to book a Deluxe Studio since VGF2, but it looks like they are gone shortly after 11 months during our usual times we go.

I feel bad for the people who bought resale VGF prior to the addition to the existing association. I especially feel bad for the people who bought direct VGF at sold out prices. BPKs location seems nice but everyone seems to have issues with the rooms being essentially just a cheap flip and Disney not taking the opportunity to update the prior infrastructure of the building.

 

[Sandisw]

There’s so many more points at VGF now that it will undoubtedly drop in value as more contracts get listed.

I could see it settling around the $130-$140 area by this time next year.

I think so too if people are booking for studios. So far, the resort studios of Lv and TPV have been available to get at 7 months.

Just don’t think you need home resort advantage for them. Larger units yes…I couldn’t get a 1 bedroom SV at 7 months for my winter trips with my SSR points like have for years. I was happy I had VGF points to book it.

So, I do think we may see it settle lower as time goes on.

 

[CarolynFH]

they probably added the walkway to make VGF2 more attractive.

I missed this - what walkway?

 

[Matty B13]

I missed this - what walkway?

The one from the Grand Floridian to Magic Kingdom along Seven Seas Lagoon.

 

[sndral]

…
Second, the units are nice now, but historically VGF villas haven’t aged well. It happens at all resorts, but it hits harder when it’s at a ‘luxurious’ resort like VGF.
…

I’ve owned at VGF for several years & stay there every other year, & follow reports about the resort & can’t recall complaints about the villas not aging well other than issues w/ the TVs in the mirrors in the bubble tub room. IME the villas I’ve stayed at, even right before refurb., have been in great shape. I have read reports of other resorts showing wear early on (BLT comes to mind) but I’ve not seen a flood of complaints about VGF. Whether that is true w/ BPK remains to be seen, but the finishes in BPK are essentially the same as the GF outer building hotel room refurbs they’ve just completed.
VGF1 w/ it’s 2.5 million points was the smallest DVC resort, adding BLT’s roughly 1.8 million points means it’ll be a midsize resort going forward https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/gra...s-at-disney-s-grand-floridian-resort-spa-2022 thus I’d expect supply of resale VGF points to go up in the future exerting downward pressure on price.

I missed this - what walkway?

I think they’re referring to the walkway to MK, which I love that they finally did, but I am not convinced that they finally got around to finishing it just to help sell VGF2, but, they built the Skyliner which you could argue was to help sell Riviera, so what do I know .