"Is the DDP worth it?" A 2012 per-credit cost analysis

[Steve Mahanahan]

I see a ton of people asking here and there if the DDP is worth it, if free dining is worth paying rack rate at the hotel/staying on property, things like that. So I decided to crunch the numbers and put it out there so people can look at the per-credit cost rather than the lump sum you pay when you book your trip. Enjoy!

Note: This analysis makes the following assumptions:

- You're staying for six nights. The more nights you stay, the higher the per-credit cost is (but not by much, typically less than a dollar per extra night.)

- The refillable mug you get with each of the plans comes out to about $15 with tax.

- The average snack credit would have cost you $3 with tax out of pocket. I actually think I'm lowballing this a bit.

- You use all of your meal and snack credits. If you don't think you'll do this or don't want to plan your meals in advance, the (non-QS) dining plan is a bad idea. If you have extra snack credits, my wife and I love to go dump them all at Goofy's after checking out of the resort, since your credits expire at 11:59 PM on the day you check out.

I also didn't review the Premium/Platinum plans, because if you're interested in those you're probably already doing the math yourselves.

The math!

Quick Service Dining Plan (Adult): 2 Quick Service credits, 1 snack per night

Cost: $209.94 per adult
Cost minus snacks/mug: $176.94 = ~$14.75 per meal credit to break even


Quick Service Dining Plan (Child): 2 Quick Service credits, 1 snack per night

Cost: $71.94 per child
Cost minus snacks/mug: $38.94 = ~$3.25 per meal credit to break even

Quick-Service per-meal cost for a family of 4 (2 adults, 2 children) to break even: $35.98


Disney Dining Plan (Adult, non-peak): 1 Quick Service credit, 1 Talbe Service credit, 1 Snack per night

Cost: $309.24 per adult
Cost minus snacks/mug: $276.24 - ~$23.02 per meal credit to break even


Disney Dining Plan (Adult, peak): 1 Quick Service credit, 1 Talbe Service credit, 1 Snack per night

Cost: $321.24 per adult
Cost minus snacks/mug: $288.24 = ~$24.02 per meal credit to break even


Disney Dining Plan (Child, non-peak): 1 Quick Service credit, 1 Talbe Service credit, 1 Snack per night

Cost: $90.12 per child
Cost minus snacks/mug: $57.12 = $4.76 per meal credit to break even


Disney Dining Plan (Child, peak): 1 Quick Service credit, 1 Talbe Service credit, 1 Snack per night

Cost: $96.12 per child
Cost minus snacks/mug: $63.12 = ~$5.26 per meal credit to break even

Disney Dining Plan non-peak per-meal cost for a family of 4 (2 adults, 2 children) to break even: $55.56

Disney Dining Plan peak per-meal cost for a family of 4 (2 adults, 2 children) to break even: $58.56


Deluxe Dining Plan (Adult, non-peak): 3 meal credits, 2 snacks per night

Cost: $514.92 per adult
Cost minus snacks/mug: $463.92 = ~$25.77 per meal credit to break even


Deluxe Dining Plan (Adult, peak): 3 meal credits, 2 snacks per night

Cost: $537.12 per adult
Cost minus snacks/mug: $486.12 = ~$27.01 per meal credit to break even



Deluxe Dining Plan (Child, non-peak): 3 meal credits, 2 snacks per night

Cost: $142.74 per child
Cost minus snacks/mug: $91.74 = ~$5.10 per meal credit to break even


Deluxe Dining Plan (Child, peak): 3 meal credits, 2 snacks per night

Cost: $154.74 per child
Cost minus snacks/mug: $103.74 = ~$5.76 per meal credit to break even

Deluxe Dining Plan non-peak per-meal cost for a family of 4 (2 adults, 2 children) to break even: $61.74

Deluxe Dining Plan peak per-meal cost for a family of 4 (2 adults, 2 children) to break even: $65.54


Overall

All of the child plans are amazing savings - with the average kid's meal in the parks costing around $5.50 every plan outside of the Deluxe at Peak times at least breaks even (and honestly, are you going to pay for the Deluxe plan to eat QS your entire trip?) One or two character meals/buffets on the DDP/DxDP can just about pay for a child's plan all by themselves.

The adult plans may require a little more decision-making. The quick-service plan is break-even, maybe 5-10% savings at best. You could theoretically do a $20+ QS meal every time (Chicken and Rib combo, large soda, and dessert at Cosmic Ray's is over $20 with tax) but on average you're probably going to see $15-17 QS meals in most of the locations. At least you don't have to bring cash!

The standard DDP can be even trickier - you need to spend $23-24 per credit to break even, but half of those credits are for $15-20 QS meals. This means your TS meals need to average $30 or so per meal. Certainly possible if you have most of your TS meals for dinner and order entrees on the expensive side, just remember to factor in additional costs at TS restaurants if you want appetizers, alcohol, etc.

The Deluxe plan, in my opinion, is an excellent deal as long as you're big on the Signature restaurants and you don't mind spending 2-3 hours of park time per day eating. You need only a few dollars more per credit over the DDP to break even since you have 3 credits to spend per day, and all of your lunch/dinner meals include an appetizer (which can run anywhere from $7-15+ depending on the restaurant) so as long as the majority of your meals are TS you won't have any problems coming out ahead.

I hope this helps people make their decisions!

 

[BubMunkeyBles]

Thanks for the analysis. It looks like to me unless its free the only one that would be worth it for us is the DxDP.

 

[Cafeen]

A note about the calculations. We've found that by solving the QSDP per QS credit "cost" and plugging that into the DDP calculation, we can come up with some better TS target numbers.

Also, since the mugs are not included in all levels, and the "cost" per day of the mug will lessen with longer stays, it's easier to just include it as a bonus.

The formulas look like:

• QSDP: 2QS + 1S = $34.99
• DDP: 1TS + 1QS + 1S = $51.54
• DxDDP: 3Dx + 2S = $85.52

Plug in the $3 for the snacks (we've used the same number in the past) and we get
QSDP: 2QS = 31.99
DDP : 1TS + 1QS = 48.54
DxDDP: 3Dx = 79.52

Solving QSDP:
QS = 31.99 / 2 = $15.995 (Or $16)

Plugging the QS value in for DDP
TS + 16 = 48.54 => TS = 48.54 - 16 => TS = 32.54

Dx is easy now still:
Dx = 79.52 / 3 = 26.506666... or 26.51

So the numbers are close, but that bringing a better TS number for DDP allows users to better target and judge the differences in TS and QS cost. Also, since the QS numbers are based on QSDP, and they don't go up during peak pricing, the holiday "per Credit" for DDP is simply added directly to the TS target. So for 2012, just bump it up by $2. For Dx, add 4/3, or $1.33... to each credit.

As a note, I'm not "slamming" your calculations or anything of the such, simply providing what a few of us over here have already calculated as a different way to look at it .

Thanks for the analysis. It looks like to me unless its free the only one that would be worth it for us is the DxDP.

For 2012, the margins on DDP and QSDP are very slim. Disney's even advertising QSDP as "Save up to 5%", which is a pretty steep drop from what they were offering before.

DDP CAN be worth it, but it takes work to get it that way.

DxDDP's break even moved up to 73% of credits used at TS when leaving the rest off (was at 70% before), though you can still break even at spending 57% at TS and the other 43% at QS (pricing based off of 5% increase at TS and using the "Middle Average" which was the average minus the top 25 and bottom 24).

 

[2forMe]

I find it worth it for kids for sure. Or if you plan on many buffets. Or if you typically order a drink and dessert with your meals...which i do not. When not at disney i usually only have a glass of water and no dessert.
That being said i get the ddp when it is "free"...actually the QS plan as we stay at values and then i upgrade to the ddp which is not expensive since we are 1adult and 2 kids so the upgrade cost is only for me. I think the prices change next year so not sure the upgrade (and having to pay tips) will be worth it.

 

[kimberwee]

I agree that the DDP could end up costing more than what people would have spent oop...you just have to analyze the number of people in your party, the restaurants you like and what you would order from those places.

For us, it is almost break even. My DH and I share meals when we dine out at home because we are not huge eaters. But, most of the restaurants on our trip will be buffet (chef Mickeys) or special dining like CRT...if you have these on your list, the DDP may be totally worth it. It will be for us this time...

 

[havoc315]

Excellent analysis, but I believe the mug makes things very difficult.
While it is fair to assume use of all the meal and snack credits, the mug value is far more subjective.

Factoring in the mug, makes the children's meals look very cheap. Personally, I would never even let my children use the mugs. I don't let my kids drink soda or artificial juices-- which are really the only beverages available. (my 6 year old doesn't drink coffee or iced tea either).
Take out the mugs, and the break even mark for kids is suddenly $2 more, and the potential savings don't look nearly as enormous.

Many reasonable adults would pass on the mugs as well. We had them on our last trip because we were on deluxe - of 4 mugs, we used 1, 1 time while at the pool.

Thus, it is difficult to use Disney's set price for the mugs, as their actual value. Afterall, they could set the mug price at $500... And then claim you are saving 90%. (they cant do that so easily in restaurants, which are competing for non-resort-guest business).

 

[MarkF0wle]

Hey guys!

I really like all the analysis coming in this thread. It's great timing for me; I'm currently doing a lot of study on dining prices (with WDW being a huge focus for me). I'm building up a spreadsheet that should take a lot of guess work out of this.

But to put some data into this!

So currently looking at some average meal prices around the world. The data is pointing to the fact that for the QSDP & the DDP for adults the savings are minimal. For example, for 1 adult staying 6 nights = on average the saving is only around $40. Of course eating higher priced foods would increase the savings. But really there are lots of situations that would change this. For example using the DDP with only 1 TS credit it is far more useful to use this credit at dinner as the average dinner meal price is $41, opposed to $26 for breakfast.

So for all statistical purposes as an adult the QSDP & DDP are basically a way to pay upfront for your meals.

I haven't yet run any data for the deluxe plan; but the potential for savings are much greater. Although that said the potential for wastage is also high; not trying to waste any credits will generally mean smaller meals which will mean lower average meal costs & in turn less savings. There are so many variables.

Kids plans are a much brighter picture.

For example over 6 days on the DDP the averages suggest a saving of $98. But that does assume the child always eats from the children's menu; which can be very restrictive. Even a few meals paying OOP for a child bored of eating 1 of the few standard meals offered really ruins the savings! So the savings could be eroded really quickly!

Finally a family of 4 (2 adults + 2 kids), staying 6 nights on the DDP. The averages suggest it would be a saving of around $290, not to be sniffed at.

 

[sharonabe]

Disney's website still says "up to 10% per ADULT" for the 2012 QSDP. (The caps and bold are not in the Disney version, but it does say adult.)

 

[Cafeen]

Disney's website still says "up to 10% per ADULT" for the 2012 QSDP. (The caps and bold are not in the Disney version, but it does say adult.)

Hm, I swear I saw 5% somewhere. It's probably on a version of the page somewhere, they do this type of thing a lot (it could even be content on one app server and not on the other, I wouldn't put it past Disney not updating all content servers equally, nor having this type of stuff not be data driven...)

Once 2012 prices come out, the break-even (erm, that is the number of credits you can leave left over) points will be a bit easier to determine. Right now I'm using a high estimate of 5% over the 2011 prices (which were generated by some guy who then tried to sell the info here, but I beta tested the sheet and stole it all /insertevilsmiley. Of course, I wouldn't have done that had he not been booted for doing that )

 

[sharonabe]

Hey guys!

I really like all the analysis coming in this thread. It's great timing for me; I'm currently doing a lot of study on dining prices (with WDW being a huge focus for me). I'm building up a spreadsheet that should take a lot of guess work out of this.

But to put some data into this!

So currently looking at some average meal prices around the world. The data is pointing to the fact that for the QSDP & the DDP for adults the savings are minimal. For example, for 1 adult staying 6 nights = on average the saving is only around $40. Of course eating higher priced foods would increase the savings. But really there are lots of situations that would change this. For example using the DDP with only 1 TS credit it is far more useful to use this credit at dinner as the average dinner meal price is $41, opposed to $26 for breakfast.

So for all statistical purposes as an adult the QSDP & DDP are basically a way to pay upfront for your meals.

I haven't yet run any data for the deluxe plan; but the potential for savings are much greater. Although that said the potential for wastage is also high; not trying to waste any credits will generally mean smaller meals which will mean lower average meal costs & in turn less savings. There are so many variables.

Kids plans are a much brighter picture.

For example over 6 days on the DDP the averages suggest a saving of $98. But that does assume the child always eats from the children's menu; which can be very restrictive. Even a few meals paying OOP for a child bored of eating 1 of the few standard meals offered really ruins the savings! So the savings could be eroded really quickly!

Finally a family of 4 (2 adults + 2 kids), staying 6 nights on the DDP. The averages suggest it would be a saving of around $290, not to be sniffed at.

I would love to see your math that suggests that average of $98 savings for kids.

Even if you do dinner buffets EVERY night, the kids prices are around $18. So, there's $3 + $5.50 (CS)+$3.50 (snack) = $12 x 6 = $72 savings.

You take any of those dinner buffets away and go to a regular sit down, and that goes away quickly. Regular sit down kids' meals are around $8.60 (some are more, and some are a little less). $8.60 + $5.50 + $3.50 = $17.60...your savings now is only $2.60 for that day instead of $12.

If you're going to do an average, then 3 days of buffets and 3 days of non-buffets is only a $43.80 savings.

Still nothing to sniff at, but it's half of your estimate and it also assumes you're going to eat the way the DDP dictates and use EVERY entitlement.

 

[MarkF0wle]

Disney's website still says "up to 10% per ADULT" for the 2012 QSDP. (The caps and bold are not in the Disney version, but it does say adult.)

Crunching the numbers for 2011. Using the same example of 6 nights, the averages suggest that the QSDP would actually be a $1 loss.

To put this is perspective, the average CS meal cost in WDW is <$9 for breakfast & <$14 for lunch/dinner. So the $1 also assumed you use your credits for lunch/dinner all days, skipping breakfast. Using a credit for breakfast makes for a greater loss.

Now, using some greater planning it would be possible to make the QSDP work for you. I suppose the key wording is the "upto to 10%" here. To get anywhere near a 10% saving really you're using more planning than is probably worth it.

 

[Cafeen]

Now, using some greater planning it would be possible to make the QSDP work for you. I suppose the key wording is the "upto to 10%" here. To get anywhere near a 10% saving really you're using more planning than is probably worth it.

Yep, it's possible. For example, my taco meal (Tacos + Chips + Drink + Churros) at Cantina last year was $19.20. So planning ahead and picking out the higher priced areas can pretty easily bring you up to those numbers.

However, making QSDP work that well for you takes just as much planning as making the other plans work for you. The only differences is that you get a list of places and meals, instead of actual ADRs.

I'm sure a lot of people see QSDP as the "easy" one without a need to make plans for it, which just isn't true.

 

[MarkF0wle]

I would love to see your math that suggests that average of $98 savings for kids.

Even if you do dinner buffets EVERY night, the kids prices are around $18. So, there's $3 + $5.50 (CS)+$3.50 (snack) = $12 x 6 = $72 savings.

You take any of those dinner buffets away and go to a regular sit down, and that goes away quickly. Regular sit down kids' meals are around $8.60 (some are more, and some are a little less). $8.60 + $5.50 + $3.50 = $17.60...your savings now is only $2.60 for that day instead of $12.

If you're going to do an average, then 3 days of buffets and 3 days of non-buffets is only a $43.80 savings.

Still nothing to sniff at, but it's half of your estimate and it also assumes you're going to eat the way the DDP dictates and use EVERY entitlement.

OKay so my Math:

Assuming we eat in the parks, the average children's TS meal cost is $20.78 (B), $14.02 (L) & $13.94 (D) - the breakfast cost being higher due to the majority being character breakfasts. Current average CS meal costs are $5.86 (B) & $6.11 (L & D).

So best case scenario would be $20.78 + $6.11 + $3.50 = $30.39 the cost being $11.99 a night. Saving 18.40 x 6 = $110.40 (without including the mug cost, $126.40 with the mug).

Being more appropriate you would probably do CS for breakfast & TS for dinner: $5.86 + $13.94 + $3.50 = $23.30 a night. $11.31 saving a day, so $67.86 saving. If you include a $16 mug cost that takes it to a saving of $83.86 for 6 days.

If you work out an average of the 2 it would indicate a saving of $105.13 saving over 6 days. My estimate of $98 included more specific factors based around an average visit, combination of breakfast/dinner TS/CS but also more WDW world wide averages.

Everything is very individual though, depending on how you use the credits you can see savings as low of $30, anywhere up to $110. Lots of things are averaged; and that does mean for 'accumulated errors'. It's goes to prove why this question can never be answered accurately in general. It's very complicated & individual. I'm not saving you will definitely get $98 savings, but it's just what the numbers say right now.

 

[MarkF0wle]

Yep, it's possible. For example, my taco meal (Tacos + Chips + Drink + Churros) at Cantina last year was $19.20. So planning ahead and picking out the higher priced areas can pretty easily bring you up to those numbers.

However, making QSDP work that well for you takes just as much planning as making the other plans work for you. The only differences is that you get a list of places and meals, instead of actual ADRs.

I'm sure a lot of people see QSDP as the "easy" one without a need to make plans for it, which just isn't true.

Absolutely true. Finding & using meals for higher value is the way to really make the savings. For every $19+ meal out there; is also some $12 meals.

Let's be honest, Disney is a business. Everything they do is to make a profit, it's the old adage the house always wins. On average for every person that really makes the plan work, there are 2 people that don't. Plan ahead; research & make sure you order everything you're entitled to will be sure you're one of those that saves!

 

[sharonabe]

Okay, now I understand your math...you're averaging the buffet and non-buffet...but where are you getting your prices?

I'm seeing character breakfasts buffets still in the $15-$17 range (except Akershus), and the kids' CS meals are $5.86 just about everywhere for lunch and dinner.

One other discrepancy for you...the 2012 Kids' DDP is $15.00 not $11.99.

 

[MarkF0wle]

Okay, now I understand your math...you're averaging the buffet and non-buffet...but where are you getting your prices?

I'm seeing character breakfasts buffets still in the $15-$17 range (except Akershus), and the kids' CS meals are $5.86 just about everywhere for lunch and dinner.

One other discrepancy for you...the 2012 Kids' DDP is $15.00 not $11.99.

Yeah, as with everything. You can make numbers look however you want. Most buffets you're right are. The parks, still has CRT which bumps up the average (quite artificially). The overall average across WDW is about $14 for a kids TS breakfast. Across the WDW entirely the CS lunch/dinner cost is $5.33; but some of the CS restaurants in Magic Kingdom offer a kids desert like a cookie. Causes some inconsistencies in the numbers.

The average approach usually smooths over many cracks. But not always.

I am working with the 2011 price because the menu prices are from now. I will assume the prices on the menus will increase; my assumption is they will rise in proportion with the DDP prices.

All the prices are either from sources there or having been recently with pictures, the Disney official menus. Also allears.net as a last resort. All of my estimates also include tax where appropriate.

I'm working on the spreadsheet so eventually I will be able to share it & people will be able to input their own individual 'plan' & see if they will save. When the word average is introduced is when the complications arise. There are as many different permutations to combinations/meals as there are people. It's all a guestimate in the end.

 

[havoc315]

Hm, I swear I saw 5% somewhere. It's probably on a version of the page somewhere, they do this type of thing a lot (it could even be content on one app server and not on the other, I wouldn't put it past Disney not updating all content servers equally, nor having this type of stuff not be data driven...)

Once 2012 prices come out, the break-even (erm, that is the number of credits you can leave left over) points will be a bit easier to determine. Right now I'm using a high estimate of 5% over the 2011 prices (which were generated by some guy who then tried to sell the info here, but I beta tested the sheet and stole it all /insertevilsmiley. Of course, I wouldn't have done that had he not been booted for doing that )

Prices were all recently adjusted... So expect the current prices to be in effect for the first 2/3rd of 2012. Most notably, some of the character breakfasts saw huge increases (guess Disney figures you are paying for the characters, not food). Kids meals went up 50 cents at qs. Sodas went up at qs. Entree adjustments vary from 0-10%.

 

[havoc315]

I am working with the 2011 price because the menu prices are from now. I will assume the prices on the menus will increase; my assumption is they will rise in proportion with the DDP prices.

All the prices are either from sources there or having been recently with pictures, the Disney official menus. Also allears.net as a last resort. All of my estimates also include tax where appropriate.

Current prices (assuming looking at September updates) are the 2012 prices. (at least first 2/3rds of 2012).
For most of 2011, qs kids prices were $5. They very recently (last 2 weeks) were raised by 50 cents across the board - first increase in kids prices in several years. There will not likely be further price increases for at least another year.

 

[Mjkre]

For me, this is a fascinating thread. Unfortunately, when I try to analyze this whole thing, my brain starts to shut down. Would any of you care to plug in my family of 5 (two adults, one disney adult who eats like a child, and two disney children) into your calculations and tell me where we would end up using the DDP? We typically eat one counter service and one sit-down dinner. We eat what we want---so the average works for us. One dinner buffet per trip. We are going for 9 nights. I already believe we will lose money on my "disney adult..age 11," but the rest of the caluculation is driving me slowly insane trying to figure it out.....

 

[Cafeen]

For me, this is a fascinating thread. Unfortunately, when I try to analyze this whole thing, my brain starts to shut down. Would any of you care to plug in my family of 5 (two adults, one disney adult who eats like a child, and two disney children) into your calculations and tell me where we would end up using the DDP? We typically eat one counter service and one sit-down dinner. We eat what we want---so the average works for us. One dinner buffet per trip. We are going for 9 nights. I already believe we will lose money on my "disney adult..age 11," but the rest of the caluculation is driving me slowly insane trying to figure it out.....

The take away from all the detailed math is the target numbers.

Take a look at where you're planning to eat and see if you make those numbers. Essentially, aim to spend around $15-$16 (before tax) per adult at CS locations, and ~$30-32 at TS locations (before tax and tip) and you'll be fine. Since the CS target is a bit high, if they're all a bit lower, then you can adjust your TS plan to take better advantage and make up the difference.

For the 11 year old, it's also possible to pay OOP for kids' meals he (or she) may order, then roll those adult credits into an additional meal (or 2 or whatever).

Now, don't worry about hitting the targets at every meal, so long as the majority are over and the averages work out, that's what you're looking for.

Don't forget to include the subjective value (up or down) of the plan itself after everything is done. For example, since I'm bad at saving money (I like my toys), the pre-paid and pre-budgeted nature of the plan works well for me. I typically place a "value" of about $50 overall on this, so even if I were behind by that much, I'd likely still pick it up as it's worth about that much to me to be able not to have to worry about the cash during the trip. This works inversely too, as if you feel that the limiting nature of DDP is something that's less than ideal, you may decide it's not worth it even if you're saving ~$50 or so.