Island Tower at Polynesian Villas & Bungalows

[Kailunkat]

We sold our PVB contract in four days after listing. We didn’t price as high as many of the current contracts for sale, but we were towards the top of our suggested listing prices by reasonable brokers. We just wanted to clear the commission hurdle so we could buy more points in total or buy direct and resale. And we were not in a place where we had to sell. We provided our full 2025 points. I wonder how much of this recent pricing is being fueled by the sellers and how much is due to the brokers trying to sell the resale market a tall tale on the value of the PVB resale to get into the new tower? One DISer reported they wanted to put in an offer on a PVB resale and the broker lectured them on how the market has totally changed and prices are now $180-$200pp.

Yes that was me! (Also, pretty sure I was the lower/2nd bid on the contract you sold - good for you for getting a deal for above market and selling at the peak!) I got quite a telling off by the broker by offering a max of $165 pp about how "the current Broker Price Opinion Value estimate is at $188.00 per point" for PVB. Since then pricing has been fairly consistent across all brokers at between $185- $200+pp but the contracts haven't moved/there are more overall on the market (19 tonight it looks like) versus last week (I think at one point there were only 6 available total across all resale). So my guess is that the actual average price will end up somewhere around $175-180pp for May.

I'm really interested to see where the ROFR point ends up for May and if there is another peak for resale pricing once the next press release from Disney comes out. More information on the rooms and amenities *SHOULD* be coming in the next two weeks prior to the cash bookings starting. Unless DVD also announces a date when direct sales will begin, that preview/info dump will probably trigger another spike in resale pricing. The best thing DVD could do for their future direct sales at this point is to set a date when that will start. Of course, unless they have filed the paperwork (which we know they haven't yet) they probably can't set a date or pricing. It's for sure a missed opportunity for them with the demand so high right now.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Seems like an easy upgrade to me, probably can sell in 190s-200s given how small those contracts are. Might as well bump up to the 200 point incentive and just buy it as 150/50 and get pretty darn close to breaking even with no restrictions on all your points.

Yeah, I would ordinarily never advise someone to do this, and you may take a haircut on the broker’s fee (it’s hard to speculate in DVC points because the transaction costs are wild!), but my guess is that incentives for 200 points will be at least a few bucks better than incentives at the 150 mark (the tower is pricey and they need people who can afford to stay in preferred view rooms)— if you can sell for $200/pt you might come out ahead at least before broker fees, and all your points would be direct. I’d list a small contract at $210 and see what happens if there’s no penalty for failing to sell. I wonder if you can negotiate a broker commission down since these things appear to be selling themselves and at a very high point value!

I'm really interested to see where the ROFR point ends up for May and if there is another peak for resale pricing once the next press release from Disney comes out. …The best thing DVD could do for their future direct sales at this point is to set a date when that will start. Of course, unless they have filed the paperwork (which we know they haven't yet) they probably can't set a date or pricing. It's for sure a missed opportunity for them with the demand so high right now.

I agree that DVC is leaving a lot of money on the table by dithering on releasing sales info. I bet a lot of the people paying over $175/pt resale were people they could have converted to $200/pt direct after incentives. If they said “we will be selling at $240 on July 1” it would probably slow down the resale frenzy…but for now, the resale frenzy is helping them because it is easier to sell Poly Tower at $250/pt if there are people going nuts bidding resale into the $200s.

 

[CastAStone]

Yes that was me! (Also, pretty sure I was the lower/2nd bid on the contract you sold - good for you for getting a deal for above market and selling at the peak!) I got quite a telling off by the broker by offering a max of $165 pp about how "the current Broker Price Opinion Value estimate is at $188.00 per point" for PVB. Since then pricing has been fairly consistent across all brokers at between $185- $200+pp but the contracts haven't moved/there are more overall on the market (19 tonight it looks like) versus last week (I think at one point there were only 6 available total across all resale). So my guess is that the actual average price will end up somewhere around $175-180pp for May.

That broker is only offering $138/pt to “instant” buy a medium sized contract with no 2024 points themselves…plus seller pays all closing costs…

 

[Sandisw]

We sold our PVB contract in four days after listing. We didn’t price as high as many of the current contracts for sale, but we were towards the top of our suggested listing prices by reasonable brokers. We just wanted to clear the commission hurdle so we could buy more points in total or buy direct and resale. And we were not in a place where we had to sell. We provided our full 2025 points. I wonder how much of this recent pricing is being fueled by the sellers and how much is due to the brokers trying to sell the resale market a tall tale on the value of the PVB resale to get into the new tower? One DISer reported they wanted to put in an offer on a PVB resale and the broker lectured them on how the market has totally changed and prices are now $180-$200pp.

With ROFR back in play for PVB, it’s easy for sellers and brokers to try for more and it’s making buyers pay more because they want to clear that hurdle.

 

[Sandisw]

Historically Disney never, ever ROFR’d resorts in active sales, which makes sense, why buy the thing that will take you the longest to sell?

Now Disney is buying back almost exclusively contracts in active sales, or at least with active promotions. Just a total 180 from previous practice.

It’s hard for me to believe they’re doing it to set a price floor because they’ve never done anything to make me think that they cared about resale prices; in fact, the 2 biggest price drops in the past 20 years (2009 and Covid) have both been egged on by a suspension of ROFR that lasted for months and months.

So why then? Is there some technical reason? Why did they buy VGF and Poly but have watched as Riviera resale fell from $160s to $110s?

This post became more rambling than I initially intended but I’m going to leave it as I have a lot of questions and few answers.

But I am still pretty confident that they’re not buying back contracts to set a price floor.

I agree they don’t care about resale value and don’t use ROfR typically this way.

Typicall a new resort thatgoes on sale doesn’t have an active resale market in existence. So, no need to take them.

PVB is different. It had an active market already and it was on the lower side. So, taking these raised the price so once sales start it’s difference is smaller.

Once they sell the tower I do not see it continuing but the market will be up there and it will take a while to come back down.

 

[OKW Lover]

Wondering if there is anything new about the progress of the building. Although I'm local and drive past the site a couple of times a week, I was away for 2 weeks so I'm a bit behind on the progress.

 

[DduzDis]

Wondering if there is anything new about the progress of the building. Although I'm local and drive past the site a couple of times a week, I was away for 2 weeks so I'm a bit behind on the progress.

The DVCFan group on FB had some good posts on the progress in the last couple of days.

 

[BrianLo]

The only way? You prefer the lobby in the Riviera to the renderings of Poly Tower? You’d rather be close to Caribbean Beach than The Grand Floridian? You wouldn’t want a room or restaurant with a perfectly framed view of the castle, fireworks, the monorail, boats, and the contemporary? Does Riviera have boats that go to a theme park? If the weather gets bad, you’d rather try to get back to Riviera than Poly?

Direct park gates > Skyliner > MK Boats > Walking > Monorail > Friendship Boats > Self-Driving/Uber > Buses

I'll start preparing my funeral.

 

[OKW Lover]

The DVCFan group on FB had some good posts on the progress in the last couple of days.

FWIW, I drove past the site today. I do see progress and like the way the painted exterior is starting to shape up. Still looks like a lot of work yet to be done.

 

[Electron_si]

Direct park gates > Skyliner > MK Boats > Walking > Monorail > Friendship Boats > Self-Driving/Uber > Buses

I'll start preparing my funeral.

I’m a skyliner over everything person as well other than walking. Private cabin and no folding strollers.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Direct park gates > Skyliner > MK Boats > Walking > Monorail > Friendship Boats > Self-Driving/Uber > Buses

I'll start preparing my funeral.

You need to qualify the “walking” for distance, I would put less than .5mi first, but over .5mi after friendship boats…which is I walk from BCV to Epcot but not to DHS.

My order would be Direct park gates > Short Walk > MK Boats > Friendship Boats > Skyliner > Monorail > Self-Driving/Uber > Buses > Long Walk

But I think people who aren’t claustrophobic (or afraid of heights) should put Skyliner ahead of the boats—unless they love boats.

Also, Ubers to the TTC/MK are awful, worse than buses.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Direct park gates > Skyliner > Boats > Walking > Monorail > Self-Driving/Uber > Buses

I'll start preparing my funeral.

Almost my exact preferences. Except I’d do buses before self-driving, I’m a weirdo that doesn’t mind them and I never want to park in any WDW parking lot.

 

[BrianLo]

Almost my exact preferences. Except I’d do buses before self-driving, I’m a weirdo that doesn’t mind them and I never want to park in any WDW parking lot.

Ya I think on more self reflection I'd do uber, then buses, then self-drive. I just haven't self-driven in eternity.

 

[BrianLo]

You need to qualify the “walking” for distance, I would put less than .5mi first, but over .5mi after friendship boats…which is I walk from BCV to Epcot but not to DHS.

I was mostly thinking about transportation and how they interact with all DVC resorts themselves rather than the cash hotels. I'd elevate the monorail itself if you could stay in the main VGF building, for example.

The über short walks are more on the direct gate side of the equation, but those don't really exist at WDW. There's only VGC and I think Beach Club? (VGC is clearly the king of everything). VGF is super pleasant, but a tad far from the main DVC. I think the VDH walk is probably reasonably nice. BLT is a nice and short walk, but it's not a very charming walk heading across the road and behind the buses. Boardwalk is hot, humid and sticky and can be super far. Though the walk to DHS can actually be fairly pleasant.

As is I'm not afraid of heights, a skier in fact and find the continuous loading nature and massive capacity of Skyliner just a treat. The placement at RIV mixed with the drop off at Epcot is just divine. A people mover system would also likely get top marks from me, if it existed.

As it pertains to Poly Tower - it is a bit awkwardly placed. There's a walk to the Monorail more exposed to the elements. The station for MK is reasonable, but for Epcot isn't the best. The walk to MK is rather far. The boat launch is the second stop. I think RIV transport is in fact better and it has its own direct bus system.

 

[BrianLo]

Primarily I think it’s just the direction the market is headed. You’ve got the The Villas at Disneyland Hotel sitting at $239 per point and you have to imagine this product will sell like hotcakes compared to that one no matter the price. I think $250 is the benchmark you set with very limited incentives at first because again - they will have absolutely no problem selling points here. It will be a cash cow for DVC and extremely attractive to new owners.

If I owned Polynesian, I would be strongly tempted to sell my contract and rebuy in 6-12 months.

It seems so transparently obvious to me that the price is going to fall back down again, and a lot

I just wanted to pull your comment out of the ROFR thread to talk about Paul. I've heard you guys talk a lot about the 250 expectation. I think this is largely getting swept up in Disney's (very successful) FOMO move to launch Poly Tower. You are not thinking very long term beyond the first few months of sales.

Disney pricing Poly 25 dollars more a point seems a complete irrational mistake. Which doesn't mean it's not possible for DVD to make a mistake, but it strikes me as incredibly unlikely and out of line with everything they've done before.

There's nothing that special about this resort. I'm personally impressed with the Tower, but this isn't VGF. It is not their signature resort. It is not points limited (in fact it is going to have waaayyy too many points). It is not even theoretically the last MK resort to enter the system.

If they launch at 250, they'll enjoy their triumphant opening sales. Then direct Poly sales will fall off a cliff. The market will wake up the reality there are going to be 9+ million Poly points in the system. Many of which are already being sold as their owners hit the typical resale age of contracts. Everyone will have had their fill. Resale will drop off a cliff back to the 120-140's it belongs. Then they'll struggle eternally not just against Poly resales, but RIV direct. Which is always going to be starting with a 25$ advantage baked in.

We've seen time and time again that price matters most in long term sales. This is not a small product launch, it's a generous (5+ million) bolus of points and nothing warrants it launching above the current market dynamics. I think there would be a much stronger argument if we only had CFW at 225 and VDH at 239 (even then I'd argue it would start at 239). But with RIV in the mix and the market already have tested the strategy with VGF, 225 is the starting price.


BUT, DVD does has a habit of screwing up all of their recent launches. So with that said - maybe they will launch at 250.

 

[CastAStone]

There's nothing that special about this resort. I'm personally impressed with the Tower, but this isn't VGF. It is not their signature resort. It is not points limited (in fact it is going to have waaayyy too many points). It is not even theoretically the last MK resort to enter the system.

Just wait until they announce the rumored Adventureland resort with a direct entrance into the park with an explorers and adventurers theme. Not only is it going to bear more than a passing resemblance to Poly, it will also make Poly the 4th closest resort to MK and the only one of those 4 without a reasonable walk.

 

[Mikey15]

it will also make Poly the 4th closest resort to MK and the only one of those 4 without a reasonable walk.

BPK VGF might be measurably closer to MK, but the walk from the original VGF rooms is very similar to what it’s going to be from Island Tower.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

I’m a skyliner over everything person as well other than walking. Private cabin and no folding strollers.

The no folding strollers is a game changer. And even though technically you don’t have to on the monorail, good luck squeezing on with one.

 

[Kailunkat]

Just wait until they announce the rumored Adventureland resort with a direct entrance into the park with an explorers and adventurers theme. Not only is it going to bear more than a passing resemblance to Poly, it will also make Poly the 4th closest resort to MK and the only one of those 4 without a reasonable walk.

And when that day comes they can have ALL MY MONEY

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I just wanted to pull your comment out of the ROFR thread to talk about Paul. I've heard you guys talk a lot about the 250 expectation. I think this is largely getting swept up in Disney's (very successful) FOMO move to launch Poly Tower. You are not thinking very long term beyond the first few months of sales.

Disney pricing Poly 25 dollars more a point seems a complete irrational mistake. Which doesn't mean it's not possible for DVD to make a mistake, but it strikes me as incredibly unlikely and out of line with everything they've done before.

There's nothing that special about this resort. I'm personally impressed with the Tower, but this isn't VGF. It is not their signature resort. It is not points limited (in fact it is going to have waaayyy too many points). It is not even theoretically the last MK resort to enter the system.

If they launch at 250, they'll enjoy their triumphant opening sales. Then direct Poly sales will fall off a cliff. The market will wake up the reality there are going to be 9+ million Poly points in the system. Many of which are already being sold as their owners hit the typical resale age of contracts. Everyone will have had their fill. Resale will drop off a cliff back to the 120-140's it belongs. Then they'll struggle eternally not just against Poly resales, but RIV direct. Which is always going to be starting with a 25$ advantage baked in.

We've seen time and time again that price matters most in long term sales. This is not a small product launch, it's a generous (5+ million) bolus of points and nothing warrants it launching above the current market dynamics. I think there would be a much stronger argument if we only had CFW at 225 and VDH at 239 (even then I'd argue it would start at 239). But with RIV in the mix and the market already have tested the strategy with VGF, 225 is the starting price.


BUT, DVD does has a habit of screwing up all of their recent launches. So with that said - maybe they will launch at 250.

I agree with a lot of your points but am baffled why you think it’s a mistake. It will be the most desirable new direct points (people’s attachment to Poly, location, unrestricted resale) when it launches so they should get as much as they can from the “buy at any price” demo—the fact that people are buying resale approaching $200 suggests they should try to get at least $215 after incentives for a while.

After the first 3-6 months (or whenever sales slow) they can do bigger incentives, a Black Friday flash sale, move more points to people on cruises, targeted deals to APs, guests at Poly, etc., there’s a lot of selective levers they can pull before eventually offering bigger discounts.

Nothing stops them from decreasing effective prices after sales slow down.