News and Developments for Future In-Person runDisney Events

[GreatLakes]

My understanding with DVC at the moment is due to all the banked points last year they are doing everything they can to get people to use them. I believe you had to book some new cruises using points? I don't have DVC so I don't follow it that closely. I think they would keep the DVC early registration in order to incentivize using those points up.

As for AP I think it depends on what their analytics tell them about the profitability of AP holders over race weekends. If they know AP holders that come to race weekends spend less on average than non-AP guests there is no financial incentive to offer early AP registration where the less profitable customer takes the place of a more profitable customer provided they expect the race to sell out. Personally I think the loyalty of AP holders should be more important than the slight loss in profit but that isn't how Disney works.

 

[jimrpa]

Disney could already have everything coded and ready to go for an update on the webpage, and just need the go ahead to deploy it to the website. We may not see anything different about the website, but that doesn't mean they haven't working on it behind the scenes.

As far as international runners and potential travel restrictions, I could see them perhaps taking a gamble on being able to get to the USA if the race fees were refundable or transferable, but they are not. Would people really take a chance on plunking down potentially hundreds of nonrefundable $$$ on fees for a race they may not be able to enter the country to do? I would say no.

I don’t see why the international runners are so worried? I saw a video of people climbing over the wall with a ladder from Home Depot

 

[BikeFan]

I'm not sure if I'm kicking myself for not signing up for CrD yet or not. I guess we'll see how bad registration is if all goes well...

If a live 2022 Marathon Weekend is announced, it'll be interesting to see how registration goes. Prior to COVID, the marathon/Dopey/Goofy were not selling out for quite a while. I remember signing up for those races as late as November in 2017 and 2018. Heck, Disney was even offering discount codes at race expos. I think the frenzy for 2021 registration was more due to bib limitations than actual demand. If a live marathon race weekend returns for 2022, with normal field size, it'll be interesting to see if the pent-up demand is enough to sell out all events within a few hours.

 

[jimrpa]

My understanding with DVC at the moment is due to all the banked points last year they are doing everything they can to get people to use them. I believe you had to book some new cruises using points? I don't have DVC so I don't follow it that closely. I think they would keep the DVC early registration in order to incentivize using those points up.

As for AP I think it depends on what their analytics tell them about the profitability of AP holders over race weekends. If they know AP holders that come to race weekends spend less on average than non-AP guests there is no financial incentive to offer early AP registration where the less profitable customer takes the place of a more profitable customer provided they expect the race to sell out. Personally I think the loyalty of AP holders should be more important than the slight loss in profit but that isn't how Disney works.

I’m not sure where you’re getting that APs are less profitable than DVC? I’d think that APs that are staying in a Disney Resort are more valuable. Consider that Disney has already gotten their up-front cost for the points that a DVC pays to buy in, and they’re only getting maintenance fees going forward. With guests at the resort hotels they’re getting significantly above market nightly room rates. Sure, some out of town APs don’t stay on property, but I’d bet the majority of the ones doing races do. I can’t imagine staying off-property and trying to get to the start at oh-dark-thirty. Ugh.

 

[Z-Knight]

I'm not sure if I'm kicking myself for not signing up for CrD yet or not. I guess we'll see how bad registration is if all goes well...

you cant sign up now anyway, even if you wanted

 

[PrincessV]

Oh, I know there are still APs around - I'm one of them, lol! But a LOT of former APs canceled or didn't renew over the past year. And - this is a much bigger discussion going on other places - I'm not convinced the AP program as we know it is coming back. I hope it does, but I'm not at all sure. And if it's not, that would make an AP early registration complicated. I wouldn't be surprised that if rD is basically ready to bring back races, it's in a wait&hold position while WDW figures out the AP thing.

 

[1lilspark]

FWIW we are AP live 45-75 mins from the parks depending on traffic and RD weekends we go all out staying on property (vs day trips or staying off property at Marriott on other stays) plus we do at least one nicer meal that weekend and spend a bunch on race merchandise

 

[augrad1993]

There are certainly no guarantees, but it would be quite a slap in the face of AP holders who have stayed the course and maintained their APs through this difficult time just to have that benefit cut off as things are returning to normal. It would certainly be the end of my AP holding days as an out of state AP.

Agreed. I'm an out of state AP holder; purchased an AP for my daughter and myself in December 2019. Perfect timing, huh? (we did squeeze in 4 trips, 2 with masks lol, so at least I did get my money's worth) In 2018 I ran a couple of half marathons, and I had a kidney transplant. A full marathon has been on my bucket list, and I want it to be the Disney Marathon, and the goal was the 2021 race. I had a bib for it, but asked for a refund because a virtual was not what I had in mind lol. The sole reason I renewed this dang AP is for the benefit of early registration. So yeah...frustrated, heartbroken, raging mad are a few emotions I imagine I'll have if this benefit is not extended to AP holders.

 

[GreatLakes]

I’m not sure where you’re getting that APs are less profitable than DVC? I’d think that APs that are staying in a Disney Resort are more valuable. Consider that Disney has already gotten their up-front cost for the points that a DVC pays to buy in, and they’re only getting maintenance fees going forward. With guests at the resort hotels they’re getting significantly above market nightly room rates. Sure, some out of town APs don’t stay on property, but I’d bet the majority of the ones doing races do. I can’t imagine staying off-property and trying to get to the start at oh-dark-thirty. Ugh.

I never said APs were less profitable than DVC, I said they were less profitable than regular, non-AP guests. If Disney wasn't trying all they can do to get people to use points I wouldn't think they would have financial incentives to give them early registration either but that isn't where they are at.

I know Disney has flat out stated that AP holders in CA are less profitable than non-AP guests and some moves they have made over the years seems to indicate that is also true in FL but I suspect the gap is closer.

 

[Krandor]

I never said APs were less profitable than DVC, I said they were less profitable than regular, non-AP guests. If Disney wasn't trying all they can do to get people to use points I wouldn't think they would have financial incentives to give them early registration either but that isn't where they are at.

I know Disney has flat out stated that AP holders in CA are less profitable than non-AP guests and some moves they have made over the years seems to indicate that is also true in FL but I suspect the gap is closer.

Chapek in the last call said AP holders were less profitable then regular guests.

 

[BikeFan]

Chapek in the last call said AP holders were less profitable then regular guests.

I wonder where DVC members are in the profitability scale. Regardless, being both a DVC owner and an occasional AP holder, I can definitely say I've spent more cumulatively over 20+ trips in the past 20 years than I otherwise would've had I not been part of those groups. It'd be interesting to see how all those numbers break down over an extended period. A regular guest may spend more per visit, but not visit as often, whereas an AP holder may visit more often, but spend less. Over time, which person is more profitable? I've read that Disney's analytics are quite advanced, but of course they're probably not sharing a lot of that information. It'd be a fascinating read!

 

[Krandor]

I wonder where DVC members are in the profitability scale. Regardless, being both a DVC owner and an occasional AP holder, I can definitely say I've spent more cumulatively over 20+ trips in the past 20 years than I otherwise would've had I not been part of those groups. It'd be interesting to see how all those numbers break down over an extended period. A regular guest may spend more per visit, but not visit as often, whereas an AP holder may visit more often, but spend less. Over time, which person is more profitable? I've read that Disney's analytics are quite advanced, but of course they're probably not sharing a lot of that information. It'd be a fascinating read!

And that is an interesting thing. I'll switch gears a bit but it is similar. AMC theaters has a program where you can pay around $20/month and see up to 3 movies a week. When they talked about profitability of A-List members they said that on a per-visit basis A-List members spend less on concessions because they go more often and don't get concessions every visit but on a per-month basis they spend more money due to coming more often.

I'd expect AP is similar. Less per-visit but more overall.

 

[The Expert]

IIRC, I think @The Expert has Club RunDisney. Maybe she can comment?

I'm a Silver member, since I'm already AP and DVC, both of which get me early registration access. I've heard nothing from CrD since they extended memberships another year sometime in early fall. Not a peep!

 

[Barca33Runner]

Worried isn’t the right word, because I’m really not all that fussed about getting signed up for the first races back necessarily, but I’m curious what they might do for Club runDisney people on the first races back since it’s been pretty devoid of benefits to this point. I can’t really imagine that anyone has been too happy with that investment so far and they might need to shine a spotlight on the benefits if they want people to renew or want more people to buy in.

 

[jimrpa]

I’d be interested to see the total annual spend of someone who goes to Disney and stays on property say once every 4-5 years, versus me, as an annual pass holder from out of state, who makes multiple trips per year. Admittedly, I’m not staying at a Disney resort, and I’m not buying $100s of merch EVERY time I go down, but I’ll bet I’m generating more revenue on an annual basis than that person for whom Disney is a once in a lifetime or maybe once every several years trip.

 

[Barca33Runner]

I’d be interested to see the total annual spend of someone who goes to Disney and stays on property say once every 4-5 years, versus me, as an annual pass holder from out of state, who makes multiple trips per year. Admittedly, I’m not staying at a Disney resort, and I’m not buying $100s of merch EVERY time I go down, but I’ll bet I’m generating more revenue on an annual basis than that person for whom Disney is a once in a lifetime or maybe once every several years trip.

Chapek makes, approximately, infinity times more money than I do so I would hope he realizes there are benefits to both (any/all) types of customers. I know I spent more on an annual basis at Disney when I was an AP for a couple years than the years I haven’t been. I also realize that their ideal customer is the once or twice a year, stay on property, do all the things, never leave the bubble, buy all the souvenirs, eat at all the Disney restaurant family of ten.

They can’t fill the parks, restaurants, resorts to the level they want them with any singular group of customers but I do think that they have the second group I described above heavily targeted/prioritized under Chapek. I expect that while APs and such will continue that they will always push the envelope on pricing and perks to keep the number of AP, DVC, etc. right in the windows that their analytics deem optimal.

 

[camaker]

I’d be interested to see the total annual spend of someone who goes to Disney and stays on property say once every 4-5 years, versus me, as an annual pass holder from out of state, who makes multiple trips per year. Admittedly, I’m not staying at a Disney resort, and I’m not buying $100s of merch EVERY time I go down, but I’ll bet I’m generating more revenue on an annual basis than that person for whom Disney is a once in a lifetime or maybe once every several years trip.

I think we’re looking at this from the wrong perspective. There’s no doubt that over the course of multiple trips per year, you’re spending more than one single trip visitor. What I think is happening is that Disney’s attendance numbers (at least pre-COVID) are high enough that they’re trying to figure out how to replace your 4-5 visits as an individual with 4-5 collective visits by other guests who spend more per trip.

As a business with a finite capacity, once you reach a certain portion of that capacity, the best option for increasing revenue is to figure out how to increase per-visitor spending. In a sense, your 4-5 lower spend visits are actually hurting Disney if they have the customer base to replace them.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

I’d be interested to see the total annual spend of someone who goes to Disney and stays on property say once every 4-5 years, versus me, as an annual pass holder from out of state, who makes multiple trips per year. Admittedly, I’m not staying at a Disney resort, and I’m not buying $100s of merch EVERY time I go down, but I’ll bet I’m generating more revenue on an annual basis than that person for whom Disney is a once in a lifetime or maybe once every several years trip.

Our pattern has been to get APs every other year. We spend 30-60 days in the park on our AP years and maybe 7 (usually tied to rD races) in the other years. No question that we spend far more during our AP years at WDW than our non-AP years.

 

[BikeFan]

I think we’re looking at this from the wrong perspective. There’s no doubt that over the course of multiple trips per year, you’re spending more than one single trip visitor. What I think is happening is that Disney’s attendance numbers (at least pre-COVID) are high enough that they’re trying to figure out how to replace your 4-5 visits as an individual with 4-5 collective visits by other guests who spend more per trip.

As a business with a finite capacity, once you reach a certain portion of that capacity, the best option for increasing revenue is to figure out how to increase per-visitor spending. In a sense, your 4-5 lower spend visits are actually hurting Disney if they have the customer base to replace them.

Granted, they have a finite capacity, but how often are they reaching it? Pre-COVID, I thought that was relatively rare. I've heard of Magic Kingdom reaching capacity on certain days, like Christmas Day and July 4th, but generally, my understanding was the parks were not at 100% capacity the vast majority of the time. As for the resorts, I don't remember ever not being able to find a room somewhere, but I've generally booked early anyway. Of course, this is just anecdotal and hearsay evidence, not actual hard facts, so perhaps they're hitting max capacity far more than I realize.

 

[camaker]

Granted, they have a finite capacity, but how often are they reaching it? Pre-COVID, I thought that was relatively rare. I've heard of Magic Kingdom reaching capacity on certain days, like Christmas Day and July 4th, but generally, my understanding was the parks were not at 100% capacity the vast majority of the time. As for the resorts, I don't remember ever not being able to find a room somewhere, but I've generally booked early anyway. Of course, this is just anecdotal and hearsay evidence, not actual hard facts, so perhaps they're hitting max capacity far more than I realize.

I don’t think they have to be at 100% capacity to trigger this kind of approach. My guess is that their analytics have identified an attendance number at which driving more total visits (as AP programs encourage) delivers diminishing returns compared to programs that drive up spend/visitor.