lawboy2001
DVC since 2013 @ BLT and AUL
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2013
It occurred to me today that:
So, it is at least possible that the theme parks will not open for a long time. Cedar Fair, a company that operates mostly seasonal parks (Knott's is year-round, but none of the others are) has extended all of its 2020 Season Passes through the end of 2021. I don't think they do that unless they are writing off most of the 2020 operating season, and that doesn't end in most places until late October.
- It's hard for me to imagine operating the Parks under any form of social distancing.
- Some form of at least intermittent social distancing is likely necessary until herd immunity takes hold.
- Herd immunity isn't going to happen until a vaccine is developed or a sizeable fraction of the population has "earned" immunity by being sick, and probably recently so.
- Most folks are saying a vaccine takes 1.5 years to develop, test, and scale up. Even if we started in January, we are talking mid-Summer 2021.
- Getting everyone sick quickly seems to require over-running our health care system; probably not a good idea.
If the Parks are closed, how many people want to go to WDW? Even a DVC owner might think twice. Yes the lodging is "paid for", but transportation and food aren't.
On the other hand, if the resorts are mothballed for say, six months (or longer), there might be real cost savings in operations and those savings can be passed on in the form of lower dues. Looking at OKW's resort budget, and rounding a bit:
Administration & Front Desk: $0.82
Housekeeping: $1.50
Member Activities: $0.24
Transportation: $1.09
That's almost half of annual Dues. Forgo collection of some capital reserves (because there is no wear-and-tear) and a closure might well result in real savings to Members in the form of rebated/credited Dues. Some of that isn't going to be pure savings, there is probably some administrative work that still has to happen, but there might be other costs that go down to balance that: utilities would go down, and the management fee is a percentage of operating costs IIRC.
So, the question is: would you feel differently about a long term closure with points expiring if (a) the theme parks were closed anyway and (b) you'd get a non-trivial fraction of your dues rebated?
The parks will open, in due course (June, July) and everyone will be required to wear masks. That's how it will work. That's how you get social distancing without being socially distant.