New Disney Ships: News, Rumors, Speculation.....and Names!

[LAS2AMS]

Disney has been fairly slow to do big shake-ups to itineraries.

The best news - years out - comes from Castaway Club parties for Gold+ on the longer cruises.

That’s where Alaska and Bermuda were brought up. Last year, it was talk of South America. A few years from now, Magic or Dream could be sailing South (I doubt the newest ships).

Until Gatun Lake maintains water sufficient for non-essential vessels, I don’t see a good reason to pay for priority lock usage. Yes, other cruises still are doing transits (at least partial).

(Yes, I have said much of this before. Maybe in this thread, even.)

I'll say it again : people who travel DCL primarily want a Disney experience. That means flying into Orlando, visiting WDW for a few days, taking Disney transportation to PC, transiting through the Disney created PC terminal, traveling to Disney created islands, etc. The majority of DCL cruises are 3-5 days and I doubt that will change anytime soon -- for a family of four, most itineraries are priced over $1,000/night and that's about the budget of most folks.

Disney's asking for as much or more per night for summer cruises from PC & FLL than Europe; on most cruise lines, Europe is double. Disney's expenses are going to be lower serving Florida (procurement for a single ship bouncing around Europe is going to be a premium) so little doubt in my mind those cruises are more profitable. IMO Disney continues to serve Europe out of necessity in keeping affluent travelers happy.

IMO, South America is a fantasy. Those are poor countries -- you'd have to rely on people from the USA flying into South America to keep the prices up, and even then Florida would likely be more profitable. There's a good reason there's few cruises from South America .

 

[holula]

No reason to think Disney won't keep sending the Wonder to Alaska. Someone can correct me but I believe she is the only ship that is properly prepared for the Alaska weather.

I think they’ll keep the Wonder in Alaska until they’re ready to retire her, honestly.

 

[Flossbolna]

Do you think the Wonder will still be sailing in Alaska in 2026? I want to get to do that special ship and am planning on Treasure in 2025.... but maybe need to rethink?

The Dream will have a big dry dock this fall. If we see any changes that indicate some “weather proofing” then I would do the Wonder in Alaska in 2025. Otherwise not.

I think the Alaska cruises are actually not that profitable for DCL. My early August cruise last year didn’t sell out despite still being summer. Some of the May and September cruises offer you some of the best deals for a Disney cruise. Yes, balconies are a large step up, by but still I think overall these are no longer the money makers. Those are the 3 and 4 nights on the Wish. Even though I have to think that that market will be saturated at some point…

 

[AquaDame]

The Dream will have a big dry dock this fall. If we see any changes that indicate some “weather proofing” then I would do the Wonder in Alaska in 2025. Otherwise not.

I think the Alaska cruises are actually not that profitable for DCL. My early August cruise last year didn’t sell out despite still being summer. Some of the May and September cruises offer you some of the best deals for a Disney cruise. Yes, balconies are a large step up, by but still I think overall these are no longer the money makers. Those are the 3 and 4 nights on the Wish. Even though I have to think that that market will be saturated at some point…

The problem we have with the Alaska cruises is they turn around at Skagway, have been doing essentially the same itinerary since 2012, and they're relatively expensive comparatively. If they could get a spot at Glacier Bay or do one ways to Anchorage we'd happily sail with them again... but I admit it still wouldn't be a yearly thing the way escaping to warmer climates is for us.

 

[happycamper47]

Juneau has already announced that it will start to limit the number of cruise passengers that will be allowed in starting this year. So there may not be any reason for DCL to start using a larger ship for Alaska.

 

[jujubiee4]

Disney will either:
* replace the Wonder (as is) with the Fantasy OR Dream;
* replace the Wonder with the Fantasy OR Dream, operating Alaska May-Sep, operating San Diego March-April & October, doing Panama Canal each way & operating FLL/PC the rest of the year (and dropping Australia, which won't be surprising when the subsidies run out)

But I doubt we'll see two ships in San Diego again.

Interesting. You think Australia will be discontinued in the future? I always thought they were too short
but wondered if Aussies liked them.

 

[JM_97]

Interesting. You think Australia will be discontinued in the future? I always thought they were too short
but wondered if Aussies liked them.

It depends on how much money they make. I'm interested to see how financially successful (or unsuccessful) the Australian cruises were.

If DCL were to scrap them down the line, I guess they would send the Wonder back to San Diego during those months to do Mexico again? It doesn't make sense to have the Wonder in the Atlantic right now, and there's logistical issues with doing a bunch of round trip cruises to Hawaii.

 

[peder]

Any chance they homeport two ships out of Singapore? If the Adventure does something like 5-night sailings only, would there be a fit for a ship doing 7+ night sailings? I'm guessing the overall market there can't support it, but it is interesting that DCL is making a multi-year commitment with the Adventure in Singapore, and perhaps indicative of their desire to establish that as another sailing "hub".

I realize that I hadn't considered Disney's strategic aim when they announced the multi-year deal with Singapore.

 

[dad of 3 addicted to DCL]

Any chance they homeport two ships out of Singapore? If the Adventure does something like 5-night sailings only, would there be a fit for a ship doing 7+ night sailings? I'm guessing the overall market there can't support it, but it is interesting that DCL is making a multi-year commitment with the Adventure in Singapore, and perhaps indicative of their desire to establish that as another sailing "hub".

I realize that I hadn't considered Disney's strategic aim when they announced the multi-year deal with Singapore.

It's funny, but 5 nights really doesn't get you anywhere from Singapore. Hong Kong is over 1800 nautical miles away. That's a 7 night cruise at max speed with one day in port. Darwin is almost 2400 miles away. Jakarta is only 590 miles, so that's a little over a day (at max speed) each way. They could do Indonesian cruises for 'short' ones, but the big ticket cities (outside of Jakarta) are really out of reach.

That being said, I've zero idea what their business model is. Indonesia's population is over 270M; of course China is much larger. There's a humongous population over their that they're making it easy to cruise Disney. It's possible that the ports don't matter; it's about the ship for them.

eta: Tokyo is 3700+ nautical miles from Singapore. NY to LA by land is 2700 statue miles (a nautical mile is 6000 feet & a statute mile is 5280 feet).

 

[peder]

I've seen a lot of 11-night sailings out of Singapore, but also a few shorter ~5 night ones with--as you mentioned--fairly boring itineraries because they have so far to travel.

That's why I question the entire strategy. I don't think they can fill the Adventure for 11-night sailings, and I suspect they'll keep her sailings shorter. But why commit long-term unless you're planning on building up the ecosystem there? Another ship doing longer sailings might make sense to complement the Adventure.

 

[ljmiii]

That would be very convenient, and the itineraries could do New England, Canada, and Bermuda, which I haven't done but would like to. But when will they retire the ship?

I'm hoping never...since the new ships are absurdly huge. They look like someone parked the top half of the Magic on top of the Dream. But I know the clock is ticking on the Magic and the Wonder.

 

[RedHead0186]

I'm hoping never...since the new ships are absurdly huge. They look like someone parked the top half of the Magic on top of the Dream. But I know the clock is ticking on the Magic and the Wonder.

Really? Compared to other cruise lines, I don't think the newer ships are that larger. Sure, Dream and Fantasy are larger than Magic/Wonder (and Wish/Treasure/Triton only slightly larger than those), but I wouldn't call then 'absurdly' big. Some of those newer ships on other lines, now those are absurdly big to me (and look it!). Guess it's all in perspective, though.

(Intentionally left the Adventure out of that because I do think that one is absurdly large, especially by DCL standards).

 

[Cfabar1]

DCL may has well rename the Adventure the SS Chapek... My understanding is that DCL didn't want the ship and the CEO at the time declared they were buying it because they could get it on the cheap....

I hope the Magic and Wonder keep sailing for a while, but they are quite old.... We have sailed twice on the wish, and will soon be sailing on the Dream... I could potentially see us saying we only sail Magic class ships after our first sailing on the magic....

 

[dad of 3 addicted to DCL]

I build ships for a living nowadays and sailed them for many years before this stage of my career. The prime driver to decommission a ship is the state of her hull, mechanical and electrical systems. The part that we, the customers, see is merely so much surface and does not affect a ship's service life. A bit of rust here and there is easily dispatched. Main propulsion, electrical generation and distribution, and auxiliaries (sewage, fresh water treatment...) can be prohibitively expensive when a ship is at the end of its service life. Regular yard periods were maintenance level repairs/replacements occur can extend a ship's life for quite a long time. 50+ years is not out of the question

 

[happycamper47]

50+ years is not out of the question

The Astoria was over 70 years old.

 

[LAS2AMS]

Interesting. You think Australia will be discontinued in the future? I always thought they were too short
but wondered if Aussies liked them.

I'll bet Disney received an attractive incentive package and once the commitment has been completed, they'll return the ship stateside.

Those are the lowest priced cruises right now. Factor in the 6-week repositioning, and those repositioning cruises selling at bargain rates, I just don't see it lasting.

 

[Cfabar1]

I'll bet Disney received an attractive incentive package and once the commitment has been completed, they'll return the ship stateside.

Those are the lowest priced cruises right now. Factor in the 6-week repositioning, and those repositioning cruises selling at bargain rates, I just don't see it lasting.

I agree... so far the Wonder Down Under seems to have been a flop, but who knows. I am amazed that DCL has been as committed to the European market as it has been so far. So you never know.

 

[LAS2AMS]

I build ships for a living nowadays and sailed them for many years before this stage of my career. The prime driver to decommission a ship is the state of her hull, mechanical and electrical systems. The part that we, the customers, see is merely so much surface and does not affect a ship's service life. A bit of rust here and there is easily dispatched. Main propulsion, electrical generation and distribution, and auxiliaries (sewage, fresh water treatment...) can be prohibitively expensive when a ship is at the end of its service life. Regular yard periods were maintenance level repairs/replacements occur can extend a ship's life for quite a long time. 50+ years is not out of the question

What limits the life of a cruise ship is economics. Like most older, smaller cruise ships, the Magic / Wonder have larger cabins, few balconies and limited space to add activities (specifically those with an upcharge). We've probably already reached the point where replacing these ships, regardless of age, makes financial sense. But DCL has a small, limited fleet and cruise fares are reaching historic highs, so they'll stick around. But when a recession hits, I wouldn't be surprised to see both ships retired to keep fares up.

 

[LAS2AMS]

I agree... so far the Wonder Down Under seems to have been a flop, but who knows. I am amazed that DCL has been as committed to the European market as it has been so far. So you never know.

If I had to guess, I'd guess Disney does it to appease their core base of affluent, frequent cruisers who'd otherwise go to the competition. But just a guess.

 

[Cfabar1]

If I had to guess, I'd guess Disney does it to appease their core base of affluent, frequent cruisers who'd otherwise go to the competition. But just a guess.

You might be right about that, I think it is also that DCL has had a mandate to expand the fleet - keep in mind they will be doubling their fleet pretty rapidly.

That makes me think they are trying to figure out the best places to grow and develop their markets further.

To me, 4-6 ships makes sense for DCL given their niche purpose - keep in mind they were initially created to essentially extend the Disney Bubble to be at sea... Now they are up to 8 ships soon - with the 3 Triton ships and the Adventure all online soon. The DCL team has a lot of work to do to turn this from a niche premium player centered around Florida cruises to a true operator... Time will tell if their positioning, ports, etc. are able to make that happen. To me, it feels like they are a bit overextended, but to your point, when that hits, they are likely to take the Magic & wonder offline, which might help somewhat...